SurveyUSA Illinois Senate Race Primary Polls (Obama, Ryan lead)

SurveyUSA ^ | Feb. 25, 2004 | SurveyUSA

[GiveEmDubya]

U.S. Senate, IL Dem Primary 2/25/2004

Obama 32%

Hull 22%

Hynes 17%

Pappas 12%

Chico 7%

Other 7%

Undecided 2%

Data Collected 2/24/04

Geography State of Illinois

Sample Population 372 Certain Voters

Margin of Error 5.2%

Client WBBM-TV Chicago

--------------

U.S. Senate, IL GOP Primary 2/25/2004

Ryan 46%

Oberweis 14%

McKenna 13%

Rauschenberger 10%

Borling 3%

Other 9%

Undecided 5%

Data Collected 2/22/04 - 2/24/04

Geography State of Illinois

Sample Population 356 Certain Voters

Margin of Error 5.3%

Client WBBM-TV Chicago

[GiveEmDubya]

Open to debate, comments, etc.

[ambrose]

I believe the Rat Primary was turned upside down over some revelations re Hall...

[GiveEmDubya]

I got the impression here that Obama is beatable.

Could anyone here verify that?

[Kuksool]

Excellent. My intention to vote for Obama in the primary won't be a wasted vote after all.

[GiveEmDubya]

Ping--thought you might wanna take a look at this.

[GiveEmDubya]

I have to ask...is Obama beatable (in November)?

Wouldn't it be something if we had a shot at holding this seat after all.

[Kuksool]

Obama is a Jesse Jackson type liberal. He would be killed in Downstate IL.

[ambrose]

Carol Mostly-Fraud managed to win...

[ambrose]

My limited understanding is that Hull is a gazillionaire. The Rats establishment wants him as the nominee because he'll be able to self-fund his campaign.

[ambrose]

Abuse accusation against Hull takes center stage in debate

February 24, 2004 ? U.S. Senate candidate Blair Hull, despite pressure from his opponents during a Democratic debate, isn't disclosing the details of a 1998 incident that led his ex-wife to obtain an order of protection against him.

Hull says it's not his decision to make alone. His ex-wife, Brenda Sexton, is talking to her lawyers and deciding how providing more information would affect her and her family.

But Hull said the incident, in which he was accused of hitting Sexton on the shin, was resolved amicably and should not affect his Senate campaign.

"Brenda supports my candidacy. We remain good friends and she thinks I will be a good U.S. senator," he said Monday.

Some of his opponents don't see it that way.

[snip]
http://abclocal.go.com/wls/news/022404_ap_ns_hull.html

[Kuksool]

She won largely due to CLinton coattails and a weak GOP candidate. Remember, she lost her re-election bid in 1998 despite heavy turnout in Chicago.

[JohnnyZ]

I believe the Rat Primary was turned upside down over some revelations re Hall...

I wonder . . . how much play have the Hull revelations gotten in the media and filtered out into the population?

If I remember correctly, this is a big move up for Obama and I wouldn't think he'd be the one to pick up Hull supporters. Maybe he's gone on TV?

[ambrose]

ping.

[ambrose]

she lost her re-election bid in 1998 despite heavy turnout in Chicago.

There's always a heavy turnout in Chicago, especially in the precints near graveyards.

[LandofLincoln]

This Rat primary is wide open. Now, that Hull has had the wife beating thing aired

[GiveEmDubya]

A dirty primary it is then...

[JasonC]

They called me, but I didn't answer them...

[mystery-ak]

But we in central and southern Il got her out.

[Kuksool]

Currently Obama is polling at 32% Blacks make up a third of the IL RAT primary. Obama is spending most of his time on increasing black turnout. With Kerry locking up the Presidential primary, voter turnout will be pathetically low.

[LandofLincoln]

Aren't all the candidates buying their offices these days?

[ambrose]

Wouldn't Obama have a better shot in the general than an accused wife beater?

