2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 22, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	92.0	9	0
Alaska	92.0	3	0
Arizona	72.0	10	0
Arkansas	67.0	6	0
California	17.0	0	55
Colorado	78.0	9	0
Connecticut	13.0	0	7
Delaware	24.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	61.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	18.0	0	21
Indiana	86.0	11	0
Iowa	46.0	0	7
Kansas	94.0	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	84.0	9	0
Maine	22.0	0	4
Maryland	18.0	0	10
Massachusetts	5.0	0	12
Michigan	42.0	0	17
Minnesota	33.0	0	10
Mississippi	91.0	6	0
Missouri	63.0	11	0
Montana	90.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	67.0	5	0
New Hampshire	65.0	4	0
New Jersey	17.0	0	15
New Mexico	57.0	5	0
New York	13.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.0	7	0
Oregon	39.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	49.0	0	21
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	85.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	77.0	11	0
Texas	95.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	8.0	0	3
Virginia	88.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	49.0	0	5
Wisconsin	47.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		278	260

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

Thanks for updating these predictions weekly.

I've noticed that Tradesports.com has lines on the total number of electoral votes Bush will win. As I recall, he was listed with about a 60% chance of winning the election (at least 270 electoral votes), and about a 50% chance of getting 300 or more electoral votes. God bless the Irish!

[zbigreddogz]

Polls shmoles. It's March. Some Fla. polls show Bush up anyway, and he's got the machine on the ground, Jeb, and a state that's been trending more and more Republican. Remember that 'too close to call' race in 2002 that the Media kept telling us was a horerace between Jeb and McBride? Well, Jeb won it with 55%. If Mel Martinez wins the primary, It'll help him even more by energizing the Cuban vote.

I'm a little worried about Ohio, but I still think it'll be Bush country. Might be tight, but not all that worried.

[zbigreddogz]

Are you kidding? Longface would win it even more if this happened. This would just be 'proof' that the Republican attack machine was in full swing, and it would energize turnout.

Hell, a similar thing worked in Philidelphia.

[zbigreddogz]

Yes, but that was a long time ago. Just 4 years ago, they went Bush big because of Guns and Gays. Kerry is worse then Gore on both these issues, and isn't from the South.

Oh, and the gay stuff really wasn't an issue when Dukakis won.

[zbigreddogz]

Interesting. How do they keep electing dem Gov's and Senators then?

[zbigreddogz]

Huh. Looks like your right. I woulda sworn that was a 1-2 point state. Guess I must have my memory screwed up.

[JohnBDay]

Interesting. How do they keep electing dem Gov's and Senators then?

Because Indiana Democrats are more conservative than national Democrats.

[meatloaf]

I got a surprise when I looked at the March issue of the Farm Bureau News in West Virginia. The WV Farm PAC endorsed Bush! Outstanding. I think my fellow mountaineers know Kerry is a poseur. I think WV should be shown 51% for Bush at this point.

[Recovering_Democrat]

But what would have to happen for Bush to win D.C.?

Bovines would have to sprout wings and soar with the eagles.

[Political Junkie Too]

I finally refined my Monte Carlo database and ran 100,000 simulated elections for each of the linked sets of probabilities in this thread. Here are my results:

Calendar_Date Bush_EV Kerry_EV Probability_Of_Winning
21-Jan-04.....341.46326.....196.53674.....96.71%
26-Jan-04.....334.8122.....203.1878.....95.24%
02-Feb-04.....323.47283.....214.52717.....91.76%
09-Feb-04.....307.77926.....230.22074.....82.35%
23-Feb-04.....298.0089.....239.9911.....75.29%
01-Mar-04.....295.95191.....242.04809.....73.47%
08-Mar-04.....289.10218.....248.89782.....67.14%
15-Mar-04.....288.83366.....249.16634.....66.95%
22-Mar-04.....289.48814.....248.51186.....67.65%

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Reformatted

I finally refined my Monte Carlo database and ran 100,000 simulated elections for each of the linked sets of probabilities in this thread. Here are my results:

Electoral Vote Trends
based on 100,000 simulated elections

Date	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes	Probability Of Winning
1/21/2004	341	197	96.71%
1/26/2004	335	203	95.24%
2/2/2004	323	215	91.76%
2/9/2004	308	230	82.35%
2/23/2004	298	240	75.29%
3/1/2004	296	242	73.47%
3/8/2004	289	249	67.14%
3/15/2004	289	249	66.95%
3/22/2004	289	249	67.65%

-PJ