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Iranian Alert -- May 30, 2004 [EST]-- IRAN LIVE THREAD -- "Americans for Regime Change in Iran"
The Iranian Student Movement Up To The Minute Reports ^ | 5.30.2004 | DoctorZin

Posted on 05/29/2004 9:01:35 PM PDT by DoctorZIn

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” Most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. I began these daily threads June 10th 2003. On that date Iranians once again began taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Today in Iran, most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

DoctorZin


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alsadr; armyofmahdi; ayatollah; cleric; humanrights; iaea; insurgency; iran; iranianalert; iranquake; iraq; islamicrepublic; jayshalmahdi; journalist; kazemi; khamenei; khatami; khatemi; moqtadaalsadr; mullahs; persecution; persia; persian; politicalprisoners; protests; rafsanjani; revolutionaryguard; rumsfeld; satellitetelephones; shiite; southasia; southwestasia; studentmovement; studentprotest; terrorism; terrorists; wot
Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

1 posted on 05/29/2004 9:01:36 PM PDT by DoctorZIn
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To: Pan_Yans Wife; fat city; freedom44; Tamsey; Grampa Dave; PhiKapMom; McGavin999; Hinoki Cypress; ...
Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

2 posted on 05/29/2004 9:03:47 PM PDT by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Report says Iran trains suicide bombers




Big News Network.com Sunday 30th May, 2004

Iran has reportedly established what could be the first training center for Islamic suicide attackers, the Middle East Newsline reported Sunday.

MENL cited Iranian sources and media reports that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has established a center to train suicide attackers throughout the world. The center is called the World Islamic Martyrs and Fighters Staff Headquarters.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard's intelligence service set up the training center in support of Islamic insurgency groups linked to Tehran. The groups have included Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command.

The state-operated Iranian Student News Agency first reported the existence of the center on Wednesday. The London-based daily A-Sharq Al Awsat gave a similar account in an article by Iranian analyst Ali Nouri Zadeh.

http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=0f0764cb59b8d842


3 posted on 05/29/2004 9:06:18 PM PDT by freedom44
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To: DoctorZIn

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2004/05/29/world/iran_quake040529

Death toll rises in Iran quake
Last Updated Sat, 29 May 2004 10:53:31
TEHRAN - Rescue teams were being flown into northern Iran Saturday, a day after earthquake killed at least 45 people and injured about 400 others.

The quake, measuring 6.2 in magnitude, caused serious damage in the city of Sari – and in more than 80 villages scattered througout the Alborz mountain range.

Workers remove rocks along the Chalous road in north Iran (AP photo)

Many of the dead appeared to be drivers and their passengers caught in rockslides along the mountain road linking Tehran with the Caspian Sea city of Chalous.

The epicentre was located in the Mazandaran province town of Baladeh, 70 kilometres north of Tehran.

The tremor shattered some windows in the capital and sent startled residents running into the streets.

There have been dozens of aftershocks. Iran sits on seismic fault lines and is prone to earthquakes.

In December, an earthquake killed about 40,000 people in the southeastern Iranian city of Bam.


4 posted on 05/29/2004 9:07:25 PM PDT by freedom44
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To: DoctorZIn

5 posted on 05/29/2004 9:07:53 PM PDT by freedom44
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To: DoctorZIn

Iran May Pass Nuclear Capability to Nuclear Terrorists, Washington Times Warns

•“Given the nature of the Iranian government — a regime striving to obtain nuclear weapons that has supported terrorism from its inception a quarter-century ago — it would be folly to simply dismiss the possibility that it might decide to transfer nuclear weapons to one of its terrorist allies, writes the Washington Times in an editorial, based on an assessment of Iran's nuclear program offered by Paul Leventhal, president of the Nuclear Control Institute.

•President Mohammad Khatami acknowledged on Thursday that Iran would not achieve its goal of having its nuclear file closed at the June 14 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors, but he added that he did not consider that fact as serious.

Supreme Leader Asks New Majles to Focus on “Non-Political” Issues

•In a message to MPs read at the first session of the seventh Majles, the Supreme Leader called on the lawmakers to avoid factional disputes. He declared the disputed February 20 elections, in which the Guardians Council rejected 2,400 reformist candidates, “fair and free,” and directed the new MPs to focus on what he called “non-political issues.”

Opposition Activists Stage Sit-in Protest in Front of the UN Offices in Tehran

•A number of members of the independent opposition group the Democratic Front staged a sit-in protest in front of the UN offices in Tehran. During the past month, the wave of arrests and prosecution of activists have increased, the Democratic Front's spokesman Hasan Zarezadeh Ardeshir tells Radio Farda. The reason maybe the nearing of July 9, the anniversary of the 1998 police attack on student dorms, he adds. For that reason, we have decided to continue our sit-in protest indefinitely, he says. (Amir-Mosaddegh Katouzian)

http://www.radiofarda.com/transcripts/topstory/2004/05/20040527_1530_1122_1443_EN.asp


6 posted on 05/29/2004 9:10:44 PM PDT by freedom44
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To: freedom44

How come I'm not surprised?


7 posted on 05/29/2004 9:12:44 PM PDT by nuconvert ("America will never be intimidated by thugs and assassins." ( Azadi baraye Iran)
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To: DoctorZIn

Judiciary to Prosecute Nabavi

Despite cancellation of prosecution of numerous MPs by the Judiciary, this branch still intends to file suit Mohammad Reza Ali Hosseini, Behzad Nabavi, Mohamad Reza Khatami, Ali Akbar Mousavi Khoeini and Jafar Kambozia, reported by Etemad newspaper.

