U.S. SENATE RACES - 2004

National Republican Senatorial Committee ^ | Updated regularly on the web | National Republican Senatorial Committee

[DefCon]

SENATE RACES 2004

DEMOCRATS			REPUBLICANS
Bayh, Evan	IN		Bennett, Robert	UT
Boxer, Barbara	CA		Bond, Christopher	MO
Breaux, John *	LA		Brownback, Sam	KS
Daschle, Thomas	SD		Bunning, Jim	KY
Dodd, Christopher	CT		Campbell, Ben Nighthorse	CO
Dorgan, Byron	ND		Crapo, Mike	ID
Edwards, John *	NC		Fitzgerald, Peter *	IL
Feingold, Russell	WI		Grassley, Chuck	IA
Graham, Bob *	FL		Gregg, Judd	NH
Hollings, Ernest *	SC		McCain, John	AZ
Inouye, Daniel	HI		Murkowski, Lisa	AK
Leahy, Patrick	VT		Nickles, Don *	OK
Lincoln, Blanche	AR		Shelby, Richard	AL
Mikulski, Barbara	MD		Specter, Arlen	PA
Miller, Zell *	GA		Voinovich, George	OH
Murray, Patty	WA
Reid, Harry	NV
Schumer, Charles	NY
Wyden, Ron	OR
* designates open seats

[DefCon]

Thirty Four U.S. Senate Seats To Watch In November.

[Koblenz]

Potential Republican Pickups:

NC, SC, GA, FL, SD

Potential Democratic Pickups:

AK, OK, IL

IL is pretty much a foregone conclusion. Oklahoma may still be salvageable, but I'm amazed Republicans aren't doing better there. And Alaska: Murkowski was so dumb to pick his daughter.

[commish]

I pretty much agree with your assessment, but I think LA can be added to the possible pickup list.

I was sure Boxer would be vulnerable, but the Repubs in Calif can;t even focus on thier own Primary, much less start building a concensus against Boxer.

[jpsb]

The GOP can forget the south, "free trade" (which ain't free), illegal imigration.

[FreeAtlanta]

Ga. should definately be a Republican pick up. I am pulling for Herman Cain (here is his website)

[Republic Rocker]

The most important battle is for dashole's seat.......!

[FreeAtlanta]

Besides seeing Boxer knocked out, I would love to see little Tommy Daschole get the boot.

Come South Dakota, do what is right for America! Do we have a good candidate (any candidate) running against him?

[jpsb]

Either one of those two would be sweet. I here tommy is in trouble, hope so.

[republicanwizard]

Not quite. We have good chances in NC, SC, GA, FL, LA, WA, CA, and SD. I am still waiting to see what happens in Nevada.

On the other hand, I believe that Kerry, given his strong opposition to drilling in Alaska, will assure a Murkowski victory. Of course our nominee started behind in Texas in 2002, and I don't see why we shouldn't win in Oklahoma. In Pennsylvania, Specter should win the primary and easily win the general. The remaining state, Illinois, has gotten interesting. The Democratic frontrunner, Blair Hull, has fallen on his face. It seems that Barack Obama, not Hynes or Hull, will be the RAT to oppose Jack Ryan. I am becoming optimistic about our chances in that state.

[commish]

John Thune, who had the 2002 SD Senate seat STOLEN from him is running against Daschle. They are dead even in the polls, and everything points to it being a 1-2% race all the way to November.

The Great thing is Daschle has the Fed Marraige Amendment poised like a GUillotine over his neck. He has to support it to win reelection, but as Senate Minority Leader he must lead the charge to defeat it.

This was brilliant Strategery by Bush again -- Not only for the General Election - But this will require Daschle to be in Washington fighting this battle, while Thune campaigns unopposed throughout SD.

If this is as close as it looks, Watch for Bush and Cheney (mostly Cheney since SD is safe for Bush) to spend a lot of face time with John Thune in SD.

