Posted on 04/25/2004 8:18:10 PM PDT by xzins
By Carl Weiser
Enquirer Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON - Why Ohio?
Ohio is the must-win state in the 2004 presidential election. That's been made clear through hours of local TV ads, front-page stories about Ohio's importance in USA Today and The Washington Post, and weekly visits from the candidates and their surrogates.
ABOUT OHIO
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Who says Ohio is the most important state in the 2004 presidential election? • The Washington Post, April 18 • The Hill, April 1 • USA Today, March 31 • Newsweek/MSNBC, Feb. 27 • Howard Dean, July 17, 2003 Gannett News Service |
But what exactly makes the Buckeye State more special than the 16 or so other usual battleground states? It's the mini-America.
"If you drive from Youngstown to Cincinnati, you've basically traversed most of the types of people and types of places you would find in the United States," said John Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron.
"Ohio was the first entirely American state," reads the Almanac of American Politics, "and one which ever since has seemed the epitome of American normalcy."
That normality comes not from conformity but just the opposite: the diversity and tensions and balkanized communities that make up Ohio.
It all ends up in a precarious political equilibrium, just as in the nation as a whole.
It makes sense to think of Ohio as five or six different states, said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll.
Just as on the national map, northeast Ohio is more Democratic. The rural areas, like the Plains, are Republican. Southwest Ohio, like the South, is Republican.
Overall, President Bush and John Kerry are tied in Ohio, according to the most recent Ohio Poll. But Kerry would beat Bush by 11 percentage points in northeast Ohio. In southwest Ohio, Bush would beat Kerry by eight.
In northeast Ohio, for example, when residents complain about the economy, they mean jobs are disappearing. In southwest Ohio, it means the cost of living is rising too fast and wages aren't keeping up, Rademacher said.
Even Democrats in Cincinnati are more conservative than Democrats in Cleveland, he said.
Most states are either overwhelmingly Republican or Democratic. The presidential results in Indiana or Massachusetts or Idaho are rarely in doubt.
That's true in many Ohio counties as well. Not once in the past five presidential elections has Hamilton County gone Democratic. Not once in the past five elections has Cuyahoga County gone Republican.
Ohio has about 15 battleground counties, similar to the number of battleground states - places where the margin of victory for either candidate in 2000 was less than 5 percentage points.
Someone studying elections for the first time would have a hard time believing Ohio is this important.
Its slow population growth means it will have one fewer electoral vote - 20 - than in 2000. In 1952, it had 25 electoral votes. Six other states have more electoral votes, including swing states Florida and Pennsylvania.
It doesn't much look like a battleground, judging from who runs the state. Republicans control every statewide office - two senators, governor, the congressional delegation, the Legislature, and everything in between. Fifteen years ago, Democrats controlled the state.
But Democrats have two major factors in their favor:
• The state has lost 270,000 jobs since the 2000 election.
• New campaign finance rules that have allowed anti-Bush groups to mutate into canvasser-hiring, direct-mailing, advertisement-airing behemoths.
Republicans believe their ace in the hole is social issues: abortion, gays and guns. Kerry has liberal records on all three.
In some ways, Ohio's importance is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The media and politicians hype Ohio. Almost every story about Ohio notes that no Republican has won the White House without winning the state.
President Bush came to Cincinnati to make his pitch to the heartland on the Iraq war in October 2002. He made Toledo his first stop after this year's State of the Union speech. Kerry returns to Ohio Monday and Tuesday, as part of a "Jobs First Express" bus tour, hitting Youngstown and Cleveland. He was just in Cincinnati April 6.
In 1996 The New York Times moved a reporter to Canton, Ohio, to gauge Middle America's pulse during the election.
The Washington Post announced Sunday it will be "returning regularly to Ohio" to keep tabs on who will win the election.
Not that anyone here is arguing.
Green, of the Ray Bliss Institute, said: "The pundits across the nation are right to single out Ohio."
E-mail cweiser@gannett.com
Ohio has about 15 battleground counties, similar to the number of battleground states
In 1996 The New York Times moved a reporter to Canton, Ohio, to gauge Middle America's pulse during the election.
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