Posted on 06/15/2004 2:59:12 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
I don't think it's "out of reach" technically, as the technical details are actually very well known, and we already know they can be achieved.
The problem is that private industry has to be able to make money on their product. That's the sticking point -- is there really a market for a private manned spaceflight capability? Is there a reason for company X to choose a manned flight over an expendable? At some point the answer will probably be "yes," but a lot of things have to happen before then.
If it can be done safely and reliably, I am confident there would be a market for same-day, round-the-world package delivery and passenger service. Not for everything and everyone, of course--but there are some things, and some people, which would "absolutely positively have to be there this afternoon," if the technology allowed it.
If SpaceShipOne is costing roughly $50 million, the orbital version would be over $1 billion. It's not like 60 miles high is halfway to orbit, even though orbit is halfway to anywhere.
Yeah, orbital capability would be much more difficult than the X-Prize objective.
If you scale the purse for a theoretical X2 prize in proportion to the numbers cited above, it comes out to more than $200 million. I don't know if that would be enough incentive for a project which might run $1 billion. I also don't know if the X-Prize Foundation could raise that much.
I actually didn't realize SpaceShipOne was costing so much. Rutan must have commerical plans beyond the X-Prize, if he is spending five times as much as the purse to win.
Perhaps. OTOH, Paul Allen (Microsoft Tycoon) is Rutan's biggest money guy. $50 million to him may be his idea of charity. The X-prize is cool, and Rutan's SS-1 is definitely cool. There may be not much more to this than two guys doing something neat.
I forgot about Allen. He does seem to spend his money on whatever suits his fancy. You are right--they may not be interested in making a profit.
They said $30 a few months ago, but then their investors came with some more, so probably $50 is in the ballpark.
For your consideration.
""Ping""
As well as getting there first, we're going to have to remain dominant in space technology and infrastructure. Russia has pretty similar ideals to ours now, so they shouldn't be as big of ideological foes. The real deal is China and other people of various ideologies who will get on board our space elevators and such so that they can get into space and criticize and attack the Americans who got them there.
Of course there is Elon Musk with his rockets and he's planning on bypassing sub-orbital altogether. He should be sending his first payloads into orbit later this year, with his Falcon V rocket launching next year which could be man-rated.
SS1 is a prize-winner / proof-of-concept bird. The Ansari money is strictly laginappe; if successful, Scaled will likely present Mr. Allen with a suite of designs for larger private spacecraft (including orbit-capable ships) based upon the lessons and techniques proven in the SS1 program which will enable him to bootstrap a commercial passenger service to space into existence.
(A militarized SS1 would also fill some interesting gaps in the Pentagon’s space capabilities chart. I’d be surprised if there’s not something interesting in that vein in the works already.)
SpaceX has the Falcon 1 vehicle built and ready to fly; the larger Falcon 5 is still on the drawing board as far as I know.
Trying to figure out Kerry's space vision. Seems he says Bush's space vision is long on goals but short on resources. Would Kerry pump more resources into NASA? Hem and haw. Have to weight that against reducing the deficit and funding social programs. In other words, NO. Forget it, Kerry.
Can you tell me where I can get more info on This Falcon rocket!
Kerry's schtick is incoherent criticism. If elected, he won't govern, the polls will.
I rate candidates on the basis of their attitude toward space development. Single issue, other things such as abortion and Second Amendment being equal between candidates. Kerry has just issued his space policy statement and he has flopped. He is a space nincompoop.
If people suddenly acquire an intense, sustained interest in space, Kerry will be your man. In any reasonably likely future, the best NASA can hope for is benign neglect.
My neighbor's dog knows more about space business. If I had to choose going bird hunting between Clinton, Gore, or Kerry, it would be no contest.
Click here:
http://www.spacex.com
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