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Bush Loses Support Among Hispanics. Major racial/ethnic divide in presidential contest. (Gallup)
Gallup ^ | July 6, 2004 | David W. Moore

Posted on 07/05/2004 11:56:57 PM PDT by FairOpinion

In the two-way contest, Bush enjoys a 12-point lead over Kerry among whites, 53% to 41%. But among blacks, Kerry wins overwhelmingly (81% to 12%), and among Hispanics he enjoys a 19-point lead (57% to 38%).


(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gwb2004; hispanicvote
I guess it will come down to the racial mixture of the electorate. That's why Bush needs to make inroads with Hispanics and Blacks. You can't win an election, without them.

I think it is quite remarkable that Bush had a significant approval rating among Hispanics, but for some reason -- probably as a result of the Democrats relentless lies, which went unchallenged by Republicans, Bush's approval rating dropped from 67 to 40% among Hispanics over the past year. Half of his support among Blacks evaporated also.

He needs to get that support back.

1 posted on 07/05/2004 11:56:58 PM PDT by FairOpinion
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To: FairOpinion

All that hispandering by the Bushies have turned off white voters and it hasn't brought Hispanics into the Bush camp. Go figure.


2 posted on 07/05/2004 11:59:36 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: RWR8189

Gallup PING


3 posted on 07/06/2004 12:00:26 AM PDT by FairOpinion (If you are not voting for Bush, you are voting for the terrorists.)
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To: goldstategop

I think Hispanics were strongly supportive of the Iraq war, and all the Dem lies turned them off.


4 posted on 07/06/2004 12:01:21 AM PDT by FairOpinion (If you are not voting for Bush, you are voting for the terrorists.)
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To: FairOpinion

W only got 8% of the black vote in '00. 12% is an improvement.


5 posted on 07/06/2004 12:01:27 AM PDT by ambrose ("Wearing Religion on Your Sleeve," DemoRat Style: http://tinyurl.com/yvvmz)
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To: goldstategop

Actually some of the Hispanics are against Bush right now because of the new, tighter restrictions on Cuba.

Visits have been limited, as has the amount of money being sent by relatives into Cuba.

Some of the Cubans see this as a good thing, a way to keep American money from propping up the economy and Castro. But many Cubans don't see it that way.


6 posted on 07/06/2004 12:04:08 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: ambrose

Exactly, although I thought it was 6% in 2000? Anyway this poll seems to be saying to me:

1. Bush is polling better among African-Americans than 2000.

2. Bush is polling about the same among Hispanics as 2000.

I do not know how Bush did in 2000 among whites, clearly this poll is not bad news, unless I am wrong about the Hispanic numbers from 2000 or Bush is polling worse among whites than in 2000.


7 posted on 07/06/2004 12:05:41 AM PDT by JLS
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To: FairOpinion

Since when is "hispanic" a *race?*


8 posted on 07/06/2004 12:06:50 AM PDT by adam_az (Call your State Republican Party office and VOLUNTEER!!!!)
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To: dawn53

I was hoping that Bush would change Clinton's "wet-foot, dry-foot" policy, just because it's wrong.

I hope the Cuban Americans will support Bush, he needs their support, without them, he wouldn't have carried Florida.


9 posted on 07/06/2004 12:07:03 AM PDT by FairOpinion (If you are not voting for Bush, you are voting for the terrorists.)
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To: adam_az

You mean you don't know about "La Raza"? ;)


10 posted on 07/06/2004 12:07:40 AM PDT by FairOpinion (If you are not voting for Bush, you are voting for the terrorists.)
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To: goldstategop
All that hispandering by the Bushies have turned off white voters and it hasn't brought Hispanics into the Bush camp.

Being turned off is not an option with so much at stake. Being turned off makes losers of both the GOP and of those who are turned off. Remember: "It's the voters, stupid."

11 posted on 07/06/2004 12:08:31 AM PDT by Consort
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To: everyone

Bush should focus like a laser on the white working class.

Anything that appeals to the white working class will also appeal to those Hispanics and blacks whom we have any hope of getting.


12 posted on 07/06/2004 12:09:28 AM PDT by California Patriot (California Patriot)
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To: everyone

Actually, 38 percent for Bush among Hispanics is not bad.
I believe Reagan did roughly that well in 1984.

