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To: sjy
Moot, as in you're playing from a different set of history books, sjy.

Would you consider wasting your time with someone who denied the holocaust or was of the opinion that 9/11 was a hoax?

I doubt it, yet here you are delving deep into the trashcan of Serb disinformation on what happened in the Balkans in the 1990's. Strange how that works.

Serbs report the most lost family members of any group in Bosnia during the Bosnian war

No kidding? Is the USIS's relaying of this fairy tale supposed to impart some credibility to it?

Serbs formed a demographic plurality on +/-70% of pre-war Bosnia

Wrong. That fallacy rests upon the misrepresentation of farm ownership, i.e., that the Serbs were farmers while the Muslims lived in the cities.  Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 1995

total fatalities in the Bosnian war were in the vicinity of 50-60k

And some people say only 10,000 perished in Jasenovac, and since that number is out there, it must have some validity, right?

Or does mathematical nullification only apply when it benefits the Serbs?

MacKenzie's consistent account of a civil war in which no side were angels and in which press reporting became parti pris for one side and fact-free stands up very well over time and accords with lots of *experts* actually.

No, it doesn't. Mackenzie tries to portray the belligerents as equals, which was not the case, and his parrotting Bosnian Serb comedy routines regarding the various atrocities their forces were responsible for is beneath contempt - he was repeating BS about the breadline massacre without knowing the first thing about it other than what the Serbs had told him, and never bothered to correct himself when the facts became available.

As to your random Dallaire excerpt - are the Tutsis now supposed to have carried out a slaughter of Hutus at the outset of the genocide? How Bosniac of them.

Right before the slaughter began in Rwanda, General Dallaire proposed a raid on an arms cache - he proposed action, and even though it would have saved a few lives at the most, it would have been something.

His UN superiors instead put the kaibosh on it and told him to inform the Rwandan government, who's arms cache it was, of the existence of said cache. (In the interest of fairness, no doubt.)

I failed, yes. The mission failed. They died by the thousands, hundreds of thousands. - General Dallaire.

Compare that to General Mackenzie, who when tasked with providing food and supplies to a population, did so, blithely ignoring the fact that he was merely allowing them an opportunity to survive in order to be slaughtered by the Serb gunners ringing Sarajevo - not that that concerned him at all, for if the Serbs actually killed any of the people he was supposed to be helping, he could just blame it on the victims and forget about it - his reputation would emerge unscathed, there was nothing he could do, he was powerless in the face of these ancient blood feuds and besides, everybody was equally guilty.

Speaking of the UN's escorting humanitarian convoys in Bosnia.

This, from my perspective, is a dumb idea because people don't interfere with humanitarian convoys with artillery and sniper fire, mortars and tanks. They interfere by sniping women and children in the street. One person stands in front of you and warns that if you drive one more foot down the road, his buddies over the next hill will cut 20 throats. You've then got three choices: You can leave with your tail between your legs. You can keep driving and let them cut. Or you can resist them, which means you're no longer a peacekeeper, you're now taking sides. - General Mackenzie

And that, in a nutshell, is the difference between Dallaire and Mackenzie. One tried to make a stand and take a side, and recognizes the failure, while the other simply declared moral equivalency and ran off with his tail between his legs and now has the temerity to wax idiotic about Kosovo as if anybody gave a damn what he says besides the Serbs, who, to reiterate my point, have utilized him as a paid mouthpiece in the past.

111 posted on 04/11/2004 8:55:13 PM PDT by Hoplite
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To: Hoplite
Here’s some tables from the 1981 and 1991 census in Bosnia:

Here are ethnographic maps based on the 1981 census:

NB the relatively small ethnodistributional changes recorded b/w ’81 and ’91. The data does not rely merely on land title or cadastral records, but looks at population by district, since land title alone is not a comprehensive indicator of how many people live in a region, which is one you and your boy Malcolm can put away in the “no duh” file. Recently I saw an internaut trying to argue that since most land in Israel belongs to the state, and since Arabs own 3% of the land and Jews 2%, therefore the Arabs are the latifundia of Israel, and the idea that they’ve been dispossessed and driven off their land is a myth. Maybe you and he can hook up. He also shares your charming trait of branding anyone who disagrees with him a négationniste, btw, so you should make a cute couple.

