Electoral College Breakdown 2004, June 2nd Update

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Travels

The Presidential campaign has settled down a bit into the post-primary doldrums where certain equilibrium takes hold and rapid swings in public opinion do not happen without the impact of a major news event. Certainly, with the economy recovering, with the nation on constant pins and needles over possible terrorist attacks, and especially with our fighting forces in harm's way in Iraq, such news never seems to be out of the question. Life in 2004 has a feeling of waiting for the other shoe to drop-- a feeling that has worked to keep consumer sentiment low, and to keep the percentage of those who say that things are heading in the right direction muted as well.

But while each camp is waiting to see how events unfold, they are all laying the groundwork for the later stages of the race. Looking at where the campaigns have focused their attention can be instructive.

Since wrapping up the nomination, John Kerry has visited 27 states, both fundraising and campaigning. While there is a good amount of breadth to his interstate travel, there has also been saturation. The state that he has focused on more than any other has been Pennsylvania. Gore carried Pennsylvania by 5 points last time, but the state had been polling well for the President early on. Six different visits later, after March and most of April had melted away, Kerry had closed the gap and possibly even gained the upper hand.

Another state which has been a primary focus of Senator Kerry has been Florida, which he has visited more than any other state except for Pennsylvania, spending five days working the Sunshine state for campaign contributions and making stump speeches. Clearly, Kerry believes that if he can hold Pennsylvania and take Florida, he will be tough to beat. He is right.

Other states which have garnered his attention during the first few months as the de-facto-if-not-yet-official nominee include Massachusetts, Illinois, and California -- three states one must assume were chosen for fundraising purposes-- as well as Oregon and Ohio.

The President has also been around, having visited 24 different states during the same timeframe. Where Senator Kerry has made single or half-day visits to most of those states he has visited (and has made many visits to a small handful of states listed above), the President has spread things out a bit more, with only three states scoring three visits (and none nabbing four) since March 10. Like Kerry, Pennsylvania has been a primary focus. Ohio and Wisconsin are the other two states that have received the most Presidential attention.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the President's itinerary so far this campaign season is that he has not visited many of the states getting the most attention from Senator Kerry. Since March, Bush has not spent time in Florida. Considering how confident his campaign had been about Florida in 2000, and considering how badly the Gore campaign outworked them in the state, and considering just how bloody close it was there in 2000, one has to wonder why they have chosen to not counter the early efforts of Kerry in the state. Granted, the polling information so far has not shown that Kerry has gained much for all his attention down there, but this is not the time for such swings but rather for laying the groundwork for what comes later.

Bush has also not spent time in top Kerry states of Illinois, California, and Oregon. As a matter of fact, with the exception of two stops to Colorado, a few trips home to Crawford, Texas, and a brief Arizona stop, the President has spent no time on states west of those right on the Mississippi river. By comparison, Kerry has visited Idaho, Oregon, Washington, California, New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas. The President has also nosed into New England just barely, stopping by once in New Hampshire. Kerry has tilled the home soil four times, as well as visiting Rhode Island and New Hampshire.

Where Bush so far has not paid much attention to Kerry's Florida effort, Kerry has barely countered Bush's several visits to Wisconsin, making a single evening appearance in the Badger state. Kerry also has not countered the two visits to Iowa that Bush has made, obviously feeling that he has some reserves there after spending so much time in preparation of the Caucuses. And while his campaign has talked about challenging for Colorado, Kerry has yet to go there, even when making a swing to the southwest and west.

The President does have an advantage in that his running mate is already known and also making campaign and fundraising stops. Cheney has made a western swing and he has also hit much of New England. He has made multiple visits to several key states: Ohio, Missouri, and Arkansas. Arkansas and Missouri have seen twice as much of Bush/Cheney then they have seen of Kerry.

