2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, January 26, 2003 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	83.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	25.0	0	55
Colorado	86.0	9	0
Connecticut	27.5	0	7
Delaware	42.5	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	70.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	38.0	0	21
Indiana	89.0	11	0
Iowa	71.0	7	0
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	93.0	8	0
Louisiana	90.0	9	0
Maine	46.0	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	7.5	0	12
Michigan	56.0	17	0
Minnesota	56.0	10	0
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	73.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	77.5	5	0
New Hampshire	63.0	4	0
New Jersey	27.5	0	15
New Mexico	71.5	5	0
New York	24.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	78.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.5	7	0
Oregon	58.0	7	0
Pennsylvania	63.0	21	0
Rhode Island	7.5	0	4
South Carolina	93.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	89.0	11	0
Texas	98.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	9.5	0	3
Virginia	92.5	13	0
Washington	48.0	0	11
West Virginia	62.5	5	0
Wisconsin	61.5	10	0
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		355	183

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 355 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 183 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Last week's projection:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[epluribus_2]

This is, of course, BEFORE the arrest of Bin Laden and the passing of the bill to make the tax cuts permanent. (heehee)

[Common Tator]

There are indications in the two parties strategies that have been very accurate predictors of election outcomes in the past.

Click Here

[Onelifetogive]

Delaware 42.5
Maine 46.0
Michigan 56.0
Minnesota 56.0
Oregon 58.0
Washington 48.0

This indicates that only 6 states are really in play...

[Momaw Nadon]

Thank you for the link Common Tator.

That is an interesting read.

[sirshackleton]

This is weird. I'm looking at it, and it seems overly optimistic, but when I delve further I can't find really any argument with it...at least not enough of one to make a difference in the outcome. Thanks for this.

[jpl]

Bush has a 70% chance of winning Florida? I wish I could believe that, I really do, but I just don't. I think he will win it, but to say it's 70% likely strikes me as irrational exuberance.

[Husker24]

From what I hear, Ohio is in play, and on here they have it 78% for Bush. I wouldnt read a whole lot into this.

[Momaw Nadon]

This indicates that only 6 states are really in play...

Even if President Bush loses in all of these 6 states, he still wins the election with 321 Electoral Votes.

[LS]

That's almost exactly how I have calculated it on numerous threads around here---340-350 EVs for Bush.

The only thing that could turn this into a Bush landslide would be one of the really biggies, NY, CA, or IL, going to Bush. That isn't out of the question.

[LS]

I think Bush will win Minn. and Or. I think the others are going to be tough.

[BplusK]

This figures will have to change when we know who is the final candidate for the Democrats. When people will compare George W. Bush with the actual Democrat candidate, they will be able to make their minds more specifically. I believe that many will prefer Bush.

[LS]

What you have to do is ask yourself this: "What states that Bush won in 2000 can a Dem win today?"

You won't find many. MAYBE FL with the "right" candidate . . . except any named candidate gets creamed by Bush.

Now, ask "what states that Bush lost in 2000 can he win in 04?" I think you have to say MN, NM, IO, OR, PA, WI, and possibly NJ and MI. Throw in the fact that JUST the states Bush won in 2000 already have an additional 7 electoral votes (meaning he begins with 278 and the Dem has 7 fewer) and you see the magnitude of the Dem challenge.

[LS]

I live in OH. It ain't in play, and wasn't all that close in 2000.

[jmaroneps37]

Iowa and Oregon are a bit too optimistic. Oregon has by-mail voting that spell rat voter fraud opportunity.

[The South Texan]

"Iowa and Oregon are a bit too optimistic. Oregon has by-mail voting that spell rat voter fraud opportunity."

I always thought Iowa was a conservative state because of it being rural, etc. What's the deal there?

[StriperSniper]

Interesting site.

[lasereye]

According to the new Newsweek poll, Kerry leads Bush. These numbers will start to change.

[Gorjus]

I always thought Iowa was a conservative state because of it being rural, etc.

Nobody lives on farms anymore in Iowa. Like the old saying goes: "It's easy to make a million dollars farming . . . if you start with two million dollars."

Iowa is retired people (can you say, "Social Security"?) and city people (not big cities, mind you, but not rural).

Obviously, those statements are exaggerated for effect. And in fact, Iowa was close in the last election. But lots and lots of conservatives left years ago - like I did - to go where the jobs are.

[RedWing9]

Around 2 weeks ago the Tribune showed that Bush had a 52% (or so) favorable rating in IL. Why is it not in play then?

[voicereason]

Now, ask "what states that Bush lost in 2000 can he win in 04?" I think you have to say MN, NM, IO, OR, PA, WI, and possibly NJ and MI.

I wouldn't count too much on PA. While its not to say that he couldn't win those votes, it would be a hard fight.

There is also a lot of time between now and the election. One move on the part of either candidate at the right time could have significant effects on the outcome. This amnesty situation is a prime example.

Wait till after the Conventions to see what transpires....

[Keith]

What many of us must remember is the "discouragement" factor.

In 2000, everyone knew it was going to be fairly close, no one knew HOW close. So people voted knowing that it could make a difference.

This year, I expect, as we get near the end of October, the inevitability of Bush's re-election will be obvious, and the Dems, who always have a problem getting the winos and city people to the polls, will suffer a decline in turnout.

It will lead to an even greater victory than the final polls predict...this is important because it will also affect those all important Senate races that we need to get our judges in.

