2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Wednesday, January 21, 2003 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	83.0	10	0
Arkansas	72.0	6	0
California	27.0	0	55
Colorado	86.0	9	0
Connecticut	27.5	0	7
Delaware	42.5	0	3
District of Columbia	10.0	0	3
Florida	69.0	27	0
Georgia	92.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	43.0	0	21
Indiana	89.0	11	0
Iowa	72.5	7	0
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	93.0	8	0
Louisiana	90.0	9	0
Maine	47.5	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	12.5	0	12
Michigan	58.0	17	0
Minnesota	58.0	10	0
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	73.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	77.5	5	0
New Hampshire	63.0	4	0
New Jersey	27.5	0	15
New Mexico	71.5	5	0
New York	28.0	0	31
North Carolina	91.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	78.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.5	7	0
Oregon	62.0	7	0
Pennsylvania	63.0	21	0
Rhode Island	12.5	0	4
South Carolina	95.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	88.0	11	0
Texas	98.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	9.5	0	3
Virginia	92.5	13	0
Washington	48.0	0	11
West Virginia	62.5	5	0
Wisconsin	61.5	10	0
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		355	183

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 355 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 183 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Solson]

in other words...a landslide.

[anniegetyourgun]

Gosh, I'm amazed at how close to reality that probably is. What's their track (no pun intended) record?

[nwrep]

No its not a landslide.

[.cnI redruM]

Solid win. This is a plausible scenario.

[Howlin]

FYI.

[Momaw Nadon]

Generally, political futures markets are very accurate because people are betting with their own money.

On the other hand, the betting on the Iowa outcome was not especially accurate.

This may be due to the complexity of the caucus system.

[Always Right]

Gosh, I'm amazed at how close to reality that probably is. What's their track (no pun intended) record?

Shoot, last election they could not even accurately project the winner of each state a day before the election, now they want to tell us they know 9 months before the election.....

[TommyDale]

I'm not so sure that California is solidly in the Democratic column this time...

[So Cal Rocket]

However... if you look at those states where Bush is at 75% or less and put them in the Dem's column, the Dem's win...

This will not be a cakewalk by any means - it's a long time to election day, and the Dem's don't have a candidate yet.

[Moosilauke]

now they want to tell us they know 9 months before the election.....

They're not telling us anything. They are simply providing a market where people may risk their money on their political hunches.

[So Cal Rocket]

I'd wager the house, the car, and the kids that Bush doesn't carry Wash DC!! To say he has a 10% chance of carrying the district is about 10% too high.

[Dog Gone]

One thing it tells me is that we should give New England back to England.

[jmstein7]

BUMP!

[jmstein7]

BUMP!

[EERinOK]

I went through the list very carefully with a worst case scenario in mind, giving any state gore won last time to the dems, leaving all projected dem votes in place as listed, and giving the dems the benefit of the doubt (zombie vote) in states such as Nevada and WV listed for Bush.

With that approach, i came up with a 278-260 gop victory.

[Momaw Nadon]

Here are two more political futures sites that may be of interest:

Iowa Electronic Markets 2004 US PRESIDENTIAL VOTE SHARE MARKET and newsfutures.com U.S. Presidential Election

[gridlock]

69% chance that Bush wins Florida!

This state was decided by fewer than 1000 votes last time round. What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?

[AmishDude]

This is fun. Thanks. Plus, check out the Deaniac topic list!

[PhiKapMom]

If I were drawing a map, this sure looks a lot like a map I would draw for Pres Bush. Texas comes in first for Bush and Oklahoma 2nd just .05 ahead of a lot of the rest of the South. These numbers look good and what I would expect.

I think we have a chance to take Maine if Kerry is the nominee -- they don't like Kerry as too many of people from MA have moved to Southern Maine.

[Momaw Nadon]

I'd wager the house, the car, and the kids that Bush doesn't carry Wash DC!! To say he has a 10% chance of carrying the district is about 10% too high.

There was no data for The District of Columbia, so I guessed 10%.

You are probably correct that President Bush's chances of winning there are much lower.

[B Knotts]

It looks pretty accurate to me. Please note the shift towards Bush in some of the last elections narrow loss states.

If there were a single state I would say seems a bit off, it would be California...I'd put it in the 30-40% range.

[mwl1]

I think the analysis is very credible... either CA or NY will also be in play... we are going to make the RATS spend a fortune defending either or both, bankrupting their efforts elsewhere... glad that IA, MN, and WI are on the Bush list because he is going to carry all three of these prior "blue states." Good work.

[Momaw Nadon]

This state was decided by fewer than 1000 votes last time round. What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?

I don't know the reasons for the 69% chance of President Bush winning Florida.

I was just reporting the current trading price of that particular futures contract.

[PetroniDE]

Shoot, last election they could not even accurately project the winner of each state a day before the election, now they want to tell us they know 9 months before the election.....

They couldn't tell us five weeks AFTER the election is one case.