Perhaps the strangest state in all of the early jockeying has been Michigan. This is a state that has been polling evenly, has a large electoral bounty for the winner, and was not decided by all that large of a margin in 2000. Despite that, it has only had a single visit from each of Kerry and Bush. This is quite different from all the attention that has been lavished on Ohio and Pennsylvania by both sides. And both campaigns are acting as if they buy into the conventional wisdom about New Jersey (rather than my opinion that the state is vulnerable); Kerry has visited once, while only Cheney has stopped by on the other side, and for just a single appearance at that.

This Week's Polling Updates Overview

The ECB calculated national popular vote stands at Bush 45.1%, Kerry 43.7%. In the Electoral College Breakdown, Bush leads 221 to 168 although the gap closes considerably when the tossup states are factored in, 247-235. When my opinions are factored out completely and just the polls are used (ECB Classic), Kerry has the lead 211-170 (307-231 with tossups) but that is almost entirely due to the questionable Zogby Interactive polls. With them factored out, the ECB Classic would have Bush up 196-178 (297-235 with tossups).

State	2000 Result	Media Battleground	Current Status
Florida	Bush +0.01	Yes	Tossup
New Mexico	Gore +0.06	Yes	Tossup
Wisconsin	Gore +0.2	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Iowa	Gore +0.3	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Oregon	Gore +0.4	Yes	Kerry, Slight
New Hampshire	Bush +1	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Minnesota	Gore +2	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Ohio	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Slight
Nevada	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Lean
Pennsylvania	Gore +4	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Michigan	Gore +5	Yes	Tossup
Arkansas	Bush +5	Yes	Bush, Slight
Arizona	Bush +6	Yes	Bush, Lean
West Virginia	Bush +6	Yes	Bush, Lean
New Jersey	Gore +16	No	Kerry, Slight

	F		Arizona
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided. Arizona has 6 of 8 of its Representatives and both of its Senators from the GOP. The GOP also controls both chambers of the state legislature. The top of the executive branch is run by Democrats, with Janet Napolitano being a first term Governor and Terry Goddard being the Attorney General. Most other top executive offices are held by Republicans. Republicans have a 41% to 35% lead in voter registration.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
7/18/03	Behavior Research Center	Link	701 Adults	4.3%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Opponent	41%	Bush +14
1/11/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	641 Adults	3.9%	Bush	50%	Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)	38%	Bush +12
2/19/04	SurveyUSA	Link	RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%	Bush +8
2/22/04	Arizona State University	Link	430 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Dem +2
3/18/04	Survey USA	Link	634 LV	4.0%	Bush	51%	Kerry	42%	Bush +9
4/26/04	Arizona State University	Link	410 RV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	38%	Bush +3
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	37%	Bush +8
5/23/04	Arizona State University	Link	377 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	38%	Bush +5

Punditry: Two straight polls in Arizona have Bush up by a span of the margin of error. The new poll is a small improvement for Bush over the last one by the same polling company. Those facts coupled with how Arizona went in 2000 means that Arizona Leans Toward Bush.

	Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 51%
Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/?/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	RV	?%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Push
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
5/7/04	Susquehanna Polling (R)	Link	650 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
5/14/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.4%	Bush	42.6%	Kerry	50.8%	Kerry +8.2
5/25/04	Quinnipiac	Link	701 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3

Punditry: The new poll added here is the Susquehanna one-- a partisan poll taken on behalf of the lobbying group Triad Strategies. It provided the yang to Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal's early May ying. Other than both partisan polls confirming that the race is close, there is not much insight to be gleaned from either. Pennsylvania remains a Slight Advantage for Kerry.

