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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 22, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 03/22/2004 9:54:00 AM PST by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 92.0 9 0
Alaska 92.0 3 0
Arizona 72.0 10 0
Arkansas 67.0 6 0
California 17.0 0 55
Colorado 78.0 9 0
Connecticut 13.0 0 7
Delaware 24.0 0 3
District of Columbia 1.0 0 3
Florida 61.0 27 0
Georgia 90.0 15 0
Hawaii 13.0 0 4
Idaho 95.0 4 0
Illinois 18.0 0 21
Indiana 86.0 11 0
Iowa 46.0 0 7
Kansas 94.0 6 0
Kentucky 88.0 8 0
Louisiana 84.0 9 0
Maine 22.0 0 4
Maryland 18.0 0 10
Massachusetts 5.0 0 12
Michigan 42.0 0 17
Minnesota 33.0 0 10
Mississippi 91.0 6 0
Missouri 63.0 11 0
Montana 90.0 3 0
Nebraska 95.0 5 0
Nevada 67.0 5 0
New Hampshire 65.0 4 0
New Jersey 17.0 0 15
New Mexico 57.0 5 0
New York 13.0 0 31
North Carolina 84.0 15 0
North Dakota 95.0 3 0
Ohio 65.0 20 0
Oklahoma 95.0 7 0
Oregon 39.0 0 7
Pennsylvania 49.0 0 21
Rhode Island 5.0 0 4
South Carolina 85.0 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 77.0 11 0
Texas 95.0 34 0
Utah 95.0 5 0
Vermont 8.0 0 3
Virginia 88.0 13 0
Washington 35.0 0 11
West Virginia 49.0 0 5
Wisconsin 47.0 0 10
Wyoming 95.0 3 0
Totals   278 260


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralcollege; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 289.24 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 03/22/2004 9:54:02 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
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To: Momaw Nadon
Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

2 posted on 03/22/2004 9:54:27 AM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
bmp
3 posted on 03/22/2004 9:57:26 AM PST by shield (Scientific Discoveries of the century reveal GOD!!!!)
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To: Momaw Nadon
They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?
4 posted on 03/22/2004 10:03:43 AM PST by Your Nightmare
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To: Your Nightmare
They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?


Yes, the political futures traders on TradeSports.com think President Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio's 20 Electoral Votes.

5 posted on 03/22/2004 10:11:59 AM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Note Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin who are all in the Kerry column with only a few percentage points. If they tip over to W, then Kerry is totally done for.

ScaniaBoy
6 posted on 03/22/2004 10:21:04 AM PST by ScaniaBoy
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To: ScaniaBoy
Poll i read this morning Had Bush ahead of Kerry in PA
7 posted on 03/22/2004 10:25:05 AM PST by DM1
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To: Momaw Nadon
Bush has more work to do in Ohio... I think some independant commercials (ala Moveon) should be utilized in Ohio
8 posted on 03/22/2004 10:27:44 AM PST by smith288 (Who would terrorists want for president? 60% say Kerry 25% say Bush... Who would you vote for?)
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To: smith288
I think some independant commercials (ala Moveon) should be utilized in Ohio

Done by conservatives...

9 posted on 03/22/2004 10:28:44 AM PST by smith288 (Who would terrorists want for president? 60% say Kerry 25% say Bush... Who would you vote for?)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Well, this is all for fun and games, but it is interesting to note that people are believing that this is going to be a tight one. The first one in early January had people betting on a devastating Bush blowout, now they think he will have a close win. No time for complacency people. This one is going to be a bruiser.
10 posted on 03/22/2004 10:29:16 AM PST by dogbyte12
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To: Momaw Nadon
These look to me to be more accurate guesses than the polls.

The state that to me looks most out of kilter is Minnesota. Minnesota was within 2% last time, but Bush is only given a 33% chance of winning, whereas Wisconsin is and Iowa are almost 50/50. Minnesota seems low.

Idaho seems low too. I don't think Kerry has a 5% chance. Gore lost by 40 points in 2000. That's a lot of ground to make up.

