Ohio poll: Bush tied with Kerry

The Cincinnati Enquirer ^ | 27 Mar 04 | Carl Weiser

[xzins]

Ohio poll: Bush tied with Kerry

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Survey finds splits along lines of region, race, gender, age

By Carl Weiser Enquirer Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - President Bush and Democrat John Kerry are in a dead heat in Ohio, the state widely considered the most important in the race for the White House.

The University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll released Friday showed Kerry at 46 percent and Bush at 44 percent, close enough to be within the poll's plus or minus 3.9 percentage-point margin of error.

The poll confirms Ohio's status as battleground and bellwether. Like the nation as a whole, Ohio is about evenly split over whom to elect.

And it is polarized into so-called Democratic blue states and Republican red states - though in Ohio's case, northeastern Ohio is blue and southwestern Ohio red. The political newsletter Hotline calls Ohio a "purple state."

The split isn't just geographic: Kerry is more popular among women, Bush among men.

Young people 18 to 29 overwhelmingly support Kerry while Bush's top support is among those 45 to 64.

High school dropouts love Kerry; college graduates prefer Bush.

"There is incredible polarization. Part of that is you have an administration that seeks to divide rather than unite," said James Ruvolo, state chairman of the Kerry for President Committee.

Anyone who takes strong stands is going to stir up opposition, and President Bush has aggressively fought terrorism and cut taxes, said Greg Hartmann, who chairs Bush's campaign in Hamilton County.

"He's got a clear vision for where he wants America to go. There's not a lot of waffle in President Bush. The same can't be said for his opponent," Hartmann said.

The polarization is more pronounced than at this time during the 2000 election, said The Ohio Poll's co-director, Eric Rademacher, though he cautioned the polls aren't directly comparable - the 2000 poll relied on likely voters while Friday's used registered voters.

"The adversarial climate seems to be a little bit stronger than it was at this point in 2000," he said. "We're really seeing registered voters very much gravitating toward their candidate, providing very negative sorts of opinions about the other side's candidates."

That means moderates and independents, about 8 percent to 12 percent of the electorate, will decide the election, he said.

If that's true, this poll has good news for Kerry: He's leading solidly among moderates and independents.

"Ohio voters are raging moderates," Ruvolo said. "Narrow ideological appeals only work with a small part of each party's base."

Ohio is universally considered the most important swing state of the 2004 election. It has been called "the new Florida," "Ground Zero," and the No. 1 battleground state in the November election.

Earlier this month, MSNBC's Chris Matthews threatened to move his Hardball show there because "you people in Ohio are going to decide the election." Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean this month said, "Ohio is going to be the real battleground state."

No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Since 1964, the candidate winning Ohio has won the presidency.

Cincinnati residents already have seen a barrage of ads from the Bush campaign, the Kerry campaign, and private groups.

"I think it's interesting that Ohio is a swing state," said Gina Marsh, a stay-at-home mom and Bush opponent from Liberty Township. "I feel very fortunate to live here because this is where it's all going to go down."

Hartmann said Kerry's lead among independents and moderates is only temporary. The poll of 632 registered voters was taken March 10 to March 22, in the weeks after Kerry and other Democrats had barnstormed the state for the crucial March 2 primary.

"I don't think the massive organizational effort going on in the Bush campaign has had a chance to influence public opinion yet. But it will in the end," Hartmann said. The campaign plans a neighborhood-by-neighborhood onslaught, with signs, meetings and an army of volunteers.

"This election really is about getting your supporters to the polls, much less about fighting for the middle," he said.

But Ruvolo, echoing Rademacher, said swing voters will decide the election. He said the support of moderates has encouraged him.

Other poll highlights:

• Ralph Nader gets about 5 percent of the vote although among 18- and 19-year-olds, the figure is 20 percent. Rademacher said that group tends to be politically volatile.

• Overall, Ohioans have an unfavorable view of Nader.

• Only 15 percent of Ohio's blacks say they have a favorable opinion of President Bush. Among white Ohioans, it was 54 percent.

[miltonim]

High school dropouts love Kerry; college graduates prefer Bush.

lol

[xzins]

This is the Cincinnati Enquirer's take on the poll you posted yesterday. The Enquirer is historically a conservative, Republican newspaper.

Also

• Only 15 percent of Ohio's blacks say they have a favorable opinion of President Bush. Among white Ohioans, it was 54 percent.

This is actually a hopeful stat. If I remember correctly, last election I believe Pres. Bush only got 5% or less of the black vote.

[xzins]

Incidentally, to go with the info on the black vote, Ken Blackwell is currently the most liked politician in Ohio among conservative republicans.

Ken is African-American and has a great reputation in the black community as well. Pres. Bush would do well to enlist his aid immediately.