	Kentucky
Electoral Votes: 8
2000 Result
Bush 57%
Gore 41%

Background: Johnson, Carter (first time) and Clinton (twice) carried the Bluegrass state. Nixon (twice), Reagan (twice) and both Bushes won here. It is very likely that Clinton would not have carried Kentucky either time if not for Perot. In 1992 Clinton won by three points with Perot capturing 13%, and in 1996 Clinton won by 1% with Perot capturing 9%.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
10/23/03	Associated Press	Link	LV	4%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +18
2/4/04	Courier Journal	NA	LV	4%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +17
2/16/04	Survey USA	Link	LV	3.8%	Bush	57%	Kerry	41%	Bush +16
5/11/04	Bluegrass Poll	Link	811 Adults	3.4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	40%	Bush +12
5/20/04	Garin Hart Yang (D)	Link	RV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	43%	Bush +6

Punditry: This is the same poll that had Sen. Bunning up by 9 points. The Democrats were optimistic going into this campaign season that Bunning might be vulnerable, so to see their candidate trailing him by more than Kerry is trailing Bush has to be disappointing. This poll shows the Presidential race a bit tighter, but as a partisan poll take it with a huge grain of salt. Strong Advantage for Bush.

	Louisiana
Electoral Votes: 9
2000 Result
Bush 53%
Gore 45%

Background: Louisiana votes for southerners in Presidential elections. George Wallace won here. Carter beat Ford. Clinton beat Dole. And Clinton beat Bush (with big help from Perot). All others since JFK were won by Republicans.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
11/9/03	JPI Polling	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	34%	Bush +16
3/29/04	DeVille and Associates and Southern Media & Opinion Research	Link	700 RV	3.8%	Bush	52%	Kerry	38%	Bush +14
5/25/04	Multi-Quest	Link	400 RV	6%	Bush	48%	Kerry	29%	Bush +19

Punditry: The Multi-Quest poll is not quite a partisan poll, but it is also not quite an independent poll either. Multi-Quest is a polling firm that specializes in market research, especially for the banking industry, and they are not affiliated with the Republican party. However, they have been hired to do polling during this campaign by Senate candidate John Vitter (R), so to that extent their results should be taken with that in mind. Either way, these results are right in line with previous polls, and explains a bit while after initially countering Kerry's ad buy in the state, the Bush campaign has decided to stop spending money on Bayou state advertising. Strong Advantage for Bush.

	Iowa
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Gore 48%
Bush 46%

Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.

Iowa rated a slight advantage to Bush in the first ECB of 2000. This time, it rates a slight advantage to the Democrats. Other positions in Iowa are mixed. The Republicans hold 4 of the 5 House seats, and the Senate seats are split. The Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but the Democrats hold all major executive offices except for Auditor. Republicans hold a 32% to 29% advantage in registration.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/12/03	Des Moines Register	Link	803 Adults	3.5%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Even
10/30/03	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/5/04	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +8
2/11/04	Selzer & Co.	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50.1%	Kerry	44.9%	Bush +5.2
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
5/27/04	SurveyUSA	Link	794 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3

Punditry: What an interesting set of poll results from SurveyUSA. The Bush/Kerry numbers validate the Research2000 numbers (and contradict Zogby's), but in addition to the straight-up horserace question, they also asked about a hypothetical Bush/Cheney vs. Kerry/Vilsack race. When the Iowa governor is on the ticket, the 3 point Kerry lead becomes a 3 point Bush lead. Talk about unexpected! One reason I love SurveyUSA is that they resist the urge to read more into their numbers than would be correct; "Data do not support conclusion that 'Vilsack hurts Kerry'. However, there is no evidence that Vilsack helps Kerry". Absolutely correct, and still surprising.

	Montana
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Result
Bush 58%
Gore 33%

Background: Big Sky will occasionally vote for a Democrat, but generally not for any non-Montana Democrats. For example, the Governor's race may end up being very competitive while the Presidential race is not. Since the Goldwater debacle, only Bill Clinton has won here, during his first campaign, and then only with Ross Perot taking over a quarter of the votes.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/16/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	4%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	27%	Bush +25
5/26/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	33%	Bush +20

Punditry: Bush leads in every single county in Montana. Not all the news is good for the Republicans with this poll however, as it looks as if the Democrats are well positioned to pick up a Governor's seat-- Schweitzer leads all possible opponents by amounts ranging from 10% to 20%. But can the Democrats make inroads to capture the Presidential electoral votes? No way. Safe for Bush.