D.C. seems about right.
11 posted on 03/22/2004 10:34:30 AM PST by TomEwall
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To: TomEwall
I agree on Minnesota. Not only did Bush only lose by 2 points last time, but Minnesota is one of the most Republican trending states in the nation. Look what happened there in the '02 midterms. For now, I would put the odds there at near even.
12 posted on 03/22/2004 11:15:24 AM PST by DallasJ7
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To: TomEwall
Place your bets ;-)
13 posted on 03/22/2004 11:15:54 AM PST by MattinNJ (America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our people.)
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To: MattinNJ
I'm not much of a gambler, but betting that Bush will win Idaho sure seems like a safe bet to me. Of course, betting that Kerry will win D.C. looks pretty safe too. But then, you only win $1 on a $100 bet. But what would have to happen for Bush to win D.C.?
14 posted on 03/22/2004 11:49:24 AM PST by TomEwall
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To: DM1
Poll i read this morning Had Bush ahead of Kerry in PA

That is not necessarily inconsistent with these data. What is being presented here is the probability of Bush or Kerry winning in each state, according to the dealers in this futures market. On the other hand, an opinion poll states the present voting inclination of the public. This implies that the dealers consider that it is likely that between now and election day Bush will lose ground in Pa.; however, it is also worth noting that the probability of Bush winning Pa. is given as 49%, this is as close a margin as possible, i.e., the dealers are probably evenly split on this case, with a tiny majority favouring Kerry in Pa.
15 posted on 03/22/2004 11:57:10 AM PST by tjwmason (A voice from Merry England.)
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To: TomEwall
I'd be looking for 4 horsemen in the sky if Bush won DC.

16 posted on 03/22/2004 12:01:30 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: shield
Overall, I think this is probably fairly on target with who's gonna win what, but on the other hand, I think some of the percentages are a bit loopy.

For example: I think Bush has a better shot at carrying Minnisota then it thinks 33% is way too low, and while I certainly don't think he's gonna win California, 17% is a bit low. I'd say he has about a 35-40% chance of winning Cali, especially with 'Govanor Arnold' in the statehouse.

Likewise, I think Lousiana, Ohio, and Florida are a bit too strong in the Bush column. I'd say all of these are like 52% in his favor at most.

17 posted on 03/22/2004 12:06:57 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: All
Gamblers are not always right. Money bet is not always "smart money". The betting favorite in a horse race only wins about 33% of the time.

Volunteer to GOTV, in battleground states. Not just where you live. Be willing to drive somewhere adjacent/possible if it is a battleground state to volunteer.
18 posted on 03/22/2004 12:06:59 PM PST by Owen
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To: dogbyte12
Bush was projected as a landslide winner when it was thought Dean would win the nomination. When it became clear Kerry would be the nominee, things went back basically to Bush-Gore with a few exceptions, almost all good for Bush.

Better for Bush:
1) There are several states that Bush can go ahead of with very little movement
2) New Mexico is in the Bush camp
3) Pennsylvania 50/50
4) Florida in Bush camp

Worse for Bush:
1) W.V. 50/50
2) MN and OR have moved away

To win the election, Kerry would have to keep all the states Gore won, plus win some state or combination of states to add up to 10 points. This looks like it means he would have to win Florida, Missouri or Ohio. These states are at 61, 63 and 65 resp. Bush, to extend his lead to about 100 EV only needs to move 4 states which are at 49, 49, 47 and 46 (PA, WV, WI, and IA).
19 posted on 03/22/2004 12:07:10 PM PST by TomEwall
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To: Momaw Nadon
Oh, and does Bush really have an 83% chance at winning Indiana? Seems a bit high to me, especially if Kerry picks Evan Bhay (SP?)

20 posted on 03/22/2004 12:09:32 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: TomEwall
People keep saying that WV is gonna be tougher for Bush this time, but I don't see it. Gore lost it because of Gay issues and Gun Control. Kerry makes Gore look like a piker on these issues, and he's a new england liberal, not a southerner. I just don't see the down home folk from WV voting for a gun-grabbing Mass. lib.

I think Bush should be favored to win WV because of this.


21 posted on 03/22/2004 12:13:06 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: zbigreddogz
I agree with Minnesota, but the other states I think make sense.

17% is about 5 to 1, which is about the same as what Illinois is. That seems about right to me. Maybe a little low, but not too much. It would take about a ten point movement in the polls for Bush to win, which is a lot.

I think Ohio and Florida are correct. For Kerry to win the election, he most likely has to take either Florida, Missouri or Ohio. Kerry is currectly a 3 to 2 dog to win the presidency, which is about the same odds as these states.

Likewise there would have to be quite a large movement in the polls for Louisiana to go to Kerry.
22 posted on 03/22/2004 12:31:20 PM PST by TomEwall
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To: Momaw Nadon
If you look at the States given to Kerry, several of them are close to a 50-50 split. On the other hand, all of the States give to Bush show the probability of him winning those States very high. I can't see Kerry taking any of the States given Bush, but I sure can see Bush taking some of Kerry's.
23 posted on 03/22/2004 12:32:56 PM PST by hresources
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To: zbigreddogz
WV has been kind of puzzling for me too. I guess it's the job situation that has made people think WV has moved to Kerry. In addition to the factors you cited, WV is a very patriotic state, which should help Bush.

