Bush Gains, Horse Race a Dead Heat (Kerry down by 7 points since last week - Gallup)

GALLUP ^ | 02-10-04 | David W. Moore

[veronica]

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey finds a hypothetical presidential contest between President George W. Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry a dead heat. Bush receives 49% support among likely voters and Kerry 48%. Last week, Kerry led Bush by 7 points, 53% to 46%, but a month ago -- before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary -- Bush led Kerry by 12 points, 55% to 43%.

Bush also does slightly better this week than last against the other three major Democratic candidates.

While Bush trailed North Carolina Sen. John Edwards by one point last week, the president leads by four points now. Bush leads retired Gen. Wesley Clark by five points now, compared with three points last week. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean trails Bush by 10 points in the current poll, compared with 7 points last week. Changes since last week in the relative electoral strength of Bush vs. each of the candidates, Edwards, Clark, and Dean, are all within the poll's margin of error. Still, Bush's improvement against each of the candidates is consistent with the significant improvement in Bush's standing against Kerry.

The poll results show that the political landscape has changed dramatically since the beginning of January, when Bush enjoyed double-digit leads over the Democratic candidates. Still, it is not as positive for Democrats as it was last week, when Kerry led Bush by seven points. The change from last week could be related to a decline in the positive publicity Kerry received in the wake of his dramatic victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Whether the political landscape continues to move back in Bush's favor or stabilizes at a more competitive level remains to be seen.

Bush Approval Up to 52%

Bush's job approval is now at 52%, compared with 49% a week ago, and 59% a month ago.

GRAPHS, MORE, HERE

[The South Texan]

The silence from CNN and Chrissy Mathews is deafening.

[Semper Paratus]

Some horse race. The horses haven't left the stables yet.

[veronica]

Kerry's already wearing a bit thin, while Bush is just gearing up. :)

[babaloo]

Did I miss the "Kerry in a freefall" story somewhere?

[Guillermo]

Goodness.

Now we're subject to a daily poll on a race that isn't for 10 months.

That's roughly 300 polls from now till then...and taking into consideration there are about 3, 4 polling orgs that are regulalry posted here, we're going to see roughly 1200 of them.

[over3Owithabrain]

Looks like a Bush bounce baby! This with AWOL, WMD, and all the other BS.

[FlipWilson]

This says it all to me. The President came out of his corner and started to fight, even if only slightly. Say what you want about his appearance on MTP, but I think it was the proper strategy. Even if he did not hit the ball out of the park, at least he was out there, refuting the hatred of the Democrats. The President should continue his rope a dope strategy and then lower the boom in the tenth round.

[gathersnomoss]

Strategery.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

So...has Kerry peaked ?

[rintense]

Horse race? Don't they mean horse FACE?????

Folks, not to be Oliver Stone here, but this picture, taken Feb. 7 looks NOTHING like pictures of Kerry the previous week. I think he had a stand in. Really. Or can they do a botox reversal?

[cweese]

...i agree 100%. these polls are totally meaningless until after the first debate, imo...

[TheBigB]

The whole Kerry bump is due to publicity from the primaries and nothing else. Bush will have $200 million to spend for the general election. In MAY of 1988, Dukakis led Bush pere by TEN POINTS! Polls now mean not a darn thing!

[GROOVY]

Some of this boost is likely from his impressive (at least I thought it was) Meet The Press performance. I saw the Extreme Bush hater Bill Maher on Norville last night, and was surprised to hear him say he thought Bush got the better of Russert with the interview or something like that.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Most reptiles go thru a molting process...

[veronica]

I think this poll was taken before Bush went on MTP. Nevertheless, his numbers came back UP, AFTER David Kay's testimony. Interesting...

[petercooper]

is the race next week?

then why are people so obsessed w/ polls?

[Fresh Wind]

Did I miss the "Kerry in a freefall" story somewhere?

Yes, you must have missed it among the "Bush in freefall" stories that have been running for the last year or so.

[epluribus_2]

Maybe the people are starting to question whether the answer to America's problems were ever to be found in the Democratic Liberal Senate, which Kerry is a posterboy.

[The G Man]

"Horse race? Don't they mean horse FACE?????"

Good one! I got a big chuckle out of The Weekly Standard cover with F'ing Kerry and the caption "Why the long face?"

[Shryke]

Every time I read an article based on these absurd "polls", I recollect the results of a poll I took a long time ago:

100% of all people that have any faith left in these "polls" are shmucks.

[Republican Red]

I hope Kerry isn't destroyed until after he gets the nomination. I know the mainstream media will be cooperative in downplaying any bad Kerry info. These poll numbers will never be mentioned by any news outlet except for Fox and and the Washington Times.

Kerry is taking some bad advise in bashing the President on his National Guard Service. I believe he is trying to deflect any criticism he will get from being weak on Defense. It comes off as just plain mean, hypocritical and unworthy of a Presidential candidate.

The Dems seemed to have rushed Kerry into the spotlight without vetting him properly for a national campaign.

[veronica]

It's an addiction I wish I could break. :)

[bioprof]

Shhhhhh.....we don't want another scared little girly man Dem to slither away too soon ( remember The Dean ) ! We need to keep wringing our hands in dispair ( try to keep a straight face ) over the - horrors - thought of Kerry being the nominee.

Down points after a week where he has been winning everything - not a good sign and the " Hanoi John & Jane Go to Washington" movie hasn't even been released yet! ( will the moderator please scrub the last paragraph in case any DU'ers are lurking downwind).

