Skip to comments.Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Six
Posted on 02/22/2004 10:35:52 AM PST by DalesEdited on 02/22/2004 12:46:17 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this sixth installment, the random state generator presented me with Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Mississippi.
|Electoral Votes: 6|
Background: Kansas has been a clean sweep for the GOP since Johnson beat Goldwater.
Punditry: Currently an 8 point lead for Bush at a time where Kerry is riding high in the polls in a state that always goes Republican and last time was well into the double digits? Sounds like a Strong Advantage for Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 20|
Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.
|2/7/03||Ohio Poll||Link||RV||4%||Bush||59%||Unnamed Democrat||36%|
Punditry: Many Democrat second guessers think that Gore would be President today had he concentrated on Ohio rather than Florida. Given how the rest of the rust belt voted, this is a tempting analysis. However, the history of Ohio's Presidential votes shows that it was an understandable decision to go elsewhere, as Republicans have dominated the Buckeye state. While Bush only won by five points last time, the polls to date show that he has solidified his standing here. I cannot be as bullish as the polls would indicate, but I still have Ohio as Leaning for Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 21|
Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close.
|11/23/03||Muhlenberg College||Link||430 RV||4.7%||Bush||47%||Kerry||40%|
Punditry: Bush lost Pennsylvania by five points, and he currently trails in the polls here by five points. Earlier polls showed him doing better than that, and Pennsylvania is a state which has been winnable by either party for quite some time (as shown by it having two Republican senators while having gone Democrat the last three elections). This is going to be a battleground state, and right now it rates a Slight Advantage for the Democrats.
|Electoral Votes: 10|
Background: Since the 1960 election, the only Republicans to carry Maryland were Nixon for his re-elect, Reagan for his re-elect, and George H. W. Bush during his first campaign. Clinton did not need Perot to win here either time. This is a Democrat state.
|1/12/04||Potomac, Inc||Link||1,200 LV||2.8%||Bush||41%||Unnamed Democrat||51%|
Punditry: There will be many interesting states this election. Maryland is not one of them. This state has a Strong Advantage for the Democrats.
|Electoral Votes: 6|
Background: Mississippi is a southern state first, second, and last. JFK finished behind Henry Byrd here. George Wallace won the state by more than a 2-1 margin over the second place finisher. The only Democrat to win since 1956? Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford-- and Carter came very close to beating Reagan here. But as the Democrats have moved left, Mississippi has been willing to cast votes for Yankee Republicans, as Clinton lost both times here.
|12/22/03||Associated Press||Link||RV||4%||Bush||49%||Unnamed Democrat||29%|
Punditry: The same comment I made for Maryland applies here, only for the other side. Strong Advantage for Bush.
|ND (3)||CO (9)||GA (15)||NV (5)||-||NM (5)||CA (55)||NY (31)||VT (3)|
|AL (9)||SC (8)||NC (15)||FL (27)||-||ME (4)||-||DE (3)||MA (12)|
|MT (3)||KY (8)||MO (11)||-||-||MI (17)||-||MD (10)||DC (3)|
|WY (3)||KS (6)||VA (13)||-||-||PA (21)||-||-||RI (4)|
|UT (5)||MS (6)||OH (20)||-||-||-||-||-||-|
|Undesignated electoral votes: 192|
Next installment: Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, North Dakota, and West Virginia.
Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.
And thanks to Nita for doing the pings.
Otherwise, I'd say there is a LOT of similarities between them.
A slim hope, but one which has a bit of possiblity.
Demographic shifts have also been noticeable. Quite a few immigrants in areas that are normally "safe" for Republicans. My county (Franklin) went "blue" the last time and this has in the past been a conservative area.
Anecdotal data: quite a few "Kerry for President" bumper stickers have been cropping up, nothing yet for Bush. Just anecdotal, but it shows the Rats are getting organized and energized quite early in the run. Bush and the Republicans shouldn't let them get too far ahead, because catch-up is often a difficult task.
Someone here on FR used the cheating husband analogy which bares repeating. That Rove will cheat on his base but only enough not to force them to leave.
Giving money to the RNC is like sending Rove out on a night on the town to do what I described above.
Others, save me the standard answer: But a 3rd party vote is a throw away vote, stay with Bush this one time and we'll fix it next time (and next time, and next time...)
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