Iranian Alert -- January 25, 2004 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD --Americans for Regime Change in Iran

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

Phillips' Ethnic 'Smear' Backfires

Press and public believe he crossed the line

PORTLAND, OR - High tech small business owner and Republican candidate for Congress (OR-01) Goli Ameri today again expressed deep disappointment toward Tim Phillips and his campaign of negative, untruthful, ethnically-oriented attacks against her.

Ameri wasn't the only one to express disappointment toward Phillips and his untruthful attacks. The Portland Tribune called Phillips' attacks a "smear." Meanwhile, the prestigious Capitol Hill publication Congressional Quarterly raises the specter that "bringing up Ameri's ethnic background could backfire" on Phillips.

Edwin Dover, a political science professor at Western Oregon University, is quoted as saying. "'This is the sort of thing where I think has the potential' to backfire."

Meanwhile, Phillips has been scolded by at least one high-level Republican leader. First Congressional District Republican Chairman Jeff Smith is demanding that Phillips cease and desist from negative campaigning.

And U.S. Marine Col. Michael Howard, who served in the Gulf War and more recently in Iraq said, "I'm sad that the Tim Phillips campaign has decided to distort Goli's record. I know Goli Ameri. She is a staunch defender of the Bush administration's war against terror. Tim Phillips doesn't know what he's talking about."

http://www.ameriforcongress.com/.docs/rid/64/pg/10014

In Iran, 'personal space' expands as reform stalls
By Karl Vick, Washington Post, 1/25/2004

TEHRAN -- The young woman, dressed in a manner forbidden by law, was complaining about something she saw on a television channel that's illegal to watch.

"The stuff on Euro News," said Nesa Hamlehdar, exasperated. "They show Iranian women in chador. Boys as soldiers. Old cars."

She rolled her eyes. "This is the image the West has of us!"

In Iran, reality looks a lot more like Hamlehdar. Pausing in a fashion mall on her way home from a day of college classes, the 22-year-old language student wore tight bell-bottoms under a tunic cut not like the all-enveloping chador, which translates literally as "tent," but more like the little black cocktail dresses that now pass for outer garments in some parts of Tehran.

There was eyeliner and nail polish. And her scarf was pushed back to reveal half her hair, something officially prohibited shortly after President Abolhassan Bani-Sadr explained in 1981 that women's hair emits rays that drive men insane. "The limitations that used to be," Hamlehdar said, "do not exist now."

That basic fact of Iranian daily life signals a fundamental shift in politics. The dramatic relaxation of the theocracy's strict official dress code is only the most visible aspect of a grudging yet steady expansion of what Iranians call "personal space." The term describes the realm of purely personal liberties that extends from holding hands in public to watching satellite television without fear of a police raid.

Initially championed by reformers who also demanded political freedoms, these personal liberties are being granted by the conservative Islamic clerics who control the most powerful institutions in Iran's government. The hard-liners, who wrote the rules in the first place, now see a political advantage in allowing them to be widely ignored.

Iranians elect a new parliament in February. And years before a hard-line election oversight body caused an uproar this week by summarily banning reformist candidates by the thousands, moderates in the conservative camp plotted a subtler route to victory, one based on giving people more of what they want.

"Already, we have plenty of freedoms on the street. Nobody can curb that," said Mohammed Javad Larijani, a senior official in Iran's judiciary, which is headed and staffed by conservative appointees. "We politicians have staked our future on that freedom. We are hopeful to gain power through that freedom."

Many Iranians, while embracing the new leeway, say they recognize that the gains are meant to relieve pressure for more fundamental political freedoms, which remain circumscribed. While taking morals police off the streets, for example, hard-liners have also closed more than 200 newspapers.

"It's like a safety valve to prevent an explosion in society," said Shadi Kohandani, 25, an accounting student.

"They want to keep everyone amused so they don't think about more important things. They're investing for the next elections."

"At least we have these -- music, clothes," agreed Nazanin Derakhshanzadeh, shopping for a new overcoat in north Tehran.

The new leniency also extends to romance. With morals police no longer on the streets, young couples hold hands in public even while passing Friday prayers in downtown Tehran. "It has become common behavior," said Amirabbas Sari Aslani, 25, who had tucked his girlfriend's hand inside his jacket pocket on a chilly afternoon. "People need to show this behavior."

http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2004/01/25/in_iran_personal_space_expands_as_reform_stalls/

Iran Hard-Liners Veto Election Bill

January 25, 2004
The Associated Press
ABC News

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran's hard-line Guardian Council has vetoed a bill that sought to reverse the disqualification of thousands of reformist electoral candidates, a leading legislator said Sunday night.

