Yes, it is. See the map below (Sorry about the size).
--Boot Hill
Posted on 06/17/2004 11:16:30 PM PDT by AdmSmith
There was a news report of 2 US Marines killed in Kunar Province of Afghanistan.....near where Mr. Rahman made his border crossing.
Osama's top lieutenant, Ayman Zawahiri, is now thought to be directing operations from Al Qaeda's newly built base in the village of Shah Salim, about 30 miles west of the Pakistani city of Chitral, near the border of Afghanistan's Kunar Province. The other base is in the Pakistani village of Murkushi on the Chinese border, about 90 miles north of the Pakistani city of Gilgit.
The area of Chitral appears again - this is right where Boothill has been showing us -
Locator.
Yes, it is. See the map below (Sorry about the size).
--Boot Hill
Possibly, but I wouldn't rule out China, either.
--Boot Hill
The Wakhan Corridor.
--Boot Hill
Chitral is in a gorgeous valley. Actually, it is so beautiful that it is a well known tourist location. Google: "Pakistan" and "Chitral", and see all the tourist info.
But the surrounding mountains are a different story altogether. They are very steep and high and would be impassable during winter and no picnic during summer.
--Boot Hill
You mentioned a river bed ....back a couple of posts.....look at the new map you posted see how the Kunar River comes out of Asadabad,Afghanistan goes across into Pakistan near Chitral......and goes all the way up to China.........hhhhhhmmmmmmmm!
Check out the topography of that route into China. Heights are in meters. The first map is western half of that access and the second map is the eastern half of that access.
--Boot Hill
Wow.
Interesting new stuff. Thanks
Not sure if anyone's heard of them, but I did satellite support for a pair of brothers who climb 8,000 meter peaks named Adrian and Alan Burgess in 2001 for an expedition to one of the peaks shown in the maps above, named Rakaposhi. They took a shot at K2 via the NW ridge back in '88 I believe, but got shut down at about 24k by heavy snow and avalanche risk. They went around to the standard route up the Abruzzi Ridge and got up to 27k before being pinned down by bad weather and having to retreat. Their expedition leader stayed for another attempt and was killed along with six others when bad weather pinned them down so long they basically lost the ability to move and the will to live.
According to US military doctrine, mountainous terrain can be roughly divided into three main categories.
Category I represents the valleys and populated areas. Military operations in Cat-1 areas are usually channelized, resupply can be an issue and mobility is low to moderate. The surrounding terrain throws "support shadows", areas where artillery and other indirect fires cannot reach.
Category II represents the steep and often inaccessible slopes above the valleys. Mobility is extremely low. When accessible, there are resupply problems which may or may not offset the ability to rain fire down on the enemy in the Cat I areas.
Category III represents the ridgelines. While often inaccessible from Cat I and II areas, once access is gained, the ridgelines can often offer relatively good mobility and excellent fire support.
At and above about 19,000 feet, (about 6000 meters) the human body begins to die, regardless of acclimation. Appetite dwindles to zero, the expenditure of calories just to maintain basic body rhythms and internal warmth rises significantly, the body's ability to process and obtain oxygen is dramatically lowered, rest or sleep are often disturbed by Cheyne-Stokes breathing cycles (forgetting to breathe, trust me, not the way you want to wake up every five minutes, all night long), and recovery from even minor injuries is slow or even reversed.
Every major system of the human body breaks down at high altitude, and there are other, even more significant risks. High Altitude Pulmonary Edema (HAPE) strikes without warning, and can strike anyone, at anytime, above even the modest elevation of 8,000'. It makes no difference if you've knocked off Everest several times or haven't been off the couch for two decades. The lungs begin to fill with fluid and you basically drown in your own bodily fluids.
High Altitude Cerebral Edema (HACE) also strikes without warning, and is in no way selective about who it strikes. Cerebral fluid leaks across the membranes creating pressure on the brain, and disorientation, hallucinations, coma and eventually death are the result.
In many cases, even the terrain in Cat-1 areas, the valleys, is unforgiving. The temperatures at night can sink lower than 40 below zero. Daytime movement in glaciated areas poses three main dangers, avalanche, hidden crevasses, and movement of apartment building sized blocks of ice as the glacier surges downhill. Winds ranging from 100 to 150 miles per hour are not uncommon.