Any number much higher than that would have been unrealistic. In other words, whatever Hispanic support Bush has lost is support that he would have lost anyway.


13 posted on 07/06/2004 12:11:03 AM PDT by California Patriot (California Patriot)
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To: FairOpinion; Salvation; redlipstick; texasflower; seamole; Doctor Stochastic; MegaSilver; ...

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.


14 posted on 07/06/2004 12:21:49 AM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: California Patriot

If Bush gets 38% of the Hispanic vote, Bush wins. 38 percent would be a major improvement from Dole in '96 and even better than Reagan.


15 posted on 07/06/2004 12:30:22 AM PDT by nunoste
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To: FairOpinion

I think stuff like this only serves to increase racial division in our nation.


16 posted on 07/06/2004 12:30:55 AM PDT by k2blader (It is neither compassionate nor conservative to support the expansion of socialism.)
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To: FairOpinion

The "pandering " to hispanics is sickening. Is that why they are to become 60% of our population? politicians selling out
our country to gain votes of an ethnic group.

Both parties stink on this issue.


17 posted on 07/06/2004 12:34:31 AM PDT by ChiMark
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To: k2blader

"I think stuff like this only serves to increase racial division in our nation."

I agree. Security and a good economy is important to everyone, regardless.

But the problem is that it goes both ways. In our current climate, minorities demand special treatment, and the Dems will promise them anything.


18 posted on 07/06/2004 12:40:14 AM PDT by FairOpinion (If you are not voting for Bush, you are voting for the terrorists.)
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To: ChiMark

That's right. "Both parties stink on this issue."

However, the Dems would make a bad problem even worse by
1) their endless exploitations of racial identity and division, which encourages separatist instead of assimilationist attitudes; 2) their rigid opposition to any reform of either the educational system or the welfare state, opposition which encourages ignorance and dependence instead of responsible citizenship among immigrants; 3) their softness on crime, exacerbating a problem to which immigration contributes. And that's just for starters.


19 posted on 07/06/2004 12:46:37 AM PDT by California Patriot (California Patriot)
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To: dawn53

Those Cubans are damned idiots. My mother was furious at the people bitching about Bush's new rules. Back when she came from Cuba, she never knew if she'd ever be able to return, because of Castro's rules. Now he's changed the rules because he needs the money, and like lemmings, these idiots fly on over there to visit their relatives, and in doing so, they help keep the Castro Regime afloat and help keep his boot at the necks of their relatives. But do they care? Do they even THINK about it? Not one bit. Damned imbeciles. I feel like tracking down every single one of them and kicking them squarely in the nuts.


20 posted on 07/06/2004 12:54:50 AM PDT by Green Knight (Looking forward to seeing Jeb stepping over Hillary's rotting political corpse in 2008.)
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To: k2blader; FairOpinion
"I think stuff like this only serves to increase racial division in our nation"

Worse yet, this bunch who are recently descended from Old Europe themselves creates an exodus from our Party, because they can't stand the company of their cousins. They're not only complaining about the illegals that our corporations lobby hard to bring in for cheap labor. They're complaining against all people of certain races and religions that are near/same as their own, historically (north Africa, Spain to Mexico, etc.). The whole mess is pretty clownish, really. I can understand Californians wanting to do something about illegal aliens, but their complaining generally about the company of people of races related to their own is rather nutty.
21 posted on 07/06/2004 2:13:41 AM PDT by familyop (Essayons)
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To: k2blader; FairOpinion

My point (besides being kinda bad) is that if we can entice it into voting Republican, let's do that. Then after the Election, we can get back down to internal struggles again.


22 posted on 07/06/2004 2:17:48 AM PDT by familyop (Essayons)
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To: familyop

I am unaware of a lobbying effort of any biz group to bring in any illegals...but do hear this often.

Hispanics have really only one thing in common..language.
Cuban Americans dont vote for RATS...and others that are here legally are split on their votes. Its my beleif that it is too hard to classify Hispanics into a certain group due to their varied make up. IMHO


23 posted on 07/06/2004 2:20:09 AM PDT by rrrod
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To: rrrod

...good points. I agree with your perceptions on Hispanics. There a huge numbers of Republicans among them. I would like to see them stay with us and ignore the idiots who complain about all of any particular race.

