Yeah but just how far will he go to get a vote?......he's got the scarf...where's the vest?
Posted on 01/21/2004 12:11:22 PM PST by Ooh-Ah
WASHINGTON, 21 January 2004 — With the US presidential elections now under way, a new poll shows President George W. Bush losing substantial support among Arab-American voters. The poll, conducted in mid-January by Zogby International (ZI) for the Arab American Institute (AAI), surveyed 500 Arab-American voters nationwide, and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.
According to the ZI/AAI poll, if the elections were held today, only 28 percent of Arab-Americans would vote to reelect the president. Forty percent, on the other hand, would vote for “any Democrat,” while the remaining 32 percent would either vote for an independent candidate, or are still undecided as to whom they would support for president.
This represents a continuing erosion of support for Bush among Arab-Americans. In the 2000 presidential election, Bush won 44.5 percent of the community’s vote. In a poll conducted in July 2003, Bush’s support had dropped to 34 percent; while in this January 2004 poll, his totals have further declined to 28 percent. This erosion of support is further reflected in Arab-American attitudes toward Bush’s overall job performance as president.
In October 2001, 83 percent of Arab-Americans indicated approval of the president’s job performance. In July of 2003, this had dropped to 43 percent. Now, only 38 percent of Arab-Americans approve of the president’s job performance.
According to the ZI/AAI study, the administration’s Middle East policy is a major reason for this loss of support. When Arab-Americans were asked how important the administration’s Middle East policy was in determining their vote, two-thirds said that it was “very important.” At the same time, when asked to evaluate President Bush’s handling of the Middle East, only 18 percent of Arab-Americans approved of the administration’s policy in the region, while 78 percent expressed disapproval.
Another issue of concern to Arab-American was the administration’s policy toward civil liberties and the treatment of immigrants. Over one-half of those surveyed said this issue was important in determining their vote. And in this area too, there was widespread concern with the administration’s behavior.
On the Democratic side, Arab-American voters, at this point, show strong support for former Vermont governor Howard Dean’s bid to become his party’s presidential candidate. Thirty-six percent of Arab-Americans indicated their preference for Dean in the Democratic primary. No other Democrat received a double-digit response. Retired General Wesley Clark received the support of nine percent of Arab-Americans, followed by Sen. John Kerry with six percent.
Sen. Joseph Lieberman won the support of five percent, with Congressman Richard Gephardt winning four percent. Sen. John Edwards and Congressman Dennis Kucinich each received the support of three percent of Arab-American Democratic voters.
Because the Democratic contest is still in its early stages, one-third of Arab-Americans surveyed in this poll indicated that they were as of yet undecided as to whom they will support in the primary.
It is interesting to note that a significant number of Arab-Americans who support Howard Dean are those who also say that the Middle East is one of the most important issues in this election. This appears to account for Dean’s strong showing in the community.
While the Arab-American community is small in number (about 3.5 million nationally), it is concentrated in several key states, like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. In recent elections, these states have featured close contests between Democrats and Republicans. If the decline in the president’s support, reflected in the recent ZI/AAI poll, continues to hold until the November election, this could result in a loss of tens of thousands of votes for President Bush in each of these key states.
It is this concentration of Arab-Americans in these important “battleground states” that accounts for the attention being shown to the community this year. While the Arab-American vote won’t be the decisive factor in the 2004 election, the community can make a difference. That is why candidates are seeking Arab-American support in addressing their concerns.
What the ZI/AAI shows is that Arab-Americans are sophisticated voters. The community includes strong Democratic and Republican support bases, but it also includes a number of voters whose support can be won only by candidates who address key issues. For example, while President Bush’s support remains somewhat strong among Arab-American Republican voters (Bush wins 57 percent of the votes of those who declare themselves to be Republicans), among Democrats and Independents, he is paying the price for failing to address the community’s concerns on important Middle East and civil liberties issues.
Much can change in the next ten months. Because President Bush retains the power of incumbency, he can take decisive action in a number of areas that can have a decisive impact on voter attitudes. For example, should the president take a more active role in bringing about Israeli-Palestinian peace, 37 percent of Arab-Americans indicate that they would then be more likely to support him. Similarly, should the administration change direction on civil liberties, this too could improve the President’s standing among Arab-American voters.
The 2004 election will be a hard fought and important contest. The outcome will have an impact not only on America, but on the world. What is important is that Arab-Americans are now fully engaged in this process. For too long, the community was ignored, but no longer. Arab-Americans are a recognized voter group. They are counted and courted. They have issues that they want the candidates to address, and as the January ZI/AAI poll demonstrates, it is on the basis of these issues that many Arab-Americans will determine how they vote.
Yeah but just how far will he go to get a vote?......he's got the scarf...where's the vest?
Um.................who cares?
Zogby IOWA Poll for 01/18/04 - Kerry 24, Dean 23, Gephardt 19, Edwards 18.
Actual IOWA caucus 01/20/04 - Kerry 38, Edwards 32, Dean 18, Gephardt drops out
CONCLUSION - ZOGBY off by 14% on Kerry, and a roomful of monkeys could do better
ZOGBY tries to repeatedly attempts to influence polls, for what purpose? for what purpose?
Probable reason:
Dean wears the mantle of the al Qaeda wing of the Democratic party.
Your concern is valid. Much of the foreign language press inside the US, which caters to various & growing enthic enclaves, is stridently against the US War on Terror.
Sooner rather than later this will begin to have a profound negative effect on traditional American foreign policy, IMO.
What this tells me is 72% of Arab-non-Americans want someone who will let them distroy the USA so they can install their religion for retards as the official religion. Anyone who questions islime shall be killed.
Wrong. Take a closer look at the numbers:
Sen. Joseph Lieberman won the support of five percent,
28 percent of Arab-Americans would vote to reelect the president.
So right there is 33% who refute your insinuation.
Forty percent, on the other hand, would vote for “any Democrat,” while the remaining 32 percent would either vote for an independent candidate, or are still undecided as to whom they would support for president.
It is important to break out those supporting an independent from those who are still undecided. Independent could mean the Conservative Party, or Green, or Libertarian, or Transcendental, or the Ayatollah-Jihad Now! party. Big differences. And it would be a mistake to assume that those who are undecided will automatically go for the Dem. So in actuality we have somewhere between 35-67% who might merit concern. But since 'any Dem' is polling at 30-40% in every other segment of society, that still is a pretty broad brush to paint with.
The man created this, it's too close to call bullship that went on for day. Next thing we know Zogby will be saying that Dean's rant the other night is why he lost the lead in Iowa......
I don't know.
What was Bush's vote margin down there?
When all was said and done, it came to 537 as I recall.
If you want to trust them that is your decision and your right my friend.
Knowing the percentage of Wahabi (?sp) islime is over 70% in the USA does not give me a warm fuzzy about these people. Yes I know all Arab-non-Americans are not islime. Debating the actual percentage does not change one fact, there is something wrong with these people. They have screwed up the sand piles they live in and with few exceptions I see no reason to trust them.
Remember, their silence was deafening after 9-11. By the way, I refer to all hypenated Americans as non-Americans.
(Of course, you can play that game with any other segment of the population as well.)
Uh, I mean, like, du-uuh!
Of course you can. For example, if the "forces" that drive Bush's support among Arab-Americans down by 16.5% raise his support among Jews by just 1%...
then we're in big trouble.
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