If you have data which can withstand any serious scrutiny and which shows that those Slobo-hugging Serbophiles of the State Dept and the CIA had it wrong about fatalities in the Bosnian war in the spring of 1995, before the biggest U.S.-supported onslaughts against the BSA and Serb civilians were to take place, and which show it to be a one-sided slaughter of Muslims running into the 100’s of 1000’s, it’s fine with me if you share it with the whole class. I’d be interested, MacKenzie would be interested. Former Yugoslav desk officer for the State Dept George Kenney would be interested, since as he explained:

From contacts in the U.S. intelligence community, I am positive the US government doesn't have proof of any genocide. And anyone reading the press critically can see the paucity of evidence, despite interminably repeated claims and bloodcurdling speculation. Last April 23 I published some of my research on fatalities in The New York Times Magazine, in which I challenged allegations of 250,000 dead: my estimate was 25,000 to 60,000 deaths for civilian and military on all sides in Bosnia, from the start of the war to the date of the article. One Pulitzer Prize winning correspondent harangued me for not giving up my sources, but never bothered retracing my steps, which he could have easily done. I have yet to see a written rebuttal, and I don't expect to, because a careful search through press reports shows unambiguously that estimates for huge numbers of fatalities came originally from the Bosnian government without documentation: journalists repeated them without corroboration, or even attribution, until the charges stuck. Reporters covering the Yugoslav war as NPR's Sylvia Poggioli put it (Nieman Reports. Fall 1993) " have been better at pulling emotional strings than at analyzing facts.

By Kenney’s own admission, his job was to “gin up” stories of one-sided massacring and ethnic cleansing by Serbs, which makes him a better man than you, since he at least admits he was a propagandist, and kinda feels bad about it.

And veteran NYT Balkans reporter David Binder would be interested too, since as he pointed out, even if one smacks together all the post-war calculations of humanitarian agencies on dead and missing, and not even counting for all apocryphal and double entries, the figure can’t surpass 70,000. But if consigning everyone from the State Dept to the USIA to Kenney to Binder etc to your grab-bag of purveyors of Serb “fairy tales” was some advertised plea for you not to be taken seriously, I’d say: Mission accomplished. I’m sorry if you can’t fit the fact that all sides prepared for war, raising party- and ethnic-based armies before the independence declaration, that all sides had backers elsewhere, that civilians on all sides took it in the teeth, that the Croatian regular forces were massacring Serb civilians by the dozens in Bosnia in early April of 1992, that the first massacre of the war was the slaughtering of Serbs at Sijekovac in late March.. etc into your comic-book rendition of good guys and bad guys. But that’s your problem.

I’d vowed not to stoop to responding to your risible suggestion that MacKenzie’s take on Bosnia is the product of some Serb money pipeline, but since you cart out Rieff and Malcolm, it perhaps bears mentioning that countless Western policy wonks, academics and journalists have much more successfully manicured their résumés and turned much greater personal profit pumping out product supporting the élite line of punitive one-sided intervention in the Yugoslav conflicts and lopsided blaming of Serbia and Serbs for any and all wrongs than MacKenzie ever has inadvertently or otherwise from Serb “pressure groups.” This should’ve been obvious, but if it hasn’t occurred to you yet, you need to get out more.

As to your random Dallaire excerpt - are the Tutsis now supposed to have carried out a slaughter of Hutus at the outset of the genocide? How Bosniac of them.

You actually end up getting it almost right just by accident. But as the saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice a day. As a matter of fact there *was* a murderous invasion of Rwanda by a Tutsi army, hl. A textbook act of aggression by the Nuremburg laws. It was launched by Paul Kagame’s RPF-RPA, which was a total creation of the Ugandan army, in which the Tutsi emigration in Uganda had a major presence. It was Tutsi-officered and Tutsi-staffed. Kagame had been Uganda’s deputy chief of military intelligence. The raids began from Ugandan soil in 1989, prompting USAID to issue a report (ignored) objecting to U.S. military assistance to Uganda on the girly grounds that it had launched an aggressive war against its neighbour. A more robust invasion was launched in Oct. 1990. The aggression claimed 10’s of 1000’s of lives, overwhelmingly civilian and overwhelmingly Hutu, and created a million internal refugees (overwhelmingly Hutu) by 1993. Perhaps you were napping at the time.

One RPF/RPA offensive alone in early 1993 claimed about 40,000 lives, again overwhelmingly Hutu and overwhelmingly civilian. This alone probably represents more than all the lives lost on any one side in the Bosnian war. I realize this doesn’t matter to you, though I can well imagine your heartfelt concern were this to be visited on another people whom you’ve adopted as your human rights hobbyhorse. The country’s richest agricultural region, which supported a population of over 800,000, was essentially depopulated to 1800 souls by RPF terror. I believe this is what’s known as voting with your feet. A couple million more Rwandans voted with their feet when Kagame and the RPF, Dallaire’s buds, finally conquered power.