Human Rights Activists Critical of UNHRC

In a letter to the United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, a number of human right activists in Europe and Northern America lambasted the United Nations Human Rights Commission (UNHRC) for dropping Iran's case from its agenda. This letter has called on the United Nations to choose a permanent supervisor, overseeing human rights issues of concern in Iran, reported by Sharg newspaper.

Iran Democratic Front Calls for Freedom of Members

According to this reformist daily, Iran Democratic Front headed by Heshmatollah Tabarzadi posted a declaration in several websites, announcing detention of several members during the recent days. This declaration pinpointed if these members are not released, Iran Democratic Front will stage a sit-in, reported by Sharg newspaper.

http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_2436.shtml


8 posted on 05/29/2004 9:14:40 PM PDT by freedom44
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To: DoctorZIn

Israeli Threats to Raid Iran's Nuke Facilities a Political Bluff
May 29, 2004, 08:52
IRNA

An Iranian lawmaker said here on Thursday that Israel's likely air raid on Iranian nuclear facilities is a mere political show-off.


Member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission at the 6th Majlis Hassan Qashqawi told IRNA that Israel has made the threat to build up pressures on Iran and get concession on the eve of the June meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors. Certain news sources quoted the U.S. intelligence services as claiming recently that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had in a meeting with the U.S. President George W. Bush in Washington on April 24 received permission for raiding Iran's nuclear facilities.

The Israel is said to intend to launch the raid in August. Qashqawi said that although the threat is a mere "political show-off", Iran should enhance its combat readiness to thwart any threat.

http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_2433.shtml


9 posted on 05/29/2004 9:15:38 PM PDT by freedom44
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To: freedom44

That's a strange map. I haven't seen the quake put that far west on ANYone's map. In fact, in that location, it's doubtful it could have broken windows in Tehran. All the maps I've seen locate the quake either directly north or northeast of Tehran.


11 posted on 05/29/2004 9:18:05 PM PDT by nuconvert ("America will never be intimidated by thugs and assassins." ( Azadi baraye Iran)
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To: DoctorZIn

Nobel Peace Prize Winner Takes Message to Chatham

May 29, 2004
Roanoke
Jen McCaffery

CHATHAM -- Iranian activist and Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi has described the struggle for women's rights to audiences at Stanford and Harvard universities this spring and is headed for the United Nations.

In between, the internationally known champion of human rights traveled to Chatham Hall, a small boarding school for girls, for a speech Wednesday night. Students, teachers and Iranian natives living in Roanoke and other locations filled the auditorium to hear Ebadi speak.

Ebadi, a small woman who looked tired from her travels, told the crowd through a translator that she doesn't think Islam and democracy are mutually exclusive. Education, not military action, is the key to establishing democracy, she said.

"I do not believe in the theory of the clash of civilizations," Ebadi said. "That is a theory to justify war."

A former judge in the Iranian capital of Tehran, Ebadi has witnessed firsthand how her country has changed since the revolution of 1979, when conservative clerics took over the westernized country and instituted Islamic law.

Ebadi came to Chatham Hall at the suggestion of an alumna, Olga Davidson, who teaches women's studies at Brandeis University in Massachusetts. Ebadi's speech was part of a series the school has sponsored, called "Women's Voices Changing the World."

Other speakers in the series have included the first female president of Ireland, Mary Robinson, and the poet Nikki Giovanni.

Ebadi described herself as an Islamic modernist, someone who believes that religion should be subject to 21st-century interpretations, not just fundamental ones.

We "have to educate people that Islam is not a religion that would not be compatible with the modern world," Ebadi said. "Rather, it's the governments that hide their dictatorships under the cloak of Islam."

Ebadi, along with other female judges in Iran, was forced to resign after the revolution. She described the painstaking effort Iranian women have undertaken to achieve more parity under the law.

She and other Iranian women challenged custody laws, which dictated that if a couple separated, boys could live with their mother only until they turned 2 and girls until they turned 7.

Some Iranian women protested, but the government always said that was the law of Islam and that it was unchangeable, Ebadi said.

"But when all the women came together, the government had to retreat and began to accept our work, and admitted that what it had done was not Islam, Ebadi said. Now a mother has custody until the child turns 7, then it's up to the court to decide which parent the child should live with.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee wrote of Ebadi: "In an era of violence, she has consistently supported nonviolence. It is fundamental to her view that the supreme political power in a community must be built on democratic elections."

Ebadi, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year, also said Iranian women are well-educated. Sixty-three percent of university students in Iran are women, she said. And the government has recently allowed women to serve as judges again.

Ebadi condemned terrorist attacks such as those of Sept. 11, 2001, as an abuse of Islam. But she argued that the religion itself should not be blamed for the actions of fundamentalists and argued that fundamentalism is dangerous in all religions.

At a news conference just before her speech, Ebadi responded to a question about the American invasion of Iraq. She said she thought the United States invaded Iraq because leaders thought Saddam Hussein had chemical weapons.

She added that such weapons were not found and that the United States at one point was a friend to Saddam Hussein. She also said that Western countries gave Saddam Hussein bombs, which he used against Iranians and Kurds.

She said she thought the United States should get out of Iraq as soon as possible and let Iraqis determine their own rule.

