Poll Shows Kerry Hanging Onto Slim Lead In N.H.

WMUR Channel 9 NH ^ | April 30, 2004 | WMUR

[DM1]

DURHAM, N.H. -- New Hampshire residents are closely split on who they plan to vote for in the nest presidential election.

N.H. Battleground State In Election

A new poll will be released next week by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Pollster Andy Smith said the poll will show Sen. John Kerry with a slim lead over President George W. Bush, but there are signs that could change.

Since February, the president's approval ratings have remained in the high 40s, but Kerry's numbers dropped dramatically over the last two months, from 57 to 46 percent. Smith said he's not surprised by the shift.

"The afterglow from the Democratic primary is wearing off," Smith said. "It's no longer just a Democratic message. Secondly, Bush has aired many TV ads in the state."

Both Bush and Kerry have spent millions of dollars on TV ads across the country. Smith said the numbers indicate Bush is currently stronger on economic issues.

"That's good news for the president, because pocketbook issues override most other things," Smith said.

But the numbers also indicate Bush is losing ground on foreign policy and leaving an opening for the Massachusetts Democrat.

"If Iraq continues to be an open sore, if there are no fixes soon, this could be the issue where John Kerry can make headway into," Smith said.

Smith said the election in New Hampshire could hinge on turnout election, with the two candidates separated by just a couple of points.

"I'd say we're definitely still a battleground state, it's still close, and John Kerry still leads," Smith said.

The UNH Survey Center will release the results of its presidential poll early next week.

[DM1]

This bothers me NH has Rs for all statewide offices and the Senate/Legislature is a huge majority of Rs. How can Kerry be ahead!! Anyone have any incite as to how this will play out? Also since it is so close anyone have any insight as to how good Bush's Ground Game is in NH?

[KQQL]

Bush won NH by 1%

[KQQL]

@

[cardinal4]

I dont get it. Even the die hard lefties at my work think Kerry is a cadaver and by all accounts, so do most of the media. So just who is being polled here?

[billorites]

You can't swing a stick in southern New Hampshire without hitting a MassHole.

[KQQL]

Most Dems might not like Kerry, but they HATE W ! so they will vote for Kerry.

[comebacknewt]

Kerry has run a terrible campaign so far, but he is still leading in several toss-up states. If he ever gets his act together (a big if), he could definitely win this thing.

[Leisler]

Sounds like a fun time to me.

[AmishDude]

The poll was of 300 registered farm animals.

[DM1]

"I dont get it. Even the die hard lefties at my work think Kerry is a cadaver and by all accounts, so do most of the media. So just who is being polled here?"
i know! that is why all of this close/ Kerry leading is so surprising
I really really hope that BC04 has their act together on this one and surprises us all by winning BIG

[AmishDude]

The poll is of 537 adult alien abductors.

[AmishDude]

It was a phone poll of 1003 Amish.

[KQQL]

UNH is a reliable pollster in NH.

Even FOXNEWS used them this year.

[AmishDude]

UNH is a reliable pollster in NH.

The poll was of 100 fraternity treasurers.

Duuuuuuuuuuude!!!

[claudiustg]

---Most Dems might not like Kerry, but they HATE W ! so they will vote for Kerry.---

They'll say they'll vote for Kerry. I think many will just stay home.

[KQQL]

dude I KNOW what I am talking about.

Kerry is from MA, and NH gets MA tv stations, papers etc, and is up by only 2%?

That the good news.

[KQQL]

That's why Kerry's VP nominee will be Edwards or IA GOV

[DM1]

Amish? do they even have phones?

[AmishDude]

Oh, I'm just funnin'. Polls are just so meaningless now and now they tease a poll without any details.

Truth is, if we look at the polls of Kerry's approval ratings, we see that nearly 40% are undecided. With such a polarized country and a polarized candidate, Kerry should be less than 10% undecided easily.

I bet if you ask "Who do you prefer for president?" without giving a name, I'll bet Bush wins 40% to 20% for Kerry.

[AmishDude]

Amish? do they even have phones?

No. And very slow DSL connections, too.

[AmishDude]

That's why Kerry's VP nominee will be Edwards or IA GOV

I'm willing to bet that it won't be Vilsack. Real money, too.