Bush took WV by 6 points last time, which is quite a lot to move. OTOH, Gore took PA by 5. It seems odds to think that both PA and WV have gotten tighter.
24 posted on 03/22/2004 12:35:50 PM PST by TomEwall
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To: Your Nightmare
"They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?"

Busg stands a better chance of winning Pennsylvania and Michigan than he does Ohio, and this survey shows Bush losing BOTH Pennsylvania and Michigan. If this survey is anywhere near accurate, we've got a problem.
25 posted on 03/22/2004 12:42:36 PM PST by ought-six
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To: TomEwall
This looks like it means Kerry would have to win Florida, Missouri or Ohio. These states are at 61, 63 and 65 resp.

From Kerry's perspective it looks quite daunting. There are no 50-60% Bush states for Kerry to capture, but plenty of 40-50% Bush states for Bush to work on.

26 posted on 03/22/2004 12:48:55 PM PST by Plutarch
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To: TomEwall
One thing is for sure-don't bet on Jersey. Joisey is lost.
27 posted on 03/22/2004 12:50:07 PM PST by MattinNJ (America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our people.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
bump for further study
28 posted on 03/22/2004 12:54:55 PM PST by The Californian
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To: Momaw Nadon
I would have to agree with the others here,
Pennsylvania (and not just cuz I’m from there) and West Virginia are a statistical “dead heat.”
I think the only reason that they are giving these states to Kerry is to keep betting interest up.
29 posted on 03/22/2004 1:02:25 PM PST by cuz_it_aint_their_money (The only way liberals win national elections is by pretending they're not liberals. - Rush Limbaugh)
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To: ought-six
Why? He lost both last time and won, and this time, because of the census, he could lose a small state he won, such as Navada, New Hampshire, or West Virginia, and still won.

I think he'll carry Ohio, and every other state he carried last time, minus one or two, plus 3 or 4 Gore sates.
30 posted on 03/22/2004 1:47:33 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: TomEwall
I hope your right about Lousiana, it was a squeeker last time. A point or two I believe.

And I just thought I would point out, because of the census, Missouri won't win it for Kerry if Bush picks up any of the possible Blue States. I think this election will be decided by Ohio and Florida, and I think Bush is strongly favored to win both.





31 posted on 03/22/2004 1:51:15 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: zbigreddogz
Bush won by 8 points, pretty comfortably in that election. http://www.jsonline.com/election2000/nov00/preztally110700.asp
32 posted on 03/22/2004 1:59:11 PM PST by TomEwall
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To: zbigreddogz
I just don't see the down home folk from WV voting for a gun-grabbing Mass. lib.

They did in 1988.
33 posted on 03/22/2004 2:02:15 PM PST by JohnBDay
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To: cuz_it_aint_their_money
Actually Bush could lose 2 of those states and still win. Given the same results as last time, he would win 278-260 (interestingly enough, this agrees with what is shown above, except WV and NM are flip-flopped). NV, NH and WV have 4 or 5 EV's. Losing 2 of them could make it a tie, in which case Bush would most likely win. Plus there's a chance one of the Maine EV's could go to Bush. (Maine is an odd state that doesn't necessarily give all the delegates to one guy).

I agree with you regarding Ohio. Of the 3 states, OH, PA and FL, I think Ohio is the least likely to go to Kerry. It's really hard to see Bush winning the election if he loses Ohio.

A recent poll shows Bush slightly ahead in Michigan. Given that, it's hard to see how he could be behind in Ohio. I think the people betting the money have it right, and Ohio is a likely Bush state at this point.
34 posted on 03/22/2004 2:05:02 PM PST by TomEwall
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To: zbigreddogz
I think this election will be decided by Ohio and Florida, and I think Bush is strongly favored to win both.

According to the polls Kerry leads slightly in FL. I believe Bush is even or slightly ahead in OH. I don't know where you get strongly favored. I think there's a good chance every state goes the same as last time except that one or both of those goes Democratic giving Kerry the election.

35 posted on 03/22/2004 2:05:33 PM PST by lasereye
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To: zbigreddogz
Oh, and does Bush really have an 83% chance at winning Indiana? Seems a bit high to me, especially if Kerry picks Evan Bhay (SP?)

