Posted on 05/26/2004 4:14:59 PM PDT by Dales
Early this week, after reading that Bush was 19% behind in Ohio, and statistically even in California and New Jersey...I vowed to ignore anything that had the word "Poll" in it until Halloween...except your weekly thread..
FYI..Re New Jersey.. besides your comments about early polls from NJ being "famously inaccurate" I think the state polls are skewed by the near universal loathing of Gov McGreevey. Many may know that NJ 's seashore is a huge vacatio destination, and tourism at the seashore is a multi-billion industry in the state. Inded, the governor and his wife appear in TV ads promotign the Jersey shore. Yet, this week the governor is on vacation. Where does he go?..Not Cape May, but....Canada......what does that say?
CBS is touting their latest poll that a Kerry/McCain ticket "easily beats Bush/Cheney 52 -39). They also tout a Kerry / Edwards ticket is now up 10pts! 50-40!
While CBS polls are junk - they are using these to push poll - get voters thinking "anybody but Bush" - The Bush Team needs to get 527's up and running ad after ad's -
I seen in another article today how the Kerry & Dem 527's have out-spent Bush big time already (this being the period in which Bush was suppose to have the advantage).
It still boggles my mind that the GOP didn't have 527's up, funded and ready to roll this year - You can trace 527's and the running of their ads (with a limited response - really only since March from Bush) with the President's job numbers going down.
While Iraq has something to do with his numbers - I still believe if the Bush Team would have been getting the "success message" out at the same time - many more Americans would feel better about Bush - but instead we had DEM 527's running ads - Kerry running ads (the rest of the DEM primary opponents running only Anti-Bush ads) throw in the media unbelievable biasness and you get a President with only a 42-46 approval rating and in some trouble for his reelection -
I really believe ad's telling Americans about our success - all the good we are doing would have more then off-set all the negative news - American's "get it" (more often then not) - but you have to get the information out to them - you have to be willing to engage! - Americans are lazy when it comes to seeking information (and the truth) and if they are only fed one side - well, like sheep they will start to believe it.
And the most likely to not be caught by such methods are the purple.
Finals go well?
Your substantive posts are a welcome sight.
They could well be the basic material of a good poli-sci program. ;^)
All said and done, eh. Nothing we didn't know. Bush's position isn't good, but it isn't bad either.
index
And they have the gall to call that a "landslide". A landslide would be 80% of the EVs and that is the normally accepted standard.
Rural Oregon has always been more conservative than the socialist conclaves on the Wet side of the state.
I think though, that gay marriage, unending demands for more taxes, crappy schools and the sluggish economy caused by over regulation curtesy of the envirals has taken it's toll on the usually silent middle roaders and soccer moms, starting the state to trend right.
I'm also hopeful that Lars Larson has had effect on the voting population.
Bush took many chances with his political capital, unlike the Rapist.
He is an action president. If Iraq stays just a little better than it is now I think he's a shoe-in. Kerry is not at all likable.
Thanks for answering....and, yes I agree about Lars. He is a Tillamook guy and I live in Tillamook County. He actually comes out to the Fair in August and broadcasts from there. No matter how FAMOUS he becomes, I suspect he will always have his values rooted in his beginnings.
Please tell me that you are a prophet with a 100% rate of accuracy.
Happily, the desperate media blitz against Bush was started way too early. If it is still going on in the last three months the undecided voters will break for Bush as a protest. On the other hand, if the media tones it down, then Kerry will become a factor: the undecided folks will size up the Cowboy vs the Poodle, and vote for the Cowboy.
Even if a real scandal, set back, or screw up erupted, the media has already inoculated the white house with their B.S. scandals--and further comment will just offend the fence sitters all the more.
Unless Bush makes a serious mistake, he is going to win handily.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the Electoral College is part of the US Constitution--which would require a constitutional amendment to change.
I don't see how such an amendment would ever succeed in being ratified by three fourths of the states, when a majority of those states would end up with less political power in the deal.
The President need two of Ohio, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Michigan and Florida seem to be the best bets now, but like you I think Florida and Ohio are the best bets in the long run.
We already discovered the WMD in Iraq.
Considering we have already found it, that's a pretty safe bet.
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