Scientific Poll: House Race - SD Herseth(D) 58% - Diedrich(R) 29%

keloland.com ^ | 02/11/04 | keloland.com

[KQQL]

If the special election were held today, Stephanie Herseth would be the newest member of Congress.

And she'd win big. Our KELOLAND-TV/Argus Leader scientific poll shows nearly twice as many people would choose democrat Herseth over republican Larry Diedrich.

We polled 800 registered voters over three days last week. All tell us they regularly vote in state elections. And if their opinion of the candidates stays the same, in June they'll be sending Stephanie Herseth to Washington.

When sixth graders line up for an autograph, a political candidate knows her name is recognized. And more importantly, people who "are" old enough to vote are equally enthusiastic about Stephanie Herseth.

Our poll shows 58 percent of voters would choose Herseth if the election were held today. 29 percent would vote for Larry Diedrich and 13 percent are undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Herseth says, "Well certainly we're very pleased but we know these are early numbers. There's a long way to go in this election."

Political analyst Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report says, "Stephanie Herseth starts the race with great name recognition from her previous race in 2002. She is seen as a rising star here in Washington and among democrats back in South Dakota."

While Diedrich is 30 points behind, voters mostly told us they didn't feel strongly one way or the other about him. 23 percent didn't recognize his name.

Diedrich says, "We'd been at it for a week when the poll was taken and hadn't spent a dime so actually we're very surprised and happy with where we're at."

And political analyst Amy Walter says with the election four months away, Diedrich can still make it a close race.

Walter says, "There's enough time to go in, define himself, define her and define this race.

If you look at the poll numbers by gender, you'll see 55 percent of men prefer Herseth, compared with 61 percent of women. 31 percent of men would vote for Diedrich, and 27 percent of women would choose the republican candidate.

Walter says in the end she expects it to come down to just a few percentage points, and the winner will be whoever convinces voters they'll do the most for South Dakota.

Walter says, "Being able to send that message that you can go to Congress, get things done, bring things back to the state. You're savvy enough, smart enough, that's gonna be a big selling point."

Thursday night at six we'll have the latest numbers in the South Dakota Senate race. If you'd like to read more about our poll, look in Thursday's Argus Leader.

[KQQL]

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[KQQL]

By the way Senate numbers will be as follows.

Daschle 50% -Thune 43%

Mason Dixon Polls - MOE+/-3.5%

[Pubbie]

*Ping*!

[KQQL]

Herseth has wide lead over Diedrich
From Staff Reports


published: 2/11/2004

Significant support from Republicans, women and Sioux Falls residents, combined with the low name recognition of her opponent, gives Stephanie Herseth a wide lead in the U.S. House special-election race, according to a poll of likely South Dakota voters.

The telephone survey, conducted Feb. 5-7, measured responses from 800 registered voters. It showed Democrat Herseth with 58 percent and Republican Larry Diedrich with 29 percent. Thirteen percent were undecided.

The sampling, done for the Argus Leader and KELO-TV by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Diedrich and Herseth will run in a June 1 special election to fill the vacancy created when U.S. Rep. Bill Janklow resigned following his felony second-degree manslaughter conviction. The winner will serve until January 2005.

http://www.argusleader.com/update/Wednesdayarticle4.shtml

[KQQL]

POLL DETAILS


http://www.argusleader.com/news/extra/0212_ushousepoll.shtml

[madprof98]

Good Lord! This woman is an abortion-rights candidate, supported by Emily's List. A Hillary Clinton of the North, it seems. I can't believe this is the same state that is in the process of outlawing abortion altogether!

[Clintonfatigued]

This looks worse than it is. For one thing, Herseth is only 31 y/o, and children tend to prefer a younger candidate when faced with a choice like this. Also, she is far, far better-known than Larry Diedrich, an obscure state Senator. In the last election, Herseth spent over $1 million to get her name out, and she has relatives who held statewide office. There is time for Diedrich to catch up, but he needs to use the time wisely.

[puroresu]

I doubt that the voters know she's a pro-abort, pro-gay agenda, feminist extremist. She certainly won't tell them, and the media probably won't, either. So the Republican will need to go to work and get the word out!

[JohnnyZ]

These numbers are ugly but we had to expect it'd be something like this at this point.

[chimera]

Just one more bit of data that makes me think the Republicans better start paying more attention to the House races. Everyone has been focusing on the Presidential contest and understandably so, and after that everyone talks about gaining seats in the Senate, but I fear there is a substantial chance of significant erosion of the majority margin in the House or, in the event of a catastrophic Bush loss, reversion to Minority Party status. There was another announcement of the retirement in Florida recently of a Republican there, which opens that seat up. The Special Election in KY looks to be going to the Rats, and now this SD (potential) loss. Add up enough losses here and there, and you're looking at the possibility of losing the House.

[Pubbie]

*Ping*!

[BoozeHag]

She's a Georgetown graduate.

[HostileTerritory]

For what it's worth, there is no way we lose that open seat in Florida.

[Theodore R.]

