JOHN KERRY'S QUIET COLLAPSE

New York Post ^ | 4/27/04 | JOHN PODHORETZ

[kattracks]

April 27, 2004 -- THE conventional wisdom is that the presidential election will be close. It's a 50-50 country, so the CW goes, just as it was in the year 2000.

Kerry is a terrible, terrible, terrible candidate.

It's not so much the policies he proposes, although they don't add up to all that much. The problem is Kerry himself. He no sooner opens his mouth than he sticks first one foot and then the other right in there.

[AntiGuv]

Guys, you should have gone with John Edwards.

Yep. They're gonna be whipping themselves for that one for a long time to come.. =)

[Travis McGee]

Will Kerry be the nominee after the convention, or will he step down for "medical reasons?"

If he steps down, who is going to step in? Will Hellary want it in 2004?

[Choose Ye This Day]

John Kerry is deeply troubled.

[Southack]

"Kerry has been the presumptive Democratic nominee for two months now. Ask yourself: Aside from fund-raising success, has he had a good day? Has he come up with a winning soundbite? Has he made a policy proposal you've heard people talking about?"

BWAAA HA Ha!

A Democrat with a positive, new policy proposal?!

That sort of sighting should get as big of a bounty paid as if you had just identified Al Zaqarawi.

[Sabertooth]

Quiet?

Plenty of folks are hearing that deadwood fall.

To say "Kerry is toast" is to insult bread.

[agincourt1415]

Yeah, I think we can guess that Kerry might not be the nominee.

[Southack]

"If he steps down, who is going to step in? Will Hellary want it in 2004?"

Keeping in mind Election 2004 dynamics, I see a half dozen viable replacements for Senator Kerry:

1. Senator Breaux
2. Senator Edwards
3. Former President Carter
4. Former Governor Dean
5. Former VP Gore
6. Senator Clinton

...and at least three of the above are probably the top candidates (minus Governor Richardson) for Senator Kerry's VP candidate (should JFK stay in the race).

[Flyer]

If he steps down

He will stay in. I think the Democrats have already conceded this election and have their sights set on 2008.

[Mo1]

Not so for Kerry. To put it mildly.
Yes, he has time, plenty of time, six months' worth of time. Kerry will surely get better, but that's only because he can't get much worse.

ROFL .. Ya wanna bet

[oceanperch]

What is the procedure, officially if he quits to bring the next Dem up to bat.

Can Hillary get in? Who would officially step up?

They can't be that sinister to plan this from the gate, can they?

[goldstategop]

The Democrats are prepared to do anything to beat Bush. If pulling a Torricelli manuever at the Democratic Convention would serve it, they'd do that. They could put Howie Dean back in or John Edwards, it wouldn't matter as long as the Democrat had a chance. If John F*ckin' is perceived to be damaged goods, he will be made to step aside for the good of the party.

[agincourt1415]

If Kerry drops below 40% in the Polls, they will find a way to dump him, remember we're talking about the CLINTON'S.

[AntiGuv]

What is the procedure, officially if he quits to bring the next Dem up to bat.

If he quits before the convention, then the procedure is simply to have an open convention where the delegates vote until someone gets a majority for nomination.

I have no idea what happens if he quits after the convention, especially if its after the state deadlines to appear on the ballot. Hmm.. I'm gonna try to figure that one out.

Can Hillary get in? Who would officially step up?

Yep. Anyone eligible to the Presidency can be nominated if Kerry quits. All they need is a majority of votes from the delegates.

[oceanperch]

Holy Mackerel! Please tell me I am having a tin foil moment.

[Capitalism2003]

We need to make this a HARD collapse...Kerry is wobbling...ready to go down...I think NOW is the perfect time for every grassroots conservative group to nail Kerry with everything we have...blast the media with emails demanding they cover Kerry's flip-flops...send in lots of anti-Kerry opinions to your local papers, etc. If every Freeper spent 20 minutes doing these things, and maybe sent $5.00 each to a few worthy organizations like Americans for Tax Reform or The Club For Growth, we could sponsor some nice new anti-Kerry ads and absolutely erase his chances for victory this year. All it takes is a small amount of time and a very small amount of money from a large group of people like the Freepers! Oh, and don't forget about getting a filibuster proof majority in the Senate...This is CRUCIAL if we are to get a real conservative agenda passed in a 2nd Bush term. Donate to the National Republican Senatorial Committee. They do an AWESOME job spreading cash in the battleground states where we have the best chances of picking up democrat senate seats. They have done a great job in the past few elections, and we now have a chance to strike the deathblow to liberalism...really.

[AnimalLover]

JOHN KERRY'S QUIET COLLAPSE

I just had a terrible thought!!! What if this continues to the Democratic Convention and then, knowing he's a loser, they nominate Hillary!