Roanoke County resident Kal Pezeshcan was one of several Iranian natives who came to hear Ebadi speak. Pezeshcan, a finance director at Berglund Ford in Salem, has followed Ebadi's career. He has also remained in contact with his relatives in Iran. He said that the situation for women in Iran has gotten better over the years, largely because of the efforts of people such as Ebadi.

Though Iranian women are still required to cover themselves in public, in private, they wear makeup and jewelry, said Pezeshcan, who has visited the country many times since moving to the United States in the 1970s.

"What you see outside and what you see inside is totally different," Pezeshcan said.

http://www.roanoke.com/roatimes/news/story167568.html


12 posted on 05/29/2004 9:18:27 PM PDT by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Conservative Becomes Iranian Parliament Speaker

May 29, 2004
Reuters
ABC News

Iran's parliament has elected the country's first non-cleric assembly speaker since the 1979 revolution, following February polls in which conservatives overturned the reformist majority.

Conservative party leader Gholamali Haddadadel, whose daughter is married to a son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is viewed as a pragmatist. The parliamentary vote was broadcast live on state radio.

Iran's parliament speaker not only steers debates in the chamber but also votes in powerful committees such as the Supreme National Security Council.

The speaker sits on the Expediency Council that arbitrates between parliament and the Guardian Council, the Islamic Republic's 12-man constitutional watchdog.

Iran's new parliamentarians, who took over the reins of power with chants of "Death to America", voted overwhelmingly for Mr Haddadadel to replace Mehdi Karroubi. Of the 266 who cast votes, 196 backed Mr Haddadadel. Iran's parliament has 290 seats.

Mr Haddadadel heads the Islamic Iran Developers Party, Abadgeran, that leads a coalition at the heart of Iran's new parliament. He has said hardline parties will aim to transform Iran into an "Islamic Japan".

In his inaugural address he attacked the US occupation of Iraq and fighting in Shiite holy cities.

"This nation will not forgive those who desecrate the holy shrines," he said. His words were greeted by a chorus of "Death to America".

Many reformists dismissed February's election as a bloodless coup after the Guardian Council banned thousands of reformist candidates from standing.

Technically, Mr Haddadadel's appointment is temporary because lawmakers who voted for him have not yet approved each other's credentials. However, this approval is considered a formality.

Two traditional conservatives take over as deputy parliament speakers, replacing two of Iran's most outspoken reformists.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s1118927.htm


13 posted on 05/29/2004 9:19:08 PM PDT by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Overdoing Chalabi

May 28, 2004
The Stratfor Weekly
George Friedman

On Feb. 19, in a piece entitled "Ahmed Chalabi and His Iranian Connection," Stratfor laid out the close relationship Chalabi had with the Iranians, and the role that relationship played in the flow of intelligence to Washington prior to the war. This week, the story of Chalabi, accused of being an Iranian agent by U.S. intelligence, was all over the front pages of the newspapers. The media, having ignored Chalabi's Iranian connections for so long, went to the other extreme -- substantially overstating its significance.

The thrust of many of the stories was that the United States was manipulated by Iran -- using Chalabi as a conduit -- into invading Iraq. The implication was that the United States would have chosen a different course, except for Chalabi's disinformation campaign. We doubt that very much. First, the United States had its own reasons for invading Iraq. Second, U.S. and Iranian interests were not all that far apart in this case. Chalabi was certainly, in our opinion, working actively on behalf or Iranian interests -- as well as for himself -- but he was merely a go-between in some complex geopolitical maneuvering.

Iran wanted the United States to invade Iraq. The Iranians hated Saddam Hussein more than anyone did, and they feared him. Iran and Iraq had fought a war in the 1980s that devastated a generation of Iranians. More than Hussein, Iraq represented a historical threat to Iran going back millennia. The destruction of the Iraqi regime and army was at the heart of Iranian national interest. The collapse of the Soviet Union had for the first time in a century secured Iran's northern frontiers. The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan secured the Shiite regions of Afghanistan as a buffer. If the western frontier could be secured, Iran would achieve a level of national security it had not known in centuries.

What Iran Wanted

Iran knew it could not invade Iraq and win by itself. Another power had to do it. The failure of the United States to invade and occupy Iraq in 1991 was a tremendous disappointment to Iran. Indeed, the primary reason the United States did not invade Iraq was because it knew the destruction of the Iraqi army would leave Iran the dominant power native to the Persian Gulf. Invading Iraq would have destroyed the Iraq-Iran balance of power that was the only basis for what passed for stability in the region.

The destruction of the Iraqi regime would not only have made Iran secure, but also would have opened avenues for expansion. First, the Persian Gulf region is full of Shia, many of them oriented toward Iran for religious reasons. For example, the loading facilities for Saudi oil is in a region dominated by the Shia. Second, without the Iraqi army blocking Iran, there was no military force in the region that could stop the Iranians. They could have become the dominant power in the Persian Gulf, and only the permanent stationing of U.S. troops in the region would have counterbalanced Iran. The United States did not want that, so the conquest of Kuwait was followed by the invasion -- but not the conquest -- of Iraq. The United States kept Iraq in place to block Iran.

Iran countered this policy by carefully and systematically organizing the Shiite community of Iraq. After the United States allowed a Shiite rising to fail after Desert Storm, Iranian intelligence embarked on a massive program of covert organization of the Iraqi Shia, in preparation for the time when the Hussein regime would fall. Iranian intentions were to create a reality on the ground so the fall of Iraq would inevitably lead to the rise of a Shiite-dominated Iraq, allied with Iran.

