Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Poll: Bush in Strong Position With Voters (Update)
San Diego Union-Tribune ^ | 01/09/04 | Will Lester (A.P.)

Posted on 01/09/2004 1:31:18 PM PST by Holly_P

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bolstered by lopsided backing from core supporters, President Bush is in a stronger position with voters than his father or Bill Clinton were at the same stage of their re-election bids, an Associated Press poll found.

Men, evangelicals and rural voters are supporting Bush by big margins at the start of this election year, while traditionally Democratic-leaning groups such as women have more divided loyalties, according to the poll. The public's growing confidence in the economy is helping boost Bush's standing as well.

More people say they will definitely vote for Bush's re-election, 41 percent, than say they will definitely vote against him, 33 percent, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs. An additional 24 percent said they would consider voting for someone else.

"I can't imagine not voting for Bush," said William Miller, a 66-year-old retiree from Hartsville, S.C., who calls himself a political independent. "I'm very glad he was in office on 9-11. I feel like he's got a good handle on what we have to do in the international arena, and his economic polices seem to be coming around."

On the question of re-electing Bush or definitely voting for someone else, men were for Bush by 49 percent to 26 percent. And rural voters were for him by an equally lopsided margin. White evangelicals said they would support Bush rather than vote for someone else by an even wider margin.

Bush is in significantly better shape with the public than either Clinton or the first President Bush were at this stage in their re-election bids and about the same as Ronald Reagan before his landslide re-election victory in 1984.

People were about evenly divided on Clinton and the elder Bush at this stage of their presidencies.

On the current president's re-election, 39 percent of women said they would definitely vote for someone else and 35 percent said they would vote for Bush.

Elizabeth Born, who's raising her son in Portland, Ore., said she's very unhappy with Bush.

"I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

In the AP-Ipsos poll, Bush had a 49 percent to 42 percent lead over Wesley Clark and bigger margins when matched against several other Democratic candidates. He led Howard Dean by 54-39 percent, John Kerry by 54-37 and Dick Gephardt by 56-35.

Bush's job approval in the poll was 56 percent after a boost last month following the capture of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. Six in 10 approve of his handling of foreign policy and terrorism.

More than half, 53 percent, approve of his handling of the economy.

The AP-Ipsos poll of 1,000 adults, including 774 registered voters, was taken Jan. 5-7 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; bubbavote; christianvote; evangelicals; gwb2004; malevote; polls

1 posted on 01/09/2004 1:31:19 PM PST by Holly_P
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/commentary.html#1_9_03_0823

TAKING A SECOND LOOK: Adam Nagourney and Carl Hulse suggest in today's NY Times that a number of Iowa Democrats are reevaluting their initial support of Howard Dean:

Still, in dozens of conversations with voters across central Iowa over the past three days, it became clear that some Democrats are taking a second look at the doctor from Vermont whose candidacy has transformed the Democratic presidential contest.

Such qualms could benefit Senator John Edwards of North Carolina and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. Both were often mentioned by voters as strong alternatives to Dr. Dean.

It looks like there might be the tiniest bit of support for this theory in one of the two new polls released out of Iowa yesterday. SurveyUSA has Kerry and Edwards improving a couple of ticks from their previous position and Dean sliding just a bit, but it's really hard to say.

If there is in fact a reevaluation of Dean taking place among voters it will certainly be helped along by two other items in the news this morning. The first is this story, which reports that while appearing on a Canadian television show in 2000 discussing politics, Dean described the Iowa caucuses as a "waste of time" and "dominated by the special interests." It will be interesting to see Mr. "I Just Tell It Like It Is" do damage control on this one, and it may cause a few more defections to Kerry or Edwards.

The other story of note is the new AP-Ipsos poll out this morning with the following head-to-head numbers:

Bush 54%, Dean 39%
Bush 54%, Kerry 37%
Bush 56%, Gephardt 35%
Bush 49%, Clark 42%

It's the second poll this week showing Dean getting absolutely shellacked by the President in a head-to-head match up. Clark's strength against Bush relative to the rest of the field should keep the "reevaluation process" of Dean in motion around the country.

But it also presents a special dilemma for some Iowans. If you're a Clark supporter in Iowa (the KCCI poll released yesterday showed 3% support for Clark though it could be more than that) or if you're a pragmatic undecided who is concerned first and foremost with beating George W. Bush in November and it's looking more and more like Clark might be your party's best bet, who do you cast your vote for on January 19?

I suspect the answer is you throw your lot in with Gephardt and try to knock Dean off in Iowa and hope that leads to a really strong showing for Clark in New Hampshire eight days later.

2 posted on 01/09/2004 1:33:11 PM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All
Rank Location Receipts Donors/Avg Freepers/Avg Monthlies
27 Arkansas 260.00
10
26.00
120
2.17
50.00
4

Thanks for donating to Free Republic!

Move your locale up the leaderboard!

