Putin's 'Creeping Coup'

The New York Times ^ | February 9, 2004 | By WILLIAM SAFIRE

[gipper81]

Putin's 'Creeping Coup'

By WILLIAM SAFIRE

Published: February 9, 2004

UNICH — This city is no longer the venue of appeasement.

At an annual security conference here on the eve of NATO's seven-state expansion, Moscow's neo-imperialist defense minister threatened to back out of an agreement limiting the size of his armed forces on Russia's European front.

Sergei Ivanov's bluff was immediately called by U.S. Senator John McCain. The Arizonan had accused Putin's regime of a "creeping coup" against democracy within Russia, as well as a campaign to intimidate and reassert control over states — from the Baltics to Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine — that our victory in the cold war had liberated from Soviet rule.

This Russia-NATO confrontation has been brewing for a year. While France and Germany split with the rest of Europe and the U.S. over the war in Iraq, Putin took advantage of the world's distraction to crack down on internal dissent and to undermine the independence of his neighbors.

The first public inkling of U.S. concern with Putin's irredentism came in Secretary Colin Powell's trip last month to attend the inauguration of Georgia's new elected leader, signaling strong support for that nation's independence. This was accompanied by a Powell article in Izvestia uncommonly critical of Moscow's repression of the media.

Western reaction to Russia's new aggressiveness was further expressed last week in Riga, Latvia. The Baltics' surge toward independence in 1989 was the first sign of the impending crack-up of the Soviet Union. The West's coming inclusion of those three states in NATO redresses a horrific Hitler-Stalin wrong, but is galling to Moscow, which has been fostering resentment among Russian ethnics implanted there since Stalin's time.

In Latvia's capital, the Baltic states gathered with Scandinavian nations to focus European human-rights attention on internal democratic opposition to outright tyrants like Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus and the former K.G.B. crowd that runs Moldova. Though Ukraine gave up its nukes and has 1,700 troops in Iraq, it has an autocratic ruler in Leonid Kuchma, reportedly rigging its fall elections. McCain led a Congressional delegation to this Riga meeting on his way to Munich and heard the anguished story of a dissident Belarus leader whose husband is one of the "disappeared."

At the 40th Wehrkunde Conference in Munich, Ivanov unloaded on the West. The pressure point he chose was the Conventional Forces in Europe (C.F.E.) treaty, negotiated a decade ago, initialed but never signed. In 1996, as NATO prepared to admit Eastern Europe, it set up a formal relationship with Russia, assuring it that no nukes and no "substantial combat forces" would be placed close to its border. Three years later, Russia made the "Istanbul commitments" to pull its troops out of Georgia and Moldova, which it still has not done.

"We assumed those commitments in a definite military and political environment," Ivanov warned, "with the admission of the invitees to NATO, this environment will drastically change." Of the C.F.E. treaty, he asked: "Might it be another `relic of the cold war,' as the ABM treaty has been labeled some time ago" before it was "shelved to the dustbin"? He made Putin's threat plainer: "The adapted C.F.E. treaty may well end up as the ABM treaty was fated to."

Looking hard at McCain, Ivanov said, "One of the major priorities of the Russian foreign policy is our relationship with our closest neighbors . . . relations with the Commonwealth of Independent States are in no way a hallmark of Russian-brand `neo-imperialism,' as some try to depict it, but an imperative for security. . . ."

McCain is no Neville Chamberlain. "Under President Putin," he responded, "Russia has refused to comply with the terms of the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe. Russian troops occupy parts of Georgia and Moldova . . . Russian agents are working to bring Ukraine further into Moscow's orbit. Russian support sustains Europe's last dictatorship in Belarus. And Moscow has . . . enforced its stranglehold on energy supplies into Latvia in order to squeeze the democratic government in Riga."

Speaking with the freedom of a senator, McCain said "undemocratic behavior and threats to the sovereignty and liberty of her neighbors will not profit Russia . . . but will exclude her from the company of Western democracies."

As its role becomes global, NATO must not lose its original purpose: to contain the Russian bear.

