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Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Ten
Various

Posted on 02/22/2004 5:24:26 PM PST by Dales

Edited on 02/23/2004 3:48:05 AM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this tenth installment, the remaining states: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.


Tennessee
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 47%

Background: Carter against Ford, Clinton twice (both times needing help from Perot), and Johnson. Republicans generally have had success here since Truman.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
12/8/03 Mason-Dixon Link LV 4% Bush 52% Unnamed Democrat 37%
1/29/04 Mason-Dixon NA LV 5% Bush 47% Kerry 43%

Punditry: Kerry has enjoyed a nice bounce here, but the state still Leans for Bush.


New Hampshire
Electoral Votes: 4
2000 Result
Bush 48%
Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
4/27/03 Franklin Pierce College Link 600 RV 4% Bush 42% Unnamed Democrat 42%
9/11/03 American Research Group Link RV 4% Bush 50% Unnamed Democrat 36%
10/16/03 Research 2000 Link RV 4% Bush 51% Kerry 39%
12/10/03 American Research Group NA RV 4% Bush 50% Unnamed Democrat 38%
10/16/03 Research 2000 Link RV 4% Bush 51% Kerry 39%
1/20/04 Associated Press Link 600 LV 4% Bush 55% Kerry 40%
2/20/04 University of New Hampshire Link 511 LV 4% Bush 38% Kerry 53%

Punditry: That last poll sure is different than the results all of the other polls done in the state have been showing. As such, I am treating it with extreme skepticism, especially since the American Research Group is really the poll to watch for NH (they are based there). Just to be cautious, I will designate New Hampshire a Slight Advantage for Bush, but if the next ARG poll shows the lead holding I will likely upgrade this rating.


Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 47.83%
Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
5/03 Badger Poll Link LV 4% Bush 53% Unnamed Democrat 42%
10/28/03 Badger Poll Link LV 4% Bush 46% Unnamed Democrat 45%
1/27/04 Badger Poll Link LV 4% Bush 38% Unnamed Democrat 54%

Punditry: Quite a reversal in Bush's fortunes according to the polls here, especially considering it is the same polling company. Wisconsin is one of the states that is often considered a possible pickup for Bush this time, and his previous numbers show it is possible, but it will take quite a change from where things are right now, which is that the state Leans for the Democrats.


Oklahoma
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Bush 60%
Gore 38%

Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: Sooner country has put away their Texas animous for Presidential candidates, and this remains Safe for Bush.


Texas
Electoral Votes: 34
2000 Result
Bush 58%
Gore 39%

Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: Texas is Safe for Bush. It is Bush country.


Summary Table
  Bush Democrat
  Safe Strong Lean Slight Tossup Slight Lean Strong Safe
  ND (3) CO (9) GA (15) NV (5) OR (7) NM (5) CA (55) NY (31) VT (3)
  AL (9) SC (8) NC (15) FL (27) WV (5) ME (4) WI (10) DE (3) MA (12)
  MT (3) KY (8) MO (11) NJ (15) - MI (17) - MD (10) DC (3)
  WY (3) KS (6) VA (13) NH (4) - PA (21) - WA (11) RI (4)
  UT (5) MS (6) OH (20) - - IA (7) - CT (7) HI (4)
  ID (4) SD (3) IN (11) - - MN (10) - IL (21) -
  AK (3) LA (9) AZ (10) - - - - - -
  NE (5) - AR (6) - - - - - -
  OK (7) - TN (11) - - - - - -
  TX (34) - - - - - - - -
Designation
Total:
76 49 112 51 12 64 65 83 26
Candidate
Total:
237 127 174


Next installment: A closer look at the battleground states, and updates to a few states that have new polls.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven
Installment Eight
Installment Nine


