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Voters in Ohio's socially conservative Southwest, which includes the Republican stronghold of Cincinnati, favor Bush by the widest margin - 20 percentage points - over Kerry, 54 percent to 34 percent.

By contrast, voters in the Northeast favor Kerry the most - by 9 percentage points - at 47 percent to 38 percent. The Northeast contains the Democratic cities Cleveland and Youngstown, which have suffered more job losses than most other parts of the state.

That, in microcosm, is the problems Dems have nationally. They run strongest in areas whose economies -- and populations -- are shrinking.

On the other hand, look at the areas where economic and population growth are most explosive. Suburbs of Sunbelt cities, for example. Democrats have little hope in counties such as Cobb and Gwinnett, Georgia (Atlanta suburbs), Williamson, Tennessee (Nashville suburbs), or my own county of Union, North Carolina (Charlotte suburbs). In each case, these are the fastest growing areas of their respective states, and they vote solidly GOP at the national level and increasingly so at the local level. This does not bode well for the Democrats long-term.

You need to look at metro area numbers. Of course, the exurban counties are fast growing and heavily GOP. But the inner suburbs and neighborhoods trend Dem to offset it. It is simply a function of a growing metro area. Soon Hamilton County Ohio will join Franklin County Ohio in having no GOP margin left. The margin will be in the exurban counties for those metro areas. Folks moving around has no psephological significance in presidential elections, unless they move interstate. One problem with Ohio is that Metro Cincinnati is moving into Kentucky and Indiana. Good for the Indiana and the Kentucky GOP, bad for the Ohio GOP, long term. Similarly, exurban Memphis is dumping into Mississippi. Sane deal. And so it goes.

"That, in microcosm, is the problems Dems have nationally. They run strongest in areas whose economies -- and populations -- are shrinking. This does not bode well for the Democrats long-term."

A VERY interesting point to consider in coming years.