[gipper81]

Putin Doctrine: Immediate Threat to Belarus

[Veritas01]

I love Russians

[Porterville]

John McCain is quite the bad ass these days.... he might be the toughest guy in the senate.

[gipper81]

John McCain is quite the bad ass these days

MCCAIN, LIEBERMAN URGE SUSPENSION OF RUSSIA G-8 MEMBERSHIP

[gipper81]

bttt

[RussianConservative]

Ahh, so Russia is neo Imperialist, yet it is US and NATO who move onto Russian border, it is EU who demand Russian resources...minus Russians....this is like reading of Arab Islamic press...damn Jews, all their fault our son blow self up, Imperialist Jews....errr. No difference. Who has bases in 100+ countries, Russia or West? Who back out of MAD?

[RussianConservative]

Yup, between him and Lieberman, US will be full time whore to all Islamics yet...go buy prayer rug while prices still cheap.

[Porterville]

But wait, are you saying that they should lay off Russia?? Honestly, I don't understand??? I understand the Russian stance against the Chechens, but the intrigue with Belarus seems pretty hot. What am I missing (again I'm a novice to the subject of Modern Moscow)

[RussianConservative]

Hmm, Belarus is interesting. Majority of peoples want unification and Belarus live off of Russian largeness for oil/gas (domestic price not export price) Luko want to be boss of new SU, so he figure, Yelstin old, he die soon and I am next so I become new great boss of SU reborn...then comes Putin, he is young and capitalist and both hate each other...but Luko is in bind, without Russian cheap oil, his economy die and so does he, with it he is absorbed by Russia (which his peoples want) but career wise, he still die...a nobody of a dieing communist party. Ukraine is close to same relationship with Socialists/Western Catholic Nationalists raping country and running it to ground.

[Porterville]

So are the ex-satellites full of intrigue and political rivalry??? Is Putin bad-or-good, he seems to be the second coming of Lenin on steroids. Where is the current book or series of articles about the Russian satellites??? It seems to me, much of the future is pivoted on Russia and not China, Europe, or even the Mid East. In my short life I recognize that which way Russia goes, so goes exactly 1/2 of the world.

[gipper81]

Ivanov Says Russia May Pull Out of Arms Treaty

The latest noise from Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov.

[gipper81]

In my short life I recognize that which way Russia goes, so goes exactly 1/2 of the world.

You'll want to do some more reading about that, my friend, because that is very dated info. When the Wall came down, the Bear went into hibernation.

[Porterville]

You think there would be much opposition to the Iraq war if Russia supported the US??? Do you think China would push Taiwan or N.Korea would behave badly if Russia told them them to behave one way or another?? Why do you think Eastern Europe is so keen to jump on board NATO so quickly?? They know that Russia is still there as a master of puppets. Russia is a powerful force in this world reorganizing its resources to make its next move.

The bear isn't in hibernation, it is hungry and stalking its prey.

[gipper81]

Where is the current book or series of articles about the Russian satellites???

Consider the commentary and history below.

Scrappy empire has no future

[gipper81]

The bear isn't in hibernation, it is hungry and stalking its prey.

I said "the Bear went into hibernation."

Now, since the Bear never liked or understood the notion of freedom, it is upset about a whole list of things. Such as? Our friendships with freedom lovers in Poland and the Baltics.

Also, the Bear is asking why it went into hibernation in the first place. Bear is thinking. Thinking hard.

[gipper81]

They know that Russia is still there as a master of puppets.

Used to be a puppet master. This is a country that said default, bankrupt, no ruples for you a couple of years ago. Bottom line: No ruples, no puppets.

[Porterville]

I have no grasp of the enormity of the intrigue surrounding the current state of the Russian territories. It has to be immense and wholly impressive with all the power and territory involved. It would make a great book.

[gipper81]

You got that right. Read a little Leon Aron at AEI when you get a chance.

[struwwelpeter]

Ukraine is close to same relationship with Socialists/Western Catholic Nationalists raping country and running it to ground.

Want some Ukrainian lessons?