3 yrs after the RPF/RPA launched their war, and 100,000 mostly Hutu dead Rwandans and a million mostly Hutu internal refugees later, a “peace accord” was hatched at Arusha in summer ‘93, which provided for a multi-party transition government in which the murderers of the RPF could participate, and leading a 22-month transition to free multi-party elections. There was just one problem with that as far as Kagame and RPF were concerned, which was that they didn’t stand a chance in Hades of getting elected by the population they’d been terrorizing and slaughtering. A telling curtain-raiser were the free multiparty elections held in the “zone tampon” – the demilitarized zone – in 1993, which the RPF lost resoundingly, not electing a single representative and harvesting about 1% of the vote as I recall, while the governing party candidates won handily. Turns out that slaughtering people by the 10’s of 1000’s and driving them into flight by the 100’s of 1000’s isn’t a vote-getter. Go figure.

So the logic of Arusha, namely elections, had to be circumvented at any cost, and the RPF/RPA at least enjoyed a serious military advantage and could *decide* things that way, with no small assistance from their friend Dallaire. Their own intelligence, along with U.S. intelligence, predicted that if the Rwandan president was assassinated, it would provoke mass killings which would claim up to half a million lives. They actually evoked this scenario, and attached that figure, as now declassified docs show. They also knew the ensuing power vacuum and the mass terror would provide them with both the opportunity and the rationale for seizing power militarily. Sure the Rwandan Tutsi community, and lots of Hutus would be decimated by murderous mobs and militias, cuz the RPA had made so many friends over the years through their good deeds, but they weren’t Kagame’s principal support base. This was an invading army of the Tutsi emigration in Uganda with its own agenda, and any real scenario of majority rule + peace would make them toast.

And so on Kagame’s direct orders, an RPA hit squad shot down the plane carrying the presidents of Rwanda and Burundi, killing them both and the French crew. And the mass slaughter predicted by RPF and U.S. intelligence unfolded pretty much as predicted. The RPF promptly lied and accused their adversaries of the assassination, taking lots of the credulous Hoplites of the world along for the ride, and they along with their backer Clinton did everything they could to resist the demands from various countries for an inquiry into the affair, countries who apparently had the utterly girly notion that an assassination of 2 heads of state might warrant a criminal investigation. An investigation finally did take place under UN/ICTR auspices, and the then-ICTR president, Louise Arbour, to borrow your term, put the “kaibosh” on it and ordered its findings shelved when the lead investigator, Australian Michael Hourigan, made it clear the evidence pointed directly to Kagame and the RPF. But he and the informants assisting that inquiry – the ones Kagame didn’t have bumped off – then went on to assist French magistrate J-L Bruguière in his 6-yr long criminal investigation into the killings, which had been prompted by the girly demands of some French nationals to find out who’d killed their loved ones in the plane. Bruguière came to the same conclusion as Hourigan’s team in the kaiboshed ICTR inquiry, and the report was leaked to Le Monde a few weeks back, but perhaps you were napping through that one too.,1-0@2-3210,36-356013,0.html

Apropos the infamous 100-day slaughter in the spring/summer of 1994, it’s interesting to note that researchers are now finding that there was intensive killing even in the areas which the RPF claimed to control before the plane crash, and those who claim to have developed the most comprehensive data base on the 100 days, using Rwandan gov’t and survivor group data, now think that even in *this* period, which all agree saw the apogee of organized killing of Tutsis, a majority of the victims may have been Hutu. ( ). But that doesn’t even count the 10’s of 1000’s of Rwandans killed by the RPA before the April ’94 downing of Habyrarimana’s plane, nor the millions of Congolese and 100’s of 1000’s of Rwandans, mostly Hutu, slaughtered by the Rwandan and Ugandan armies since their Clinton-backed invasion of Zaire/Congo (Bubba was nice enough to have U.S. Special Forces there to help right from the get-go). The last UN info I saw on the Kagame/Museveni killing spree in Zaire/DRC put the death toll in the vicinity of 5 million – 5 times the top-end estimates of those killed in the 100-days of ’94 – and used the term “genocide.”

