Posted on 06/15/2004 2:59:12 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
21 Jun is the first scheduled spaceflight. Can the second be 22 Jun or would it take longer to prepare the SpaceShipOne?
There's no current business case for it, though -- venture capitalists are not likely to invest the multi-billions necessary to start asteroid mining from scratch, in the vague hope that their grandkids will possibly see a profit sometime within the next 50-75 years. Asteroid mining becomes possible and attractive when there is a space infrastructure already in place, and not before.
Most definately.
We have to be polite and not say so outloud.
Yeah, where's Zephram (sp?) when you need him?
The US has already asserted sovereignty over all outer space, but they have failed to recognize private property rights there. Until private property rights are recognized in outer space, there will be no private investment in outer space resources. That is the true stopper, not lack of a business plan.
Bush said he would do something about private property in outer space. He has not. He must do this.
The vision presents the roadmap (so many haven't even bothered to read it)and it will take steady funding, not mega increases, to stay on that road. Building a spacefaring infrastructure is going to open it up all the way.
Other than the X-prize itself, Burt Rutan cannot make money on his SS-1. The "tourist" dollar will tap itself out pretty quickly, and there are a lot cheaper ways to do "useful" sub-orbital stuff.
And yes, I know the X-Prize is not an orbital shot. But I expect there will be an X2, and an X3. And at every stage, I imagine, there will be one or more Burt Rutans to take up the challenge.
There's the rub. Can there be an orbital X2? I really don't think his current design will carry over to one that can reach orbit, and survive re-entry multiple times -- there are some basic issues of scale and structure that will make the X2 far more complex and expensive than the SS-1. Would it be cost-effective to build and operate? Would it be reliable enough? Are there enough customers to support an X2-building company? These are real questions, and Rutan's design does not address them.
Agreed.
From reports, it sounds like private enterprise is the goal - leading to a vigorous space economy.
Learning how to live off planet will be the test. By mining and using resourses off-Earth, we will truly break free from the gravity well.
Only in support of NASA programs, not in private development of outer space resources.
Oh? Would the Russians, and now the Chinese, recognize that sovereignty? In addition, we're also signatories to numerous Space Treaties governing various space activities. The most relevant would be the AGREEMENT GOVERNING THE ACTIVITIES OF STATES ON THE MOON AND OTHER CELESTIAL BODIES (1979).
but they have failed to recognize private property rights there.
Well, to be quite honest, there's no pressing need to do this, because the likelihood of it being an issue within our lifetimes is slim.
Until private property rights are recognized in outer space, there will be no private investment in outer space resources.
That's only the final hurdle. The first hurdle is to find a use for outer space resources. They don't make economic sense unless there is a use for them in space.
That is the true stopper, not lack of a business plan.
Not even close. Private industry cannot hope to survive spending billions on something that has no potential for payback until decades later. IF we decide as a nation that space business is worthwhile, then the nation needs to build the necessary infrastructure. Private industry won't.
Of course. They have also asserted sovereignty of all outer space.
Private property will be worked out. I believe getting there first is a good start. We need to establish our free market system and ideology as the marker for others who follow.
Be careful to present your business plan to the right people. Don't waste your time with folks who have no intention of investing in your company.
-Jane Applegate
June 21 is not an qualifying X-Prize attempt, since SpaceShipOne will not be carrying three passengers or weight eqivalent to two passengers in addition to the pilot. The flight on June 21 appears to be a test run to the required altitude prior to making an official attempt.
Regarding turn-around time, the Scaled Composites FAQ says they intend to replace the fuel casing and the nozzle on the rocket engine between high-altitude flights. I don't know how long this could reasonably be expected to take--although some areonautical types around here might be able to make a good guess.
I won't be surprised if Scaled Composites takes the full two weeks between their two official X-Prize attempts.
Okay. They will be collecting records all the way.
Of course, I don't know whether or not an X2 goal would be achievable--but that would be the point of sponsering a prize. Since the money is only paid when the goal is achieved, the prize would only attract those willing to gamble that they can achieve it.
I assume that any X2 prize would be for a reusable, orbital vehical. I don't believe Rutan has said whether or not he would participate an an X2 endeavor--so we don't know he thinks it can be done.
Perhaps you are right, and an X2 objective would be out of the reach of private industry--but I expect we will see the X-Prize foundation put up some money to find out.
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