[bobo1]

I live in Illinois, but will probably move within the next few years. The land of Marxism and political corruption. No doubt the Demo's will be in charge. We already have Dirtbag Dubin as a senator. We can probably offer another sleezeball to compliment him.

Blessings, Bobo

[ggekko]

"It seems that Barack Obama, not Hynes or Hull, will be the RAT to oppose Jack Ryan...."

I would rate and Obama-Ryan race as a tossup. In a state like Illinois which has a significant voter registration edge for the Democrats Republicans need help to win. This appears to be happening with Democrats selecting Obama who is a rhetorical lightning rod and potentially a very vulnerable candidate.

[deport]

Of course our nominee started behind in Texas in 2002,

---

What do you base that on? Polling data or something else?

[BlackRazor]

I believe that Kerry, given his strong opposition to drilling in Alaska, will assure a Murkowski victory

Yeah, but that was the old John Kerry. Didn't the new and improved version recently tell the Teamsters he'd be willing to drill like crazy?

[genghis]

A few more states may be in play.
1-hi- I think there is a shot that in-no-way retires
(awesome Republican governor)
2-wi- I would fire tommy thompson and make him run for the senate.
3-n.y.- rudy could take that drat out in a heart beat.
4- ark- we need a candidate
5-md- awesome african-american lt gov might beat that hag.
6- nev- we need a candidate.
I was really optimistic about picking up 8 or so seats at the beginning of the year, but i think 3 or so is the best we will be able to do.

[firewalk]

bttt

[raloxk]

So you think Inez Tannebaum will win SC?

I have no clue who is even running in GA on the DEM side!
You are forgetting that the South is not just about textiles, globalism has brought thousands of high paying jobs to the south. yes, jobs have been lost. Mostly $6 and hour ones that have been replaced by $15 and hour ones.

[raloxk]

Illinois doesnt have party preference requirments when registering to vote.

I think Ryan would beat Obama. I think that millionare elitist Hull will win though. Part of Jon Corzine's Senate recruitment strategy. Rich liberals who want socialist health care for you, but not for them

[JohnnyZ]

Spelling Reference
Tenenbaum
Humphreys
Michels
Feingold
Beasley
Rauschenberger
Mongiardo
Penelas
Deutsch
Isakson
Specter
Hoeffel

Geez, I hope I got that right ;)

States in Play
Open: LA, IL, FL, GA, SC, NC, OK
Republican: Specter, Murkowski, Bunning, Bond
Democrats: Daschle, Murray, Boxer, Feingold, Reid, Lincoln

I think we'll sweep the FL-GA-SC-NC open seats, lose one of OK-AK-IL, but take either LA or defeat one of the incumbent Democrats. +4 pickup

[JohnnyZ]

Some dates to look for, courtesy of George Allen and the NRSC:

Tuesday of next week kicks off the political season in many parts of the country. We'll find out whom Republicans in California and Maryland will select to be our standard bearers in the fall's U.S. Senate races. Below are some of the important states and dates that we will be keeping our eyes on through June:

March
March 2, 2004 California
March 2, 2004 Maryland
March 16, 2004 Illinois

April
April 27, 2004 Pennsylvania

May
May 18, 2004 Arkansas

June
June 1, 2004 South Dakota (Special election for vacant House seat)
June 8, 2004 South Carolina
June 22, 2004 South Carolina run-off (only if no candidate gets over 50% in the primary on June 8th)

[DefCon]

Regarding Herman Cain.
Who is his opposition?

[zbigreddogz]

Yah, the Gay Marrage thing is a noose for Dashle.

However, don't look for Bush to be traveling to SD anytime soon. He will, appropriately, be too focused on winning reelection himself, and him winning SD isn't a matter of if, but of how much. Thune is on his own as far as that goes. Wouldn't count out some heavy hitters campaigning for him, but GWB will be too busy.


