Electing the Electable

NY Times ^ | January 31, 2004 | DAVID BROOKS

[neverdem]

Let us review the Democratic presidential primaries so far:

In the beginning, John Kerry surged to a big lead in the New Hampshire polls because he seemed so electable. He had plenty of experience, lots of money and big hair, and, as somebody said, he looks like an animatronic version of Abraham Lincoln. But then Howard Dean raised a lot of money, and New Hampshire voters figured that he was bringing so many new people into the process that he must be electable — and if he was electable, then they should probably support him because they wanted somebody who could beat George Bush.

So Dean's poll numbers rose, and the news media noticed his momentum, and other voters noticed how much great press he was getting. And that led to a self-reinforcing upward spiral of electability as more people concluded that he was electable because so many other people were concluding he was electable. People around the country saw that Dean was doing so well in New Hampshire they, too, concluded that he must be electable, a perception that led to an impressive rise in the national polls, which only enhanced his electability.

All this time, Kerry had not changed his views particularly, and he had not changed his campaign style, though he might have changed the bags under his eyes, depending on whom you ask. But savvy Democratic voters wanted to vote for somebody who could win the most votes in November, and they decided that since Dean was ahead of Kerry, therefore Kerry must be less electable, so voters moved away from Kerry. So Kerry's support plummeted, and the more his support plummeted the more he looked pathetically unelectable.

So Kerry fired his campaign manager and moved to Iowa, where fewer people had formed a conclusion about his electability. And lo and behold, Dean started saying some weird things.

These weird things didn't really bother Democratic primary voters, but primary voters imagined they might bother general election swing voters. And since electability is all about Iowa and New Hampshire liberals trying to imagine what Palm Beach County, Fla., independents will want in a presidential candidate nine months from now, this created ripples of concern that Dean might not be so electable after all. The media picked up on the doubts, which created a downward unelectability spiral.

Meanwhile, a bunch of Democratic insiders drafted Wesley Clark, who may have been a Republican and who didn't seem to have a single domestic policy idea in his head. But he did seem electable because he had worn a military uniform and thus could negate the Republicans' biggest electability advantage, national security.

Clark seemed so immediately electable to so many Democrats that the day after he announced his candidacy, he shot up toward the top of the national polls. These voters are nothing if not principled, and their primary principle is that they should win. This, after all, is a party of ideas.

But Clark decided not to campaign in Iowa because everyone knew that organization is everything in Iowa, and a defeat there might mar his aura of electability.

Suddenly Kerry, who had not changed his views particularly, nor his campaign style, began to see his poll numbers rise in Iowa because Dean seemed a little less electable. Then other Iowa voters began to notice the momentum behind Kerry, which made him look still more electable, so more voters decided that maybe Kerry was the man to support after all.

And, what do you know, Kerry won the Iowa caucuses, and from that moment on the election turned into a postmodernist literary critic's idea of heaven. It became an election about itself, with voters voting on the basis of who could win votes later on.

It's the tautology, stupid.

So New Hampshire voters who had dismissed Kerry as a pathetic, unelectable loser days before took a new look at him after Iowa and figured that if he could win an election, he must be electable (which is sort of definitional), and concluded he is a triumphantly electable winner. Now Kerry is riding this great wave of electability, and he has a huge seething army of fanatical Kerry supporters who will follow him to the death, unless, of course, he stumbles — in which case they will abandon him faster than you can say "electability."

In which case, John, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

E-mail: dabrooks@nytimes.com

[Hugin]

Now Kerry is riding this great wave of electability, and he has a huge seething army of fanatical Kerry supporters who will follow him to the death, unless, of course, he stumbles — in which case they will abandon him faster than you can say "electability."

Yeah, like if he says something stupid like the threat of terrorism is "exagerated".

[the lone wolf]

Why DemocRATs think that Kerry is electable is beyond me. He is junior Senator from Massachusetts, he must have a similar voting record to the arch-Leftist Kennedy since they service the same voters. He was Lt. Governor of Massachusetts under Dukakis, he must have been involved with all sorts of Leftist crapola. He was married to Julia Thorne, had two kids with her, then got an annulment so he could marry Teresa Heintz. The first wife was worth $200,000,000 and the second was worth over $500,000,000, so there goes the DemocRATic class warfare arguements. This means that Kerry is actually worth more than Bush. Kerry also marched in antiwar protests with Jane Fonda, and there are almost certainly photos of the two of them protesting together that will appear in Republican attack ads.

Kerry is a weak candidate. He only looks good when compared to Dean.

[Post Toasties]

Kerry's a 'populist' alright, for gigolos who marry into obscene wealth.

Too bad Dean did a face plant - maybe he'll learn a little bit how to modulate his message before he winds up on the electoral ash heap.

[NYCVirago]

Great column!

[WOSG]

Questions in debates I'd love to see ...


Q: Senator, in your life, you've had notable successes in many areas - so let me ask you:

How does a guy hook up with a woman who's loaded with millions of dollars?

[spodefly]

Ah, but if only Kerry were to rant about these despicable, lowly, brown-skinned people to the South coming here for jobs and to support their families, then he'd be a winner among the UberConservative UberMajority!

Isn't it despicable, those racists concerned about open borders and uncontrolled "illegal" immigration, as they call it? Kerry would never rant against them. He is too filled with the joy of fellowship and progressive ideals to want to enforce antiquated "border" laws.