To me it seems low. Indiana has gone for the Republican candidate in fifteen of the past sixteen presidential elections.
36 posted on 03/22/2004 2:07:06 PM PST by JohnBDay
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To: TomEwall
But what would have to happen for Bush to win D.C.?

Untouched photos of a smiling Kerry in full KKK regalia.
37 posted on 03/22/2004 2:07:27 PM PST by NarniaSC (Wanted: a Neocon action figure)
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To: Momaw Nadon
It would be great if someone could track how the figures have changed over the time period this tracking poll has been taking place. Any takers??????
38 posted on 03/22/2004 2:33:31 PM PST by pctech
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To: pctech
It would be great if someone could track how the figures have changed over the time period this tracking poll has been taking place. Any takers??????


See post #2.

39 posted on 03/22/2004 3:17:09 PM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
I don't mean that exactly, I mean a speadsheet or sorts so us numbnuts (As Congressman Billy Bob likes to say) have something we can point to and actually see the trend.
40 posted on 03/22/2004 3:47:43 PM PST by pctech
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To: Momaw Nadon
Thanks for updating these predictions weekly.

I've noticed that Tradesports.com has lines on the total number of electoral votes Bush will win. As I recall, he was listed with about a 60% chance of winning the election (at least 270 electoral votes), and about a 50% chance of getting 300 or more electoral votes. God bless the Irish!

41 posted on 03/22/2004 3:55:42 PM PST by PeoplesRepublicOfWashington
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To: lasereye
Polls shmoles. It's March. Some Fla. polls show Bush up anyway, and he's got the machine on the ground, Jeb, and a state that's been trending more and more Republican. Remember that 'too close to call' race in 2002 that the Media kept telling us was a horerace between Jeb and McBride? Well, Jeb won it with 55%. If Mel Martinez wins the primary, It'll help him even more by energizing the Cuban vote.

I'm a little worried about Ohio, but I still think it'll be Bush country. Might be tight, but not all that worried.
42 posted on 03/22/2004 8:26:02 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: NarniaSC
Are you kidding? Longface would win it even more if this happened. This would just be 'proof' that the Republican attack machine was in full swing, and it would energize turnout.

Hell, a similar thing worked in Philidelphia.

43 posted on 03/22/2004 8:27:59 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: JohnBDay
Yes, but that was a long time ago. Just 4 years ago, they went Bush big because of Guns and Gays. Kerry is worse then Gore on both these issues, and isn't from the South.

Oh, and the gay stuff really wasn't an issue when Dukakis won.

44 posted on 03/22/2004 8:30:13 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: JohnBDay
Interesting. How do they keep electing dem Gov's and Senators then?

45 posted on 03/22/2004 8:31:44 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: TomEwall
Huh. Looks like your right. I woulda sworn that was a 1-2 point state. Guess I must have my memory screwed up.

46 posted on 03/22/2004 8:37:27 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: zbigreddogz
Interesting. How do they keep electing dem Gov's and Senators then?

Because Indiana Democrats are more conservative than national Democrats.
47 posted on 03/22/2004 9:04:19 PM PST by JohnBDay
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To: ScaniaBoy
I got a surprise when I looked at the March issue of the Farm Bureau News in West Virginia. The WV Farm PAC endorsed Bush! Outstanding. I think my fellow mountaineers know Kerry is a poseur. I think WV should be shown 51% for Bush at this point.
48 posted on 03/22/2004 9:09:36 PM PST by meatloaf
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To: TomEwall
But what would have to happen for Bush to win D.C.?

Bovines would have to sprout wings and soar with the eagles.

49 posted on 03/24/2004 12:44:09 PM PST by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
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To: Momaw Nadon
I finally refined my Monte Carlo database and ran 100,000 simulated elections for each of the linked sets of probabilities in this thread. Here are my results:

Calendar_Date Bush_EV Kerry_EV Probability_Of_Winning
21-Jan-04.....341.46326.....196.53674.....96.71%
26-Jan-04.....334.8122.....203.1878.....95.24%
02-Feb-04.....323.47283.....214.52717.....91.76%
09-Feb-04.....307.77926.....230.22074.....82.35%
23-Feb-04.....298.0089.....239.9911.....75.29%
01-Mar-04.....295.95191.....242.04809.....73.47%
08-Mar-04.....289.10218.....248.89782.....67.14%
15-Mar-04.....288.83366.....249.16634.....66.95%
22-Mar-04.....289.48814.....248.51186.....67.65%

-PJ

50 posted on 03/26/2004 7:02:52 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (It's not safe yet to vote Democrat.)
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