Poll: In Pennsylvania, majorities in both parties, oppose gay marriage (and Kerry 47%, Bush 45%)

AP ^ | 3.9.04

[ambrose]

Poll: In Pa., majorities in both parties, oppose gay marriage The Associated Press 3/9/2004, 5:58 p.m. ET MANSFIELD, Pa. (AP) — Nearly two thirds of Pennsylvanians oppose gay marriage, including majorities among both Republicans and Democrats polled, according to a survey conducted by Mansfield University researchers. More than 1,750 people were surveyed between Feb. 15 and March 3 as part of the university's Pennsylvania Public Mind poll, the results of which were released Tuesday. About half were asked whether marriage should be defined as only between a man and a woman. Among those asked about marriage, 65.3 percent said marriage should only be between a man and a woman, compared with 30.3 percent who disagreed. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percent. Respondents who identified themselves as Republicans opposed gay marriage by almost 4 to 1, while about 57 percent of Democrats opposed gay marriage. Among the poll's other findings: _There was a statistical tie between Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. and the presumptive Democratic nominee, and President Bush. Kerry was favored by 46.7 percent, compared to 44.9 percent for Bush, with 8.5 percent undecided. The margin of error for the larger sample was plus or minus 2.4 percent. _Almost half of respondents, 49.2 percent, favored continuing the Bush tax cuts, compared to 41.3 percent who thought the tax cuts should be eliminated. _A majority, 52.5 percent, thought Bush was justified in going to war in Iraq, while 39.8 percent thought the war was not justified. Copyright 2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Copyright 2004 PennLive.com. All Rights Reserved.

[ambrose]

Only one mention of this poll on Google.

[ambrose]

Gore won Penn. by over 5%..

[TheBigB]

Key numbers:

Almost half of respondents, 49.2 percent, favored continuing the Bush tax cuts

52.5 percent, thought Bush was justified in going to war in Iraq

If the campaign will make an all-out effort, PA is very winnable for W. IMHO.

[CasearianDaoist]

Yes, this is not bad really. I am surprised.

[speedy]

PA is less liberal than NY or NJ. If you could minimize corruption in the Philly vote count (admittedly difficult), Bush could easily win.

[jayef]

Sound's like a tossup to me. PA would be a huge win for W.

[DM1]

God I hope that W wins PA and retains Ohio

[bearkat]

If these numbers are true, can anyone tell me why in the world Kerry has as many supporters as he does?
They like the Bush tax-cuts but they are going to vote for the guy who wants to take them away????!!
Aahhhhh.... the liberal conundrum.

[ArGee]

Maybe I'm just in a bad mood today, but I think we've lost the gay marriage debate. Once again it's been defined as an issue of feelings rather than facts.

Gays are nice and they have a right to be in love, so they should be allowed to marry (or civilly unite which amounts to the same thing). If you want to bring facts into that discussion you are just an evil, bigoted, hateful, homophobe and I won't talk about it with you.

Why?

Because self is all that matters.

Sorry if it's just me being in a bad mood.

Shalom.

[ambrose]

Well, it all depends on how the pollster asks the question. This pollster simply asked whether marriage should be defined as being between a man and a woman. As far as I can tell, there was no mention of a Constitutional Amendment in this poll.

[CasearianDaoist]

I know some people from PA (I live in NYC) and I get such mixed responses. Oddly enough, most of them are at least Republicans if not conservative. There are so few Republicans where I live that I can spot them a mile away.

I often hear from them that Nixon had a very bad effect on the GOP in PA - do not know if that is true, but that is what I hear. I have heard that Bush does not stand a chance and I have heard that it is in play. What do I know?

I would think that jobs issues would be the Dem trump card. If Bush can turn around the perception then I would think he had a chance given the cultural issues.

It would tickle me to get PA but I am not hopeful.

[comebacknewt]

Good news.

In Pennsylvania, the T section of the state (entire north portion of the state and the central portion of the state) are solidly Republican. Pittsburgh, and especially Philly, are solidly with the RATS.

The key for GWB will be to win a high percentage of the Pittsburgh and Philly suburb vote. If soccer moms have really become security moms, he just might pull it off.

[lasereye]

This doesn't give a clue of whether it's registered voters, all adults or likely voters. It seems if it was likely voters they would have said so. The question is, does Bush do better or worse among likelies than all voters? The standard assumption is better, but I'm thinking it's worse. I'm not even sure he does worse among all adults compared to likelies.

[Ditto]

Gays are nice and they have a right to be in love, so they should be allowed to marry...

They always have had the right to marry. It's just that the can't marry someone of the same sex, and neither can I. It is that simple. There is no discrimination. The rules work the same for both gays, straights or those just totally confused. People's sexual preferences have nothing to do with the legal act of marriage.

[Integrityrocks]

You poll 1750 people and then......." About half were asked whether marriage should be defined as only between a man and a woman."

How come only half were asked?

[ambrose]

He seems to do much worse among likely voters in Gallup's surveys.

[McGavin999]

Eventually, somebody is going to have to admit that the unemployment rate in the US is 5.6% while it's 10% in europe. That differential is NEVER mentioned. In other words, if the US economy is so much better then the economies in europe, why is everyone worried?