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: New Hampshire; US: Oklahoma; US: Tennessee; US: Texas; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: dales; ecb; electionpresident; electoralcollege; gwb2004
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If you see new polls for individual states, please ping me. Thanks.
1 posted on 02/22/2004 5:24:27 PM PST by Dales
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To: Neets
Ten. One to go (the wrapup and look at the battleground) before we go weekly.
2 posted on 02/22/2004 5:25:14 PM PST by Dales
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To: Dales; nevergiveup; scan58; AuH2ORepublican; BoomerBob; Galatians513; onyx; KJacob; ...
Ten!!
3 posted on 02/22/2004 5:26:03 PM PST by Neets (Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
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To: Dales
Check your mail, boss.
4 posted on 02/22/2004 5:27:11 PM PST by Neets (Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
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To: Dales
Excellent work dude. Hard work likes yours is what makes FR superior to all other sites, of any political leaning.
5 posted on 02/22/2004 5:31:13 PM PST by mikenola
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To: Dales
Good Job dales. Counting the Slights it is 288 Bush 248 Kerry. Hopefully this is an advantage that will only grow as the Election gets closer and Bush begins to Define Kerry.

I am going to make an early prediction that Bush will get around 350 EV. I think there are many states that wouldn't vote for Bush no matter what, but I think he will pull away from Kerry as the campaign gets in full swing.

That is of course if things stay as they are now. Some huge gaffe either way, serious scandal, or earth shaking event could change the entire dynamic.

6 posted on 02/22/2004 5:31:21 PM PST by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
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To: Neets; Dales

Hey Superman --- already ten!

Hi Neets.
7 posted on 02/22/2004 5:31:57 PM PST by onyx (Your secrets are safe with me and all my friends.)
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To: Dales
Wisconsin lost gore by 5,708 votes in 2000. A ton of voter fraud. Just do a google search for 'Wisconsin Voter Fraud'. It would be nice to find a different poll other than the Badger poll. It's run from UW Madison, the midwest's version of Berkley. That might explain the dramatic shift in numbers, they didn't like the outcome.
8 posted on 02/22/2004 5:34:41 PM PST by Indy Pendance
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To: onyx
Hi toots!! Howya doin??

I was severely absent earlier in the day due my 5 y/o niece, aka computer wiz, had commandeered my computer for the day!!!
9 posted on 02/22/2004 5:35:53 PM PST by Neets (Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
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To: Neets; Dales

Pretty good, girlfriend. I am certain Dales is happy to see you. Trust me on this. :)
10 posted on 02/22/2004 5:36:54 PM PST by onyx (Your secrets are safe with me and all my friends.)
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To: onyx; Dales
HA!!!!!!!!!!

I am sure he is....I am usually around here for most of the days on on Sat and Sun...and the one day I am NOT!!
11 posted on 02/22/2004 5:38:08 PM PST by Neets (Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
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To: Dales; Neets
Thanks very much.

You've created a good basis for a conversation.

Polite, of course, as always in FReepistan. ;^)
12 posted on 02/22/2004 5:39:08 PM PST by headsonpikes (Spirit of '76 bttt!)
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To: Dales
The totals are off a bit. Looks like the President has a good starting point. It'll be interesting to watch for trends within states as the campaign progresses. Good job.
13 posted on 02/22/2004 5:40:19 PM PST by Quicksilver ([Liberals] aren't liberal at all when it comes to freedom; they want control over everything. --Rush)
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To: headsonpikes
Do I get retroactive pay now that I am here to do the ping list!!

;-)
14 posted on 02/22/2004 5:41:02 PM PST by Neets (Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
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To: Dales
looking forward to the last installment. Thanks for all your work.
15 posted on 02/22/2004 5:41:38 PM PST by not_apathetic_anymore
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To: Dales
Your numbers in the table don't add up.
16 posted on 02/22/2004 5:41:58 PM PST by Henchster
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To: Dales
These installments are great. Are you going to update them in the next few months?
17 posted on 02/22/2004 5:44:43 PM PST by Kuksool
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To: Dales
The total of the three right hand columns, which you show as 174, appears to be only 161.
18 posted on 02/22/2004 5:48:45 PM PST by Chris Talk (What Earth now is, Mars once was. What Mars now is, Earth will become.)
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To: Henchster
They do now. Thanks for the heads up.
19 posted on 02/22/2004 5:48:59 PM PST by Dales
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To: Neets
Sure - at time and-a-half. ;^)
20 posted on 02/22/2004 5:49:03 PM PST by headsonpikes (Spirit of '76 bttt!)
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To: Dales
I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin.

Haha... lighten up, Francis!

