That's a good theory unless Jeb wants to run in '08.
I do not know if GW has the gonads to make a change! He is much, much, much too loyal to people that bring him down, i.e. Tenet!
Disagree STRONGLY. Tenet is one of the best directors the CIA has ever had, and far and away the best in the last two or three decades. He has made tremendous strides in turning the agency around after a long string of failed and inept directors, and is highly regarded within the agency (throughout the agency, that is, not just within certain departments of cliches). Firing Tenet would be extremely foolish. It would not only lose us a fine leader and administrator at a crucial time, and gravely effect morale within the intelligence community, it would also send the message that we are back to the (all too recent) bad old days of political scapegoating.
One of the most important things Tenet has done (in addition to beefing up HUMINT and introducing innovative use of computers and creation of new software -- he was also the one who speeded up intro of the Predator I believe) is to turn around the "cover your ass at all cost" mentality that's crippled the agency for decades. Tenet has encouraged operatives and analysts to take risks and push the envelope, and repeatedly proven that he'll stand behind them when they've acted responsibly and in good faith. Now many are asking Bush to repudiate that message by sacking Tenet.
Dumb, dumb and dangerous (IMHO).