If the average unemployment during the Clinton years was 5.5% all we have to do is reduce that by a couple of points and we're better now then under Clinton.

We also need to look at the number of new business that have been started in the last couple of years.

[progop]

If GWB can win PA, he'd almost have a lock to win in Nov. However, at this time PA is a big "if". Though, this poll does make PA look to be in a good light (However, PA has gone Dem the last 3 elections).

Definitely for GWB to win PA he has to refute the "first president since Hoover to lose jobs"....This is killing him in middle-America (and it is growing). The GWB camp just needs to get out there and say "wait a second, this is not correct, they are using only half the story to recite this lie (only using payroll numbers, not Househould survey numbers....which are much more accurate historically).

I cannot figure out for the life of me why the GWB camp is not out there trying to change the premise on the economy. The facts are there, start "saying" them. That is all middle-America needs to hear....and they can say "OK, wait, there is another side to this "job loss" story"...but as of now.....the DEM line of "first president to lose jobs since Hoover" is the only game in town!

Remember, Bush Sr did not lose to Bill Clinton "per say" He lost to the slogan "worst economy in 50 years" (and Dem candidate would have beat Bush Sr in Nov of 1992)....

This is what is happening to GWB...it isn't "Kerry" that is going to beat him....it is " The First President since Hoover to lose jobs" LIE, that is going to beat him. Unless he puts himself out there and changes the premise of this lie.

[CasearianDaoist]

Well I do think that the 5.6 number is a little "cooked" but on the otherhand so is the EU number. In any event people tend not to put much credence in these figures anymore. Look at inflation, it may be low nationally but regionally it is amazing. Here in NYC the cost of living has going up about 20% in the last 3 years.

In this election national unemployment figures on the evening new will not sway people, they need to see at least regional results, and it really does not have to be huge, just enough to tip the balance and sway their minds. I hope it is coming soon or we are in deep trouble.

[progop]

Ditto your post....Exactly...the GWB camp needs to start talking up all the new "small-businesses" that have started up in the last 3 years (these jobs are not part of the "pay-roll survey the media and Dem's keep using to get there 2 million job loss lie")

How the GWB camp hasn't pointed this out to the public is crazy. Waiting to do it later in the year is not sound (by that time, the premise has been set...and GWB just looks like he's "saying what he has to, to try and get reelected"...this is how many in middle-America will take it).

Setting the premise on the economy should have been done all last year....and should have definitely started by now...Yet I seen GWB give a speech today...and he did nothing to set the record straight (mind you, it was a decent speech...but did nothing to change the premise of "first president to lose jobs" ).

[raloxk]

"Almost half of respondents, 49.2 percent, favored continuing the Bush tax cuts, compared to 41.3 percent who thought the tax cuts should be eliminated.

_A majority, 52.5 percent, thought Bush was justified in going to war in Iraq, while 39.8 percent thought the war was not justified."

Opening for Bush.

PA has actually fared better than IL, OH and MI. Their unemployment I think is below the national average

[raloxk]

I think PA is quite conservative socially but liberal economically. Kind of the last state, maybe along with IA, that still is apart of the Roosevelt coalition.

[McGavin999]

Here in NYC the cost of living has going up about 20% in the last 3 years.

Hmmmm, ya think it might just have something to do with those two towers crashing down? Just remember, all those jobs were eliminated. Most of the companies moved out of the area and took down all the support business that were connected with the towers as well. Add to that the people who stopped visiting NYC, and the ones who decided to go to restaurants out of town (smoking ban) and you might have a reason for high unemployment and high cost of living.

[speedy]

I too live in NYC but grew up in the Philly suburbs, which at that time were about 70 percent GOP, and not RINO either. PA is a quirky state -- Conservative to relatively Conservative Senators and Governors like Santorum, Schweiker, Thornburg -- even Conservative (for them) Dems like Flaherty and Casey -- but also RINOs like Spector and Hugh Scott and Scranton and the occasional flaming Lib like Wofford or Rendell. Lots of professional, middle to upper middle class GOP in the Philly burbs, Bible belt in the center and northern and southern tiers, and socially Conservative but aging New Deal FDR-worshipping, largely Catholic centers in the Northeast and around Pittsburgh. These people are not totally beyond the reach of the GOP if the Dem is too wacky on social issues. Most of the hardcore Libs in Philly and to a lesser degree Pittsburgh. Solid poll watching in Philadelphia could give the state to Bush, but it will be close in any event. I love living in NYC, but the pervasive, Hall of Mirrors liberalism makes me want to scream.

[hunter112]

Well, it all depends on how the pollster asks the question. This pollster simply asked whether marriage should be defined as being between a man and a woman.

Exactly. When the question has been phrased differently, by referring to continuing discrimination against same-sex couples when it comes to the right to enjoy the benefits that heterosexual couples have (about the most radical way one could word it with a straight face), gay marriage does way better in the polling. When any of us see a 60% anti-gay marriage response in a poll, we need to look at the wording of the question in those cases, too.

If a shift in attitudes is to be accurately measured, it must be measured with the same question. If two areas of the country are to be compared, it must be on the same basis.