With the wonderful plans presented by our President and his Democratic compatriots, the 20 million "undocumented workers" already here will be able to invite 4 or 5 of their family members to join them, and soon there will be almost 100 million new friendly neighbors, escaping the economic hardships of their former lands, and finding a better life right here in the infinite expanses of the US.

Only naziesque, racist haters want to have any control over stupid, out-dated concepts like nationality, borders, and laws. Not when we can create a new bilingual utopian paradise, 400 million strong and growing.

You are a voice of reason in a sea of hate, CJ. Good for you!

[neverdem]

Some moderator yanked it. I posted this Op-Ed under Editorial. I checked the "editorial sidebar" twice. I lodged a "Report abuse" complaint to the Admin Moderator. Now it's back in the Editorial sidebar, with no reply from the moderator. Go figure. Have you noticed that there is no "Extended News" sidebar now?

[neverdem]

Methinks cultural jihad was on a rant about GWB's domestic agenda and forgot to indicate /sarcasm off after looking at the profile page of JC.

[spodefly]

Methinks cultural jihad was on a rant about GWB's domestic agenda and forgot to indicate /sarcasm off after looking at the profile page of JC.

No, no, no. CJ and I believe that economic refugees from all over the world should be allowed unfettered access to the US, it schools, roads, hospitals, social services, and neighborhoods. Undocumented workers just want to make a better life for themselves and their families, and the only reason people want to "control the borders", as they call it, is because they hate brown skin people trying to make a better life for themselves right here in the good ol' USA. What possible reason could anyone have to want to limit immigration by imposing "laws" on it, aside from racist hate?

[auntdot]

I'm with you, spodefly.

A few more of these people and I won't have to mow my own lawn. Why in the heck should I care if my neighbors are being given pink slips because their employers are importing people who will work for lower wages?

This is America, right? We can put any citizen out of work that we please.

OK, my taxes may go up a bit to pay for the health care, education, and you name it of the many who just dance across our borders, but what the hey?

I'm getting my lawn cut, right?

[OldFriend]

The SATURDAY New York Times occasional prints truth to the fiction of the rest of the week in their paper. Precisely because circulation on Saturday is practically non existent.

[malia]

Kerry-- "He was married to Julia Thorne, had two kids with her, then got an annulment so he could marry Teresa Heintz."

Never heard the annulment bit--!!!!

[EternalVigilance]

Interesting description of the silliness the electorate can fall into when they are infected with the mental illnesses of the political and media chattering classes...

It's the kind of thing that happens on both ends of the political spectrum. The Dems have just perfected it into some kind of sick artform.

[FreedomPoster]

>>Why DemocRATs think that Kerry is electable is beyond me. He is junior Senator from Massachusetts, he must have a similar voting record to the arch-Leftist Kennedy since they service the same voters.

That is correct sir!

American Conservative Union voting ratings:

Senate

Senate	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	2003	2002	YOS	Life
Edward Kennedy (D)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	+	10	N/A	33	3
John Kerry (D)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	+	+	A	-	-	-	-	A	-	-	A	13	20	19	5

Above summary from here. And yes, that's 3 and 5 / 100. Wait until flyover country starts focusing on what Kerry has really said and done, and comparing that to Bush, instead of the other Democrat candidates.

[FreedomPoster]

>>Never heard the annulment bit--!!!!

You will - if Kerry carries the nomination. And many, many other things, besides. There's an 8-figure war chest that makes that a certainty.

[neverdem]

Kerry is a weak candidate. He only looks good when compared to Dean.

I think they're equally weak, but what do I know? I thought McCain was more electable than GWB, and by helping McPain I would help the Second Amendment. When I woke up, what a dream.

[OldFriend]

Most of us have been convinced that the entire dem party under the tutelege of X42 is insane.

[backhoe]

A few thoughts at random?

"Electability" seems to be the newest buzzword worming its way through leftist circles... never forget, "He's no FDR, but he's Electable" was the buzz-phrase when Clinton ran in 1992.

I believe we are being subjected to the "good cop, bad cop" or Mutt & Jeff routine-- Kerry is all the buzz now, but once how tainted he is is revealed, watch out for Edwards:

-John Kerry- some selected, informative links...--

-The Edwards Files--

[sauropod]

Our "buddy" has shown up ;-).

Well, CJ, what about the answers to the four questions I put to you?

< crickets>

[sauropod]

;-)

[sauropod]

Well heck. I'd even offer up my daughter to one of these "undocumented immigrants."

For marriage of course ;-). Can't ya just feel the love

[NYC GOP Chick]

Good catch!

[hellinahandcart]

I hope one day you pull a muscle swinging that racism club.

[Admin Moderator]

Please, let's stay on topic.

[dirtboy]

A tasty morsel from David Brooks. Maureen Dowd must have had kittens reading this one.

[dirtboy]

I hope one day you pull a muscle swinging that racism club.

It's hard to pull a muscle swinging a Whiffle bat.

[Dog Gone]

This column speaks the truth. Thanks for the ping.

Kerry doesn't scare me at all.

[alley cat]

Too bad Dean did a face plant

LOL, thanks for the amusing mental image! I will be chuckling about this all day.

[countrydummy]

What questions? What did I miss? LOL

[Travis McGee]

It's amazing how the trolls are so full of their fanaticism that they even have to drag it into totally unrelated threads.