[DB]

Ain't going to happen.

Kerry's ego is far too great to step down. This is his life's dream. He'd run over his mother to continue now.

[M1911A1]

Is it up to Kerry to decide? Are the delegates locked in to voting for hime?

[DB]

Why now? The election is 6 months off.

We need the hard crash at a time there is no chance of replacement or recovery. It is now time to keep our powder dry.

[goldstategop]

They're pledged to vote for the candidate they're committed to but if he releases them, they can vote for any one they want. An open Democratic Convention would be a heck more exciting than four nights of Kerry.

[AntiGuv]

Please tell me I am having a tin foil moment.

I can't. Once upon a time, I had no doubt that whoever won the Dem primaries would be the nominee. Now, I'm honestly not so sure. They are perfectly able to nominate someone else if they so choose - and definitely if Kerry himself is somehow persuaded to drop out (or dies) - and I can't help but think that the Democrats are aware of the option..

BTW, I gave some thought to what would happen if Kerry dropped out after the convention. So long as it was before the state ballot deadlines [in September], then the Democratic Party could proceed to nominate someone else by whatever procedure they agreed upon. I imagine that they would reconvene another convention.

If he dropped out after that (or died - I've actually wondered about this before) then they would have two options.

First, they could again nominate someone else and petition the legislatures and the courts state-by-state to permit access to the ballot (it would probably end up in the Supreme Court for at least some number of states).

Second, they could just run the campaign & election with his name on the ballot, which would be much more complicated. This would definitely be the case if a presidential nominee died, say, the night before the election.

Anyhow, if Bush received an electoral majority, then no problem things just carry on. If Kerry (or whatever is on the ballot line) receives a majority, then things get very interesting. Those electors become uncommitted and they can then cast their vote for whoever they want, even for Kerry or whatever. If a majority of them cast their votes for one candidate (say, Kerry's VP nominee) then that person becomes President (so long as he or she is eligible). If a majority of these now-uncommitted electors can't agree (in other words, if no one gets a majority) then it just goes to the U.S. House of Representatives (and the Senate elects the Vice President).

If none of that works out then the line of succession kicks in and the Speaker of the House becomes President.

[DB]

I don't know, but I think delegates can ultimately vote however they want. They are suppose to represent the voters from all those earlier primaries and to do something else is a betrayal of those voters.

[Prince Charles]

I wonder if there are any Secret Service logs in the National Archives or at the Nixon library from that day that would clear this up.

[AntiGuv]

To be clear, that means if a majority of the total electors can agree, then whoever they choose becomes President. The way I worded it it's as if I'm saying a majority of just the uncommitted electors from the candidate who dropped out if he would've got a majority of the electoral votes had he stayed in.

[GottaLuvAkitas1]

"I don't know, but I think delegates can ultimately vote however they want."

Yup, they can.

[GOPyouth]

Kerry looked absolutely horrible today on GMA. If the press decides to go after this, this will severely hurt Kerry. Running for the top office of this country is quite difficult when you are on tape/photo/audio protesting against your country, throwing away your medals, cheering with Hanoi Jane, and so-on.

[claudiustg]

Bush is leading the war on terror and Kerry is arguing about throwing ribbons and medals at the White House. Priceless.

[Prince Charles]

[Capitalism2003]

I think we should do it now...pull out all the stops...lower the public's opinion of Kerry considerably...If we do this at a grassroots level, getting the necessary info into every local paper and running early ads in battleground states, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kerry drop to 35% nationwide...He may well rally up into the mid 40's by the democratic convention, but Bush will still have the lead, and he will still have his huge campaign fund to unload in the final months. I think we should soften Kerry up now...hit him with everything we have, then let the Bush team deliver the final blow.

[Bonaparte]

It's in the National Archives and has already been dug out by the Republicans.

[Prince Charles]

Cool. Now if only the medals can be located in a dusty file somewhere they can be thrown right back in Lurch's face.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

What's to clear up?

Medals = Ribbons (according to Kerry)

So if he tossed the ribbons and kept the medals he can say he did both. If the pictures show the ribbons flying like hand grenades, they were weighted with somebody else's medals. He's got every angle covered.

On the one hand, this issue is a distraction from the real issue: Kerry disrespects the military, disrespected his own service and did damage to the country with this symbolic act and others.

On the other hand, this petty discrepancy and Kerry's evasions are what brings and keeps the larger issue now even in the mainstream media for a long period of time who otherwise wouldn't bother mentioning it, which is what it takes to bring the larger issue gradually into the conscious brain of the uninvolved part of the electorate.

[DB]

And then during the dim's convention Kerry gets replaced by Hillary or someone else. Then what?

