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Zogby: Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative
zogby.com ^ | January 20, 2004 | zogby

Posted on 01/20/2004 9:11:14 AM PST by KQQL

As Democrats Vote in Iowa and New Hampshire, President Bush Looks Vulnerable in Both His Re-Elect and Face-Off with Generic Democrat; Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative; Democrats Lead Over Republicans in Congressional Generic, New Zogby International Poll Reveals

President George W. Bush’s job performance has dropped since mid- December, while his vulnerability increases when matched against an unnamed Democrat or when respondents are asked if he should be re-elected.

The most recent Zogby America poll of 1000 likely voters chosen at random was conducted January 15-18, 2004 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population.Margins are higher in sub-groups.

Bush Job Performance Positive% Negative %

January 15-18, 2004 49 50

Nearly two in five (41%) would vote for Bush, while 45% would opt to support an unnamed Democrat over Bush. In December polling, Bush held a slight edge over a generic Democrat. Nearly one in eight are unsure or prefer another choice.

Date Bush % Any Democrat %

January 15-18, 2004 41 45

Pollster John Zogby: “The country is clearly divided just as it was during the 2000 election. According to the O’Leary/Zogby Red & Blue State Monitor, a plurality of Red State voters (Bush 2000) voters believe the country is headed in the right direction (49%), while 38% say it’s the wrong direction. In the Blue States (Gore 2000) 46% think the country is headed in the wrong direction while 41% say it’s the right direction. In both Red and Blue States (13%) a similar number unsure

(Excerpt) Read more at zogby.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: polls; zogby
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1 posted on 01/20/2004 9:11:14 AM PST by KQQL
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To: Pubbie; Torie; ambrose
#
2 posted on 01/20/2004 9:11:44 AM PST by KQQL (^@__*^)
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To: KQQL
Looks like Zogby is bringing out the "Special Sauce" early this election.
3 posted on 01/20/2004 9:12:49 AM PST by Mad Dawgg (French: old Europe word meaning surrender)
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To: Mad Dawgg
Zogby...the pollster with an agenda....the Toon booster.
4 posted on 01/20/2004 9:14:24 AM PST by jwfiv
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To: KQQL
Zogby keeps racing into irrelevance.

Dec 03' Iowa Poll by Zogby: Dean: 26%, Gephardt 22%, Kerry 9%, Edwards 5%

5 posted on 01/20/2004 9:14:25 AM PST by Naspino (You might be conservative -- but are you a patriot?)
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To: KQQL
Nearly two in five (41%) would vote for Bush

LOL, these mathematical geniuses at it again? Is this the new "Zogby" math?

6 posted on 01/20/2004 9:14:36 AM PST by KellyAdmirer
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To: KQQL
Understandable. Right now we have the Dem candidates vying for the nomination. They are getting their message out multiplied by eight now. Bush bashing is getting the biggest megaphone. Once the Dems have a candidate and Bush starts to get his campaign reved up, things will change. Until then, the dems are the only game in town for the media to cover.
7 posted on 01/20/2004 9:14:37 AM PST by kabar
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To: KQQL
Timed for tonight's State of the Union Address. Gives the media a way to discount whatever he says.
8 posted on 01/20/2004 9:14:52 AM PST by Rightone
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To: KQQL
Odd, I have just posted consecutive polls in NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK, CALIFORNIA, PENNSYLVANIA and MICHIGAN, and in each case Bush as in the mid-50% approval (63% in MICHIGAN!) Now, if Bush is in the mid 50s to mid-60s in the blue states [!], does ol' Zogs really want us to believe that nationally he is doing worse?

I think not. Every polling # we have shows that despite comments here at FR, Bush gets over 90% of the GOP vote. So who the hell is Zogs polling?

9 posted on 01/20/2004 9:15:12 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: KQQL
It will not be a cakewalk with the dead, braindead, leechs, women and scam artists making up a large portion of the electorate. Easily led by the media they are.
10 posted on 01/20/2004 9:16:07 AM PST by justshutupandtakeit (America's Enemies foreign and domestic agree: Bush must be destroyed.)
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To: KQQL
How much of that negative rating is attributable to conservatives?
11 posted on 01/20/2004 9:16:25 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: Mad Dawgg
Zogby's extra heavy sauce.
12 posted on 01/20/2004 9:16:41 AM PST by demlosers
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To: LS
"So who the hell is Zogs polling?"