	F		Illinois
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 55%
Bush 42%

Background: Before Clinton broke through, Republicans had won six straight Presidential contests in Illinois. But Clinton's win against Bush was not because of Perot; he would have carried it without him in the race. And Gore flat out spanked Bush here.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
6/9/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +2
10/20/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	700 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +11
1/9/04	Chicago Tribune	Link	RV	3.8%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +8
3/3/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	36%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +18
3/3/04	Rasmussen	Link	1500 LV	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +15
3/13/04	Copley News Service/Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +8
5/12/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/24/04	Market Shares Corp.	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16

Punditry: Although above I have some earlier polls listed as Chicago Tribune, I believe those were also done by Market Shares, so this poll can be compared directly with them. Their earlier polls had Bush trailing badly in Illinois, but this result would be an improvement even on those numbers. Rasmussen's May 12th numbers are looking to me to be a bit of an abberation. Strong for Kerry.

By an 18% margin, Illinois voters favor a complete and immediate cut and run strategy for Iraq. That is going to cause Kerry some problems (especially if Nader is on the ballot) since he has been saying he too would not bail out, but it also suggests how hard a time Jack Ryan will have in holding the Senate seat for the Republicans against the very "progressive" Barack Obama.

	F		Minnesota
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 48%
Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +2
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
4/2/04	Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll	Link	562 LV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +12
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	51.3%	Kerry +9.3
5/26/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3

Punditry: Now we are up to four polls in various states since the Zogby Interactive polls came out, and every single one has contradicted the Zogby result by more than the margin of error.

This is essentially no different than the previous Mason-Dixon poll for the land of 10,000 lakes. I will go out on a limb here and make a prediction: the next Star-Tribune poll will be much more like the last Star-Tribune poll than it is to being like this one. The nine point difference is about what I have come to expect from their polling.

Twin Cities pollster Bill Morris said "it's a virtual tie. This state is really in play." I agree. But Mason-Dixon's Brad Coker (who conducted this survey) said it is fair to characterize the result as a "slight lead" for Kerry. That's how I am designating the race- Slight Advantage for Kerry. I'll quibble with Mr. Coker though. It would be more accurate to say that the race is a virtual tie with there being a slightly higher than even chance that Kerry has a very small lead. More accurate, but more wordy.

As for the rest of the poll, it was a pretty boring one. You had your typical gender gap. You had your typical breakdown of Kerry leading in the cities and Bush leading in the suburbs and rural areas. The one thing that is a bit different than most polls I have seen this cycle is that the undecideds are high-- 15% are not saying either Bush or Kerry, and 1/5th of each candidate's supporters say they could change their mind. The only other state that is showing a similar dynamic is New Jersey.

	Alabama
Electoral Votes: 9
2000 Result
Bush 56%
Gore 42%

Background: Alabama has been a reliable GOP state, only straying twice since 1960; both times it went for a southerner. Jimmy Carter carried the state, as did George Wallace.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/27/03	USA Polling Group	Link	RV	5%	Bush	60%	Unnamed Democrat	30	Bush +30
3/18/04	USA Polling Group	Link	405 adults	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	27%	Bush +32
5/3/04	SurveyUSA	Link	743 LV	3.7%	Bush	55%	Kerry	36%	Bush +19
5/13/04	USA Polling Group	Link	400 Adults	5%	Bush	55%	Kerry	33%	Bush +22
5/20/04	Capital Survey Research	Link	785 RV	4%	Bush	56%	Kerry	37%	Bush +19

Punditry: Of course, it would be 19 points. Had it stayed 20+ points I would have less work to do on the ECB Classic (with and without Zog versions). But no. It had to be 19.

The thing that really has me puzzled here is the number of public polls that have been conducted this month in Alabama. It seems unusual to me that a state that no one is anticipating is going to be competitive would get so much attention. I am looking to see if there is something I am missing, but until I find something it remains Safe for Bush.