The bottom line is this. Military operations on either side are essentially impossible above 19,000 feet, and from 12k to 19k they are severely curtailed. During Operation Anaconda, our troops had troubles operating at the comparatively low altitudes of ten and eleven thousand feet. Rotary wing aircraft had severe restrictions placed on their use.
The use of any mountainous region in the Hindu Kush, the Karakoram, and the Kashmir regions, except Cat I areas is, for all intents and purposes other than a small team ascent, impossible. Adjust expectations accordingly.
With that said, doesn't all the same restrictions hold true for Al Qeade as well then - operating in those areas? - I mean UBL & Al Zawahiri can't be living continually up in those heights ....can they?
And if so, what are our options - I would still believe we have guys willing to go operate in those areas for short time periods....no?
Also what type of reconnaissance options do we have - I mean UBL can't be operating with very large numbers in that area - can he be -without reconnaissance having a chance at sighting a source?
Yes, the conditions apply equally to both sides. There isn't really a Pakistani equivalent to the Sherpas in Nepal. The Pak Baltis act as porters, but they are unequipped for travel above snowline, often with no shoes, and because they do not and work at the altitudes that Sherpas do, they are not acclimatized in advance, even though they are the closest thing to natives in the region.
There are a couple Nepalese monasteries I know of above 14,000 feet, and possibly one at 17,000 feet, but I believe it has been abandoned. Humans just aren't comfortable living up that high and the avalanches are brutal.
I have no doubt that our soldiers would give it a try if ordered to ascend to extreme altitudes, and some of the climbing instructors no doubt already have 8,000 meter experience, but the question becomes just how effective they could be up there, willing or not.
If the bad guys want to operate in there, they can eke out a survival in the valleys, but I don't believe you'll find significant numbers up high, and probably not all that many in the valleys. I think the high altitude passes offer conduits for a few hardy souls, but not what I'd call operational areas.
To avoid the dangers posed by avalanche and high winds, and to lighten their loads, many expeditions forego tents and dig snow caves instead. This practice would probably defeat most sensors while the enemy was holed up, but other than that, the warmth of a human being would stand out real nice against all that cold snow.
Very good point! - One has to wonder if UBL - Al Zawahiri have escape routes (if alerted) that get them to higher elevations (with as quick a climb as possible - through known routes, passes, ridges, etc).
Be it, even if it is only for short time periods.
Your post #152 and #154 were an interesting read.
I think that much of the concern about the far northern reaches of Kashmir, is more a concern about a possible linkage (or sanctuary, support, etc.) with China via the Khunjerab (Karakoram) Pass. It has a drivable road that enters China at "only" 16,200 feet.
Back in January, we had a conversation (here with more in #12) with poster "rogue yam", who related his (harrowing) bus trip in 1987 from China to Pakistan via this very same pass.
However likely or unlikely, clandestine Chinese collaboration with al-Qa'ida and Osama bin Laden may seem, the possibility can't be ignored.
--Boot Hill
"However likely or unlikely, clandestine Chinese collaboration with al-Qa'ida and Osama bin Laden may seem, the possibility can't be ignored."
Agree this possibility can't be ignored - What are the borders like near China - Do the Chinese have a strong military presence there or are the borders pretty open? - I would expect many Muslims to be living on the Chinese side of the border as well - which would make one think UBL could have friends there - no?
There's at least one documented tie between Al Qaida and China. After Clinton's retaliatory strike in Sudan and Afghanistan, China either purchased or was trying to purchase unexploded TLAMs that Al Qaeda had found on the approaches to the target areas.
The following is derived from secondhand sources so take it with a grain of salt. The road crossings at the Chinese border are checkpointed, with a sizable military presence at each. Relationships with Western climbing expeditions are chilly but correct. Paperwork must be exactly in order, there is some searching of gear and trucks, with particular emphasis on what is being brought into China. Outgoing concerns seem to be much lower. This general situation has been reported at numerous points across the border areas in both Pakistan and Nepal. With many of these expeditions routinely used to bribing Nepalese and Pakistani Customs agents, in order to get them to overlook the import of beef, currency, quantity restrictions etc., it is noteworthy that I do not recall any attempt or even consideration of bribing the Chinese Border Guards at the checkpoints.