[Alberta's Child]

What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?

For one thing, the leadership of the Democratic Party dumped a lot of money and political firepower in Florida in 2002 in an attempt to topple Governor Jeb Bush, and he was re-elected in a landslide.

[night reader]

What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?

9/11 and prescription drugs

[Right Wing Professor]

It's a market. The market usually knows best.

[bankwalker]

What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?

Jeb doing a good job, less chance or voter fraud next time around, military votes will be counted, incumbant factor, 9/11, ... just to name a few right off the top of my head. I'm sure there are more.

[Momaw Nadon]

I went through the list very carefully with a worst case scenario in mind, giving any state gore won last time to the dems, leaving all projected dem votes in place as listed, and giving the dems the benefit of the doubt (zombie vote) in states such as Nevada and WV listed for Bush.

With that approach, I came up with a 278-260 gop victory.

I believe that the race will tighten considerably before the election.

But, as of today, political futures traders indicate that they believe that President Bush will get 355 Electoral Votes.

[Alberta's Child]

That's interesting. Last week, I posted a scenario of a Bush victory by a 289-249 margin -- I was pessimistic about the GOP's chances in several swing states.

Based on this list, I'll apply what I call my "Pennsylvania Rule," which is as follows: Since I think Pennsylvania is going to be the closest state race in November, I assumed that the 63% chance of winning is about 13 points too high (i.e., it should be 50%). If you reduce Bush's percentage by 13 points in each state (let's assume that the distortion in the Pennsylvania numbers is carried through every state) and re-work the numbers, you come up with a 285-253 GOP margin.

[eyespysomething]

This may be due to the complexity of the caucus system.

Yep. When you can openly and vocally beg people to come and stand in your group, that tends to make things unpredictable.

[Momaw Nadon]

Here is another site that may be of interest:

Electoral Vote Calculator

[deport]

About what Rove and Co were predicting last time out..... in term of numbers.... maybe just a bit higher....

But I do expect it to be more spread this time....

[SamAdams76]

If it wasn't for New England, Gore would be president today.

[BlackElk]

Maine also defeated Kerry in a Congressional race there before he decided to move to Massachusetts.

[Allegra]

I wonder if Vegas would back these odds? I sure like 'em.

Except that Texas comes in at 98%, when in reality, it's 100%.

[rudypoot]

This will not be a cakewalk by any means - it's a long time to election day, and the Dem's don't have a candidate yet.

Be careful, this is according Bush vs ANY democrat. As soon as you put in a name for the democrat, Bush's numbers go up.

[Wphile]

How depressing. Washington State is only at 48%. What a shame. I hope this isn't the case. Otherwise, looks pretty good to me.

[waterstraat]

Very flawed.

This is not accurate at all. For example Michigan, which went for gore, cant even elect any republican candidate for a statewide office and now even has a democrat female governor. With its high unemployment rate, there is absolutely no chance at all it will go for bush. Same with other states with high unemployment.

Instead of polling people who have extra money to use to bet on sports, maybe you should make a projection of who is going to win by polling the people who lost their factories and jobs to asian free trade and who are now standing in unemployment lines in each state? Perhaps you might get different results.

[anniegetyourgun]

True. I guess we shall see. I hope you bring THIS thread back to life after the election!

[optik_b]

True, I'd bet everything in my possession that Bush won't win DC.

[optik_b]

He gave free prescription drugs to every old person.

[optik_b]

"Generally, political futures markets are very accurate because people are betting with their own money."

Not really. Odds merely tell you how people are betting. The object of the oddsmaker is to get 50% of the people betting on each side. So unless you have a lot of confidence in the gamblers than there is no reason to believe they are "very accurate"

[Jedi Master Yoda]

Bump!

[RinaseaofDs]

They elected Harris, for one. Jeb Bush got re-elected by 10 points, for another.

I think Florida is pretty safe.

[Peace will be here soon]

Missouri: Bush 73% of winning the state.

2000 Missouri Pres. election : Bush 50% Gore 47%. This state is as flip flopping as it gets. Don`t forget, it went for Clinton twice !! I think that number should be closer to 55%. Kansas City and St.Louis will determine which way Missouri falls. High turn out in these cities means Bush will have a tough ride. That is exactly how it played out in 2000. Turnout was not as high as it could have been in STL and KC, so Bush won the state. Hopefully, all the crack downs on voter fraud will make some difference.

[BlackRazor]

With [Michigan's] high unemployment rate, there is absolutely no chance at all it will go for bush.

I agree that Michigan will be one of the more difficult swing states for Bush to win. As of the moment, I'd project it to be a Dem victory. But I wouldn't presume to say Bush has a 0% chance of winning there. The East Lansing-based Mitchell Poll put Bush's approval rating in MI at 63% last week. That's ahead of the national average, despite the high unemployment. Bush will have a realistic chance here.

[CharacterCounts]

This state was decided by fewer than 1000 votes last time round. What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?

Better voting machines?