[Clintonfatigued]

The fields are starting to form and take shape now. If this poll is accurate, Republicans have a pretty good chance to hold this seat. Every little bit helps.

[GiveEmDubya]

If this poll is accurate, Republicans have a pretty good chance to hold this seat.

I hope that is true. I certainly don't think the Dem primary getting blown wide open will hurt.

[Clintonfatigued]

Is it likely that voters in Illinois would vote for someone with a name like Barak Obama? Remember in 1986, when Lyndon LaRouche supporters won primaries for Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State against opponents with long, ethnic names?

[Kuksool]

The IL sheeple may think twice about voting for someone with an Arabic sounding name.

[GiveEmDubya]

I think an Ryan/Obama race would be fun. We might actually have a shot at holding on to the seat after writing it off for the last year.

[JohnnyZ]

after writing it off for the last year.

Ahem. Speak for thyself, knave! ;)

The general election is still pretty darn hard to predict at this point, except that Jack Ryan seems to have the primary well in hand. The Oberweis bump is fading, and Rauschenberger's gaining slowly but surely.

I've not at all displeased at Hull's problems, though, and I'm cautiously optimistic about our chances against Obama, should it come to that.

[GiveEmDubya]

For the record, I wasn't writing this one off; in fact, I wasn't saying a word. Just about all the pundits and most of the people here probably did.

Cautious optimism seems to be the way to look at it right now.

[JohnnyZ]

Cautious optimism seems to be the way to look at it right now.

You're right, making outright predictions at this point would be silly.

I GUARANTEE REPUBLICANS WILL PICK UP FOUR SENATE SEATS IN 2004!!!!

[BroncosFan]

The former Mr. Seven of Nine (c'mon, you know you watched it!) seems to stand a fair chance now. I can't see downstate Ill. Dems voting in a big way for a Mr. Barak Obama. Blair Hull, unwounded, would have been a significant favorite. He's in the Dayton-Corzine-Edwards-Cantwell self-financing genera-lib mode . . . some kind of math geek billionaire. If Obama wins the primary, this seat goes from likely Dem pickup to retainable.

[JohnnyZ]

If Obama wins the primary, this seat goes from likely Dem pickup to retainable.

Fear is the mind-killer.

[Modernman]

The former Mr. Seven of Nine

Seriously?

[justshutupandtakeit]

Watch the "conservatives" show up to disembowel Ryan proving they learned nothing from the last GOP primary in Illinois.

"Ooooh, Ryan worked at Goldman, Sachs and is a Satan worshipper." or some such crap.

[justshutupandtakeit]

I live a block away from one and can verify the walking dead regularly show up at the polls. No, wait those are just the ordinary democRATS.

[AmishDude]

Ryan should run against Obama on the slogan:

It's a typo!

[BroncosFan]

Yup. And I believe he left her (not sure, though). He's definately one of those too perfect guys. Super young partner at Goldman trades that gig in to go teach the geat urban unwashed in an inner city public school (not like he was planning a political career later on with that move . . . nahhh).

[BlackElk]

Imagine Jack Ryan asking State Senator Barak Obama (D-Chicago Machine Radical Wing) what his fellow Harvard Law alumnus Obama has personally done to see to actual education of black kids on the South Side of Chicago, why Obama and the Machine want and NEED to keep the South Side black kids ignorant and on the Demonrat plantation, why gay rights legislation is sooooo much more important to Barack Obama in his capacity as a full service supermarket for special interests like the pathetic teachers' unions and the exotically lifestyled, why Obama thinks the ring counties around Chicago and Cook should pay taxes until they bleed through every orifice to fund good jobs at good wages for Machine plutocrats, and why the abortion toll among blacks seems like such a good thing to Barack Obama. Obama is Ghanian by the ancestry of his father who emigrated here, as I understand it.

Jack may even carry a Chicago cemetery or two.