The move is part of an escalating battle between reform-minded lawmakers and religious conservatives who dominate the most powerful branches of the government.

"We've been informed that the Guardian Council has vetoed the legislation on the grounds that it contradicted the constitution and Sharia (Islamic) law," Mohsen Mirdamadi told The Associated Press. Mirdamadi heads the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the parliament and is one of the lawmakers disqualified.

The bill sought to overturn the disqualification of more than a third of the 8,200 candidates who registered for the Feb. 20 elections.

Members of the Guardian Council could not immediately reached for comment.

The veto is considered likely to provoke a boycott of the elections by reformist parties and politicians, who dominate the current 290-seat parliament. Reformists had condemned the disqualifications as an attempt by the hard-liners to skew the elections in their favor.

The legislators had passed the bill earlier Sunday in a session broadcast live on state radio. They categorized it as "triple-urgent," meaning highest priority. It was the first time since Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution that parliament had approved a triple-urgency bill.

The bill would have amended the National Elections law to force the Guardian Council, which oversees elections, to reinstate all candidates unless there is legal documentation to prove them unfit for parliament.

The council's members are chosen by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has asked the body to reconsider its disqualifications. The council has reinstated only a few hundred candidates. Its slow response has angered reformists, who say it does not act without the supreme leader's approval.

After the bill was passed, and before it was vetoed, lawmaker Rajabali Mazrouei said the crisis would determine in which direction Iran moves: toward dictatorship or democracy.

He said rejection of the bill would mean the council was "publicly revealing its true objective of imposing brazen dictatorship."

"The rejection will mean that all options to avert an exacerbation of the crisis are finished," Mazrouei added.

Reformist political parties have threatened to boycott the elections if the disqualifications are not overturned. Members of Khatami's government have said they will not hold what would be "sham elections."

On Friday, Khatami and parliamentary speaker Mahdi Karroubi warned that unless the disqualifications were withdrawn, there would be no liberal candidates in more than two-thirds of the electoral districts.

The battle over who can run on Feb. 20 has turned into Iran's worst political crisis in years.

Reformers believe the conservatives are trying to tilt the elections so they will regain control of the 290-seat parliament. In the 2000 polls, the hard-liners lost the majority in the assembly for the first time since the 1979 revolution.

Hard-liners claim the disqualified candidates including more than 80 sitting lawmakers failed to meet legal requirements to run.

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20040125_965.html

U.S. Mulls Stronger Nuclear Curbs

January 25, 2004
Reuters
Carol Giacomo

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration is considering a change in international rules to prevent countries like Iran from legally acquiring components for a nuclear weapons program, senior U.S. officials say.

The goal is to strengthen the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, cornerstone of efforts to stem the spread of atomic arms, by closing what is now viewed as a major loophole.

The initiative is similar to a deal that France, Germany and Britain recently offered Iran and to proposals advocated by some of Washington's most respected security experts.

It is still in early discussions but may be formally advanced at the June 8 U.S.-hosted summit of the Group of Eight major industrialised countries, U.S. officials told Reuters.

Under a bargain struck when the NPT took effect 33 years ago, most countries pledged never to acquire nuclear weapons.

In return, they were promised that the five declared nuclear weapons states -- the United States, Russia, France, Britain and China -- would help them acquire nuclear technology for peaceful uses, namely nuclear power plants.

However, U.S. officials and experts say it is clear that some NPT signatories -- like Iran, Libya and North Korea -- exploited the pact to acquire technology that brings them close to being able to produce nuclear weapons.

In general, the proposal now under discussion in Washington would guarantee and even enhance the ability of non-nuclear weapons states to obtain nuclear power for electricity.

ENDING FUEL PRODUCTION

But they would be denied the right to manufacture, store or reprocess nuclear fuel -- a key component of nuclear bombs.

"A lot of people have been talking about that and we're considering it -- cutting off enrichment and reprocessing technology to close the loophole while guaranteeing them (non-nuclear states) access to fuel," one U.S. official said.

"Guaranteeing these states access to (nuclear) fuel has its own risks, but it's better than allowing them to have enrichment and reprocessing capabilities ... We may well do that in the G8 context," he said.

The official added: "It's obvious that there is a problem with the NPT when a country can stay in compliance with it and still get very close to a nuclear weapons capability."

Experts say acquiring weapons-grade material is the biggest hurdle countries face in seeking to make atomic bombs.

President George W. Bush put a new spotlight on Iran's ambitions in 2002 when he accused the Islamic republic of being part of an "axis of evil" -- with North Korea and Iraq -- bent on acquiring atomic arms.

