Bush was projected as a landslide winner when it was thought Dean would win the nomination. When it became clear Kerry would be the nominee, things went back basically to Bush-Gore with a few exceptions, almost all good for Bush.
Better for Bush:
1) There are several states that Bush can go ahead of with very little movement
2) New Mexico is in the Bush camp
3) Pennsylvania 50/50
4) Florida in Bush camp
Worse for Bush:
1) W.V. 50/50
2) MN and OR have moved away
To win the election, Kerry would have to keep all the states Gore won, plus win some state or combination of states to add up to 10 points. This looks like it means he would have to win Florida, Missouri or Ohio. These states are at 61, 63 and 65 resp. Bush, to extend his lead to about 100 EV only needs to move 4 states which are at 49, 49, 47 and 46 (PA, WV, WI, and IA).
posted on 03/22/2004 12:07:10 PM PST
People keep saying that WV is gonna be tougher for Bush this time, but I don't see it. Gore lost it because of Gay issues and Gun Control. Kerry makes Gore look like a piker on these issues, and he's a new england liberal, not a southerner. I just don't see the down home folk from WV voting for a gun-grabbing Mass. lib.
I think Bush should be favored to win WV because of this.
This looks like it means Kerry would have to win Florida, Missouri or Ohio. These states are at 61, 63 and 65 resp.
From Kerry's perspective it looks quite daunting. There are no 50-60% Bush states for Kerry to capture, but plenty of 40-50% Bush states for Bush to work on.
posted on 03/22/2004 12:48:55 PM PST
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