Bush Pulls Off Shrewd Stroke (Immigration strategery is a coup de main)

The United Press International ^ | January 8, 2004 | Martin Sieff

[quidnunc]

President George W. Bush's proposed immigration reform plan may prove to be a masterstroke from a maestro political strategist playing at the top of his game. It may backfire on him, but it probably won't.

The reform plan has already provoked strong attacks from Democrats and Latino activists who say it does not go far enough and the critical voices have been particularly loud in crucial California. It will also increase strains the president's policies have already generated in the Rocky Mountain libertarian West, his archrival John McCain's stronghold in the 2000 Republican primary race.

But at the end of the day, unless the two huge decisive issues of the economy and national security turn catastrophically sour on the president, these critiques will probably bounce off him like any criticism off the Teflon back of Ronald Reagan.

-snip-

[quidnunc]

Quote:

Instead, the measure will likely confirm the high comfort level that at least one-third the active voters in California displayed toward the president and his party just a few months ago. It springboards on the Schwarzenegger victory to secure a powerful GOP base within the Hispanic community for the presidential election. Because, if the president gets California, the election is a lock for Bush — whomever the Democratic nominee is and however well that nominee does anywhere else.

-snip-

Finally, the president's initiative is a classic example of the strategic "proactive" or "offense" politics that he and adviser Karl Rove love to practice. As well as playing excellent defense politics, the GOP's dynamic duo revels in winning major support from core constituencies of their flailing opponents.

And still they keep misunderestimating Dubya.

[Support Free Republic]

[MJY1288]

Get your Nomex Jammies ready, because the "Hunt-em Down an Deport-em" crowd will be here in a minute to roast your arse :-)

[Paleo Conservative]

(Immigration strategery is a coup de main)

How is this immigration "reform" is a surprise. President Bush was talking about it prior to 9/11/01.

[Torie]

Sort of like warm milk for a dyspeptic child. The idea that Rove meant this puppy to be DOA from the get-go, and just a pacifier for target Hispanic voters, while not damaging otherwise because others would know it was DOA, is rather cynical, and I am not subscribing to it. That is how it will work out perhaps however. The dynamics to leave the status quo in place are powerful indeed, and not easily inched off their inevitable trajectory.

[quidnunc]

MJY1288 wrote:

Get your Nomex Jammies ready, because the "Hunt-em Down an Deport-em"crowd will be here in a minute to roast your arse :-)

It won't be the first time and they won't be getting any cherry.

I was tempered in the flame wars of the late '90s.

[Zipporah]

"Right now, conservatives there have nowhere else to go.".. and that is why Bush has taken conservatives for granted. He's banking that they will still vote for him even though this proposal is not in the best interest of the US..

[MJY1288]

As long as there is a penalty of some kind for those who came here illegally and some serious penalties for anyone who hires an illegal in the future, I have no problem with this proposal, just as long as the temporary status doesn't get turned into direct green card status.

I hear there will be a $1,500.00 fine for each applicant who broke our laws. IMHO that is justice served. Border jumpers only get a slap on the wrist now, and if every on of them who sign up have a job and can prove they can support themselves, I think this isn't a bad deal. But to me the most important part is to make sure there is stiff penalties for those who hire illegals, I mean like seizing all their assets and jailing them.

[Pubbie]

"The dynamics to leave the status quo in place are powerful indeed, and not easily inched off their inevitable trajectory."

I largely agree.

If I had to guess, I think the plan will either fail or be greatly watered down.

In reality, The Big Business contributors to the GOP (Despite common wisdom) Do NOT want the illegals to become Guest workers because then they will have to pay them minimum wage, and then that cheap immigrant labor won't be so cheap anymore.

Personally, I would prefer the status quo over any major changes.changes

[RLK]

"Right now, conservatives there have nowhere else to go.".. and that is why Bush has taken conservatives for granted. He's banking that they will still vote for him even though this proposal is not in the best interest of the US..

---------------------

And they'll be stupid enough to vote for him.

[MJY1288]

Big Business will love this plan, they pay them minimum wage or better. It's the Bean Farmer, Construction Contarctor and Land Scapers who paid them under the table that will not like this deal, they will have to treat them like a regular employee's and unless they pay them as Sub-Contractors, they will have to cover them with workmans comp, and collect Fed 941 taxes and state and local taxes and collect and match their FICA taxes

[McGavin999]

No, he just knows that a certain type of conservative stayed home in the 2000 election and he's learned he can't count on them. Staying home in the 2004 election will be nothing new to them.

I've been following the threads on immigration and the deliberate misinterpretation of the plan means that either they are a) not really conservatives or b) didn't bother to vote in the 2000 election either.

I have no problem with those who understand the plan but still don't like it. I do have a problem with those who twist the plan into something that it's not.

[Paleoguy]

"But at the end of the day, unless the two huge decisive issues of the economy and national security turn catastrophically sour on the president, these critiques will probably bounce off him like any criticism off the Teflon back of Ronald Reagan. "

If this is so..why bother with the atrocity that is this amnesty bill? Why capitulate to massive lawbreaking and set America up for even more waves of illegal immigration? Why offend your political base with something that they overwhelmingly oppose? And even if it is a political coup, where does principle figure in? What about the fact that it is just plain wrong to reward people for breaking into our country...regardless of the political benefits to be derived?

[inkling]

The reason this is such a shrewd political move is that it pits two strong Democratic groups against each other. The unions are appalled and think it goes way too far; the leftist minority lobbies think it's good, but doesn't go nearly far enough. It will be fascinating to watch the Dims try to figure out how to pander to both groups on this. Any way they move, they'll seriously piss off a lot of their base.

[lonewacko_dot_com]

To judge by some of the comments I've seen here and elsewhere, Bush's proposal has not met with a big warm hug from many of his potential voters. It's not true that people who voted for him last time have no where to go. There's always just not voting.

BTW, an email for UPI is: tips@upi.com

[Zipporah]

Now.. explain how the plan is being "twisted"..

[MJY1288]

"I have no problem with those who understand the plan but still don't like it. I do have a problem with those who twist the plan into something that it's not."

BINGO... And it's usually the ones who start the name calling who twist it

[Zipporah]

..you are exactly right. (as I've posted before).. The problem is that the consequences are an interminable series of compromises which results in oblivion. The Republican party is not a populus party at all, the GOP knows that the common Republican will always vote for a Republican for there is no alternative. IF Republican constituents expressed their displeasure at this circumstance, by voting for a presidential alternative, this would not be the case...

[Paul C. Jesup]

Big Business will love this plan, they pay them minimum wage or better. It's the Bean Farmer, Construction Contarctor and Land Scapers who paid them under the table that will not like this deal, they will have to treat them like a regular employee's and unless they pay them as Sub-Contractors, they will have to cover them with workmans comp, and collect Fed 941 taxes and state and local taxes and collect and match their FICA taxes

(sarcasm) Lets forget what has lead to this; IRS, EPA, OSHA and lawyers and just push small businesses in bankrupcy, like it is goes to actually help the country.

[Pubbie]

"Big Business will love this plan, they pay them minimum wage or better."

No they won't because they will have to pay for Worker's comp and other perks they wouldn't have to if they stayed Illegal.

Minimum wage is just the beginning.