2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 22, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	92.0	9	0
Alaska	92.0	3	0
Arizona	72.0	10	0
Arkansas	67.0	6	0
California	17.0	0	55
Colorado	78.0	9	0
Connecticut	13.0	0	7
Delaware	24.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	61.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	18.0	0	21
Indiana	86.0	11	0
Iowa	46.0	0	7
Kansas	94.0	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	84.0	9	0
Maine	22.0	0	4
Maryland	18.0	0	10
Massachusetts	5.0	0	12
Michigan	42.0	0	17
Minnesota	33.0	0	10
Mississippi	91.0	6	0
Missouri	63.0	11	0
Montana	90.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	67.0	5	0
New Hampshire	65.0	4	0
New Jersey	17.0	0	15
New Mexico	57.0	5	0
New York	13.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.0	7	0
Oregon	39.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	49.0	0	21
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	85.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	77.0	11	0
Texas	95.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	8.0	0	3
Virginia	88.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	49.0	0	5
Wisconsin	47.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		278	260

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 289.24 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[shield]

bmp

[Your Nightmare]

They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?

[Momaw Nadon]

They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?

Yes, the political futures traders on TradeSports.com think President Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio's 20 Electoral Votes.

[ScaniaBoy]

Note Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin who are all in the Kerry column with only a few percentage points. If they tip over to W, then Kerry is totally done for.

ScaniaBoy

[DM1]

Poll i read this morning Had Bush ahead of Kerry in PA

[smith288]

Bush has more work to do in Ohio... I think some independant commercials (ala Moveon) should be utilized in Ohio

[smith288]

I think some independant commercials (ala Moveon) should be utilized in Ohio

Done by conservatives...

[dogbyte12]

Well, this is all for fun and games, but it is interesting to note that people are believing that this is going to be a tight one. The first one in early January had people betting on a devastating Bush blowout, now they think he will have a close win. No time for complacency people. This one is going to be a bruiser.

[TomEwall]

These look to me to be more accurate guesses than the polls.

The state that to me looks most out of kilter is Minnesota. Minnesota was within 2% last time, but Bush is only given a 33% chance of winning, whereas Wisconsin is and Iowa are almost 50/50. Minnesota seems low.

Idaho seems low too. I don't think Kerry has a 5% chance. Gore lost by 40 points in 2000. That's a lot of ground to make up.

D.C. seems about right.

[DallasJ7]

I agree on Minnesota. Not only did Bush only lose by 2 points last time, but Minnesota is one of the most Republican trending states in the nation. Look what happened there in the '02 midterms. For now, I would put the odds there at near even.

[MattinNJ]

Place your bets ;-)

[TomEwall]

I'm not much of a gambler, but betting that Bush will win Idaho sure seems like a safe bet to me. Of course, betting that Kerry will win D.C. looks pretty safe too. But then, you only win $1 on a $100 bet. But what would have to happen for Bush to win D.C.?

[tjwmason]

Poll i read this morning Had Bush ahead of Kerry in PA

That is not necessarily inconsistent with these data. What is being presented here is the probability of Bush or Kerry winning in each state, according to the dealers in this futures market. On the other hand, an opinion poll states the present voting inclination of the public. This implies that the dealers consider that it is likely that between now and election day Bush will lose ground in Pa.; however, it is also worth noting that the probability of Bush winning Pa. is given as 49%, this is as close a margin as possible, i.e., the dealers are probably evenly split on this case, with a tiny majority favouring Kerry in Pa.

[zbigreddogz]

I'd be looking for 4 horsemen in the sky if Bush won DC.

[zbigreddogz]

Overall, I think this is probably fairly on target with who's gonna win what, but on the other hand, I think some of the percentages are a bit loopy.

For example: I think Bush has a better shot at carrying Minnisota then it thinks 33% is way too low, and while I certainly don't think he's gonna win California, 17% is a bit low. I'd say he has about a 35-40% chance of winning Cali, especially with 'Govanor Arnold' in the statehouse.

Likewise, I think Lousiana, Ohio, and Florida are a bit too strong in the Bush column. I'd say all of these are like 52% in his favor at most.

[Owen]

Gamblers are not always right. Money bet is not always "smart money". The betting favorite in a horse race only wins about 33% of the time.

Volunteer to GOTV, in battleground states. Not just where you live. Be willing to drive somewhere adjacent/possible if it is a battleground state to volunteer.

[TomEwall]

Bush was projected as a landslide winner when it was thought Dean would win the nomination. When it became clear Kerry would be the nominee, things went back basically to Bush-Gore with a few exceptions, almost all good for Bush.