But, the fact that GWB is gonna win that state will help him. Basically, GWB is gonna win the state by 8-15%, and so Dashole will need to find 8-15% of the people to vote for a split ticket, which won't be easy. Excuse any sacrelige, but it's hard to find someone to vote for both God and the Devil at the same time.

[ggekko]

I would rather have a candidate who is not named Ryan but he appears to be the front runner in Illinois and I think he can go all the way because he has some crossover appeal.

Things certainly look a lot better for the Republicans holding this seat then they did 6 months ago.

[raloxk]

thats good

[raloxk]

Youre moving from IL to NJ???

I pity you

[painter]

States in Play Open: LA, IL, FL, GA, SC, NC, OK Republican: Specter, Murkowski, Bunning, Bond

Bond? He is very popular in Missouri.It would take massive vote fraud to beat him.

In 2002Jim Talent beat the widder Carnahan in a fairly close election.St.Louis couldn't deliever the vote for her.The voting places where watched too close that time.Matt Blunt being Sec of State instituded rules making it Very hard to vote more than once.

[JohnnyZ]

Bond? He is very popular in Missouri.

He's certainly favored to win, but so are Lincoln, Feingold, Murray, Boxer, Reid, and Bunning. Bond has a decent challenger in Nancy Farmer, and all his races are close.

[Kuksool]

Our chances of picking up four Senate seats are as good as the Chicago Cubs chances of winning 100 games and going to to the World Series this year. With the signing of Greg Maddux, the Cubs have improved an already top notch pitching staff. However, the Cubs have a habit of choking at the end. Ditto with GOP candidates.

[dfergu7477]

"I think we'll sweep the FL-GA-SC-NC open seats, lose one of OK-AK-IL, but take either LA or defeat one of the incumbent Democrats. +4 pickup"

You may be too pessimistic. I think we'll complete the southern sweep with LA, and Daschle, Murray, Boxer, and Feingold are vulnerable. Who knows, the people in NV may be so disgusted as to dump Reid, too. He barely won last time.

With Bush running strong (and I believe he will by Fall), and 'Fn Kerry getting killed by his liberal record, we may do LOTS better than we dare hope. Also, this gay marriage issue may bring the boot to a lot of RATS, via an electorate that will have had it with "anything goes."

I say, we get darn close to 60, or do get there. It's agony, but we'll just have to wait and see.

[livius]

We've GOT to get a Republican here in Florida.

[Clintonfatigued]

I used to think that Blair Hull would win this race. But he recently got tripped up by a past domestic violence incident with his ex-wife. Barak Obama has strong support in Chicago's black neighborhoods and could win the multi-candidate primary. If he does, I think the Republican nominee (probably Jack Ryan) would start out with the edge.

[raloxk]

"But he recently got tripped up by a past domestic violence incident with his ex-wife"

Didnt know that. That's sweet.

hmmm....will it matter though????

[Clintonfatigued]

In virtually every Senate election cycle, there is at least one race that surprises the experts. I fully expect that this will happen this year. Some possible Senators who could get caught off guard are Jim Bunning (R-KY), Christopher Bond (R-MO), Harry Reid (D-NV), and Barbara Boxer (D-CA).

[Homer_J_Simpson]

I was sure Boxer would be vulnerable, but the Repubs in Calif can;t even focus on thier own Primary, much less start building a concensus against Boxer.

I think either Bill Jones or Howard Kaloogian can knock off Boxer, and with Arnolds's help W will take California. Or at least come close enough to force the rats to spend all their money preventing it. Of course, I'm an eternal optimist.

[Clintonfatigued]

I have some info on that race. In the year of 2003, Tom Daschle spent $3,248,373 on his campaign, a full year before the vote. In the meantime, opponent John Thune spent nothing and even stayed out of the public eye. A Mason-Dixon poll on Feb. 7 showed a Daschle lead of 50% to 44%, while a Rasmussen Reports poll on Feb. 11 showed Daschle ahead by only 48% to 45%. In other words, in spite of holding statewide office for 22 years and having near-universal name I.D., Daschle is not only unable to establish a decisive lead, but can't even poll a majority of the vote. Furthermore, Daschle has been one of Bush's harshest, most high-profile critics, yet needs Bush voters to cross over and vote for him. I know what this leads me to expect in this race.

