Kerry edging out Bush (PA: Kerry 47% - W 46%)

TRIBUNE-REVIEW ^ | Wednesday, February 25, 2004 | Debra Erdley

[KQQL]

Pennsylvanians worried about their wallets are giving President Bush cause to worry about their votes. A statewide Keystone Poll released today showed Pennsylvanians increasingly nervous about the economy are boosting the hopes of Democratic presidential front-runner John Kerry.

If the election were held tomorrow, 47 percent said they'd vote for Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, and 46 percent for Bush. The remaining 8 percent said they were undecided. The numbers total 101 percent because of rounding.

[KQQL]

good news for W in PA

[KQQL]

#@

[KQQL]

PA
Spector 50% - Hoeffel 31%
Quinnipiac University Poll
MOE+/-2.7% (Reg Voters) 02/10-16/04
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10183.xml
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SPECTOR IS LUCKY....RICKY stood by him

[My2Cents]

Pennsylvanians worried about their wallets are giving President Bush cause to worry about their votes.

And how will voting for Kerry improve things for them?

[My2Cents]

What with the spotlight being on the Dems for about six weeks now, the incessant carping by the press, the "AWOL" issue, it's amazing Bush is this close to Kerry.

[america-rules]

This is a disaster for Kerry !

He must win PA and FL or he loses !

[ETERNAL WARMING]

"There isn't any question (the economy) remains the most important question in the presidential election, and it's going to have a profound effect on the election," Madonna said.

Yep. It's people's personal economies George. They don't care about International economies or even the National Economy that doesn't seem to put a dime in their pockets. '

Get with the program and stop the insanity.

[KQQL]

PORK ....

[KQQL]

he has to win PA + NH + WV or

PA+MO
PA+OH

not FL.

KERRY WILL NOT WIN FL....

[Betaille]

"He must win PA and FL or he loses !"

Absolutely my freind... that is why CNN is not doing state by state polls thus far even though at this point in the 1996 race there were battleground state polls being reported by them every single day on inside politics and other CNN shows showing Clinton trouncing Dole. If he is this close in PA(a solid blue northern state), imagine what florida(southern state where right wing radio is king and where i became a conservative) must look like.

[KQQL]

No Heinz bounce for Kerry in PA

[Betaille]

he has to win PA + NH + WV or PA+MO PA+OH

Yeah on second thought you are right. However, PA, MO, and OH are probably some of the most sympathetic states for a Defense of Marriage Amendment.

[KC_Conspirator]

I actually think this is good news for Bush. Gore won this state easily in 2000 and I thought that Bush had a chance here in 2004, even with Rendell there.

[KQQL]

PA is not a SOLID blue state...

It has a Republican state house/senate 2 republican Senators .
PA is a 2 state within one state....---

PA is toss up state...to a very slightly RAT lean.


.Kerry has to win in PA , not W...

If W loses OH then, W has to win PA or MN +NM+(IA or OR)

[Betaille]

"KERRY WILL NOT WIN FL...."

Thank g-d you are right. When I moved to northern florida 4 years ago it was a very split and almost apathetic place politically. But when i moved out just a few months ago it was the most gung-ho, patriotic, and conservative place I had ever seen. What the liberal media doesn't realize is that there are alot of underlying cultural and religious factors in Florida and just because Gore almost tied there doesnt mean it is less conservative than Nevada or New Hampshire.

[KQQL]

2000 /PA

Gore 2,465,412 51% 23
Bush 2,264,309 47% 0
Nader 102,453 2% 0
Buchanan 16,879 0% 0


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/PA/frameset.exclude.html

[KQQL]

FL : In 2000 Jebby had been Gov for approx 2 years, by 04 it will be 6 years.

also, LOSERMAN was big factor

[Betaille]

"KERRY WILL NOT WIN FL...."

I'm just curious to hear why you are so sure FL will be different in 04 than in 00. I happen to agree with you because there has been a big religious and patriotic revival in northern and western florida that the elitist media can't comprehend. If you have other reasons to be so confident though, I'd like to hear them, I'm in need of some positive news. By the way I am one of those Floridians who voted for Gore in '00 and since then have rediscovered both religion and gung-ho patriotism.

[LdSentinal]

If Bush is ruuning even with Kerry in Pennsylvania, Bush is leading Kerry in Ohio.

Camejo and Nader need to be on the ballot.

[ambrose]

Bush down by only 1 in a poll of "adults" in a state that Gore won by 5? Wow...

[KQQL]

The Keystone Poll was conducted Feb. 19-22 and surveyed 532 of the state's adults,
-----

including 398 people who identified themselves as registered voters.

[KQQL]

Keystone poll:

Kerry 47%- W 46%

Vs

Sen. John Kerry has left the Democratic presidential pack in the dust in Pennsylvania and, in a head-to-head face-off, now leads President George W. Bush 50 – 45 percent among all voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

[KC_Conspirator]

Kerry has an outside chance of winning in MO, but overall, this is still Bush country. If it were Edwards, Gephardt, or Lieberman, it might be different and none of those guys as VP would win the state.

[Betaille]

"If it were Edwards, Gephardt, or Lieberman, it might be different and none of those guys as VP would win the state."

But Gephardt is from MO

[KC_Conspirator]

But as a VP he might as well be from GA. He's never run statewide (his current district is very safe dem) and would never beat the gay marraige rap in MO.