[joesnuffy]

The doctors admitted they made a terrible mistake..
Kerry came in and said he wanted Bo-Tox injected into his face
They thought Kerry said Butt-tocks
"you gotta admit we did do a good job of duplicating a buttocks" the docs said "not our fault the guy doesnt speak clearly"
there you have it...

[dead]

I'll bet we hear about all those disenfranchised voters who didn't get to vote last week when they wanted Kerry.

The evil Bush Supreme Court would likely rule that the election must take place in November instead, thereby selecting not electing Bush.

[trebb]

Some horse race. The horses haven't left the stables yet.

That sums it up for me - all these "matchups" are just part of the Dims attempts to sway people that they have a viable candidate...

[Conservative Coulter Fan]

[jmaroneps37]

While this is nice news, this is an absolute blatant rat psyops poll. Here's my question: How is it that our fury friends a gallup can just happen to find a survey sample that produces 97% of respondents who have an opinion one way or the other? Also, if these same rat pollsters got a survey sample group that swung 8 points during a wall to wall, all lurch all of the time week,how can we even give them 5 mins. to read their BS results?

[babaloo]

You are right. We cannot have Kerry peak too early. Mum's the word...zippered up...lost my head and forgot the gameplan... forgive me, please.

[Quilla]

Senator John Kerry (D-Vietnam) has been working very hard behind the scenes to appear presidential. He has amassed a group of foreign policy advisors larger than any of his fellow democratic presidential contenders. Of course, this early in a political race, not that much foreign policy advice is needed if a candidate can repeat the "I served in Vietnam" mantra and muddy the waters at the same time. What better way to stir things up with respect to foreign affairs and national security than to accuse the Bush Administration of outing the wife of one of his advisor's as a CIA agent.

Check out this list of foreign affairs advisors to Kerry. Source: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2436

Rand Beers – former special assistant to President George W. Bush for combating terrorism

Greg Craig – former director of policy planning, State Department

Nelson Cunningham – special advisor to Clinton for Latin American affairs

Dan Feldman – member of the National Security Council under Clinton

Gary Hart – former U.S. senator

Lt. Gen. Claudia Kennedy – former deputy Army chief of staff for intelligence

William Perry – secretary of defense under Clinton

Joe Wilson – member of the National Security Council under Clinton

Jonathan Winer – deputy assistant secretary of state under Clinton

Jon Wolfsthal – former nonproliferation policy advisor, Department of Energy

Lee Wolosky – former director for transnational threats at the National Security Council under Clinton and George W. Bush

[smiley]

Haaahahahah.....my thoughts exactly....

[love n hate tattoo]

the so called "experts" like peggy noonan get it wrong again....HAHAHA!!!

[ReaganRevolution]

That would be an excellent commercial. Why Senator, why did you want the country to be weak on defense. He can't be trusted.

[veronica]

Greg Craig – former director of policy planning, State Department...

One of the scums who sent Elian Gonzalez back to the Cuban gulag.

[Sabatier]

Well, if he's a shape shifter...

[chiefqc]

William Perry – Did'nt he play Football at one time?

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

[rintense]

Also notice this is a GALLUP poll...

[Quilla]

Yea, I think his middle name was Amana. ;-)

[Wphile]

Sheesh...clinton, clinton, clinton people.

John Kerry makes me want to vomit. He is so full of sanctimony, it's practically dripping from his mouth. I, I, I, I...I bet he could even best clinton in the use of "I" category.

FWIW, I watched the MTP interview last night and I thought W did fine. Peggy Noonan is all wet. She's so caught up in the beltway think and talk that she has totally lost any connection with real people.

[thesummerwind]

The President should continue his rope a dope strategy and then lower the boom in the tenth round.

How many rounds in your fight? If it is a Heavyweight Championship, and I think it is, that's 15.

I think you meant 10 rounds, so if you did, I say Bush pound Kerry with hard jabs to the ribs from the beginning of the fight, and start pounding him hard around the seventh round! Don't wait 'til the tenth. It might be too late.

[alloysteel]

Perhaps we may discover that this was, indeed, the high point of the Kerry campaign for the Presidency. Unless and until Kerry comes up with a strategy with more meat to it than "Bush is bad", with no substantiating arguments in support of that assertion, he is doomed.

Perhaps Kerry might be able to use Dubya's membership in some secret society at Yale as a wedge issue against him, trying to picture a dark conspiracy to control the nation through shadowy manipulations. Oops, seems like Kerry himself was a member of exactly this same secret society....

[spokeshave]

"The doctors admitted they made a terrible mistake.. Kerry came in and said he wanted Bo-Tox injected into his face

They thought Kerry said Butt-tocks

"you gotta admit we did do a good job of duplicating a buttocks" the docs said "not our fault the guy doesnt speak clearly"

there you have it..."

Its because he looks like the north end of a south bound camel

[Quilla]

Ah, boxing, my favorite sport. FWIW, championship fights are now only 12 rounds.

[international american]

Keep posting this until November!!

[NeoCaveman]

Or can they do a botox reversal?

Maybe the cheap botox really doesn't last as long as the expensive stuff.

[international american]

Also the Ortega photo if you have it:)

[thesummerwind]

Ah, boxing, my favorite sport. FWIW, championship fights are now only 12 rounds.

Really? I've been away too long. When did they change a Heavyweight Championship fight from 15 down to 12 rounds?