Zogby: Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative

zogby.com ^ | January 20, 2004 | zogby

[Common Tator]

How much of that negative rating is attributable to conservatives?

The recent polls show Bush with 91 percent support from Registered Republicans. That is better than Reagan at this point in 1984.

The so called conservatives never vote for a winner. They did not vote for Reagan in 80 and 84. They did not vote for Nixon or Ford. They did not vote for Bush 41 or Dole.

The so called conservatives don't vote for Republicans any more than the so called liberals voted for Gore. Liberals vote for leftists fringe candidates and so called conservatives vote for right wing fringe candidates or don't vote.

The Bush bashing conservatives on this site were all fawning over Buchanan or the Libertarian candidate in 2000.

Rove doesn't pay any attention to them and neither does anyone else that wants to win an election

Dean thought he could win with the far left. They aren't even 20 percent of the Democrat base.

The name of the game is the center. The candidate that wins the majority fo the center wins the election. The candidate that wins nearly all the center wins a Reaganesque landslide.

The fringes on either the left or right are a total non factor in winning an election.

[KQQL]

WINNER:
Iowa Poll (1/13-16) Dean 20% Dickey 18% Kerry 26% Eddy 23%

NOT ZOG

[Diogenesis]

Did you ever think that maybe Zogby is the link between terrorists in the USA?

[OneTimeLurker]

Hi did nail Iowa.

[optimistically_conservative]

Zogby polls balance Fox's. Add 8 to Zogby and subtract 8 from Fox.

[OneTimeLurker]

Forgot my Sarcasm tag...oops

[Recovering_Democrat]

Are Zogby's polls useable to create an electoral map? I'm bettin' the electoral map in 2004 is going to look much more RED than it did in 2000.

[KQQL]

no add +4 to ZOg and - 4% to Fox

[deport]

I believe this poll could have some merit if GWB continues to alienate the GOP base.

---

Question...... do you have a link to an article or polling data that shows President Bush is losing his base.... Yes a lot maybe unhappy with things that have been proposed but have they fled the reservation to the extent they won't vote for him come Nov. 2? Please share that data with us.

[Doctor Stochastic]

It's normal for a candidate to do well against an "unnamed" opponent. Unfortunately (for the Democrats), Terrance Hill isn't running.

[colorado tanker]

This poll is irrelevant. Zogby's (and Harris') methodology on job approval is different from all the other pollsters. Using the traditional methodology, the other polls have Bush at about 55%. Also important is that the percentage of people who think the country is going in "the right direction" has turned to the positive column, as the economy has improved. Compared to other recent Presidents, Bush is in very solid shape going into the election year.

Look at how major media like the WashPost are spinning the latest polls - claiming majorities do not back Bush's position on specific issues. That's what they do when his approval numbers are up.

[optimistically_conservative]

ok, I took the +/- 8 figure from here:

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/bushindexprobushtable.htm
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/image001.gif

[wjcsux]

No, I don't have any links, polling data or any other information on this.
All I know is that many, many people are upset over the government giveaway programs and the illegal immigration issues. This, in my opinion, appears to be an instant re-play of the 1992 election season.

[kellynla]

IMHO these polls have very little credibility. Look at all the polls that had the Dimwit Dean in the lead overwhelmingly and some at 49% while all the other 'Rat presidential candidates in the single digits!!! Hellooooo????

[hosepipe]

ZOGBY IS AN ISLAMIC DEMOCRAT.... just don't get any closer to being a big supporter any kind of malfeasance.. both groups are always aligned with whatever is nasty..

[templar]

I've never paid all that much attention to political and election polls, but I'm curious to ask anyone that has: How has Zogby polling done in correlating to real election results in the past? The other polls as well if any has followed them.

[Zack Nguyen]

Zogby was spot-on in 2000 and 1996, the only pollster to be correct.

As for his Dec. '03 predictions on Iowa, they may very well have been accurate. That was just as Dean wasbeginning his catastrophic collapse. So I wouldn't necessarily say that those numbers were inaccurate.

[pgkdan]

There's going to lot's of calls decrying Zogby but I beleive these numbers are probably just about right. Democrats are all full of themselves coming off of Iowa and going into NH and have been fed by the media a steady diet of Bush hating for a friggin' year now.

It's also evidence that Bush must do something to start shoring up his base. I'd say a point or two of that negative number is made up of po'd Republicans trying to send a message. There's a good amount of anger out there among conservatives right now, but when push comes to shove...most of them will be on board.

[templar]

This, in my opinion, appears to be an instant re-play of the 1992 election season.

I would agree except that the Democrats just don't have candidates with any real public appeal to run against the Republicans. Clinton was a highly appealing candidate to a huge number of Americans (first time I ever heard him speak I predicted he would be the next presidient). Kerry, Dean, and company don't have this kind of appeal. Bush will win by virtue of the power of incumbency (and maybe a major terrorist incident to boost the security issue in his favor).

[deport]

Thanks.... I've not seen anything either that indicates that from a polling perspective..... Lots of chatter but that most often doesn't turn into results or is from anti Bush people to begin with.... Media hype, Democrat Primary campaign, etc. all bolster the hype..... Here's a quote from a poll just completed that tells you a little of what the younger generation is thinking.....

Morton Kondracke in fresh ROLL CALL:

"Here's a harrowing pair of facts for Democrats: In 60 years, no Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying the youth vote. And right now President Bush's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is 62 percent, higher than his nationwide rating. Top Republican strategists admit that the youth vote is fluid, but right now the trends are all in their direction, which they hope is a harbinger not only for 2004, but also a possible longer-term party realignment."

A Bush campaign official said, "It's called the theory of political socialization. Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group. Why? Because the two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover. And who are the most Republican? People in their 40s, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan. If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a fairly good chance that we'll have your support."

Kondracke writes, "It seems impossible that a generation reared on free-love television and rap music, a generation far more tolerant of ethnic diversity and homosexuality than its elders, could support the GOP, whose base in anchored in the religious right. In fact, Democratic theorists such as Ruy Teixeira, John Judis and Stan Greenberg look upon the expanded role of minorities, cosmopolitan regions and diversity-minded young people to produce an 'emerging Democratic majority' through the force of demography.

"But, at the moment, the numbers support the view of GOP leaders that young people are trending Republican because they like Bush."