What was not in place was the means of destroying Hussein. Obviously, the Iranians wanted the invasion and Chalabi did everything he could to make the case for invasion, not only because of his relationship with Iran, but also because of his ambitions to govern Iraq. Iran understood that an American invasion of Iraq would place a massive U.S. Army on its western frontier, but the Iranians also understood that the United States had limited ambitions in the area. If the Iranians cooperated with U.S. intelligence on al Qaeda and were not overly aggressive with their nuclear program, the two major concerns of the United States would be satisfied and the Americans would look elsewhere.

The United States would leave Iraq in the long run, and Iran would be waiting patiently to reap the rewards. In the short run, should the United States run into trouble in Iraq, it would become extremely dependent on the Iranians and their Shiite clients. If the Shiite south rose, the U.S. position would become untenable. Therefore if there was trouble -- and Iranian intelligence was pretty sure there would be -- Shiite influence would rise well before the Americans left.

Chalabi's job was to give the Americans a reason to invade, which he did with stories of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). But he had another job, which was to shield two critical pieces of information from the Americans: First, he was to shield the extent to which the Iranians had organized the Shiite south of Iraq. Second, he was to shield any information about Hussein's plans for a guerrilla campaign after the fall of Baghdad. These were the critical things -- taken together, they would create the dependency the Iranians badly wanted.

What the United States Wanted

The Americans were focused on another issue. The balance of power in the Persian Gulf was not a trivial matter to them, but it had taken on a new cast after Sept. 11. For the United States, the central problem in the Persian Gulf -- and a matter of urgent national security -- was the unwillingness of Saudi intelligence and security services to move aggressively against al Qaeda inside the kingdom. From the U.S. viewpoint, forcing Saudi Arabia to change its behavior was the overriding consideration; without that, no progress against al Qaeda was possible.

The United States did not see itself as having many levers for manipulating the situation in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis were convinced that ultimately the United States would not be able to take decisive action against the Saudis, and the Saudi government was more concerned about the internal political consequences of a crackdown on al Qaeda, than it was about the United States. It felt confident it could manage the United States as it had in the past.

The United States did not want to invade Saudi Arabia. The House of Saud was the foundation of Saudi stability, and the United States did not want it to fall. It wanted to change the Saudi strategy. Invading Saudi Arabia could have led to global economic disaster if oil shipments were disrupted. Finally, the invasion of Saudi Arabia, given its size, terrain and U.S. resources, was a difficult if not impossible task. The direct route would not work. The United States would take an indirect route.

If you wanted to frighten Saudi Arabia into changing its behavior without actually launching military operations against it, the way to do that would be: (a) demonstrate your will by staging an effective military campaign; and (b) wind up the campaign in a position to actually invade and take Saudi oil fields if they did not cooperate. The Saudis doubted U.S. will and military capacity to do them harm (since Kuwait would never permit its territory to be used to invade Saudi Arabia). The solution: an invasion of Iraq.

The United States wanted to invade Iraq as an indirect route to influence Saudi Arabia. As in any military operation, there were also subsidiary political goals. The United States wanted to get rid of Hussein's regime, not because it was complicit with al Qaeda, but because it might later become complicit. Secondly, it wanted to use Iraqi territory as a base to pressure Syria and Iran as well.

Chalabi's claims about Iraqi WMD did not instigate the invasion, because the United States did not invade Iraq to get rid of WMD. An invasion would be the most dangerous route for doing that, because the other side might actually surprise you and use the weapons on your troops. You would use air strikes and special operations troops. What Chalabi did by providing his intelligence was, however, not insignificant. The administration had two
goals: the destruction of al Qaeda and protection of the United States from WMD. By producing evidence of WMD in Iraq, Chalabi gave Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz the tool they needed. By introducing evidence of WMD, they triggered an automatic policy against Iraq having them, which closed off an argument -- not really a raging argument -- in the administration. It was important, but not earth shattering.

There was a deeper dimension to this. The strategic planners in the administration were old enough to remember when Richard Nixon began the process that broke the back of the Soviet Union -- his alliance with China against the Soviets. During World War II, the United States allied with Stalin against Hitler, preventing a potential peace agreement by Stalin. The United States had a known policy of using fault lines among potential enemies to split them apart, allying with the weaker against the stronger. If the United States allying with Stalin or Mao was not considered beyond the pale, then the Bush administration planners had another alliance in mind.

The fault line in the Islamic world is between Sunni and Shia. The Sunni are a much larger group than the Shia, but only if you include countries such as Indonesia. Within the Persian Gulf region, the two groups are highly competitive. Al Qaeda was a Sunni movement. Following U.S. grand strategy, logic held that the solution to the problem was entering into an alliance of sorts with the Shia. The key to the Shia was the major Shiite power -- Iran.

The United States worked with Iranian intelligence during the invasion of Afghanistan, when the Iranians arranged relationships with Shiite warlords like Ahmed Khan. The United States and Iran had cooperated on a number of levels for years when it concerned Iraq. Therefore there were channels open for collaboration.

The United States was interested not only in frightening Saudi Arabia, but also in increasing its dependence on the United States. The United States needed a lever strong enough to break the gridlock in Riyadh. An invasion of Iraq would achieve the goal of fear. An alliance with Iran would create the dependency that was needed. The Saudis would do anything to keep the Iranians out of their oil fields and their country. After the invasion of Iraq, only the United States could stop them. The Saudis were trapped by the United States.