Maybe the DNC?

13 posted on 01/20/2004 9:16:50 AM PST by Mad Dawgg (French: old Europe word meaning surrender)
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To: Mad Dawgg
Boy, talk about Zogby hedging its bets !
14 posted on 01/20/2004 9:17:29 AM PST by Atlantic Friend (Cursum Perficio)
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To: KQQL
I don't think much of Zogby. However, I believe this poll could have some merit if GWB continues to alienate the GOP base.
15 posted on 01/20/2004 9:19:10 AM PST by wjcsux (If you can read this, you are in range.)
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To: KQQL
zobreath can kiss my ass
16 posted on 01/20/2004 9:19:40 AM PST by The Wizard (Saddamocrats are enemies of America, treasonous everytime they speak)
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To: dfwgator
Zogby could have found some posters here on FR.
17 posted on 01/20/2004 9:19:59 AM PST by demlosers
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To: KQQL
im a registered zogy member and i dont recall being polled on this one. when i registered i was questioned about everything from blood type to party affiliation.

remember zogby is often commissioned to do these polls. the people who pay for them can choose who gets polled.
18 posted on 01/20/2004 9:20:21 AM PST by cripplecreek (.50 cal border fence)
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To: KQQL
Chrissy Matthews is going to have an orgasm tonight.....note to self...stay away from MSNBC.
19 posted on 01/20/2004 9:20:23 AM PST by mystery-ak
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To: Rightone
Yes indeed, the left wing media are spinning at a million RPM to the left. They will use zogby's perverted and manipulated poll results to justify it.
20 posted on 01/20/2004 9:21:50 AM PST by desertcry
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To: KQQL
Zogby Tracking - Iowa
Date Dean Gephardt Kerry Edwards Clark Lieberman
January 16-18 22% 18% 25% 21% 2% 1%
January 15-17 23% 19% 24% 18% 3% 1%
January 14-16 22% 19% 23% 18% 3% 1%
January 13-15 19% 19% 24% 17% 3% 1%
January 12-14 21% 21% 22% 17% 3% 1%
January 11-13 24% 21% 21% 15% 3% 1%
January 10-12 28% 23% 17% 14% 2% 1%
January 9-11 26% 23% 16% 12% 2% 2%
January 8-10 25% 23% 15% 14% 3% 3
21 posted on 01/20/2004 9:22:00 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: KQQL
Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative;

A good State of the Union speech should take care of that. - Tom

22 posted on 01/20/2004 9:22:04 AM PST by Capt. Tom (Don't confuse the Bushies with the dumb republicans. - Capt. Tom)
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To: wjcsux
I'm sorry, but there is no polling evidence at all that Bush's "conservative base" is eroding, in any way, shape, or form.

That's why I noted that when pollsters get inside the numbers, they are finding Bush's GOP support is in the 90s, which is, I hate to tell you, unheard of.

23 posted on 01/20/2004 9:24:13 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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ZOGBY and others Recent IA Polling VS Actual Results.

---------------------------------------------

Kerry Edwards Dean Gephardt Clark Lieberman

Final Caucus Results 37.7% 31.9% 18.1% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Poll Dean Gephardt Kerry Edwards Clark Lieberman

Zogby Tracking (1/16-18) | 22% 18% 25% 21% 2% 1%

Insider Advantage (1/16-18) 19% 13% 24% 16% 1% 1%

Iowa Poll (1/13-16) 20% 18% 26% 23% 2% 1%

SurveyUSA (1/13-15) 24% 20% 21% 22% n/a n/a

KCCI (1/12-14) 22% 18% 21% 18% 2% 1%

LA Times (1/5-8) 30% 23% 18% 11% 4% 2%

QC Times (1/4-8) 23% 18% 15% 9% n/a n/a

http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/iowa_polls.html
=================================================