21 posted on 02/22/2004 5:49:17 PM PST by ambrose ("John Kerry has blood of American soldiers on his hands" - Lt. Col. Oliver North)
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To: headsonpikes
WOW!! Thanks dude!!
22 posted on 02/22/2004 5:49:58 PM PST by Neets (Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
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To: Chris Talk
It's been fixed.
23 posted on 02/22/2004 5:50:33 PM PST by Dales
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To: Dales
ping
24 posted on 02/22/2004 5:52:26 PM PST by Poundstone
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To: Dales
Agree for the most part. I have Bush taking Texas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

I have the dem taking Wisconsin in a toss up, as well as New Hampshire due to Kerry being a neighbor and New Englander, although New Hampshire is always a tossup.

25 posted on 02/22/2004 6:09:44 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("You know it don't come easy, the road of the gypsy" - Iron Eagle)
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To: Dales; Trajan88; MeekOneGOP; COEXERJ145
If you do a mouse click on Texas, you get the information for Utah.
26 posted on 02/22/2004 6:10:15 PM PST by Paleo Conservative (Do not remove this tag under penalty of law.)
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To: Dan from Michigan
Normally I wouldnt agree that NH would go DEM just because the DEM candidate is from neighbouring MA. GHW Bush won alomst 66% of the vote in 1988 in NH.


I can see Bush losing the popular vote and winning the EV again.
27 posted on 02/22/2004 6:12:23 PM PST by raloxk
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To: Chris Talk
its right at 174
28 posted on 02/22/2004 6:15:16 PM PST by raloxk
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To: Paleo Conservative; Dales; Trajan88; COEXERJ145
Oh ! I forgot to tell ya. The Republic of Texas has annexed Utah now ! ;^)

29 posted on 02/22/2004 6:15:48 PM PST by MeekOneGOP (The Democrats believe in CHOICE. I have chosen to vote STRAIGHT TICKET GOP for years !!)
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To: Dan from Michigan
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2000 BY County - BushVotes - GoreVotes - Nader - Total - Bush% - Gore% - Nader %

Cheshire (Keene) 13793 17382 1750 33308 41% 52% 5%
Strafford (Rochester) 21108 25400 2273 49313 43% 52% 5%
Merrimack (Concord) 30028 30622 2343 63541 47% 48% 4%
Grafton (Woodsvile) 18092 18326 1783 38652 47% 47% 5%
Hillsborough (Manchester) 80649 77625 5465 165367 49% 47% 3%
Rockingham (Portsmouth) 65860 61628 5213 133916 49% 46% 4%
Coos (rural North) 7329 6570 463 14605 50% 45% 3%
Sullivan (Newport) 9304 8224 845 18610 50% 44% 5%
Carroll (Tamworth) 12597 9852 1086 23802 53% 41% 5%
Belknap (Laconia) 14799 10719 977 26721 55% 40% 4%

30 posted on 02/22/2004 6:18:41 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("You know it don't come easy, the road of the gypsy" - Iron Eagle)
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To: Dan from Michigan
As for Wisconsin, can he improve his numbers in the NW part of the state???
31 posted on 02/22/2004 6:20:26 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("You know it don't come easy, the road of the gypsy" - Iron Eagle)
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To: raloxk
Trouble is all the flatlanders moving there.
32 posted on 02/22/2004 6:22:08 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("You know it don't come easy, the road of the gypsy" - Iron Eagle)
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To: Dales; Neets
Safe, Strong and Leaning


Graphic generated at www.edwardsforprez.com

33 posted on 02/22/2004 6:22:30 PM PST by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: Dales; Neets
Safe, Strong, Leaning and Slight.