What Chalabi Didn't Say

What is important to see here is how the Iranians were using the Americans, and how the Americans were using the Iranians. Chalabi was an important channel, but hardly the only one. It is almost certain that his role was well known. Chalabi was probably left in place to convince the Iranians that the United States was naive enough to believe them, or he was there simply as a token of good faith. But nothing he said triggered the invasion.

It was what he did not say that is significant. Chalabi had to know that the Iranians controlled the Iraqi Shia. It is possible that he even told the Pentagon that, since it wouldn't change fundamental strategy much. But there is one thing that Chalabi should have known that he certainly didn't tell the Americans: that Hussein was going to wage a guerrilla war. On that point, there is no question but that the Pentagon was surprised, and it mattered a lot.

Chalabi did not share intelligence that the Iranians almost certainly had because the Iranians wanted the Americans to get bogged down in a guerrilla war. That would increase U.S. dependence on the Shia and Iran, and would hasten the American departure.

Iranian intelligence had penetrated deep into Iraq. The preparations for the guerrilla war were extensive. Iran knew -- and so did Chalabi. The United States would still have invaded, but would have been much better prepared, militarily and politically. Chalabi did not tell the Pentagon what he knew and that has made a huge difference in the war.

We suspect that the Pentagon intelligence offices and the CIA both knew all about Chalabi's relation to Iranian intelligence. The argument was not over that, but over whether this disqualified his intelligence. The Pentagon had made up its mind for strategic reasons to invade Iraq. Chalabi's intelligence was of use in internal disputes in the administration, but decided nothing in terms of policy. The CIA, understanding that Chalabi was not really a source in the conventional sense but was a geopolitical pawn, did not like the game, but didn't call the Department of Defense on it until after DOD got into trouble in Iraq -- and the CIA wanted to make certain that everyone knew it wasn't their mistake.

Chalabi was a minor player in a dance between Iran and the United States that began on Sept. 11 and is still under way. The United States wants a close relationship with Iran in order to split the Islamic world and force the Saudis to collaborate with the Americans. The Iranians want to use the United States in order to become the dominant power in the Persian Gulf. Each wants the other to be its hammer. In all of this, Chalabi was only an actor in a bit part.

The one place in which he was significant was negative -- he kept the United States in the dark about the impending guerrilla war. That was where he really helped Iran, because it was the guerrilla war that locked the United States into a dependency on the Iraqi Shia that went much farther than the United States desired, and from which the United States is only now starting to extricate itself. That is a major act of duplicity, but it is a sin of omission, not commission.

In a way, the Americans and the Iranians used Chalabi for their own purposes. The Iranians used him to screen information from the Americans more than to give false information. The Americans used him to try to convince the Iranians that they had a sufficient degree of control over the situation that it was in their interests to maintain stability in the Shiite regions. At this point, it is honestly impossible to tell who got the better of whom. But this much is certain. Chalabi, for all his cleverness, is just another used up spook, trusted by no one, trusting even fewer. Geopolitics trumps conspiracy every time.

http://www.stratfor.com/corporate/index.neo?page=center&storyId=232463


14 posted on 05/29/2004 9:20:06 PM PDT by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Ebadi softens her controversial stands

SMCCDI (Information Service)
May 29, 2004

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_6408.shtml

Shirin Ebadi, the controversial Nobel Peace Prize, seems having changed her tactics following witnessing a fierce peaceful and democratic manner opposition by members of the Iranian Diaspora. From softening some of her anti-US rhetoric and accepting the existence of "some" rights abuses in Iran to scarifying individuals or hosts with controversial background who are intending to legitimize the Islamic regime, she is trying to navigate in the turmoil created by the genuine and secular opposition groups located in the US.

Ebadi who has faced a mediatic debacle especially after the protest action made, at the UCLA, by several Iranian groups, composed of Monarchists and Republicans, seems having understood that she can't continue voicing a one sided Islamic regime's foreign policy and its promotion of sham "reforms from within" without softening her anti US rhetoric and acknowledging "some" aspect of the rule of terror and oppression in Iran. It's to note that few idealist or misinformed American writers continue to promote Ebadi based on the advices and information given by some few members of the Iranian Community, residing in the US. These writers forget that most of their sources were in their younger age part of the so-called Iranian Intelligentsia, such as Mohamad Sahimi or the very ambitious and deluded Mehranguiz Kar, who helped bringing the backwarded clerics to political power in Iran. Worst, some of them, such as, Kazem Alamdari and Nayereh Tohidi, teachers at UC, were part of fanatic Marxist Guerilla groups involved in several murders.

Anyhow Ebadi has been seen, recently, trying to calm the increasing anger of the Iranian community which is echoed for millions of enchained Iranians via the Los Angles and WDC based TV and Radio networks. Her anti US rhetoric has soften astonishingly and the latter has started to criticize the Islamic regime on several topics while refusing to attend controversial gatherings, such as the one, organized by IAPAC.

Of course, fidel to her past controversial and revolutionary background with Islamic roots, she still claim that the status of Iranian women has improved and that more than 63% of Iranian students are female. She omits to state that the Iranian women are in general much more advanced, compare to herself, in many aspects of their thoughts and aspirations from the first day of the 1979 Islamic revolution. The latter doesn't find necessary to mention that many studies, such as some branches of Medical schools or scientific studies, are banned for the current 63% female students in contrary to the secular education which existed before the Islamic revolution. Most of the current female students are condemned to follow studies, such as, in Textile or Wowing Rug which their industries are at the edge of collapse in Iran due to the ill policies of the ruling clerics and their Islamist technocrat advisors, such as, Ebadi's own brother who's an influential advisor of the current rgime.