Later, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, found traces of bomb-grade highly enriched uranium at two sites in the country.

Iran insists its nuclear program is purely peaceful. Libya, on the other hand, recently agreed to dismantle its nuclear program while North Korea, having withdrawn from the NPT, claims its nuclear activities are proceeding.

EUROPEAN DEAL

Last November, France, Germany and Britain struck a deal under which Iran agreed to suspend enrichment activities and accept more intrusive snap IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities in exchange for western technology.

But Iran has since balked at fully suspending the nuclear program as Washington and the Europeans demand.

Rather than amend the NPT -- a tedious and maybe impossible task -- experts have suggested that the international community supplement the pact with additional inducements and penalties.

Writing in the New York Times last month, former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft, former Defence Secretary William Perry and two other former officials -- Arnold Kanter and Ashton Carter -- outlined their proposal.

Nuclear countries should withhold nuclear power technology from states that do not forsake atomic weapons but should offer a reliable source of nuclear fuel to, and retrieval of spent fuel from, states that do forsake atomic weapons, they said.

They urged Washington to propose that Russian plans to help Iran build a network of civilian nuclear power reactors be permitted to proceed -- as long as Tehran agrees to a verifiable ban on enrichment and reprocessing and lets a Russian-led consortium handle its nuclear fuel needs.

Such a deal will not be easy, partly because of a lack of U.S. trust in Iran and because Russia and Europe may argue over whose nuclear industry should benefit most from this arrangement, experts said.

But it would present Iran with a "clear test" of whether it harbours nuclear ambitions, Scowcroft and his co-authors said.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/040125/325/ekbk5.html

Germany: We'll Free Prisoners for Arad

January 26, 2004
Ha'aretz
Aluf Benn, Yoav Stern and Baruch Kra

The German government has promised to free two Lebanese and an Iranian currently serving life sentences in Germany, and also to try to persuade France and Switzerland to release Lebanese prisoners they hold, in exchange for the return of missing Israeli navigator Ron Arad or his body.

The German pledge is included in the prisoner exchange deal reached by Israel and Hezbollah through German mediation.

The deal comprises two stages. In the first stage, to take place on Thursday, Israel will release 435 Arab prisoners - 400 Palestinians, 23 Lebanese and 12 nationals of other countries - and one German, in exchange for the return of businessman Elhanan Tennenbaum and the bodies of three slain soldiers - Benny Avraham, Adi Avitan and Omar Suwad.

The following day, Israel will also hand over the bodies of 59 Lebanese buried in Israel, as well as any information it has on 24 Lebanese who have been missing since 1982 and maps of mines laid by Israel in Lebanese territory.

The second stage deals with the attempt to find information about Arad and bring him back to Israel. A joint German-Hezbollah committee will be set up to conduct the search for information, with indirect help from "other sources" - an apparent reference to Iran.

If solid information is obtained - meaning DNA samples to confirm his identity and proof of whether he is alive or dead - Israel will release Samir Kuntar, the only Lebanese prisoner who is not being freed this week, and also the only one convicted of murdering civilians in Israel rather than soldiers in Lebanon.

However, the agreement is deliberately vague on this point, saying in another place that Kuntar will be released once the discussion of his case ends, and that the parties hope this will be in two to three months.

If Arad is located, negotiations will begin over his return to Israel. Any deal would include the release of the three prisoners held in Germany, all of whom were involved in the murder of an Iranian dissident in a Berlin restaurant in 1992. Israel will also have to release additional Arab prisoners, mainly Palestinians.

Once the joint committee is established - which is supposed to be this week - Israel will also give it any information it has relating to the disappearance of four Iranian diplomats in Beirut in 1982.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who gave a press conference in Beirut to announce the deal, said the second stage will begin immediately after Friday's exchange. "Four Israeli prisoners are not sufficient for a comprehensive agreement, because there are additional Israelis in Lebanon," he explained.

Specifically, he said, Hezbollah believes Arad is in Lebanon, and not in Iran, as Israel believes.

At the conclusion of this stage, "if the Arad affair ends positively," Israel will release a large quantity of other prisoners, who, Nasrallah hinted, may include Israeli Arabs as well as Palestinians. "Israel has expressed willingness to pay a heavy price if the second stage goes well," he said.

If Israel fails to implement the second stage, he added, Hezbollah will continue to kidnap Israeli soldiers.

In Israel, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz on Sunday told a meeting of the Manufacturers Association in Tel Aviv that "today, Israel is closer than ever to the possibility of obtaining real information about the fate of Ron Arad."