[JohnnyZ]

Some possible Senators who could get caught off guard are Jim Bunning (R-KY), Christopher Bond (R-MO), Harry Reid (D-NV), and Barbara Boxer (D-CA).

But all of them are on guard and taking their races seriesly.

[chicagolady]

Thats correct Ryan from Illinois has not got a chance!
Glad to see that sometimes you are honest and truthfull!

[republicanwizard]

Polling data. Between the primary and the runoff, Kirk led Cornyn. Then the campaign and nature of the state kicked in, and Cornyn pulled ahead and stayed ahead.

[deport]

Okay...... Yes I guess there were some polls showing Kirk winning but I never even considered them legit in that Kirk was in a high profile primary race, part of the hyped 'Dream Team' and Cronyn was unopposed and got very little if any media coverage. I think I remember one poll from the DMN that had Kirk winning by a slight number with some 25% undecided...

[Defender2]

The demoCommiecRATs strings are pulled by these people:


http://www.dsausa.org/

and are governed by these people:

http://www.geoffmetcalf.com/wndarchive/19519.html

demoCommiecRATs = one truly sorry, pathetic, sick, sad, bad
Freak Show!!!!

[billbears]

You are forgetting that the South is not just about textiles, globalism has brought thousands of high paying jobs to the south. yes, jobs have been lost. Mostly $6 and hour ones that have been replaced by $15 and hour ones.

Here in NC it still is. And these aren't $6 an hour jobs either. Many are over $15 an hour. Tell that to the good folks of Kannapolis that just lost over 6,000 jobs in one area. Or the 3,000 jobs lost in Winston-Salem from tobacco when the Republican controlled Congress passed the tobacco buyout bill that included a 'no-tax' tax increase on the manufacturing side. NC unfortunately is a tossup state in more ways than one. And the Republicans have no one to blame but theirselves.

And as for your 'high paying jobs' from globalism you can come to Raleigh NC and tell us all about those as well. Price of land has absolutely skyrocketed from the technology sector in RTP and the jobs available to native North Carolinians is dwindling. Of course you could always believe our idiot governor (D) and our worthless Senator (R), the Tweedledum and TweedleDee of biotechnology, that somehow believes all these ex-textile and ex-tobacco workers are going to morph overnight into biotechnicians at the local community college

[Kuksool]

A Zogby poll, a few days before the election, showed Cronyn leading Kirk, 49-48. Dick Morris was gloating about how blacks and hispanics are rising up to elect RATS in TX. How wrong he was.

[hosepipe]

God help me but:
Strange as it seems, the movie passion might have political ramifications... Yes! political..
Kinda early to say.. but I perceive something very deep in its impact on many levels...
Well I did say God help me..

[deport]

I don't know if Zog screwed up with that poll or that was his attempt to push Kirk a bit.... In either case he was off by a ton as Cronyn won by some 12% over Kirk.....

[Impy]

Congressmen Johnny Isakson, usually called a rino here (he's not that bad at all, but Georgia can do a lot better) and Mac Collins (Conservative).

[Impy]

How abusrd.

[Glenn]

The pisser here is Fitzgerald (R-IL). He tried to do the right thing and the GOP chased him out of office in a most mean-spirited way. If that seat goes Dem, the GOP will be to blame for losing one they had in the bag.

[DefCon]

Yes, but that is just his oppostion in the primary.
I can't find out who the dims are going to run in this spot.

[Impy]

Oh. All the big name rats have passed.

http://www.politics1.com/ga.htm

My guess right now is Nadine Thomas will win the rat nod due to the black vote.

[raloxk]

I dont believe NC is a toos up state for the Presidentail election.

If people in Textiles are earning $15 per hour, that is probably the root of the job losses