Graphic generated at www.edwardsforprez.com

34 posted on 02/22/2004 6:24:50 PM PST by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: Dales; ambrose; Torie; Pubbie
SENATE POLLS:



AK:

Knowles 44.6% - Murkowski 40.6% - Sykes (G) 3.0% -
Others 4.8% - Undecided 7.0%
Ivan Moore Research
MOE+/-4.4% 02/04/04
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4157338

Knowles (+1.6%) - Murkowski
Ivan Moore Research
MOE+/-4.4% 01/04/04

Knowles 44.2% - Murkowski 42.9% - Others 6.2% - Undecided 6.7%
Ivan Moore Research
MOE+/-4.4% 11/16/03


CA

Boxer 53% - GOP Nominee 36%
Public Policy Institute
MOE+/-3% (Reg Voters) 2/8-16/04


FL:

Castor 35% - Martinez 32%
Castor 36% - McCollum 35%
Crist 41% - Castor 35%
Mason Dixon Poll
MOE+/-4% (Reg Voters) 11/17-21/03
http://www.wesh.com/politics/2664621/detail.html


GA:

Isakson 37% - Collins 11%
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/1103/28pollsenate.html



LA

Vitter 33% - Kennedy 23% - John 19% - Undecided 25%
Public Opinion Strategies(R)
MOE+/-?% 02/04
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/articles.aspx?aid=1140

Vitter 34% - John 16% - Kennedy 15% - Bernhard 4% - Undecided 31%
Penn, Schoen & Berland Inc
MOE+/-4.4% (Reg Voters) 01/22-24/04
The poll was commissioned by the Kennedy Campaign.

John 34% - Vitter 31%


Ieyoub 28% - Vitter 15% - John 15% - Terrell 13%
Advocate poll
MOE+/-3.6% 12/01-09/03
http://www.2theadvocate.com/stories/121703/new_race001.shtml


MO:

Bond 52% - Farmer 35% - Undecided 13%
Research 2000
MOE+/-4% (Likely Voters) 01/30/04


NC:

Bowles 45% - Burr 40% - Undecided 15%
Research 2000
MOE+/-4% (Likely Voters) 01/05-08/04
http://www.newsobserver.com/dome/story/3216106p-2884393c.html

Bowles 43% - Burr 40% - Undecided 17%
Research 2000
MOE+/-4% (Likely Voters) 11/03

Bowles 42% - Burr 31%
Market Research Insight
MOE+/-3.5% 09/16-23/03
http://www.centredaily.com/mld/observer/news/editorial/7049463.htm



OK:

Carson 47% - Humphreys 36%
Consumer Logic for Tulsa World
MOE+/-?% (Reg Voters) 02/04/04
http://www.kfor.com/Global/story.asp?S=1631801

Humphreys 41% - Carson 38%
CMA Strategies(R)
MOE+/-4.3% (Reg Voters) 11/03

*Oklahoma Substitute
*Dr.Tom Coburn, the conservative country doctor from Muskogee, Okla.,
who has published a scathing account of his six years in Congress
("Breach of Trust"), is considering running for a U.S. Senate seat
from Oklahoma that Republicans are in danger of losing.
Former Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys, is not connecting with the grass roots.
http://www.intellivu.com/main.asp?brand=&fnum=142&pathb=/articles1/rnovak/novak012404.htm


PA
Spector 50% - Hoeffel 31%
Quinnipiac University Poll
MOE+/-2.7% (Reg Voters) 02/10-16/04
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10183.xml


SC:

The poll showed none of the GOP candidates could decisively
beat Democratic candidate Inez Tenenbaum.
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/sunnews/news/local/7465708.htm

Beasley 45% - Tenenbaum 35%
(Beasley joined the race 01/15/04)
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/local/7714012.htm


SD:

Daschle 48% - Thune 45%
Rasmussen Reports
MOE+/-4.5% (Likely Voters) 02/11/04
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/South%20Dakota%20Senate.htm

Daschle 50% - Thune 43%
Mason Dixon Poll
MOE+/-3.5% (Reg Voters) 02/07/04
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1077170/posts

Daschle 50% - Thune 44%
Mason Dixon Poll
MOE+/-5% (Reg Voters) 11/03/03
35 posted on 02/22/2004 6:28:09 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: Dales
If Bush can keep the leaners, pick off FL and NV, he only needs 1 more state .... pretty good odds.
36 posted on 02/22/2004 6:34:15 PM PST by VRWC For Truth
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To: Dan from Michigan
what is a flat-lander and where are they moving?
37 posted on 02/22/2004 6:43:34 PM PST by raloxk
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To: KQQL
"The poll showed none of the GOP candidates could decisively
beat Democratic candidate Inez Tenenbaum.
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/sunnews/news/local/7465708.htm "

talk about blantant media bias. 10 points isnt decisive?