[DM1]

I hear that they have Horse PCs no wonder their DSL is so slow

[GiveEmDubya]

I bet if Bush were up by 2%, the headline would read:

Bush, Kerry Even in New Hampshire OR
Bush Fails To Extend Lead in New Hampshire

[AmishDude]

I hear that they have Horse PCs no wonder their DSL is so slow

Well, they do run Linux.

[DM1]

"Linux"
Ah so it must be powered by penguins
perhaps the penguins were the ones responding to the poll and that they were concerned about global warming so decided to go with Kerry

[AmishDude]

It was a poll of 1.7 likely penguins. And 12 nuns.

[mlbford2]

I have a really super liberal friend and she even thinks Kerry sux. This will be a very interesting election. If Bush can just secure his base then I think he will win. I would be considered part of his base and I am not exactly thrilled with Bush to date.

[mlbford2]

~~Most Dems might not like Kerry, but they HATE W ! so they will vote for Kerry.~~

Nobody has ever won an election because others vote against the other as major motivation. Those people won't come out to vote. People go to the voting booth because they like the candidate.

[alnick]

Most Dems might not like Kerry, but they HATE W ! so they will vote for Kerry.

Do you think that a lot of the moderate dems who don't hate Bush but find Kerry uninspiring may just sit it out?

[KQQL]

Tom Vilsack who is a governor . . . is one that would sell well through the entire Midwest," Harkin said.

"From everything I hear, he's on the very short, short, short, short, short list," Harkin said.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040430/NEWS09/404300354/1056

[LdSentinal]

Their previous poll in February had Kerry up 15% over Bush.

ARG is the best for NH.

American Research Group (11/2/02-11/3/02)

Sununu: 48%
Shaheen: 44%

Sununu: 50.8%
Shaheen: 46.4%

[Kuksool]

Kerry's Veep will be someone from the Midwest. I can see Evan Bayh, Russ Feingold, Dick Durbin, Bob Kerry, Jim Blanchard (MI Gov 1982-1990), or Ben Nelson on the short list.

[KQQL]

Kerry's VP will be 100% pro-choice.

ben Nelson is pro -life.
Bayh voted for partial birth ban

[KQQL]

Kerry VP will be:

Tom Vilsack
Dickey G
Edwards
etc

NOW/NARAL will not accept a pro-life or pro-partial birth ban or pro-parent notification Dem VP nominee.

[Jack Black]

HAH! This is the state the Free State Project chose to make "Liberty in our Lifetime" happen in. They have a long way to go with the state leaning towards awarding their electoral votes to one of the most left-leaning, statist, big government loving fabian socalist politicians of our generation!

PORCUPINE ON!

[AmishDude]

Uh, that's Harkin. A Democratic Senator. From Iowa.

Harkin has a number of problems being taken seriously with this statement

1. Harkin is an idiot.
2. Harkin is trying to show solidarity with a fellow Iowan.
3. Harkin is an ass (sorry, mods, but there's no better word).
4. Harkin's standing would increase if an Iowan were put on the ticket.
5. Harkin is not very much in tune with Iowans to begin with.

In theory, a "moderate" midwesterner (who is moderate simply by being midwestern) should offset Kerry's wacko Massachusetts liberalism. In reality, nobody knows who Vilsack is and although he would help carry Iowa (Iowans love to get national attention) and maybe Minnesota, I don't see Pennsylvanians and Ohioans being terribly interested in a pr*ck-n-hick ticket. Florida would be a lost cause as well.

I really only see four possibilities for Kerry, and they all have flaws:

1. John Edwards has charisma and would not have the Leiberman problem -- having long-held beliefs that differ with the candidates'. He is Southern, which adds to the (false) perception that he's moderate. The problem is that he has no experience and that the ticket will not poll better in most southern states, most conspicuously, NC and SC.
2. Bob Graham. He's the only Democrat that could guarantee Florida, but he's really weird and has health problems.
3. Bill Nelson. Another Floridian. Nationally, he's an unknown quantity and could be molded into whatever they need. The problem is, I don't know if he can help Kerry win Florida itself.
4. Bill Richardson. His full name would actually be Hispanic Bill Richardson. Democrats have tried the token thing before and they may try it again. Richardson would deliver NM and would have a very good shot at delivering AZ and FL. He's, of course, intimately tied into the most embarassing scandal of the last 30 years and NOBODY wants to bring up Monica again, except . . .
5. Hillary Clinton. As the victim of the Monica scandal, she's the only one who can turn it to her advantage. If she's chosen, it will be clear that Kerry has no control over his campaign. It will also indicate that he's in free-fall and has made his Faustian bargain to win. She's a terrible choice if Kerry actually wants to be President. In the #2 slot, she'll bring all of the baggage with none of the benefits.