"We will not rest until we have brought all the captives and MIAs home: Ron Arad, Zacharia Baumel, Yehuda Katz, Zvi Feldman and Guy Hever," he said. "The deal ties Ron Arad's fate to the next stage of implementation. But I say that very cautiously, because we are dealing with a very cruel enemy."

"This is the best deal we could achieve under the present conditions," he continued. "The price we had to pay for the return of Elhanan Tennenbaum and the three soldiers was extremely high ... The decision was difficult but, in my opinion, correct."

Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces and the Prisons Service are busy preparing for the first stage of the exchange. On Monday, the list of 400 Palestinian prisoners to be released will be finalized, and the bodies to be returned to Lebanon will be exhumed and readied for transfer. The final list of prisoners to be released will be published on the Prisons Service's Web site tonight, so that anyone who wants to petition the High Court of Justice against a particular release can do so. However, it is considered very unlikely that the court would uphold such a petition.

According to Israeli sources, which Palestinians will be released is entirely at Israel's discretion; Hezbollah will have no say in the matter. The criteria set by the cabinet are that only prisoners with less than two years still to serve and without "blood on their hands" will be released. However, Israel did promise Hezbollah that only security prisoners, as opposed to ordinary criminals, will be included in the deal. Many of those to be freed will be administrative detainees rather than convicted prisoners.

Nasrallah said in his press conference that Hezbollah's key achievement in the deal was Israel's agreement to release Palestinian prisoners and not just Lebanese. The Palestinians, he said, will be released to their homes in the territories; "they will not be deported to other places."

As for the Lebanese, he said, "We will receive the 17 prisoners who operated against Israel with official and popular festivities. The Lebanese government will decide how to receive the others."

The deal, step by step

* Sunday: Location of the bodies of the Lebanese citizens to be handed over to Hezbollah.

* Monday: Coordinator Major General (res.) Ilan Biran leaves for Germany to complete the arrangements.

* Monday or Tuesday morning: Publication on the Prison Service Web site of the names of the prisoners to be released.

* Wednesday: Final identification of the bodies of the kidnapped Israel Defense Forces soldiers and a sign of life from Elhanan Tennenbaum.

* Thursday: Implementation of the deal - a German plane will fly Tennenbaum and the bodies of the three soldiers from Beirut to Munich. An Israeli plane will fly 36 Arab nationals to Munich; 59 bodies will be transported over land to Lebanon; and 400 Palestinian detainees will be freed into the territories.

* Over the coming weeks: Negotiations to secure information about Ron Arad and the release of terrorist Samir Kuntar.

* If reliable information is received about Arad: Negotiations for the release of the navigator, or his body, in return for additional Arab prisoners.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=386848&contrassID=1&subContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y

Khatami Sees 'Positive Signals' From US - Newsweek

January 25, 2004
Dow Jones Newswires
Dow Jones

NEW YORK -- Iran's president has said there have been some "positive signals in the tone and the pronouncements" of U.S. officials recently, and he is "sure there will be new developments" unless this is a "tactical ploy."

In an interview with Newsweek magazine, President Mohammad Khatami said "we are hearing different voices from the U.S," but "we must be confident that the voice we hear is the voice of the entire U.S. administration."

Newsweek quoted the Iranian leader as saying you can't "continue imposing sanctions and leveling baseless allegations against a country and at the same time ask for dialogue."

Khatami made his comments about "hearing different voices" and "baseless allegations" when Newsweek asked his response to recent "gestures" by the U.S. - a statement by Secretary of State Colin Powell that the two nations should keep open the possibility of dialogue and U.S. assistance after a recent earthquake.

When asked about President George W. Bush labeling Iran as part of an axis of evil, Khatami said the U.S. knows that Iran is also an adversary of the terror group al Qaida and also knows that his nation has "acted wisely and rationally in Afghanistan and in Iraq."

"We must all contribute so the U.S. can be extricated from Iraq" and the occupation ended, he was quoted as saying.

The Iranian leader said his country was worried about the possible breakup of Iraq. Khatami told Newsweek a "representative government should take charge." Such a government could "decide a good destiny for Iraq with the help of the neighboring countries and even those countries that are occupying powers" along with the U.N., he told the magazine.

When asked by Newsweek, "what would it take" to get Iran "to stop producing fissile material," Khatami replied "we have said categorically that we are not looking for nuclear weapons." But he repeated Iran's position that "we regard it as our right to benefit from nuclear energy for peaceful purposes."

Khatami said India, Pakistan and Israel all have nuclear weapons and Iran expects the U.N. and U.S. "to help establish a Middle East free of nuclear weapons."

http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2004012520130000&Take=2

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