I suspect that Democrat special election victories for the House in KY (Feb. 17) and SD (June) will be hailed as a trend of shifting political winds. The twin Democrat victories will even be linked to the rising John Kerry phenomenon. In 1995, the Democrats turned around Bill Clinton's previous decline in the polls by claiming that the very narrow election of Democrat Paul Patton as governor of KY was a clear sign that the Democrat was back on the offensive. The Democrats went on to win the 1996 presidential election as well as the 1999 KY gubernatorial election by a huge margin. Now the return of Chandler to high office in KY will be proclaimed as the start of Democrat resurgence nationwide. It seems that the Republican House candidates in the special elections lack the necessary name ID to win. They aren't bad candidates per se; they just aren't as well known as their Democrat opponents.

[JohnnyZ]

Just one more bit of data that makes me think the Republicans better start paying more attention to the House races.

What in the world makes you think they aren't paying attention???????

There was another announcement of the retirement in Florida recently of a Republican there, which opens that seat up. The Special Election in KY looks to be going to the Rats, and now this SD (potential) loss. Add up enough losses here and there, and you're looking at the possibility of losing the House.

If you really think the Democrats can overcome Texas redistricting and pick up the 16 or so seats they'd need to win the House, you're gonna hafta back that up with something other than hysteria. They would basically have to run the table.

[KQQL]

Good Lord! This woman is an abortion-rights candidate, supported by Emily's List. A Hillary Clinton of the North, it seems. I can't believe this is the same state that is in the process of outlawing abortion altogether

WELL: It's called PORK>!

[KQQL]

If the GOP loses KY6 and SD , then the GOP will be 10 seats away from being a MINORITY PARTY IN CONGRESS in 05.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Post 9-11, Democrats picked up the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey. The Dems claimed Bush had no coattails, and the Congress would be theirs for the taking in 2002. Well, the rest is history on that front.

I do think name reg. is hurting both the SD and KY races, but at least the KY race is tightening; we may keep that one. Even if we don't, we'll take the KY seat being left by Ken Lucas. There's an open Dem seat down here in Louisiana and another seat potentially competitive. I don't think we should panic over losing the House over this, esp. with the Texas redistricting map. We're just not going to run the table every single time.

[KQQL]

“Recognizing that South Dakota has more women per capita who work outside the home than any other state, Stephanie Herseth supports the central issues that affect their lives,” said Ellen R. Malcolm, president of EMILY’s List. “

http://www.emilyslist.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2002-06-05.184.phtml

[Torie]

Well we all knew this CD seat was a write-off once Thune decided against running.

[Torie]

I really don't see any big shift yet. The SD seat has a very strong and well known Dem, in the context of a disgraced ex-incumbent. The Kentucky district is fairly evenly balanced in local elections (it used to be clearly Dem not long ago), and the Dem is very well known and congenial, and the race is fairly close. Meanwhile Stenholm lags in the polls for his race against another GOP incumbent.

[Torie]

The Delay pad in Texas still puts things a bit out of reach for the Dems, absent a fairly decisive shift. A bunch of those sophomore Pubbies who won in tight races would have to be shown in trouble, and very few of them are.

[KQQL]

KY UPDATE:

---

Democrats say that Chandler is still leading, but some privately acknowledge they’re seeing the same trend as their Republican opponents are, and they’re not taking Tuesday’s election for granted. After all, in the Bush age, we’re seeing this law of political physics at work: What goes up, must come down. And vice versa.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4242759/

---

[KQQL]

I know...it certainly helps

[JohnnyZ]

A bunch of those sophomore Pubbies who won in tight races would have to be shown in trouble, and very few of them are.

I'm looking at Burns-Renzi-Hostettler-Gingrey-Porter-Beauprez-Rogers as the most vulnerable incumbents -- think that's about right? Although the Rats don't have an opponent yet for Porter (ha ha!) and it's not like he, Gingrey, or Beauprez have hurt themselves in office. Rogers has lots of dough and I think he'll be fine, too, especially assuming Kerry's the nominee.

Burns has a tough district and probably will have a decent challenger, Renzi has a tough district and challenger, and Hostettler hasn't been racking up big margins and has a strong challenger.

[AuH2ORepublican]

These numbers will change rapidly once Diedrich runs ads that make people think that Stephanie Herseth's middle name is "Pro-abortion." See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1076020/posts?page=72#72

[puterstuff]

How can you say that Diedrich is a obscure State Senator? Please explain. Do you know anything about him? He has tons of experience more than Herseth could shake a finger at.

[Clintonfatigued]

Diedrich has experience, but he doesn't have a lot of name recognition. I called him "obscure" because not many people have heard of him. And while Stephanie Herseth has no elective experience, she is widely known due to her well-financed 2002 campaign and the fact she comes from a prominent political family.

[puterstuff]

Thanks for explaining for comment. I stand behind him 100%. From what I have been told he is doing good and the $ are coming in GREAT! Remember the campaign is new, 2.5 weeks against Herseths 2.5 YEARS. He message will get out and it is going out!