Ebadi who made Human Rights Studies at Tehran University in 1973, is claiming that "the "limit" of Human Rights is traced by "Democracy". It's of course not necessary to remind that based on her idea, the Taliban regime was not in a total transgression of Human Rights principles nor as it will any type of so-called reformed Islamic regime in Iran which is Ebadi's main goal.


15 posted on 05/29/2004 9:21:09 PM PDT by freedom44
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To: DoctorZIn

Empress Farah Pahlavi is one of the guests who have been invited to the marriage celebration of Prince Fredrik of Denmark with Mary Donaldson.

Just these 2 months they've gotten invitations from Jordan, Spain, Denmark, and Saudi Arabia. Including Egypt refusing to take the lion and sword flag down.

Back in the 80's the pro-West Iranian Royals hardly got invitations to any formal events.


16 posted on 05/29/2004 9:23:36 PM PDT by freedom44
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To: DoctorZIn

Interesting Development... DoctorZin

Navy to Deploy Carrier Groups to Test Rapid Readiness (Is this odd or what?)

WorldNow
Posted on 05/29/2004 1:09:56 PM PDT by BabaOreally

Navy to Deploy Carrier Groups to Test Rapid Readiness

Click here to view this video report.

A major exercise soon to be underway will have a large part of the Navy fleet deploying out of Norfolk.

WAVY News 10 has learned the Navy is sending seven carrier strike groups out to sea.

The exercise is designed to test the Navy's new rapid deployment readiness.

Several Norfolk-based carrier strike groups will participate. The USS George Washington is already deployed. Two others, the USS Enterprise and USS Harry S Truman will leave soon.

Other carriers involved in the exercise include the USS John F. Kennedy, the USS John S. Stennis, and the USS Ronald Reagan - which left Norfolk on Thursday.

While the Navy won't say where the seven carrier groups are going, the carriers not already deployed are expected to be gone for only one to two months.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1144475/posts


17 posted on 05/29/2004 9:24:38 PM PDT by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Ebadi softens her controversial stands

SMCCDI (Information Service)
May 29, 2004

Shirin Ebadi, the controversial Nobel Peace Prize, seems having changed her tactics following witnessing a fierce peaceful and democratic manner opposition by members of the Iranian Diaspora. From softening some of her anti-US rhetoric and accepting the existence of "some" rights abuses in Iran to scarifying individuals or hosts with controversial background who are intending to legitimize the Islamic regime, she is trying to navigate in the turmoil created by the genuine and secular opposition groups located in the US.

Ebadi who has faced a mediatic debacle especially after the protest action made, at the UCLA, by several Iranian groups, composed of Monarchists and Republicans, seems having understood that she can't continue voicing a one sided Islamic regime's foreign policy and its promotion of sham "reforms from within" without softening her anti US rhetoric and acknowledging "some" aspect of the rule of terror and oppression in Iran. It's to note that few idealist or misinformed American writers continue to promote Ebadi based on the advices and information given by some few members of the Iranian Community, residing in the US. These writers forget that most of their sources were in their younger age part of the so-called Iranian Intelligentsia, such as Mohamad Sahimi or the very ambitious and deluded Mehranguiz Kar, who helped bringing the backwarded clerics to political power in Iran. Worst, some of them, such as, Kazem Alamdari and Nayereh Tohidi, teachers at UC, were part of fanatic Marxist Guerilla groups involved in several murders.

Anyhow Ebadi has been seen, recently, trying to calm the increasing anger of the Iranian community which is echoed for millions of enchained Iranians via the Los Angles and WDC based TV and Radio networks. Her anti US rhetoric has soften astonishingly and the latter has started to criticize the Islamic regime on several topics while refusing to attend controversial gatherings, such as the one, organized by IAPAC.

Of course, fidel to her past controversial and revolutionary background with Islamic roots, she still claim that the status of Iranian women has improved and that more than 63% of Iranian students are female. She omits to state that the Iranian women are in general much more advanced, compare to herself, in many aspects of their thoughts and aspirations from the first day of the 1979 Islamic revolution. The latter doesn't find necessary to mention that many studies, such as some branches of Medical schools or scientific studies, are banned for the current 63% female students in contrary to the secular education which existed before the Islamic revolution. Most of the current female students are condemned to follow studies, such as, in Textile or Wowing Rug which their industries are at the edge of collapse in Iran due to the ill policies of the ruling clerics and their Islamist technocrat advisors, such as, Ebadi's own brother who's an influential advisor of the current rgime.

Ebadi who made Human Rights Studies at Tehran University in 1973, is claiming that "the "limit" of Human Rights is traced by "Democracy". It's of course not necessary to remind that based on her idea, the Taliban regime was not in a total transgression of Human Rights principles nor as it will any type of so-called reformed Islamic regime in Iran which is Ebadi's main goal.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_6408.shtml


19 posted on 05/29/2004 9:44:06 PM PDT by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: freedom44

Something happening behind the scenes?


20 posted on 05/29/2004 9:45:26 PM PDT by F14 Pilot (John ''Fedayeen" sKerry - the Mullahs' regime candidate)
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To: freedom44

This map is wrong!