3 posted on 01/09/2004 1:35:10 PM PST by Support Free Republic (I'd rather be sleeping. Let's get this over with so I can go back to sleep!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
"I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

Such stupid vanity. It gets so tiring. Why are these scumwads so worried about what other people think of us? We should be more concerned about doing what is right, and looking out for our own. The President is constitutionally charged with protecting the lives of American citizens. Going after those who have baldly stated that they want to kill us is certainly a justifiable priority.

4 posted on 01/09/2004 1:35:26 PM PST by chimera
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
"Men, evangelicals and rural voters are supporting Bush by big margins at the start of this election year....

I'll certainly vote for W unless some conservative beats him in the primary.

I'm not at all happy at the way he tries to out-democRAT the democRATs!

5 posted on 01/09/2004 1:37:31 PM PST by nightdriver
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: finnman69
Clark is surging in NH and everywhere else. He will be the nominee.
6 posted on 01/09/2004 1:38:41 PM PST by Solson (Our work is the presentation of our capabilities. - Von Goethe)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
Looks good bump!
7 posted on 01/09/2004 1:46:08 PM PST by Az Joe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
Elizabeth Born, who's raising her son in Portland, Ore., said she's very unhappy with Bush. "I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

No offense to the right thinking women on FR, but I wonder if we can push to repeal the 19th Amendment.

8 posted on 01/09/2004 1:46:08 PM PST by My2Cents ("Well....there you go again...")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Solson
"Clark is surging in NH and everywhere else. He will be the nominee."

In which case, HRC will be the vice-presidential nominee?

9 posted on 01/09/2004 1:46:34 PM PST by Maria S ("I will do whatever the Americans want…I saw what happened in Iraq, and I was afraid." Gaddafi, 9/03)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: finnman69
Bush 49%, Clark 42%

Probably the same damned 42% who voted for Clinton in 1992.

10 posted on 01/09/2004 1:47:24 PM PST by My2Cents ("Well....there you go again...")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
"I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

I am so sick of women like this who spend so much of their time and energy worrying about how other people feel about them. I wish the media would come to me for a quote. I could give a rat's ass what France and Germany think of us, as long as the Prez keeps us safe.

11 posted on 01/09/2004 1:47:27 PM PST by Jodi (Real men prefer Bush!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: chimera
She, and every other American, should be thrilled that the scum of the earth don't like us.
12 posted on 01/09/2004 1:49:06 PM PST by My2Cents ("Well....there you go again...")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Maria S
Nah, Dean will be the Veep. They need his war chest for the general election.

Hillary will take over as Senate Minority Leader for Daschle.

Clark will vow to only serve one term because he wants to be the "outsider" candidate. Thus, if by some freak of nature Clark wins, he sets it up for Hillary in 2008.

13 posted on 01/09/2004 1:49:25 PM PST by Solson (Our work is the presentation of our capabilities. - Von Goethe)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: My2Cents
I wonder if we can push to repeal the 19th Amendment.

Sure. While we are fine tuning the constitution, lets add an amendment making abortion retroactive.

14 posted on 01/09/2004 1:49:50 PM PST by Holly_P
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Jodi
"I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

Two words......who cares! Had to come to the Peoples Republic to find this quote! He will carry Oregon!

Pray for W and The Truth

15 posted on 01/09/2004 1:54:10 PM PST by bray (The Wicked Witch of NY and Her 9 Flying Monkeys are Falling!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
...while traditionally Democratic-leaning groups such as women...

Single women, yes, but don't married women tilt Republican?

16 posted on 01/09/2004 1:54:11 PM PST by Yardstick
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
If Bush was at 99.999999% favorable, the press would find one woman to quote who hated him. How about a quote that has something to do with the story, rather than unending "reporter prejudice" quotes?

On the current president's re-election, 39 percent of women said they would definitely vote for someone else and 35 percent said they would vote for Bush. Elizabeth Born, who's raising her son in Portland, Ore., said she's very unhappy with Bush.

17 posted on 01/09/2004 1:54:38 PM PST by GOPJ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
I'd support a constitutional amendment which protects Americans' right to shoot first and ask questions later.
18 posted on 01/09/2004 1:56:55 PM PST by My2Cents ("Well....there you go again...")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Solson
Clark will vow to only serve one term because he wants to be the "outsider" candidate. Thus, if by some freak of nature Clark wins, he sets it up for Hillary in 2008.

He may say that now, but once he's the President, he might not be quite as controllable (I don't think he'll get elected, just hypothetical musing here).

BTW, whatever happened to Carol Mosely Braun? Her web site's still up, but I've heard more out of Jimmy Hoffa than her for the last month.

19 posted on 01/09/2004 1:57:26 PM PST by Richard Kimball
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
Bump!
20 posted on 01/09/2004 1:57:37 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: finnman69
But does this mean that Bush is going to take any delegates to the Democrat National Convention?

Could happen, you know. If ya can't lick 'em, join 'em.