	Ohio
Electoral Votes: 20
2000 Result
Bush 50%
Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +23
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
3/24/04	Ohio Poll	Link	632 RV	3.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
4/2/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,344 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/13/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.1%	Bush	44.8%	Kerry	49.4%	Kerry +4.6
5/25/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	1500 RV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2

Punditry: Rasmussen's poll, which was conducted over the entire month of May, validates the Mason-Dixon poll which was taken towards the end of May. The race could be tied, or Bush could have a small lead, or another possible reading of this data is that earlier in the month Kerry had an advantage and later in the month Bush did to where overall Bush came out ahead by an amount inside the margin of error. Which read is correct, only time will tell. However, there is nothing here to change the designation away from where it stands, which is Slight Advantage for Bush.

Kerry E		F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	MD (10) K48-B43 3/24/04	NH (4) K49-B45 4/26/04	NM (5) B46-K45 4/1/04	AR (6) B45-K45 5/2/04	VA (13) B48-WC33 12/3/03	SC (8) B52-UD36 7/28/03	AK (3)
HI (4)	ME (4) K51-B38 3/4/04	WA (11) K46-B41 4/5/04	WI (10) K50-B42 B50-K38 4/28/04	OR (7) K50-B47 B44-K39 5/10/04	OH (20) B46-K44 5/31/04	GA (15) B47-UD43 2/4/04	MS (6) B49-UD29 12/22/03	ND (3)
RI (4) K53-B31 2/7/04	NY (31) K51-B32 4/22/04	CA (55) K46-B45 5/6/04	NJ (15) K46-B43 5/16/04	MI (17) B44-K40 5/13/04	-	NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04	KS (6) B57-K39 3/4/04	NE (5)
MA (12) K54-B32 4/5/04	CT (7) K51-B33 4/27/04	-	IA (7) K48-B45 5/27/04	FL (27) B47-K46 5/19/04	-	TN (11) B52-K41 3/22/04	OK (7) B53-K34 5/20/04	WY (3)
-	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	-	PA (21) K44-B41 5/25/04	-	-	MO (11) B49-K42 3/23/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	ID (4) B55-K23 3/17/04
-	IL (21) K54-B38 5/24/04	-	MN (10) K44-B41 5/26/04	-	-	CO (9) B49-K44 4/14/04	KY (8) B49-K43 5/20/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	WV (5) B49-K45 4/29/04	LA (9) B49-K28 5/25/04	AL (9) B55-K33 5/13/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	NC (15) B47-K41 5/14/04	-	TX (34) B58-K29 5/15/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	AZ (10) B43-K38 5/23/04	-	IN (11) B54-K33 5/19/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
Totals
Kerry States	Battleground States	Bush States

23	69	76	67	56	26	94	47	80

168	149	221

Discuss ECB2004 On Free Republic

This week's quiz: Since 1948, one state has gone every time to the candidate who won the national popular vote. Which?

The extra polling attention in Alabama was probably due to our ousted State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore.

He put 4 of his aides onto our Primary ballot, dividing Conservative opinion greatly (conservatives are upset that an unelected federal judge removed Justice Moore, and they are upset that several Republicans followed the law in the process).

But as of yesterday, Moore is no longer a factor. President Bush won the Republican primary here yesterday, so even the most radical of Moore supporters can't hope to become Moore delegates to the Republican convention in NYC this year. Only 1 of Moore's aides won their primary races...Parker beat Jean Brown, a Republican Justice who voted to send Moore to a judicial review.

This will pacify 90% of Moore's supporters. They'll now concentrate on getting their Republican Justice to beat their Democratic state supreme court competition...putting everyone back inside the Big Tent again.

Life is good.

As such, interest will now wane from Washington, D.C. about a potential split among Conservatives in Alabama.

Or put another way, I doubt that you see so much polling activity here anytime soon.

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