21 posted on 05/29/2004 9:46:39 PM PDT by F14 Pilot (John ''Fedayeen" sKerry - the Mullahs' regime candidate)
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To: DoctorZIn

Iran Governor Killed in Helicopter Crash

AP - World News (via Yahoo)
May 29, 2004

CHALOUS - A helicopter taking a governor and his entourage from the site of a deadly earthquake crashed in the mountains of northern Iran on Saturday, killing everyone on board, official Tehran television reported.

The crash came as army helicopters ferried rescue teams to mountain villages in northern and central Iran cut off by landslides caused by Friday's quake, in which at least 35 people were killed and 250 were injured.

Those killed in the helicopter crash included Masoud Emami, the governor of Qazvin province, three of his aides and a journalist working for Iran's state-run television, the report said. It did not say how many others were aboard.

State-run TV reported there were 20 aftershocks following Friday's quake, including a 4.6-magnitude temblor Saturday morning in the southeastern city of Bam, where a 6.6-magnitude quake in December killed 26,000 people. There were no casualties there Saturday, the report said.

A weak tremor that lasted about five seconds was felt around midday Saturday in the Iranian capital, Tehran, which has a population of about 10 million. Friday's quake was so powerful it cracked or shattered windows in the capital's north, more than 60 miles from the hardest-hit villages.

Out of fear of a greater quake, many people in Tehran slept outdoors, in yards, parks or in the streets. The government denied widespread speculation about an impending quake.

"Reports of an earthquake in Tehran in the next few hours are false, and circulated by irresponsible people," Ali Jahanbakhshi, an official at Tehran's Emergency Headquarters, told the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

Bijan Dastari, a senior Red Crescent Society official, said 35 people died and 250 were injured in the Friday afternoon earthquake, measured at magnitude 6.2 by the U.S. Geological Survey, that struck northern and central Iran.

Two army helicopters ferried rescue teams into some of the more remote villages early Saturday, IRNA reported. The quake severed road links to about a dozen villages, it said.

The road from Tehran to Chalous was riddled with large cracks, rocks and giant boulders, as well as cars that either were completely smashed or badly damaged by boulders. Crushed cars were being cleared by trailer trucks.

One driver barely squeezed into his car, whose rear side and passenger compartment were crushed, and slowly drove it away.

Fattollah Najafi, the 60-year-old owner of a roadside restaurant, said he felt the tremor, then saw boulders rolling down the mountain.

"All of a sudden, I saw the restaurant was shaking all over the place," Najafi said. "There were cars crashing into the mountain or into each other, and some were crushed by the boulders.

"One car that was hit by a boulder exploded into flames, and as far as I know everyone in it was killed."

The Red Crescent dispatched rescue teams with body-detecting dogs as well as medical teams, tents and lanterns to the stricken areas, IRNA reported. It quoted officials as saying about 50 villages were shaken by Friday's quake.

The villages hit hardest were near Alamout, about 80 miles west of Tehran, Interior Ministry spokesman Jahanbakhah Khanjani told The Associated Press on Friday.

Sixteen people were buried in their cars and more than 70 others were injured by landslides and falling boulders on the mountainous Tehran-Chalous road, state-run television reported. Chalous is 55 miles north of Tehran.

Tehran University's seismological center said the quake had a 5.5 magnitude with an epicenter in the village of Baladeh, 45 miles northeast of Tehran, near the Caspian Sea.

The USGS (news - web sites) bases its magnitude calculations by looking at measurements from a number of seismographs around the world. This figure can sometimes differ from a measurement recorded closer to the epicenter.

Alamout, the area hardest hit by the quake, is a remote region with a sinister history. It was home to an 11th-century order founded by Hassan Sabbah, who was known in Europe as the old Man of the Mountain.

His followers, known for their blind obedience and successful assassinations of many notables of the period, spread terror throughout Persia and Syria and were known to target Christian crusaders.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_6391.shtml


22 posted on 05/29/2004 9:46:51 PM PDT by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: Eurotwit; nuconvert; McGavin999; happygrl; SusanTK; Cindy; sionnsar; freedom44; AdmSmith; Valin; ...

Iran's Judiciary: Aghajari close to having death sentence quashed

Iran Payvand News
May 30th, 2004

Tehran, IRNA -- Jailed dissident Hashem Aghajari is close to having his death sentence on apostasy charges quashed, a deputy judiciary chief told IRNA reporters here Saturday.
"Preliminary steps have been taken to revoke the (death) sentence," Deputy Judiciary Chief Abdorreza Izadpanah said.

The cleric said the judiciary had taken its cue from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's decree, which showed charges brought against Aghajari do not make a case for blasphemy.

"Given Judiciary Chief (Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi)'s stress and advice on the need for speedy handling of the case, we hope the final verdict on the case will be announced in the coming days," Izadpanah said IRNA's head office here.

This comes in the wake of a provisional court's ruling in western Hamedan province which recently reaffirmed the death sentence on Aghajari.

It first tried and sentenced Aghajari to death for blasphemy in 2002.

The ruling sparked days of student protests in Tehran and several other cities, prompting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to order a review in November 2002.

The sentence is related to the statements made by Aghajari in Hamedan, in which he decried some of the Shi'ite Muslim practices and demanded they be rectified.

In addition to the death penalty, the court sentenced him to 74 lashes, a 10-year ban from teaching, and eight years of internal banishment.

Aghajari is a history professor at Tehran Teachers Training University and lost a leg in the Iraqi-imposed war of 1980-88.