38 posted on 02/22/2004 6:44:56 PM PST by raloxk
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To: Dan from Michigan
I see what you mean thanks
39 posted on 02/22/2004 6:47:22 PM PST by raloxk
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To: SC Swamp Fox
I like the graphic, but you have to take New Jersey out of the Bush column. There is absolutely no way that NJ will go for Bush unless there is an electoral tsunami. That is not the case at the moment.
40 posted on 02/22/2004 6:50:05 PM PST by wylenetheconservative (Max Cleland and Larry Flynt are the same person)
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To: raloxk
Good example would be the Condo Communists down in Florida that move from NYC to Boca Raton....and bring Bobby Wexler and Peter Deutsch with them.
41 posted on 02/22/2004 6:50:30 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("You know it don't come easy, the road of the gypsy" - Iron Eagle)
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To: raloxk
Beasley was not one of the GOP candidate at that time...

Now he is, because he was the only one winning .....then too
42 posted on 02/22/2004 6:59:04 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: wylenetheconservative
I used Dales' table above to allocate the states.

There have been several posts that question his picks, but they are a good starting point for discussion.

43 posted on 02/22/2004 7:00:46 PM PST by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: Dales
One factor you haven't mentioned in your punditry: ticket strength.

New Hampshire, for example, will probably have the strongest GOP ticket in the nation, with Judd Gregg and Craig Benson joining Bush-Cheney at the top. Democrats have state Senator Burt Cohen for senate and no gubernatorial hopeful so far.

How important is ticket strength? That's . . . debatable.

Any opinions?

Other battleground states with stronger GOP tickets than Democrat: Ohio (Sen. Voinovich vs. Fingerhut), possibly Florida with Martinez/Cuban vote implications, Iowa (Sen. Grassley vs. Small), MISSOURI (Sen. Bond vs. Farmer, Blunt vs. Gov. Holden), Arizona (McCain), Georgia (senate nominee).

Battlegrounds with stronger Democrat tickets: Oregon (Sen. Wyden), Wisconsin (Sen. Feingold), Cali (Sen. Boxer vs. Jones - debatable), Nevada (Sen. Reid), Arkansas (Sen. Lincoln), Indiana (Sen. Bayh vs. Scott).

The other battleground states with neutral-ish tickets: NC, VA, NJ, WV, ME, MI, PA, MN, TN

44 posted on 02/22/2004 7:11:34 PM PST by JohnnyZ (People don't just bump into each other and have sex. This isn't Cinemax! -- Jerry)
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To: SC Swamp Fox
If Dales picked NJ for Bush, he was on drugs at the time.
45 posted on 02/22/2004 7:11:53 PM PST by Torie
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To: JohnnyZ
Coattails are largely history, and reverse coattails are well, whatever. The thought that local candidates will drive turnout in a way that will skew the presidential race is also problematical. I won't say it can't happen, but it is rare. I notice that I am still on your shit list. LOL.
46 posted on 02/22/2004 7:14:12 PM PST by Torie
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To: Dales
Great Work.

thinking cautiously.

Bush takes all the "safe, strong and lean" states.
Any way you look at it he needs Florida plus 6 EVs to win outright.
So if he takes Florida and either W.Va or Nevada @ 5 each.(reasonable).

Bush and Kerry tied at 269.
That sends it into the Republican house.
47 posted on 02/22/2004 7:14:46 PM PST by edwin hubble
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To: Torie
I notice that I am still on your shit list. LOL.

I do try not to hold being a moderate against you but sometimes you go over the line in your pronouncements regarding Christian conservatives, attacking them for being, well, Christian conservatives, instead of playing the happy RINO. Cheers.

48 posted on 02/22/2004 7:21:39 PM PST by JohnnyZ (People don't just bump into each other and have sex. This isn't Cinemax! -- Jerry)
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Electoral Vote Calculator

@

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ev/
49 posted on 02/22/2004 7:23:49 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: Torie
Iowa will be in the Bush column by election day. Iowans just LOVE incumbents.
50 posted on 02/22/2004 7:25:32 PM PST by Irene Adler
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