[Interesting Times]

Hillary Clinton. As the victim of the Monica scandal, she's the only one who can turn it to her advantage. If she's chosen, it will be clear that Kerry has no control over his campaign. It will also indicate that he's in free-fall and has made his Faustian bargain to win. She's a terrible choice if Kerry actually wants to be President. In the #2 slot, she'll bring all of the baggage with none of the benefits.

How do you ask a man to be the last man between Hillary Clinton and the Presidency?

[AmishDude]

How do you ask a man to be the last man between Hillary Clinton and the Presidency?

In addition, they will go down in flames. That's actually good for Hillary, because a dying candidacy is usually blamed on the candidate (Mondale, Dukakis, Dole, Gore).

If they win, look for Kerry to never travel without Hillary.

[archy]

PORCUPINE ON!

The porcupines just may make the difference. But it's going to take a lot more than 6000 of them.

PorcuPing!

[archy]

This bothers me NH has Rs for all statewide offices and the Senate/Legislature is a huge majority of Rs. How can Kerry be ahead!! Anyone have any incite as to how this will play out? Also since it is so close anyone have any insight as to how good Bush's Ground Game is in NH?

The last governor's race gives us a good clue. Though Republicans are the majority party, Independents are a close second, and Democrats a near third. And though Republicans are generally popular with the electorate, Bush and *his* war are not.

[mvpel]

So far, only about 200-300 of us have moved to the state, since the Free State Project agreement only obligates one to move when 20,000 members are recruited.

[archy]

So far, only about 200-300 of us have moved to the state, since the Free State Project agreement only obligates one to move when 20,000 members are recruited.

Of course. But there are always those on the cutting edge blazing the paths for others to follow. Arlen Specter's recent squeaker makes it clear how important even a handful of dedicated and active voters can be, and now that the worst of this year's late Winter and early Spring weather is out of the way, that number will hopefully continue to grow even before the entire 20K sign on and begin their move.

And, of course there are some who are and have been NH residents all along, who have the experience and background as to how the game has been played in NH up to now. I believe that's about to change.

[archy]

You can't swing a stick in southern New Hampshire without hitting a MassHole.

Get more sticks. And swing them more often.

Get a couple for friends, too. Reinforcements are coming.

[archy]

Amish? do they even have phones?

Just black ones. Very plain, and without zippers.

[af_vet_1981]

Anyone have any insight as to how this will play out?

Unfortunately Bush will drop a bit more in the polls because of his Iraqi policies.

[archy]

If they win, look for Kerry to never travel without Hillary.

If they win, look for Hillary to never travel with Kerry.

Actually, a preannounced public deal between presidential candidate and his VP that the president intends to serve only one term, then to hand the candidacy to the VP in the next elaction 4 years hence would probably be a smart and popular move, if the VP were a single term senator who had held no previous political office. That'd gain the VP candidate at least some appearance of global foreign policy/foreign relations experience, especially if there was also considerable sympathy for the candidate by virtue of her being a recent widow.

[archy]

Anyone have any insight as to how this will play out?

Unfortunately Bush will drop a bit more in the polls because of his Iraqi policies.

Maybe the illegal votes he's depending on from unregistered Mexican citizens will save him.

[ride the whirlwind]

Their previous poll in February had Kerry up 15% over Bush.

The honeymoon would seem to be over for JFK.

[af_vet_1981]

Maybe the illegal votes he's depending on from unregistered Mexican citizens will save him.

I will vote for him but I no longer expect him to win. All those fine words in the speeches mean nothing if you don't deliver. "Overwhelming force" was promised but now the terrorists have won the first battle for Fallujah because Bush et. al. lost their nerve.