WINNER:
Iowa Poll (1/13-16) Dean 20% Dickey 18% Kerry 26% Eddy 23%

24 posted on 01/20/2004 9:24:29 AM PST by KQQL (^@__*^)
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To: finnman69
2002 Elections.....ooops

Zogby 10/26 - 10/29 49%R 51%D D + 2%
25 posted on 01/20/2004 9:24:41 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: Mad Dawgg
but it works. look at Kerry. the media uses skewed polls to pull undecideds in the direction they want. they wanted Dean defeated, float a few polls showing Kerry making a move, and the sheeple will climb on board.
26 posted on 01/20/2004 9:24:49 AM PST by oceanview
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To: KQQL
Is this the same Zogby who considers "fair" to be a negative ranking?
27 posted on 01/20/2004 9:25:27 AM PST by ItsOurTimeNow ("By all that we hold dear on this Earth I bid you stand, men of the West!")
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To: KQQL
ZOGBY SAUCE DATA [ERROR ANALYSIS]:

Zogby IA Poll for 01/18/04 - Kerry 24, Dean 23, Gephardt 19, Edwards 18.
Actual IA caucus 01/20/04 - Kerry 38, Edwards 32, Dean 18, Gephardt drops out

CONCLUSION - ZOGBY off by 14% on Kerry, and a roomful of monkeys could do better
ZOGBY attempts to influence polls, for what purpose?

28 posted on 01/20/2004 9:26:23 AM PST by Diogenesis (If you mess with one of us, you mess with all of us)
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To: Dog Gone; deport
@
29 posted on 01/20/2004 9:26:44 AM PST by KQQL (^@__*^)
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To: KQQL
That's Bush's fault, pushing that "immigration amnesty" debacle, not to mention the McCain-Feingold bill.
30 posted on 01/20/2004 9:26:52 AM PST by theDentist (Boston: So much Liberty, you can buy a Politician already owned by someone else.)
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To: DrDeb
Have at it.
31 posted on 01/20/2004 9:28:03 AM PST by mystery-ak (Almighty God, Embrace with Your invincible armour our loved ones in all branches of the service.)
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To: KQQL
Zogby gained undeserved credibility years ago when he was one of the few to predict an election right.

He's been off-base ever since then, but continues to use the media's credulousness to spread biased polls, serving his pro-Arab anti-Bush agenda.

32 posted on 01/20/2004 9:28:17 AM PST by shhrubbery!
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To: KQQL
My recollection is that W has consistently fared poorly against "an unnamed Democrat", but polls much better when matched against any of the likely Dem nominees 1 on 1.

Perhaps the Dems should capitalize on that by not publicly announcing who their nominee is. Would it be legal to just put "Democratic nominee", rather than someone's name, on the ballot?
33 posted on 01/20/2004 9:28:23 AM PST by phil_will1
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To: KQQL
That Bush should have lower numbers just after announcing he is planning to give illegals amnesty is not such a bad thing.
34 posted on 01/20/2004 9:29:28 AM PST by Plutarch
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To: finnman69
Looks like Zig-Zog was off by 13% on Kerry and 11% on Edwards for the Iowa caucus with his last poll. Not sure why commentators were saying the polls were so accurate last night.
35 posted on 01/20/2004 9:29:58 AM PST by GROOVY
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To: phil_will1
Too bad the MADMAN LOST IA


36 posted on 01/20/2004 9:30:28 AM PST by KQQL (^@__*^)
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To: KQQL; dfwgator; demlosers; Pubbie; Torie; ambrose; jwfiv; Mad Dawgg; Naspino; kabar; LS; All
ZOGBY POLL RESULTS MUST ALWAYS BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE FOLLOWING DISCLAIMER:


Zogby uses a 4-category Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor schemata vs the traditional 2-category approve/disapprove schemata:

Zogby includes Excellent and Good responses only in his summative 'approve' stat, even though he admits that at least 50% of those who answer 'Fair' would also indicate that they APPROVE of the President's job performance. For this reason, Zogby's APPROVAL ratings are always 6-10 points BELOW traditional approve/disapprove surveys like the ABCNews/WashingtonPost completed during the SAME time period!