[Betaille]

Good point, I dont think any democrat will be able to beat the gay marriage rap in MO... Bush better let the guns start blazin though. If only bush had announced his support for a constitutional amendment in the state of the union.

[My Favorite Headache]

Bush just needs to hold onto the states he won last time period and he wins.Who cares what blue states Kerry has. A nice New Mexico and Penn pick up would be sweet for W. But I can already hear CNN calling it for Kerry and it is only Feb.

[Betaille]

"Who cares what blue states Kerry has."

You can not assume that Bush will win every "red" state. That leaves you no margin for error. It's just like Democrats who say "we don't need the south"... the problem is that it leaves them no margin for error(that little red speck called new hampshire just killed them didnt it?). Besides, with a strong conservative message, Bush should be able to win states like PA, Wisconsin, Minnesota, maybe even Michigan. It would make a big statement to the democrats... that they have completely lost middle america.

[Tamzee]

The economy is growing faster than any other in 20 years... I'd say that "George" is with the program just beautifully and folks complaining about the economy are driven by an agenda.

[ambrose]

Florida was close, in part, because of Lieberman.

[KQQL]

Bush is leading Kerry in Ohio...

---

..I havn't seen a OH poll in a while.

[Betaille]

"..I havn't seen a OH poll in a while."

That means good news for bush. As I said earlier, CNN was reporting battleground state polls daily at this time in 1996. The fact that they are covering polls up is a good sign for Bush.

[KQQL]

W might not carry NH in 04.

---

also.. here are the states where this election will be won or lost

---

PA
MN
WI
NM
IA


NV
NH
WV
OH
MO

[KQQL]

FL was also close becasue of W's DUI ...suprise !

OLD people don't like suprises.....

[LdSentinal]

. ..I havn't seen a OH poll in a while.

If Bush is even with Kerry in Pennsylvania, imagine his matchup numbers in a state (Ohio) a bunch more Republican than Pennsylvania.

[KQQL]

I don't remember 1996 polls....that well.....didn't care for CNN

[KQQL]

yep...

[KQQL]

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, who ended his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination earlier this week, raised more campaign money in January than Senator John Kerry, who leads President George W. Bush in polls, government reports showed.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a2AdN0z08G0s&refer=top_world_news

-----

LOL

[Future Useless Eater]

And now that Dean has given up, Kucinich is BREAKING OUT!

In Hawaii, with 99% of the precincts reported, Edwards was in a DISTANT THIRD PLACE, just barely ahead of Howard Dean!

Kerry      46%
Kucinich   30%
Edwards    13%
Dean 	    9%

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Getting out the alienated vote***"You try to find whatever appeals to (young voters) -- like music -- and use that to go after them," said Dan Glickman, director of Harvard University's Institute of Politics. Mainstream Democrats are taking notice. Earlier this month, the buzz over Punkvoter got Burkett invited to a ritzy New York fund-raiser -- he dressed in a powder-blue leisure suit, white shoes and spiked hair -- where he hobnobbed with Democratic fund-raiser George Soros and filmmaker Michael Moore. "I think people were kind of scared to talk to me at first," he said.

But they noticed that Punkvoter.com is getting 8 million hits a month, a following built largely through a below-the-mainstream-radar network and Burkett's curt motto: "We're trying to anger as many people as possible. That's what takes away apathy."

Music for America is hoping to convince young people who were marching in anti-war demonstrations a year ago that "activism by itself won't get anything done," said Josh Koenig, 24, one of the organization's leaders.

"There were hundreds of thousands of people in the streets, and they (the Bush administration) didn't listen," Koenig said. "You have to go through presidential politics to get anything done." ***

[FRgal4u]

If PA, OH, FL is in W's column, this race is over. One PA can withstood a lost in OH. But if PA goes W, I doubt OH will go Ketchup 57.

[reformedliberal]

Is this why Rendell is showing up on FNC in support of Kerry?
My impressions (I have not been following PA) are that Rendell is not that popular. Is that correct?

[reformedliberal]

I agree, but the media manages to induce fear hourly. People are working, their friends and families are working, they have more disposable income,small businesses are doing well, but the perception is of insecurity.

The Dems are trying to sell Kerry on the perception.

[SamAdams76]

This is good news for Bush despite how the Democrats want to spin it. This is a state that Bush lost by several points in 2000. The fact that he is statistically tied with Kerry before his campaign has even started bodes well for him at this point. Pennsylvania is Bush's to lose.

[Ramcat]

"My impressions (I have not been following PA) are that Rendell is not that popular. Is that correct?"

Correct!
He raised taxes and promised a property tax reduction that he's now tying to gambling becoming legal. Not too popular.

For W to be close in PA is great news. In SW PA where I live I saw a sign the other day for a local election that said "Vote Republican, It's Legal"

I wanted to take a picture but by the time I got back somebody tore it down.

[Petronski]

The Keystone Poll was conducted Feb. 19-22 and surveyed 532 of the state's adults, including 398 people who identified themselves as registered voters. The poll was sponsored by the Tribune-Review and several other news organizations statewide.

In other words, it contains no predictive value whatsoever.

[Coop]

I actually think this is good news for Bush.

Very good news, indeed.

[JohnnyZ]

I'm just curious to hear why you are so sure FL will be different in 04 than in 00.

The Jeb factor, for one. In 2000 they'd just passed One Florida, and that probably helped drive the unusually high black turnout. But now people have had time to see that, hey, it wasn't so bad, and realized they didn't have to be scared of life under the Bushes.