Skip to comments.Analysis of the Madrid Bombing Investigation
Posted on 03/14/2004 2:45:02 PM PST by Blindboy16
Update on Madrid Investigation
Compiled By: Ryan Mauro
Due to breaking developments in the Madrid bombing investigation, WorldThreats.com felt readers should be updated. We feel it is best to do this by proposing the three theories in this article.
1. Press reports since December 2003 did indicate that ETA was mobilizing for new terrorist attacks in Spain.
2. ETA has long been the traditional internal enemy inside Spain, and thus, rightly so, is the main suspect at first.
3. ETA traditional gives phone-call warnings before attacks. A blackmailer or blackmailers, previously unknown, sent threatening letters to the French president and interior minister, as reported by the New York Times of March 4, 2004. The letters were signed AZF, a new entity, and threatened to bomb railroads.
4. Despite contrary belief, ETA does have the expertise to conduct such attacks.
5. The media naturally will try to show Al-Qaeda behind attacks, as the term ETA is not appealing to outsiders as much as Osama Bin Laden is.
6. Leaving a parked van with explosives and Islamic audiotapes is unprofessional, and some experts are questioning if this was a plan to make it seem like Al-Qaeda was behind the attacks, or perhaps it was a Moslem splinter of ETA.
7. Al-Qaeda would be foolish to bomb Spain, and force Spain to act against Al-Qaedas well-established fundamentalist network in Spain and continental Europe. It is a crucial safe haven, said one expert.
8. ETA traditionally strikes before elections. In this case, elections were just days away.
9. ETA has a motive for striking Spain, as they knew the right-wing would win the elections anyway. It is also a goal of ETA to radicalize the Basque nationals, and to influence Spanish politics, or they will be forever gone.
10. ETA, as part of its campaign for prestige, would want to copy Al-Qaeda tactics.
11. It took over 5 minutes in between the blasts. When Al-Qaeda strikes with truck bombs, there usually is less time.
12. By linking the attack to the Iraq War by even a temporary presumed link to Al-Qaeda, this benefits the Socialist Jose Cuiz Rodriguez, whose platform involves bringing home the 1,300 Spanish troops. ETA is also socialist and likely identifies with him.
13. On February 29th, for the second time in two months, police captured a Madrid-bound van with 1,100 pounds of explosives. Two alleged ETA members were captured, but identities were withheld.
14. This may help stop a potential rapprochement between Madrid and Basque nations.
15. It is reported that the explosives used were of the same French type that the ETA has previously used.
16. Some say the Spanish government has an interest in blaming the ETA, as saying it was Al-Qaeda may energize the crowd saying they must leave Iraq.
The Al-Qaeda Theory
1. 5 Moroccans and 2 Indians have been arrested in Spain in connection with the bombings.
2. The attack occurred 911 days after September 11, 2001. It also occurred on 3-11.
3. Documents found on a jihad website last year said: We must make maximum use of the proximity to the elections in Spain in March next year. Spain can stand a maximum of two or three attacks before they withdraw from Iraq.
4. In 20 previous fatwahs, Al-Qaeda allies have called on liberation of Andalusia and Granada, once under Islamic control. The fatwas, according to Debkafile, in this believable analysis, explain that the fatwas called for a strategy of focusing on stolen Moslem lands, focusing on Istanbul first, followed by Spain, Italy (specifically the Vatican) and Austria. However, according to the intelligence, there is debate in the network over to either focus on Europe or to simultaneously strike at North America and the UK. According to this analysis, the senior leadership decided on attacking both continents. However, there is no way WorldThreats.com can confirm this decisionwe can only confirm the focus on stolen lands in Europe and those specific targets.
5. Al-Qaeda has in the past used the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades (likely a fictional group) to claim responsibility for attacks. This occurred not long after the blasts, and the letter was faxed to traditional Al-Qaeda media outlets to claim responsibility. This requires coordination with these outlets.
6. Simultaneous attacks like these are an Al-Qaeda trademark.
7. Railroads have been targeted by Al-Qaeda in the past.
8. A van packed with explosives and audio cassettes with verses from the Quran was found.
9. ETA is not a Muslim group.
10. ETA traditionally makes phone calls before attacks, and this did not occur. There were letters sent in France though, but the attacks occurred in Spain, and they were not signed by the ETA. 11. Al-Qaeda does have a motiveto force the Spanish to withdraw from Iraq.
12. Al-Qaeda may think it can survive the Spanish crackdown, or that one wont even occur. After all, Al-Qaeda bombed Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia, the most critical state that they have networks in, where the authorities wont crack down. This resulted in a crackdown, and Al-Qaeda likely had to expect that. They struck anyway.
13. Evidence of Al Qaeda involvement has grown after the Spanish government announced finding a videotape Saturday on which a man says Al Qaeda was punishing Spain for its support of the Iraq war. According to Spanish authorities, an Arabic-speaking man called a Madrid TV station to say where the tape could be found.
The ETA/Al-Qaeda Theory
Al-Qaeda may not want to use its own sleeper agents in attacks in Spain, as if the operatives are captured or if information on them is found in the investigation, this may harm the Al-Qaeda network. Instead, Al-Qaeda may want to use Basque nationals and/or newly imported bombers from North Africa, the Balkans or the Middle East. WorldNetDaily.com and other outlets have reported on the growing ties between Al-Qaeda affiliates and radical groups of all kinds (radical leftists, neo-Nazis, socialists, etc.). Thus, we should expect some sort of alliance to carry out attacks. In 2001, Al-Qaeda representatives met with ETA representatives to form ties. They agreed to join forces for attacks in Europe. Representatives met 3 times (December 2000, February 2001 and July 1, 2001). According to this intelligence, ETA would provide car bombs, and Al-Qaeda would provide the suicide bombers. This would explain why the ETA attacks on the railroads were planned previously. IF there is a state sponsor involved, Iran is the likely suspect. This would, they would hope, force Spain out of Iraq (destabilize the situation so radical Shiites can come to power) and force Europe to back off of pressure on Iran and other actions in the Middle East. Europe recently just finished exerting unprecedented pressure on Iran over problems with their cooperation with the IAEA. Spanish and other European intelligence are reportedly leaning to the idea that Al-Qaeda affiliates designated the targets, and established logistical support and safe havens for the attacks, using operatives from North Africa. They then used local terrorists, including Basque separatists, to help carry out the attacks. This type of hiring local groups is the new Al-Qaeda strategy. The intelligence indicates that Salafist Jihadiya in Morocco and Salafist Brigade for Combat and Call in Algeria are behind this (WorldTribune.com, March 12, 2004).
(Excerpt) Read more at worldthreats.com ...
ETA supplied explosives and logistics. AQ brought in low level expendable personnel that know nothing of operations.
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