His defense lawyer, Saleh Nikbakht, had said recently that he was confident the the Supreme Court would absolve his client and revoke the death sentence imposed by the lower court.

Aghajari has consistently refused to appeal the death sentence.

http://www.payvand.com/news/04/may/1196.html


23 posted on 05/29/2004 10:23:25 PM PDT by F14 Pilot (John ''Fedayeen" sKerry - the Mullahs' regime candidate)
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To: F14 Pilot

I think so. There's alot going on that we don't know about.


24 posted on 05/29/2004 10:44:56 PM PDT by freedom44
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To: freedom44; nuconvert

25 posted on 05/30/2004 3:45:58 AM PDT by F14 Pilot (John ''Fedayeen" sKerry - the Mullahs' regime candidate)
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To: freedom44; nuconvert; Pan_Yans Wife; kabar; dixiechick2000; SusanTK; McGavin999; sionnsar

Iran complains to Jordan over wedding invite for ousted royals

IranMania News
30th May, 04

TEHRAN, May 30 (AFP) - Iran has lodged an official complaint with Jordan after Farah Diba, the widow of the ousted Iranian shah, was invited to the wedding of Crown Prince Hamza bin Hussein to a distant cousin, Princess Noor,the Iranian foreign ministry said.

"The foreign ministry has summoned the Jordanian charge d'affaires to protest over this invitation. It was an injustifiable gesture. There were people invited who have no status in their own country," foreign ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters.

He also warned that the invitation of Farah Diba, the widow of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, "will have repercussion on the relations between our two countries."

The widow of the shah, ousted by Iran's Islamic revolution in 1979, was among 2,500 guests -- who also included a number of European royals -- at a garden party in Amman Thursday.

Last Monday, Iran complained to Spain after both Farah Diba and her son were invited to the marriage of Crown Prince Felipe de Bourbon and former television news presenter Letizia Ortiz.

http://www.iranmania.com/news/300504e.asp


26 posted on 05/30/2004 5:56:56 AM PDT by F14 Pilot (John ''Fedayeen" sKerry - the Mullahs' regime candidate)
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To: DoctorZIn

Reza Pahlavi's Antidote

May 30, 2004
Iran va Jahan
Reza Bayegan

I said goodbye to an Iranian relative who had come to visit me from Italy at Paris's Bercy station before attending Reza Pahlavi's panel discussion at Sciences-Po, one of France’s elite academic institutions. As he was embarking his train he held my hand and said: "let me know what happens at the meeting."

As the situation in Iran becomes more devastating each day, the campaign trail of Reza Pahlavi who is fighting to bring an end to dictatorship in his homeland is followed by Iranians with an increasing sense of urgency. On 25 May 2004, at this French centre of learning and enlightenment, his message consisted in highlighting the great potential of his nation for being a beacon of modernity and stability in the troubled region of the Middle East.

Referring to the 'obscurantism' as the congenital and incurable disease of the Islamic revolution he elucidated its pernicious effect on Iran's material and spiritual resources:

"Turning into instruments of religious fascism, the Islamic Republic has sapped all the moral and spiritual bases of an ancient country with several millennia of civilization and history. The harmful effect of this type of fascism is dualistic - it is both temporal and spiritual."

All those Iranians who are able to look at their homeland and recognize the weakened body of their nation suffering a fresh blow everyday, undergoing another new humiliation and pain by the hour, can identify with the message of the king and fathom the depth of his anguish.

Keeping the country up to its neck in unceasing calamity, or as Reza Pahlavi calls it a "permanent state of crisis" has from the beginning of the revolution been the survival tactic of the dictators in Tehran. The prime objective of such a style of governance is to create a state of moral fatigue where the political esteem of the population is constantly assaulted and its spirit of resistance debilitated.

The main thrust of Reza Pahlavi’s campaign for the past two decades can be characterized as an antidote to this kind of moral and political infection. By constantly encouraging Iranians that they should not settle for any destiny except the best they deserve, he has kept alive a national dream: A national dream of human excellence, dignity, liberty and democracy that is bound to prove itself more powerful than any nightmare concocted by the tyrants of the Islamic Republic.

There is no doubt that the force of international pressure can play a major role in helping Iranians to fulfil their political aspirations. World solidarity in the past has played a major role in overthrowing tyrannies such as the Apartheid regime in South Africa. In Sciences-Po, the Iranian king reiterated what he has been saying all along: The removal of the Islamic Republic is a sine qua non to global security and a requisite step for establishing a democratic government in Iran.

Reza Pahlavi attends meetings, conferences and interviews around the clock. While owing to his stature, position and impressive character, all eyes are turned upon him, his own gaze remains focused on the plight of his people and their release from the claws of religious tyranny. He is a man moving from standing ovation to standing ovation without being distracted from the long term objectives he has devoted his life to accomplish. His real appeal comes from his modesty, sincerity and above all lack of any ambition for political power for himself.

http://iranvajahan.net/cgi-bin/news.pl?l=en&y=2004&m=05&d=30&a=5


27 posted on 05/30/2004 11:26:33 AM PDT by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Nice write-up


28 posted on 05/30/2004 3:20:06 PM PDT by nuconvert ("America will never be intimidated by thugs and assassins." ( Azadi baraye Iran)
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To: DoctorZIn
This thread is now closed.

Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

29 posted on 05/30/2004 9:15:00 PM PDT by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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