[raloxk]

This is an awful poll for Bush, to be at 44%, he is well below the 51% he got in 2000.

[ingeborg]

The Enquirer is a Gannett rag and pretty much prints what it is told.

[xzins]

I grew up on the Cincy Enquirer. Their international news is generally just AP blurbs, but local and state they are right on the money and hard-hitting.

I think you're wrong. I consider it a very good newspaper.

[xzins]

This poll would definitely reflect the primary bounce that Kerry got when there were 4 or 5 DEMOCRAT candidates campaigning Ohio just last month and getting lots of local news coverage.

I'm fairly confident that Bush will be up in the next quarter. This state is traditionally Republican.

[raloxk]

ok, if you say so.

O know that despite all the problems Bush 41 had, he lost OH by only one percent I believe in 1992.

[demlosers]

High school dropouts love Kerry...

You'll need more than luck to get these guys to vote LOL!

[faithincowboys]

This is trouble!! Ohio is the whole ball game. I must say, Team Bush has been really weak in getting the message out and challenging Kerry on jobs. Kerry wants to appease the Europeans on Kyoto, raise CAFE standards (total job killer) and was against drilling in ANWR --which would have created lots of jobs. Kerry is the most liberal Senator and he is anti-jobs. Team Bush needs to get the damn word out.

[xzins]

See post #8

[adam_az]

There's some 220 days left... You don't show all your cards as soon as you get dealt your hand.

[raloxk]

"There's some 220 days left... You don't show all your cards as soon as you get dealt your hand."


I remember the same attitude in 1992. Dont worry GHW Bush will soon unload on Clinton like hedid on Dukakis

[metoooo]

KERRY WINS OHIO

[KarlInOhio]

High school dropouts love Kerry; college graduates prefer Bush.

But the press says that the Dems are the educated elite while the Republicans are slack-jawed yokels. How can this be? < /sarcasm>

[Samwise]

Ohio needs you!

[faithincowboys]

I do think Team Bush should have preempted Kerry's hideous, full-of-it economic rollout in Detroit yesterday with an ad about his stance on CAFE standards and Kyoto. Take this long chinned schmuck down already.

[faithincowboys]

What, why do you say that??

[faithincowboys]

If I were Bush I would push a lot of fed money to Ohio--OH is the ballgame, get them back to work.

[mwl1]

Kerry will not carry Ohio, or Indiana, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or Michigan either.

By the time we are finished with Lurch, he'll be about as popular as crabs in a whorehouse.

[BOOTSTICK]

I wonder if Kerry's 10% tax cut for corperations will send the anti capitalist hard core lefties in the democrat party running to Nader?

[WhiteGuy]

Bump for later comment

[dionyza]

So, out of the number of people who were contacted to participate in the poll....

The article doesn't specify how the poll was conducted, or when -- two very important aspects to take into consideration when judging the validity of such an endeavor.

The only "poll" which counts comes in November.

-D.

[dc-zoo]

I thought he proposed a 5% tax cut for corporations.

[raloxk]

"The only "poll" which counts comes in November."


you know I am geting tired of hearing this, because it isnt true. This is something said by people when they are losing.

[Rokke]

You're right. Former Presidents Dukakis, Dole, Mondale and Gore agree with you as well.

[raloxk]

Dole never lead Clinton in 1996. They best he did was tie or slight lead in 1995. After the SOTU in 1996, Clinton broke out and never looked back.

Dukakis lead Bush but Bush was not an incumbent

Gore did trail Bush for like 95% of the campaign, but again Gore wasnt the incumbent

Mondale did lead Reagan 48-46 in July 1984 right after the DEM convention.


If you want a comparison to history look at Carter and Reagan in 1980. They were essentially tied through out the year until mid-October.

What Bush's mid 40% poll numbers show is, the public has decided they dont want him as President anymore. It is Kerry who bounces around from 43-52% indicating that pollesters can push undecideds to Kerry. If they can push undecideds to Kerry certainly the DEM operatives can on election day.

[syriacus]

High school dropouts love Kerry; college graduates prefer Bush.

How can that be?

Can a million Democrats, who assert Bush-lovers are mindless, be wrong? [/sarcasm]

[uncitizen]

"Ohio voters are raging moderates,"

Ohioans are democrats by virtue of the fact of the sheer number of union workers in the state. However, they are socially conservative. Gay marriage and the abortion issue (wrt Laci's Law) will put Bush over the top if he presses Kerry on those issues.

[lavrenti]

Actually, you make good points. Bush has not broken out of the mid-40s, reflective of the sucessful tactics employed by the Democrats.

What wins American elections these days is hatred and fear. This is indicated by the strategy employed. The Democrats would not do this if they did not think it did not work. Clinton proved that.