[RoseofTexas]

I cannot figure out for the life of me why the GWB camp is not out there trying to change the premise on the economy

HE IS! It's the friggin lib media WHORES who chose NOT to tell the America folk! We are royally SCREWED if W doesn't find a way around these hellish jerks! I hate to say this, yes it pains the hell outta me, but the friggin WHORES have the power of the pen and the airwaves and know exactly how to manipulate the sheeple! :(

[ArGee]

They always have had the right to marry. It's just that the can't marry someone of the same sex, and neither can I. It is that simple.

It's only that simple if you are thinking.

Gays want to have the right to marry the person they love.

They can only love members of the same sex.

The fact that they confuse love with sexual attraction, a symptom of an arrested development, never crosses people's mind. The fact that they claim they can only love someone with particular physical attributes, a symptom of an arrested development, never crosses people's mind.

The gays win because people would rather not think about it.

Maybe I'll be in a better mood tomorrow.

Shalom.

[CasearianDaoist]

It mostly has to do with anti-business policies of Bloomberg and his war on working people. He has raised residential property taxes by 18% across the board. You know in the outer boroughs we are not a bunch of limo liberals, we are just working stiffs. Another example he has put parking meters everywhere and raised the meters to 25 cents for thirty minutes (doubled it form where it was and increased the hours), AND they are 7 days a week now. I do not know the real figures but in my area there has to be at least 20% more meters. AND he has turned the cops loose. It is impossible not to get a ticket. A cop tried to give me a ticket for not having an up to date DOG license the other day (I was so mad that he backed down.) He upped the subway fare by 50 cents (and at the same time gave the transit union a 35 mill "bonus." He raised income taxes.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg. The smoking ban was a disaster. Just idiotic. I know people that have had pub for two generations that are losing them to this law. He could not stand up to the city unions or cut services to the various and usual suspect so he went after the middle class in the outer boroughs.

Bloomberg is possibly the worst mayor we have ever had. If NYC does recover from him it will take 15 years and that is if the next guy reverses his nonsense. Fat chance of that because the next guy will be some clubhouse Rat politician, and probably a minority too boot. <

The NYPD is so embarrassed at being made a profit center for the City that they have start a $100,000 add campaign entitled "It's Not Our Fault," I kid you not. Really.

And of course the stupid dems blame 1) Bush (for no reason at all) and 2) the GOP forgetting that Bloomberg is a life long Democrat who only crossed party line because the Rat Party here is so corrupt he would never get on the ticket. The local GOP, however, deserve it for letting him run on the ticket in the first place. The local GOP (and the NYS GOP, for that matter) is a crude joke, as sort of rag tag guerrilla army.

Oh and the local Rats that fret about the "deficit" are the same ones that were out shouting for a 21 bil bailout two and a half years ago and want even more now. Sheesh!

[CasearianDaoist]

Could not agree more with your take on PA and NYC (particularly the
Hall of Mirrors" bit. Which borough are you in?

[dalebert]

These are the same polls that said Gore won. If not for a lot of cheating there would never have been a recount. I wonder what will be done about it in November?

[KQQL]

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[KQQL]

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[KQQL]

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[jwalsh07]

He seems to do much worse among likely voters in Gallup's surveys.

Gallup is saucing dem turnout and intensity. Thats how they arrive at Kerry +5 and Bush -5 than the other polls.

Of course they do this in the face of crappy dem turnout in the primaries but they want to believe it so it must be true.

[KQQL]

I came across this today:

---

02/15/04 Des Moines register finds that 49 percent of likely Iowa voters support Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. He leads President Bush by seven points in the first election-year poll of Iowans. 42 percent say they'll vote for Bush, the incumbent Republican.
http://www.ktvotv3.com/Global/story.asp?S=1646597&nav=1LFsKqPD

[FRgal4u]

If Bush win PA, keep OH and FL, this race is his to lose. These three states will determine the outcome of this election. Bush can afford get 2 out of the 3 and still have a chance. Bust if is 3 for 3, his edge will be significant even he loses a few swing states like NH, MO, WV this fall.

[KC_Conspirator]

I think PA is winnable as well. If Bush campaigned here, he might hae a chance. He will have a tough time in the Erie and Pittsburgh area though due to the job losses.

[KC_Conspirator]

OHG, is IA ever part of the FDR coalition! Farmers there really think that Repblicans wear black top hats and will drive out to their farm from the bank and foreclose on them - just like the 1930s.

[ultima ratio]

Bush will win PA in all likelihood. The dem governor, Rendell, is very disliked by Pennsylvanians and this will dampen enthusiasm for the dem ticket. Bush is a known quantity, and Kerry has yet to be defined by Bush. If it's a virtual tie after all the hammering Bush has taken lately, he is in good shape. And don't forget--this is apparently a poll just of all adults. Bush may well be ahead among likely voters.

[Springfield45]

No one has mentioned this yet, but the fact that a terrorist-captured jet airliner crashed in Pennsylvania is going to have some impact in making the people of that state more likely to vote for someone security-minded and proven. I've heard that the President really boosted morale in PA after 9/11.