Trying to dig up background on a new dim candidate only months before a national election would be virtually impossible. All the Bush commercials against Kerry are already being made. Just like Dean, people are always excited about a candidate they really don't know anything about because they envision the person the way they want until proven otherwise.

What you suggest is a recipe for disaster if you ask me.

[Sabertooth]

I have no idea what happens if he quits after the convention, especially if its after the state deadlines to appear on the ballot. Hmm.. I'm gonna try to figure that one out.

In 1972, Senator Thomas Eagleton had to step down as George McGovern's VP candidate after the Democrat convention. McGovern picked Sargent Shriver as his Veep for the ticket several weeks later, and the Dem delegates approved him almost unanimously. There was no second convention, to my recollection, though I'm not sure how the delegates were polled.

[Sen Jack S. Fogbound]

"They're pledged to vote for the candidate they're committed to"

I may be wrong but I believe they are committed for Kerry only for the first ballot. After that, if he doesn't get the simple majority, the convention is open!

[Mo1]

There was no second convention, to my recollection, though I'm not sure how the delegates were polled.

It's my understanding that the delegates do have to vote on Kerry .. but they can also have another vote and nominate someone else if Kerry doesn't get a majority

I also read a comment from a Freeper that the DNC are replacing many of the delegates and many are ticked off by that ... I don't know how true that is though..

And take note that the dem candidates never dropped out of the race .. they just withdrew from the primary race

Also to throw into the mix ... remember what happen with Torricelli

I honestly have no idea what the DNC/Hellery are up to .. but you can bet they are up to no good

[Mo1]

I may be wrong but I believe they are committed for Kerry only for the first ballot. After that, if he doesn't get the simple majority, the convention is open!

That's my understanding of the rules

[C210N]

John Kerry DID NOT, let me repeat, DID NOT throw away any medals over any fence in 1971, his or anyones elses.

What he did throw, however, were his 'mettles'. He threw his Mettles over the fence.

Main Entry: met'tle

Pronunciation: 'met-'l

Function: noun

1 : SPIRIT : COURAGE

2 : quality of temperament

[stocksthatgoup]

So if he tossed the ribbons and kept the medals he can say he did both. If the pictures show the ribbons flying like hand grenades, they were weighted with somebody else's medals. He's got every angle covered.
Remember Kerry said he tossed the other guys' medals after the ceremony.

[Tall_Texan]

Second, they could just run the campaign & election with his name on the ballot, which would be much more complicated. This would definitely be the case if a presidential nominee died, say, the night before the election.

You're actually voting a ticket - President AND Vice President - on the ballot. Once again, the wisdom of our forefathers is revealed. If a presidential candidate died in the days leading up to the election, the "ticket" could still be voted upon with Vice Presidential nominee assuming the mantle if elected. That's why the Veep choice is important - sorta like the first runner up in the Miss America pageant. If for any reason Miss America is unable to fulfill her duties, the first runner up gets the job instead. Same with Veep nominees.

[Roy Tucker]

I hadn't realized Kerry served in Viet Nam.

[Talking_Mouse]

I have to disagree with you. We need to do that after he is fully nominated. The big collapse should be in September or October. When he CAN'T be taken off the ballots. With the capture of OBL, which I am sure will be sometime in the summer, and Senator Kerry's meltdown we will have a landslide for the White House as well as filibuster proofing the Senate.

Then on to Condi in '08.

[Boot Hill]

"Will Hellary want it in 2004?"

Depends on what the meaning of "it" is!

--Boot Hill

[HitmanLV]

What's with the love affair with Dr. Rice? I like her but I don't think she is made of presidential cloth. Maybe a VP, at this juncture.

Has she ever won elected office? Can she govern? Does anybody have any idea?

[BigWaveBetty]

He'd run over his mother to continue now.

Yes but, bless his heart, he'll have to borrow a car.

[NYpeanut]

That photo makes him look like the guest of honor at a funeral. Yamahama. He should be troubled.

[DustyMoment]

Guys, you should have gone with John Edwards.

I never thought that I would be saying this but, IMO, they should have gone with Joe the LIARman. Of the entire field of Dem candidates, Lieberman ends up being the most rational and centrist. Dems are going to be kicking their own butts for following each other like lemmings into the Kerry rathole.

[hershey]

Ol' Crusty warms up in the wings while the RAT hierarchy decides there's no way Botoxboy will cut it in Nov. The problem is, how to avoid months of bad publicity until then. Maybe he should take another vacation.

[Izzy Dunne]

ABC News dug up a TV interview Kerry gave

HERE is the big nugget, folks - ABC news operating the shovel instead of the water bucket!
Why is THAT happening, all of a sudden?
Is it blood-in-the-water journalism?
Or could it be something else?
Like, oh, I don't know.... Satan? Hillary?