ABCNEWS/WASHINGTONPOST:
1/15-18/04
58% approve / 39% disapprove (+19)
[93% approval from Republicans]
37 posted on 01/20/2004 9:30:57 AM PST by DrDeb
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To: GROOVY
Zog did call the Kerry Edwards surge correctly. the final caucus numbers are a little different as the caucuses are not straight up and down votes.
38 posted on 01/20/2004 9:32:47 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: KQQL
Two questions:

1. How were "likely" voters chosen?
2. Isn't Zogby figuring in Democrat voter fraud?

Also, it sounds like Zogby's result would result in an electoral victory for Bush as well as a popular vote victory. Not bad, espeically when there isn't a very well defined opponent.
39 posted on 01/20/2004 9:32:51 AM PST by mywholebodyisaweapon
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To: KQQL
I believe John Zogby about like I believe his brother. Which means I don't CAIR what either one say about anything.
40 posted on 01/20/2004 9:33:02 AM PST by isthisnickcool (Guns!)
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To: dfwgator
How much of that negative rating is attributable to conservatives?

The recent polls show Bush with 91 percent support from Registered Republicans. That is better than Reagan at this point in 1984.

The so called conservatives never vote for a winner. They did not vote for Reagan in 80 and 84. They did not vote for Nixon or Ford. They did not vote for Bush 41 or Dole.

The so called conservatives don't vote for Republicans any more than the so called liberals voted for Gore. Liberals vote for leftists fringe candidates and so called conservatives vote for right wing fringe candidates or don't vote.

The Bush bashing conservatives on this site were all fawning over Buchanan or the Libertarian candidate in 2000.

Rove doesn't pay any attention to them and neither does anyone else that wants to win an election

Dean thought he could win with the far left. They aren't even 20 percent of the Democrat base.

The name of the game is the center. The candidate that wins the majority fo the center wins the election. The candidate that wins nearly all the center wins a Reaganesque landslide.

The fringes on either the left or right are a total non factor in winning an election.

41 posted on 01/20/2004 9:34:46 AM PST by Common Tator
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To: finnman69
WINNER:
Iowa Poll (1/13-16) Dean 20% Dickey 18% Kerry 26% Eddy 23%

NOT ZOG
42 posted on 01/20/2004 9:35:13 AM PST by KQQL (^@__*^)
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To: isthisnickcool
Did you ever think that maybe Zogby is the link between terrorists in the USA?
43 posted on 01/20/2004 9:35:16 AM PST by Diogenesis (If you mess with one of us, you mess with all of us)
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To: Mad Dawgg
Hi did nail Iowa.
44 posted on 01/20/2004 9:37:09 AM PST by OneTimeLurker
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To: KQQL
Zogby polls balance Fox's. Add 8 to Zogby and subtract 8 from Fox.
45 posted on 01/20/2004 9:37:50 AM PST by optimistically_conservative (Bill Clinton has called Clark a man of high character and integrity. What more need be said?)
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To: OneTimeLurker
Forgot my Sarcasm tag...oops
46 posted on 01/20/2004 9:39:08 AM PST by OneTimeLurker
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To: KQQL
Are Zogby's polls useable to create an electoral map? I'm bettin' the electoral map in 2004 is going to look much more RED than it did in 2000.
47 posted on 01/20/2004 9:39:58 AM PST by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
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To: optimistically_conservative
no add +4 to ZOg and - 4% to Fox
48 posted on 01/20/2004 9:40:13 AM PST by KQQL (^@__*^)
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To: wjcsux
I believe this poll could have some merit if GWB continues to alienate the GOP base.


Question...... do you have a link to an article or polling data that shows President Bush is losing his base.... Yes a lot maybe unhappy with things that have been proposed but have they fled the reservation to the extent they won't vote for him come Nov. 2? Please share that data with us.
49 posted on 01/20/2004 9:40:37 AM PST by deport
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To: phil_will1
It's normal for a candidate to do well against an "unnamed" opponent. Unfortunately (for the Democrats), Terrance Hill isn't running.
50 posted on 01/20/2004 9:45:54 AM PST by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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