There is significant patrol activity, even at higher altitudes. Climbers looking to sneak across the border for a quick unlicensed summit are extremely careful not to make contact with patrols or with traveling locals. The assumption is that the locals will pass on sightings of foreigners to the Chinese troops.
The troops themselves seem to fit the description of "remote border garrisons", largely autonomous to local authority, somewhat contemptuous of the majority of border crossers, brought on by contacts largely limited to mountain locals.
While the conditions described do not seem conducive to smuggling, if it does take place the likely channels would be via small village officials on the Chinese side who had established contacts with the border guards, and with regular cross border trafficers. As for the porosity of the border, the climbers can and do make it across and back without interference, but they stick to remote passes, and use extreme caution. Many of these passes are at 19,000 feet or higher and the conditions can be fearsome.
Based on the general overview provided by the different accounts available, it seems that cross border terrorist operations would be more in the nature of temporary safe haven, with permanent presence on the Chinese side less likely. The Guards do not promote familiarity, and maintain living accomodations apart from local populations. Unlikely, but not impossible. If anyone would be likely to find cracks in the border, it would be Bin Laden.
Something else to consider when looking at trafficability in that region, is that a major feeder route into the Wakhan Corridor is the Panjshir Valley, but that the residents there would be significantly hostile to both the terrorists and the Taliban. There is a long period of conflict between the two, beginning during the Russian occupation. The inhabitants of the Panjshir, under Gen. Masood, (The Lion of the Panjshir) were in direct competition with the jihadists over funding from the US and Saudi Arabia, funnelled through the Pak ISI. After the fall of the communist government in Kabul, Masood was appointed secretary of defense in Kabul, weathering many attacks from the jihadist sympathizer Gulbuddin Hekmatyr, before being ousted by the Taliban. Finally, on 9/9/2001, Al Qaeda terrorists assassinated Masood, leaving his Northern Alliance troops behind to fight under the temporary command of Gen. Dostum, who was based at Mazar-i-Sharif.
There are other conduits through the valleys and over the passes, but I would strongly suggest that the main road running through the Panjshir woukd be an unfriendly or even hostile environment for radical proponents of Islam.
Again, very interesting to read your entire post - with the above segment seeming possibly very true....and very frustrating -
One wonders, if this is where UBL and Al Zawahiri are operating (more like simply trying to live) - it does beg the question - are we really going to be able to get them - ever? - Without a very large scale man-hunt (thousands of troops for an extended time (supplies, etc) in this area.
It has been a bad week for the aQ:
http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.php?id=68913
3 Al Qaeda men arrested in SWA
Sunday June 27, 2004 (0320 PST)
WANA, June 27 (Online): Security Forces in South Waziristan Agency (SWA) on Sunday arrested a leading member of Al Qaeda, Commander Mohammad Nazir along with two of his associates .
The arrest was made when Commander Nazir along with his associates was coming to Wana from Angoor Ada, Frontier Constabulary men at Zalai Check post intercepted him and recovered arms and ammunition from them .
When Online contacted Assistant Political Agent Khan Baksh he denied revealing any detail about the arrest .
However, the relatives of Mohammad Nazir confirmed that he was an important Al Qaeda commander in the area .
Commander Nazir is not among the list of five men wanted by the government but his arrest is termed an important blow to Al Qaeda network in the area .
In the meantime, Governor NWFP Lt Gen (Retd) Syed Iftikhar Hussein Shah and forty member delegation of tribal elders of Ahmedzai Wazir tribe after reaching a resolve has relaxed sanctions in tribal belt for ten days staring today (Monday) .
Under the decision Wana fruit market will be open for ten days as well but the inhabitants of the area have demanded a further extension in relaxation period saying that the fruit and vegetable season continues for three months and ten days relaxation will not affect their already damaged business .
These sanctions were imposed in SWA during the military crackdown aimed to hunt down foreign miscreants hiding in tribal area .
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