What to do when the truth – which has a stubborn way of surfacing – shows that the self-appointed gate-keeper of Rwanda holocaust remembrance turns out to be first-rank génocidaire and what’s more, the author of the very act which *everybody* for the last 10 yrs agrees was the catalyst of the 100-day killings of ’94, the lit match put to the powderkeg? Gérard Prunier of CNRS, whose ’95 book became the gold-standard for the Rwanda genocide industry, has now run afoul of Kagame and been denounced by the latter as a “revisionist” (sound familiar?) for putting forth the apparently offensive formulation of a “double-genocide.” But what else is a poor scientifique de service to do in the face of the simple and overwhelming math establishing that over the last decade and a half Kagame’s U.S.-backed wars have killed millions, and that considerably more Rwandan Hutus and Congolese have been snuffed in the conflicts in the Great Lakes region than have Rwandan Tutsis? Even apologetics has its limits (but not for Dallaire – see below). Faustin Twagimamungu, one of Kagame’s and Bubba’s showpiece “moderate Hutu” and the first prime minister appointed to Kagame’s gov’t in July ’94 following the RPF conquest, has denounced Kagame as a génocidaire and assassin who has the blood of millions of Congolese and 100’s of 1000’s of Rwandans on his hands. When Camerounian journalist Charles Onana wrote a book implicating Kagame in the presidential assassination and various war crimes, Kagame tried to sue Onana in France, but dropped his case when Onana didn’t back down, since he knew he’d get his a** whupped. Sometimes it’s lonely at the top, and maybe it’s because the noose of truth is tightening around Kagame that there weren’t as many high-level types on hand for the last genocide commemoration. It’s getting a little – uh – awkward.

But your boy Dallaire doesn’t disguise his affection and admiration for Kagame (“an extraordinary man”), and he mendaciously refers to the assassination of the Rwandan president in 1994 as an “accident” or « écrasement ». He’s also a little fuzzy – to put it kindly – on all the slaughter and RPF ethnic cleansing in the 1990-93 period, since one shouldn’t be rude to friends. Kagame and the Clinton administration pushed hard for the complete removal of the UN peacekeeping mission once the 100-day killfest began, but that doesn’t dampen Dallaire’s admiration either. He was very chummy with RPF milieux in his time there, frequently crashing for the night, if you’ll pardon the expression, at the RPA HQ, and hanging out with the Québécois wife of a Tutsi minister who didn’t disguise her enthusiasm for an RPF victory, (« si Dieux le veut, on va gagner!! » ) which could only be achieved militarily, given their, er, PR problems vis-à-vis the “ethnic vote” (of the country’s 90% majority “ethnics”…). He was happy to share MINUAR military intelligence with the RPA, which he talks about in the English, but not the French, edition of his book, curiously enough. The first big “peacekeeping” assignment Dallaire and his mission were tasked with was to escort 600 armed RPA killers – sorry “soldiers” – into downtown Kigali where they set up their base at the Parliament building. Kigali residents, including many who’d been driven off their land and lost everything to RPF terror, were able to watch this brave and honourable act and draw their own conclusions about Dallaire’s and MINUAR’s “neutrality.” But perhaps Dallaire’s and MINUAR’s noblest of all act of “peacekeeping” was to accede abjectly to the RPA’s demand to close Kigali airport for all but *incoming* air traffic, the better that the RPA hit squad could get a clear and unfettered bead on the Rwandan president so they could shoot down his plane and kill him. As an inspired act of “peacekeeping”, I’d rank that right up there with whoever got the idea of passing out the matches for the Reichstag Fire.

I’m sorry that the drunkard you put on such a pedestal got sliced to ribbons on the stand at Arusha, but I can’t say I’m surprised, nor is it clear how the quote is more “random” than yours of MacKenzie, since it speaks directly to the man’s integrity. Guess it was expecting too much for him to be truthful under oath in a criminal trial – after all it’s not his life that’s on the line here. If you want a straight shooter who presents well as a witness, well, I’d try to call Lew MacKenzie. A week before Kagame had the Rwandan president assassinated, Dallaire briefed foreign ambassadors to the effect that he found it doubtful that there was a “master plan” by the Rwandan government to provoke a confrontation, genocide, etc. He expressed the same doubts in an interview with Radio-Canada immediately upon his return from Rwanda, which doesn’t seem to have stopped his mythical transformation into some maligned, prophetic predictor of “the genocide.”

It’s interesting to ponder how many lives would have been saved by Dallaire and MINUAR doing their job and providing proper security at the airport and for Rwanda’s governing officials (the RPA hit squad operated from a district for which Dallaire had direct responsibility). Doubtless many more lives than woulda be saved by raiding the puny “arms cache”. Probably safe to say that if Izetbegovic hadn’t reneged, with U.S. encouragement, on the Cutilheiro plan, which would’ve averted war in Bosnia, more lives woulda been saved by that too.

122 posted on 04/12/2004 4:33:22 PM PDT by sjy
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