Better for Bush:
1) There are several states that Bush can go ahead of with very little movement
2) New Mexico is in the Bush camp
3) Pennsylvania 50/50
4) Florida in Bush camp

Worse for Bush:
1) W.V. 50/50
2) MN and OR have moved away

To win the election, Kerry would have to keep all the states Gore won, plus win some state or combination of states to add up to 10 points. This looks like it means he would have to win Florida, Missouri or Ohio. These states are at 61, 63 and 65 resp. Bush, to extend his lead to about 100 EV only needs to move 4 states which are at 49, 49, 47 and 46 (PA, WV, WI, and IA).

[zbigreddogz]

Oh, and does Bush really have an 83% chance at winning Indiana? Seems a bit high to me, especially if Kerry picks Evan Bhay (SP?)

[zbigreddogz]

People keep saying that WV is gonna be tougher for Bush this time, but I don't see it. Gore lost it because of Gay issues and Gun Control. Kerry makes Gore look like a piker on these issues, and he's a new england liberal, not a southerner. I just don't see the down home folk from WV voting for a gun-grabbing Mass. lib.

I think Bush should be favored to win WV because of this.

[TomEwall]

I agree with Minnesota, but the other states I think make sense.

17% is about 5 to 1, which is about the same as what Illinois is. That seems about right to me. Maybe a little low, but not too much. It would take about a ten point movement in the polls for Bush to win, which is a lot.

I think Ohio and Florida are correct. For Kerry to win the election, he most likely has to take either Florida, Missouri or Ohio. Kerry is currectly a 3 to 2 dog to win the presidency, which is about the same odds as these states.

Likewise there would have to be quite a large movement in the polls for Louisiana to go to Kerry.

[hresources]

If you look at the States given to Kerry, several of them are close to a 50-50 split. On the other hand, all of the States give to Bush show the probability of him winning those States very high. I can't see Kerry taking any of the States given Bush, but I sure can see Bush taking some of Kerry's.

[TomEwall]

WV has been kind of puzzling for me too. I guess it's the job situation that has made people think WV has moved to Kerry. In addition to the factors you cited, WV is a very patriotic state, which should help Bush.

Bush took WV by 6 points last time, which is quite a lot to move. OTOH, Gore took PA by 5. It seems odds to think that both PA and WV have gotten tighter.

[ought-six]

"They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?"

Busg stands a better chance of winning Pennsylvania and Michigan than he does Ohio, and this survey shows Bush losing BOTH Pennsylvania and Michigan. If this survey is anywhere near accurate, we've got a problem.

[Plutarch]

This looks like it means Kerry would have to win Florida, Missouri or Ohio. These states are at 61, 63 and 65 resp.

From Kerry's perspective it looks quite daunting. There are no 50-60% Bush states for Kerry to capture, but plenty of 40-50% Bush states for Bush to work on.

[MattinNJ]

One thing is for sure-don't bet on Jersey. Joisey is lost.

[The Californian]

bump for further study

[cuz_it_aint_their_money]

I would have to agree with the others here,
Pennsylvania (and not just cuz I’m from there) and West Virginia are a statistical “dead heat.”
I think the only reason that they are giving these states to Kerry is to keep betting interest up.

[zbigreddogz]

Why? He lost both last time and won, and this time, because of the census, he could lose a small state he won, such as Navada, New Hampshire, or West Virginia, and still won.

I think he'll carry Ohio, and every other state he carried last time, minus one or two, plus 3 or 4 Gore sates.

[zbigreddogz]

I hope your right about Lousiana, it was a squeeker last time. A point or two I believe.

And I just thought I would point out, because of the census, Missouri won't win it for Kerry if Bush picks up any of the possible Blue States. I think this election will be decided by Ohio and Florida, and I think Bush is strongly favored to win both.

[TomEwall]

Bush won by 8 points, pretty comfortably in that election. http://www.jsonline.com/election2000/nov00/preztally110700.asp

[JohnBDay]

I just don't see the down home folk from WV voting for a gun-grabbing Mass. lib.

They did in 1988.

[TomEwall]

Actually Bush could lose 2 of those states and still win. Given the same results as last time, he would win 278-260 (interestingly enough, this agrees with what is shown above, except WV and NM are flip-flopped). NV, NH and WV have 4 or 5 EV's. Losing 2 of them could make it a tie, in which case Bush would most likely win. Plus there's a chance one of the Maine EV's could go to Bush. (Maine is an odd state that doesn't necessarily give all the delegates to one guy).