George W. Bush, nominated as candidate for President on the Democrat ticket. In the voting booth, vote for Bush the Republican, or Bush the Democrat.

Well, what the heck? As long as we are talking about parallel universes....
21 posted on 01/09/2004 1:58:47 PM PST by alloysteel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
"I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

Hmmmm. Thats one of the many things that endears me to him. US Foreign Policy shouldnt be based on the Worlds opinion of us. Thats how Clinton governed.

22 posted on 01/09/2004 2:00:57 PM PST by cardinal4 (Hillary and Clark rhymes with Ft Marcy park...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Holly_P
And why not? President Bush represents the cure for the near fatal disease of decadence that afflicts the West. The reason he represents the cure, aside from his considerable personal qualities, is that he is the quintessence of the American Heartland, and the Heartland is the greatest, the healthiest, and the strongest bastion of Western Civilization in the world today--still ascendant--and is itself the cure.

President Bush and the American Heartland will drag the "Liberal" slugs of the decadent "Liberal" enclaves of America, Europe, and outlying regions, kicking and screaming, into the coming Renaissance, whether they like it or not!

"Those who will the gods will lead, and those who won't they'll drag."

They hate The Hero, who has come to lead them out of the darkness of decadence and into the light--such is the nature of their sickness--but he'll lead them nevertheless, in spite of themselves.

23 posted on 01/09/2004 2:10:16 PM PST by Savage Beast (The delusional hate truth. It threatens the delusions. They also hate the bearers of truth.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: chimera
"Why are these scumwads so worried about what other people think of us?"

Because they are stupid.

24 posted on 01/09/2004 2:14:58 PM PST by Savage Beast (The delusional hate truth. It threatens the delusions. They also hate the bearers of truth.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Solson
I hope he's not dumb enough to choose Hillary for vice president.
25 posted on 01/09/2004 2:16:28 PM PST by Savage Beast (The delusional hate truth. It threatens the delusions. They also hate the bearers of truth.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Jodi
Amen!!!!!
26 posted on 01/09/2004 2:48:54 PM PST by cubreporter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: My2Cents; finnman69; Holly_P
There is no way to objectively determine if the results of any poll are genuinely accurate for the population as a whole. All that can be said objectively is that any given poll MAY be accurate within its sample population for the questions asked, in the order asked, on the day and time asked. Therefore, I always am skeptical of polls, whether or not they are positive for my candidate or issue.

That said, Gephardt's best chance to advance his candidacy is to win Iowa. Anything less, and his candidacy is almost certainly doomed. The media will feed the "expectations" game with Dean and Clark, saying Dean didn't win by enough (if he wins), and Clark "did better than expected" if he comes in 3rd or better. Real votes don't matter to the media except insofar as they can manipulate public perceptions of the results.

I'm certain other FReepers have noticed that Clark is CNN's favorite candidate. He also seems to be the favorite of some NBC luminaries like Couric. He seems to fill the same role for the media this year as John McCain filled in 2000 — the dark-horse candidate who adds a dramatic plot-line to the early presidential primary season.

27 posted on 01/09/2004 3:06:48 PM PST by Wolfstar (George W. Bush — the 1st truly great world leader of the 21st Century)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Wolfstar
the dark-horse candidate who adds a dramatic plot-line to the early presidential primary season.

Clark is the "dark-horse's ass" candidate. I agree that the media loves manipulating the thinking of the "stoopid" wing of the electorate. Bill Clinton lost in NH in '92, but the media proclaimed his finish a "moral victory," and anointed him as the candidate with "momentum." The way the media robs the majority of voters of their choice and the significance of their vote is offensive.

You're right, of course, about the way the media spins and promotes poll findings. I remember Chris Matthews still citing an LA Times poll of the recall election showing Bustamante a couple of points ahead of Arnold, even AFTER two other more recent polls came out showing Arnold with a comfortable lead over Bustamante. These polls have one purpose: as propaganda fodder for the media. This is why I think it's delicious when, say, a CNN poll, or an ABC poll comes out showing Bush increasing his lead over all candidates, or support for our effort in Iraq growing. It leaves the media with little to spin. It's like they spent all that money to conduct a poll, and the results blew up in their faces.

Another point on opinion surveys -- As a statistician friend told me recently, "If you bludgeon the data long enough, you can make it confess to anything."

28 posted on 01/09/2004 3:36:52 PM PST by My2Cents ("Well....there you go again...")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: My2Cents
If you bludgeon the data long enough, you can make it confess to anything.

Wonderful, concise way to put it. If you also bludgeon the people enough...it's no accident that polls immediately after an event say one thing, while polls about that same event some time afterwards say something entirely different. Marketing and public relations works. What passes for "news" and "entertainment" these days, is little more than marketing for Leftist dogma.

29 posted on 01/09/2004 5:49:35 PM PST by Wolfstar (George W. Bush — the 1st truly great world leader of the 21st Century)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson