Iranian Alert -- June 30, 2004 [EST]-- IRAN LIVE THREAD -- "Americans for Regime Change in Iran"

Washington and Tehran - A Game of Tit-for-Tat

Stratfor Foundation - Analysis
Jun 29, 2004

Washington and Tehran are engaging in a series of diplomatic spats while Iran attempts to make the United States recognize its strength. The question is: How long will the United States let the game continue?

Analysis

The United States has expelled two Iranian security guards from New York City for taking photographs of local landmarks, infrastructure and transport systems. Washington said the two were involved in activities
"incompatible with their stated duties." In diplomatic terms: They were spies. The men, who worked security for the Iranian mission to the United Nations, were observed taking photos in June 2002 and November 2003.

The U.S. government has suspected the men were spies for at least two years, indicating that the June 29 expulsion was determined by the recent escalation in tensions between Tehran and Washington. Iran hopes to manage a crisis and redefine its role in the gulf -- with American cooperation. The United States, on the other hand, is demonstrating its determination to keep Tehran contained.

The situation will escalate in the coming weeks into a series of diplomatic tit-for-tat spats. Iran will likely respond to Washington's latest move with an expulsion of its own within the next two weeks, likely of a CIA operative it might have identified in Iran. Tehran probably would hold the detainee for interrogation and ultimately negotiate his release. Should Iran wait longer to respond, it would signal that Tehran did not expect Washington's move -- and had not prepared a counteraction.

Iran does not want a war with the United States. It does want a managed escalation in tensions that will force Washington to acknowledge Persia's natural and enduring hegemony of the gulf region. It also wants the United States and Britain to back off the nuclear
issue.

Iran has invited the Americans to play a game of diplomatic chess. The detention of the eight British sailors June 21 and their release three days later was meant as an opening salvo. The message broadcast to
Washington via London was that Tehran could and would have a say in the military and political affairs of Iraq and the gulf. Five days later, the United States made its move.

The decision by the United States to retaliate for the British sailor's detention -- rather than let London respond -- suggests Washington is happy to join the contest. It is likely both sides will continue to fuel
the crisis, with Iran taking carefully calculated moves meant to provoke a carefully calculated response -- and vice versa.

The critical question is how far Washington will let this go. Tehran is playing a subtle game and expects the United States to respond as carefully. Washington is not known for subtle responses in general -- and at this point in history has a low tolerance for political games with Muslim countries. It certainly is not going to cede hegemony in the gulf to Iran over the detainment of a few British sailors or a single CIA spy. Nor is Iran about to let its centuries-old dream of controlling the Persian Gulf go up in smoke over losing a couple of U.N.-based spooks.

This is just getting started.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_6865.shtml

Freedom But at a Price

June 30, 2004
This is Gwent
Tom Whiteley

NEW LIFE: Iranian refugee Maryam pictured with her daughter and a friend

She loves her country - but Maryam was forced to flee Iran to save her life and the life of her daughter.

Tom Whiteley speaks to Maryam, now a refugee living in Newport, about escaping the country in which she feared she would be put to death, and her continuing longing for her homeland.

What would it take for you to leave your family, your friends and your home for an uncertain life in a foreign country hundreds of miles away?

Even after 24 years of life under a regime which denied women the right to be educated or walk the streets alone, it wasn't until one Middle Eastern mother's life was in danger that she fled her home country.

Maryam (not her real name) and her husband and daughter, who are legally classed as refugees, live in Newport after coming to Britain last year.

They fled their home country of Iran after more than two months in hiding. Their nightmare began in 1979, when the Islamic Revolution overthrew the Shah of Iran.

Maryam, now in her late thirties, says: "We were very young, only teenagers when it happened. We were a big middle-class family and a family who cared about education.

"After the Revolution, between 1979 and 1981 we had a very short and unstable atmosphere of freedom just for two years. This freedom was not given to us. This was what the people took for themselves."

But following the ascent of Ayatollah Khomeini to power, the new Islamic government began imposing fundamentalism on ordinary Iranians. And one of its first actions was to force women to wear the traditional headscarf, the hijab, at all times.

Maryam says: "The hijab they made us wear everywhere - in schools, universities and offices. It was not to be worn with family but as soon as a stranger comes. I believe in it as a moslem but it should not be compulsory for all people.

"It was a sign that there was more suppression on the way, for all the society but particularly for women.

"At the same time they smashed people, they harassed people and insulted people in the streets, especially those women who did not wear the hijab.

"Then men couldn't wear short-sleeved shirts. They had to cover their arms. Then they dismissed all women from the offices and brought in compulsory prayer in the offices.

"They started to suppress political parties. This meant that more suppression was on the way for us and we had a real feeling of fear. "People were killed in the streets and the jails. One of my friends was arrested - she was only 16 - just for speaking about her ideas. They didn't release her and after two years they executed her. That was after many, many tortures - putting out the cigarettes on her skin and so on."

In Maryam's youth Iran had been a prosperous country ruled by the Shah. But the Islamic Revolution soon affected every part of her life. She says: "Iran was more aggressive, more fundamental, more religious. They were very rude. If you were a woman out in public the Revolutionary Guards would come to you and ask who the man with you was and if it was your brother or husband. If you said `He's my cousin,' they would arrest both of you.

"They would ask you why you put on make-up and why you put on the clothes you were wearing. Indoors was the only place you were in freedom to speak and in freedom to write." In the 1980s, Maryam was arrested and imprisoned for distributing political leaflets.

She says: "I went to court and they sentenced me - they did it all in five minutes. The only evidence was one man who came along and said he'd seen me, and that was enough.

"Without any solicitor or lawyer or anyone to defend me, they sentenced me to four years in prison.

"We were in a room no bigger than an ordinary front room and there were 80 prisoners in that room. We couldn't sleep at the same time. We had to take turns. And every day they chose someone for execution and they would choose someone for whipping.

"In 1988, after my release, the Ayatollah ordered a massacre in all the prisons in Iran and they killed about 10,000 prisoners - mostly political prisoners.

"They would ask one question - if you agreed with them or not. If you said No you were shot. Most of our friends were executed in this year."

Maryam and her family were forced to flee when her husband argued with a man related to a member of the Revolutionary Guard. They were forced into hiding for two-and-a-half months before paying thousands of pounds to be smuggled out of Iran.

The family was officially declared refugees and will be eligible to apply for British citizenship in a year.

But while Maryam loves the freedom of Wales, she longs to return to the country and the family she has left.

She says: "I felt a very heavy thing on my heart which I cannot explain to anyone in Britain.

"The freedom we have here is good and I like that we have it, but it's how I can use this freedom to improve things and to tell my story to the world. "We are here alone. We can't have direct contact with our families and that is very difficult. My daughter says she is happy and sad. "In my dreams I am still in my country."

http://www.thisisgwent.co.uk/gwent/news/NEWS8.html

BRITAIN SAYS IRAN FORCED SAILORS INTO ITS WATERS

Reuters ^ | 6/30/04
Posted on 06/30/2004 11:49:28 AM PDT by areafiftyone

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Iran forced eight British servicemen into its territorial waters when its troops captured them earlier this month, Britain said on Wednesday.

The eight were detained by Iranian Revolutionary Guards after they were seized on the Shatt al-Arab waterway along the Iran-Iraq border.

They were handed over to British diplomats after three nights when Tehran said they had mistakenly veered off course.

Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon said the men had a different story.

"The initial assessment... was that these service personnel could have strayed into Iranian waters by mistake," Hoon said in a written statement to parliament.

"In recent more detailed debriefing the crews have said that they were operating inside the Iraqi border and were forcibly escorted into Iranian territorial waters," he said.

Prime Minister Tony Blair's government, alongside other European Union nations, has attempted a policy of engagement with Tehran. But relations have soured recently as Britain has put pressure on Iran over doubts about its nuclear programme.

The British government continues to negotiate for the return of the men's boats and equipment. "The deadline set for their return passed yesterday," Hoon said. He also said a strong message had been sent about the parading of the men blindfolded on television, shortly after their capture.

"We are very concerned about the blindfolding of the men and have made representations about this to the government of Iran," Hoon said. "We have also made it clear that we do not expect a recurrence of this type of incident."

Britain said on Wednesday it had used diplomacy to resolve a potential clash with Iranian Revolutionary Guards who began "digging in" inside Iraq in mid-2003.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1163181/posts

Movement pays tribute to Student Uprising in VOA TV program

SMCCDI (Information Service)
Jun 29, 2004

The SMCCDI Coordinator, Aryo B. Pirouznia, paid tribute to the Student Movement's glorious uprising of July 9, 1999, during a VOA Satellite and Internet TV program broadcasted tonight Worldwide.

Responding live to VOA anchor's Avi Davidi's question on the root of the uprising, Pirouznia stated: "The elements which lead to the uprising were in line with hopes which brought millions of Iranians especially the women and youth, in 1997, to vote for Mr. Khatami in what became famous as the governmentally managed "2nd Khordad Front". Prior to that date and as everyone should remember of the socio-politico and economic situation of that time, the general situation had reached the Dead End and an explosive level and we were witnessing bloody riots taking place in cities, such as, in Eslamshahr and Akbar Abad as early as in 1996."

He added: "Most voters went to the ballot boxes just in order to give a mandate to Mr. Khatami with the only hope to push, with a lesser cost, for "reforms from within". But as we witnessed, with the closure of the monitored press, those believes were turned to be false. The closure of the Salam Daily turned into a limited students demo and the brutal reaction of the regime which it attacked the students' dorm in Amir Abbad. This governmental attack and the murder of several students lead consequently to the Five days of Massive Students Uprising which shocked the entire World.

But, despite the brutal crackdown which followed, some students were believing that the rescue could come from Mr. Khatami and they were even calling for his help during the two first days of the uprising. It's to note that such wrong idea was spread by pro-governmental religious student associations which were in reality carrying the same goals than the regime's so-called reformists faction and in a total disregard for the deep aspirations of the Iranian people."

"What were the consequences of July 9th Uprising?" Davidi asked.

The SMCCDI Coordinator responded: "For sure when everyone witnessed that after five days of uprising, Mr. Khatami broke his silence and intervened only in order to qualify the students and protesters as just "bunch of hooligans", such statement helped to start pulling off the masks from Mr. Khatami and the regime faces. It showed that the Islamic regime, just as like as any other Ideological system and in its case a theocratic entity, has not the ability of being reformed from within. For so, everyone started to understand that the answer to the nation's deep aspirations is much beyond the boundaries of the Islamic republic regime.

"This understanding helped the gradual formation of various type of actions, such as, the Soccer Movement, the Workers Movement and various other popular demonstrations, such as, the strikes we're actually witnessing in many parts of the country. All are showing, in our days, the net radicalization of the Freedom Movement and the gradual formation of a necessary unity, among Iranians and freedom lovers, on specific axes, such as, Secularity, Democracy and Free elections for self determination.." he emphasized.

On June 14th and during another Satellite TV interview, with the popular NITV, the Movement's Coordinator called for the "Massive and Spread" celebration of the anniversary of the 1999 Students Uprising which will be held this year on July 8th. Speaking to NITV's anchor Cyrus Sharafshahi, Pirouznia stated: "While despite all pressures, increase of repression and the existing non official curfew, many of our comrades will gather, this year, around the universities areas; We're calling on all Iranians to transform each street or roof into a place for popular demonstration and show of rejection of the Islamic republic." This will force the regime to spread its forces and mercenaries and to be less efficient in cracking down. The World is waiting to see our action and true aspiration. Let's size the moment! "

The program (VOA's "News & Views" of 6/29/04) will be re-aired tomorrow morning, Iran local time, and can be seen on at the following link till 12:00 PM US EST by visiting: http://www.voanews.com/real/voa/nenaf/fars/pers1700v.ram . The interview can be seen from the minute 18':45'' of the program. It will transferred after 12:00 PM to the VOA website's archives section.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_6859.shtml

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.