I agree with you regarding Ohio. Of the 3 states, OH, PA and FL, I think Ohio is the least likely to go to Kerry. It's really hard to see Bush winning the election if he loses Ohio.

A recent poll shows Bush slightly ahead in Michigan. Given that, it's hard to see how he could be behind in Ohio. I think the people betting the money have it right, and Ohio is a likely Bush state at this point.

[lasereye]

I think this election will be decided by Ohio and Florida, and I think Bush is strongly favored to win both.

According to the polls Kerry leads slightly in FL. I believe Bush is even or slightly ahead in OH. I don't know where you get strongly favored. I think there's a good chance every state goes the same as last time except that one or both of those goes Democratic giving Kerry the election.

[JohnBDay]

Oh, and does Bush really have an 83% chance at winning Indiana? Seems a bit high to me, especially if Kerry picks Evan Bhay (SP?)

To me it seems low. Indiana has gone for the Republican candidate in fifteen of the past sixteen presidential elections.

[NarniaSC]

But what would have to happen for Bush to win D.C.?

Untouched photos of a smiling Kerry in full KKK regalia.

[pctech]

It would be great if someone could track how the figures have changed over the time period this tracking poll has been taking place. Any takers??????

[Momaw Nadon]

It would be great if someone could track how the figures have changed over the time period this tracking poll has been taking place. Any takers??????

See post #2.

[pctech]

I don't mean that exactly, I mean a speadsheet or sorts so us numbnuts (As Congressman Billy Bob likes to say) have something we can point to and actually see the trend.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

Thanks for updating these predictions weekly.

I've noticed that Tradesports.com has lines on the total number of electoral votes Bush will win. As I recall, he was listed with about a 60% chance of winning the election (at least 270 electoral votes), and about a 50% chance of getting 300 or more electoral votes. God bless the Irish!

[zbigreddogz]

Polls shmoles. It's March. Some Fla. polls show Bush up anyway, and he's got the machine on the ground, Jeb, and a state that's been trending more and more Republican. Remember that 'too close to call' race in 2002 that the Media kept telling us was a horerace between Jeb and McBride? Well, Jeb won it with 55%. If Mel Martinez wins the primary, It'll help him even more by energizing the Cuban vote.

I'm a little worried about Ohio, but I still think it'll be Bush country. Might be tight, but not all that worried.

[zbigreddogz]

Are you kidding? Longface would win it even more if this happened. This would just be 'proof' that the Republican attack machine was in full swing, and it would energize turnout.

Hell, a similar thing worked in Philidelphia.

[zbigreddogz]

Yes, but that was a long time ago. Just 4 years ago, they went Bush big because of Guns and Gays. Kerry is worse then Gore on both these issues, and isn't from the South.

Oh, and the gay stuff really wasn't an issue when Dukakis won.

[zbigreddogz]

Interesting. How do they keep electing dem Gov's and Senators then?

[zbigreddogz]

Huh. Looks like your right. I woulda sworn that was a 1-2 point state. Guess I must have my memory screwed up.

[JohnBDay]

Interesting. How do they keep electing dem Gov's and Senators then?

Because Indiana Democrats are more conservative than national Democrats.

[meatloaf]

I got a surprise when I looked at the March issue of the Farm Bureau News in West Virginia. The WV Farm PAC endorsed Bush! Outstanding. I think my fellow mountaineers know Kerry is a poseur. I think WV should be shown 51% for Bush at this point.

[Recovering_Democrat]

But what would have to happen for Bush to win D.C.?

Bovines would have to sprout wings and soar with the eagles.

[Political Junkie Too]

I finally refined my Monte Carlo database and ran 100,000 simulated elections for each of the linked sets of probabilities in this thread. Here are my results:

Calendar_Date Bush_EV Kerry_EV Probability_Of_Winning
21-Jan-04.....341.46326.....196.53674.....96.71%
26-Jan-04.....334.8122.....203.1878.....95.24%
02-Feb-04.....323.47283.....214.52717.....91.76%
09-Feb-04.....307.77926.....230.22074.....82.35%
23-Feb-04.....298.0089.....239.9911.....75.29%
01-Mar-04.....295.95191.....242.04809.....73.47%
08-Mar-04.....289.10218.....248.89782.....67.14%
15-Mar-04.....288.83366.....249.16634.....66.95%
22-Mar-04.....289.48814.....248.51186.....67.65%

-PJ