Ryan can actually tie Obama down in the ghetto while people in less than affluent southern and central and northwest Illinois ask themselves if they can really see themselves being represented in the US Senate by Barack Obama, Ivy League radical lunatic fringe candidate of the no longer socially conservative but ever financially ravenous Chicago Machine. Richie Daley endorsing gay marriage won't help Obama much either.

God is being good to Illinois and America so long as 34-year old Hynes a statewide officeholder and competent candidate is deeply buried under the Demonrat slag heap for lack of adequate funding.

Blair Hull is and always was easy road kill. Obama even more so. Jack Ryan leads 3 to 1 over the plushly self-financed but untrustworthy Oberweis. Go, Jack!

We are going to win this thing and confound skeptical pundits inside the beltway so long as Dubya runs competently at the top and maximizes GOP turnout here. Once we do, then we can go after state party control and elect a genuinely Republican administration in two years, but first things first.

[BlackElk]

It will be miraculous if Obama can widen his lead and win. Ten points is still very tenuous as a lead in the Demonrat primary with nearly three weeks to go. Anybody but Hynes will bear the marks of our tank treads in November and Hynes might also but, don't count him out easily. Hynes has far better radio ads than Hull on jobs and bashes Bush as though he means it but not embarrassingly so. Obama has no radio ads that I have heard on the Rockford area stations. Obama has, at least in the Rockford ghetto, some upside potential in the primary out here in northwest Illinois.

[GiveEmDubya]

So in other words, this was a good poll. :)

Obama can wow the Democrat base but will have a difficult time winning over everyone else. I don't really know much of Illinois politics, but I'll bet that in a general election, Obama would get crucified everywhere outside Cook County.

I see you're from Illinois, so get out there and help hold this seat!

[JohnnyZ]

It will be miraculous if Obama can widen his lead and win. Ten points is still very tenuous as a lead in the Demonrat primary with nearly three weeks to go.

And I don't believe it's really a ten-point lead, either. One day of polling directly post-debate doesn't mean solid, consistent support.

Still, with the field fractured as it is and Obama only getting 59% of blacks so far, I can certainly see him winning with 30%.

[TedsGarage]

Obama has an odd name, but is there a worse name in Illinois politics now than Ryan? That's why JACK is in huge letters on the yard signs, ryan in tiny type. JIM did the same thing.

[Clintonfatigued]

That's a good point. But Obama is only one letter away from Osama.

[nygoose]

Well said.

[BlackElk]

But JIM could have indicted Lyin George and did not. JIM also handed the Rev. Mr. Jesse Shakedown on a discretionary basis $300,000 of federal lawsuit proceeds to train women for roles in the workplace. We know that the administrative overhead of the Rev. Mr. Shakedown would have consumed about $280,000 and the rest would have gone to some lovely young thing to train her to be the mother of his next love child.

[teletech]

Does anyone have the vote totals for Ryan and Obama. My wife was saying that Ryans only got 129,000+ votes where Obama got 800,000+ votes??? If this is so, what does this say about Ryan's chances of beating Obama in Nov.?

[GiveEmDubya]

From what I have been able to deduce, Republican turnout was very low. Democrat turnout was comparatively very high.

I don't necessarily think that Obama is headed for a cakewalk, I just think the GOP primary didn't generate enough excitement. Someone on FR said last night that when they voted, they were the 6th Republican to vote at that precinct all day. November will have all of the big races on the ticket and therefore there should be a pretty balanced turnout from both parties and don't forget independents can weigh in also.

[teletech]

From what I have been able to deduce, Republican turnout was very low. Democrat turnout was comparatively very high.

I don't necessarily think that Obama is headed for a cakewalk, I just think the GOP primary didn't generate enough excitement. Someone on FR said last night that when they voted, they were the 6th Republican to vote at that precinct all day. November will have all of the big races on the ticket and therefore there should be a pretty balanced turnout from both parties and don't forget independents can weigh in also.

I guess it will all depend on voter turnout. Chicago usually manufactures enough votes to elect ANY Democrat candidate so it should be interesting to see what happens this time round.