[MattinNJ]

Forget NJ. I am surrounded by not just democrats, but fire breathing Bush haters. Jersey is done. Finito, Hasta la vista. Save yourselves."Drop all ammo on my hole. It's my call. Repeat. It's my call."

[Wright is right!]

"According to the new Newsweek poll, Kerry leads Bush. These numbers will start to change."

The Newsweek Poll is either an out-lyer or an intentional fraud. I have the strong suspicion that the polling unit was told what the desired result was in advance, and told to come up with it. It's nothing more than media propoganda.

Michael

[LS]

Nevertheless, recent polls have Bush defeating any Dem in NJ.

[You Dirty Rats]

I doubt there is much trading in this market. A thin market is notoriously unreliable. It's also WAY too early.

[Onelifetogive]

Why is it not in play then?

I just picked the states that (according to this oddsmaker) is between 40% and 60% chance of Bush winning. IL did't quite make it...

[lasereye]

The Newsweek Poll is either an out-lyer or an intentional fraud. I have the strong suspicion that the polling unit was told what the desired result was in advance, and told to come up with it. It's nothing more than media propoganda.

Is there another poll in the last few days you're relying on? Or you just assume Bush must be ahead? If the latter, it's not a good assumption.

[White Eagle]

52% favorable does not translate directly into 52% of the vote. The GOP in IL is still getting over the George Ryan scandal (Isn't it amazing that the IL Secy of State office, which has been a scandal on wheels since the days of Paul Powell and earlier, is now cleaner than the Vatican under Jesse White??) and until the GOP gets some names people can get behind or Gov Rod gets caught doing something Illinois will continue to look like a Democrat haven.

PS - Lynn Cheney is originally from Illinois. She would be a great campaigner here, at least with the people who are of an age to remember where she came from.

[kidd]

In the 2000 election, Connecticut was actually a Bush state until Lieberman was selected as the DEM VP candidate. Then it went soundly for the DEMs.

Unless Lieberman is the DEM candidate this year, Connecticut could go either way. People in Connecticut are not thrilled with Screamin' Deanie or Ketchup-Boy either.

[MattinNJ]

True, but the whole Torch-Forrester-Lautenberg fiasco just shows how corrupt and unsalvageable this state is.

Still, I wouldn't count Schundler out in a rematch with McGreevey.

[exmarine]

This means nothing and is guess-work at best. Also, this must have come out before the new immigration amnesty plan. Arizonans will not take kindly to Bush's plan and could lose the state for him, since Arizona is overwhelmingly against amnesty and illegal immigration.

[txrangerette]

The dubious assumption would be
to credit a Newsweek Poll. They
are very left-leaning, anti-GOP
& anti-Bush. True to their past.

The recent poll will be used in
a front-cover story to hype John
Kerry. That was their plan.

Now to the flawed methodology of
this poll. A sample of "adults
over 18" is who they polled. All
credible polls use "registered"
or "likely voters" as a sample.
One even narrows it down to "most
likely voters". Repubs do better
& better in each refinement.

[sr4402]

Comparing to 1/21/2004 figures Bush went up in:

AR,CA,D.C, GA, IL, IO,ME,MA,MI,MN,NY,NC,OR,RI,SC

and down in

FL and TN

The figures in FL and TN may be within error range. This doesn't look good for the democrats.

[AmishDude]

Remember that this is not polling data. This is according to a gambling market. This is just what gamblers believe. I think the number is way too high for Ohio, for example.

[txrangerette]

Wow, they will love the total,
immediate amnesty & citizenship
policy of the Dems, won't they?

Sorry, forgot that the point is
to punish Bush.

If successful, will hurt ME.
(not only me; just personalizing
it for emphasis)

Have read a number of your posts.
They depress me. Even scare me.

Seriously.

[Onelifetogive]

This is according to a gambling market.

Agreed...but gambling markets tend to be far more accurate than polls. Something about having real money riding on the outcome...

[Momaw Nadon]

Comparing to 1/21/2004 figures Bush went up in:

AR,CA,D.C, GA, IL, IO,ME,MA,MI,MN,NY,NC,OR,RI,SC

and down in

FL and TN

I believe it is the other way around.

President Bush lost ground in:

AR,CA,D.C, GA, IL, IO,ME,MA,MI,MN,NY,NC,OR,RI,SC

and gained in

FL and TN

[HRoarke]

Tough to say how a presidential election in FL will go, what with all of the stealing the election lies that will be told, but everyone thought that the 02 gubernatorial election was going to be close because of 2000 backlash. JEB! won in a landslide. This time they won't be able to exclude the military vote and the central time zone folks in west FL (Bush country) won't get scared away by an early call from the networks. I'll personally be volunteering my arse off...

[lasereye]

Overall, 52 percent of those polled by NEWSWEEK say they would not like to see Bush serve a second term, compared to 44 percent who want to see him win again in November. As a result, Kerry is enjoying a marginal advantage over Bush, a first for the poll. Forty-nine percent of registered voters chose Kerry, compared to 46 percent who re-elected Bush.

[exmarine]

Have read a number of your posts. They depress me. Even scare me.

Maybe people need to be scared...the future of America is at stake, and how the government deals with immigration will have a lot to do with whether or not this nation survives in the long-term.

I'm a realist. Bush's plan for back-door amnesty is on a par with the democrats philosophy. The vast majority of REAL Americans (not illegals or their advocates) are against Bush's plan, and he is going to pay a price at the polls for it. His numbers have already dropped - I hope he wakes up and smells the coffee - Americans REJECT HIS PLAN.