This is so annoying, this "new tone" business. It is wartime, with a recovering economy from a crisis that in earlier times a similar situation would touch off a depression. These are two factors where which an incumbant President should be re-elected with ease.

In victory, the defeated must have their wills broken. This is the part of Sun Tzu Rove and W. seem to have skipped over.

So, here we go again.

[Rokke]

Mid 40's? Looks like you are selectively choosing your polls. Very selectively. If your points were really valid, you wouldn't have to bias your facts. In fact, Bush's approval numbers are actually closer to 50% across the board which is amazingly similar to Bill Clinton during this time in 1996. But this election cycle is not the same as 1996 as this is the first year in history that opposition party primaries were held so early. It is nearly impossible to make equitable comparisons to previous election cycles for this point on the calendar. You obviously believe Bush is going to lose. Congratulations. For you, the election is over. The rest of us look forward to a good race.

[MEG33]

It's March.

[BonnieJ]

It is increasingly obvious that the sole reason some people are here is to undermine the confidence of Republicans. One of them is on this thread and many recent threads, with nothing to contribute other than thoughts of defeat...many months before the election.

[MEG33]

Do you ever look at the glass half full?

[CzarNicky]

If Bush is tied among registered voters in Ohio he will win the state. I wonder why they aren't doing likely voters probably too much of an advantage for Bush.

[Dane]

What Bush's mid 40% poll numbers show is, the public has decided they dont want him as President anymore

Sheesh ralox, seems that you are going way overboard with your spamming of "Malox moments" here on FR.

There is 7 months to go, but I forgot you are the all knowing seer of the truth.

BTW since you are so clairvoyant could you give me a stock tip so that I can make a million bucks this Monday.

Oh yeah, could you also give me your take on the Dukakis Presidency.

[Rokke]

Here's a poll from March 1996

CNN/TIME POLL
March 6-7
Registered Voters'
Presidential Choice

Clinton 46%
Dole 33
Perot 14

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

Raloxk's prediction in 1996...Clinton loses in a landslide. Obviously his mid-40's numbers prove the American people want him out of office.

[AFPhys]

You solidly nailed that ral..ox person. A true naysayer in every thread I can recall... I'm not going to bother to check their recent posts, though.

[raloxk]

I cant predict stocks because they are a ramdom walk not predictable like elections are: As for Dukakais you didtn read my post as to why there is no comparison between 1988 and 2004

[raloxk]

Geez: youre really missing the point. Kerry isnt down at 33% and Clinton actually didnt do that much better than the poll predicted. He got 49%.

So my prediction for Ohio earlier looks very good. Bush 48% Kerry 52%. Nader wont even be on the ballot

[ilgipper]

If they are tied at this point, this makes me more confident. Kerry is still on the primary high. The campaign has yet to begin. People do not know Kerry yet. As more people know him, his numbers will fall.

[raloxk]

"{Do you ever look at the glass half full?"


If Kerry was the incument stuck at 45%, Id be saying the exact samethings

[Dane]

I cant predict stocks because they are a ramdom walk not predictable like elections are: As for Dukakais you didtn read my post as to why there is no comparison between 1988 and 2004

LOL! You are really full of yourself.

BTW, if elections are so predictable these days then how do you explain away the midterms of 2002, where 100 years of midterm election precedent were thrown out the window(i.e Republicans gaining seats in both houses of Congress).

[raloxk]

"BTW, if elections are so predictable these days then how do you explain away the midterms of 2002, where 100 years of midterm election precedent were thrown out the window(i.e Republicans gaining seats in both houses of Congress)."


9-11-2001

[NittanyLion]

It is increasingly obvious that the sole reason some people are here is to undermine the confidence of Republicans. One of them is on this thread and many recent threads, with nothing to contribute other than thoughts of defeat...many months before the election.

I think this is the reason of much discord here. Does this site exist to discuss the good and bad of political news as it impacts our philosophy, or to bolster our confidence by only discussing that which is complimentary of it?

[Dane]

"BTW, if elections are so predictable these days then how do you explain away the midterms of 2002, where 100 years of midterm election precedent were thrown out the window(i.e Republicans gaining seats in both houses of Congress)."

9-11-2001(ralox's reply)

That's it? Well gee if you were intellectually honest then you wouldn't be spamming your replies on every thread that basically leave out 9/11.

Are you Richard Clarke?

[Rokke]

But Dole did much better than the poll predicted. He got 41%. Regardless, I believe this was your point...

"What Bush's mid 40% poll numbers show is, the public has decided they dont want him as President anymore."

If you no longer stand by that point, I understand.

[raloxk]

yes, that was why the GOP won seats in 2002. The public has mostly forgotten 9/11 or increasingly things Bush had soemthing to do with it