I'm acquainted with quite a few Americans of Mexican descent who don't agree with the La Raza effort and who do insist on English being spoken here. IMO, most of them are far more socially conservative than others who complain about them.

...same with black people. There are many Republicans who are black. We want their votes, conservative activism and friendship. We want them to bring more to our Party.


24 posted on 07/06/2004 2:43:25 AM PDT by familyop (Essayons)
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To: adam_az
Since when is "hispanic" a *race?*

Since it became part of the racial preferences racket.

25 posted on 07/06/2004 3:05:52 AM PDT by sphinx
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To: FairOpinion

All the polls show Bush getting a much larger percentage of the hispanic vote than he got in 2000. Which is encouraging.


26 posted on 07/06/2004 3:43:47 AM PDT by Jorge
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To: goldstategop

Bleed the tax payers...give the money to minorities...and get votes.....


27 posted on 07/06/2004 4:13:36 AM PDT by joesnuffy (Moderate Islam Is For Dilettantes)
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To: FairOpinion

"I think it is quite remarkable that Bush had a significant approval rating among Hispanics, but for some reason -- probably as a result of the Democrats relentless lies, which went unchallenged by Republicans, Bush's approval rating dropped from 67 to 40% among Hispanics over the past year. Half of his support among Blacks evaporated also.

He needs to get that support back."

The Republican Convention will bring around most of the hispanic vote this poll shows as "lost". I'm personally not to concerned about that aspect. Let the President speak in Spanish for two minutes, and thats a done deal.

As for African Americans, neither the President, nor former President Reagan, received more than single digit support. In short, they are less of a factor now than in 1980 or 1984.

Where this nomination with Edwards will help President Bush is with small business owners. They can't afford to provide health care coverage (I'm one of them, btw) due to Trial Lawyers like Edwards. And its very easy to overlook who exactly, makes up the majority in every national election.

It isn't blacks, it isn't hispanics.


28 posted on 07/06/2004 7:04:50 AM PDT by Badeye ("The day you stop learning, is the day you begin dying")
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To: FairOpinion

Non-Hispanic White bump. Trend of the future?


29 posted on 07/06/2004 7:06:09 AM PDT by AD from SpringBay (We have the government we allow and deserve.)
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To: FairOpinion

Pandering drives off the base. We need to stick to the platform.


30 posted on 07/06/2004 7:06:24 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If You're Not A Part Of The Solution, There's Good Money To Be Made In Prolonging The Problem.)
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To: ambrose

W will get 8% or less.


31 posted on 07/06/2004 7:06:46 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If You're Not A Part Of The Solution, There's Good Money To Be Made In Prolonging The Problem.)
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To: FairOpinion

I read that the Bush campaign will be targeting Blacks in certain key areas, but not nationally. His views appeal to church-going Blacks, and there are also younger Blacks which are more independent in their thinking.


32 posted on 07/06/2004 8:06:14 AM PDT by TomEwall
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To: FairOpinion

Let's see Bush got around 40% from Hispanics when he ran for re-election for governor in 1998. And now Gallup thinks 38% is bad for Bush?


33 posted on 07/06/2004 8:11:53 AM PDT by The South Texan (The Democrat Party and the leftist (ABCCBSNBCCNN NYLATIMES)media are a criminal enterprise!)
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To: FairOpinion
This is good news. In 2000 Gore received 90% of the black vote and Bush received 8% of the black vote. Gore received 67% of the Hispanic vote. Bush should be happy with these numbers.

Dole actually received 12% of the black vote in 1996. Of Gore's total vote, 28.5% came from blacks and hispanics. Without a significant turnout of minority voters, the Dems lose.

34 posted on 07/06/2004 8:26:46 AM PDT by kabar
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To: FairOpinion
The Democratic share of the black vote in 2000 increased from its already high level in 1996. Vice-President Gore’s share of the black vote was 90 percent in 2000, up from President Clinton’s 84 percent in 1996. Governor Bush’s eight percent of the black vote was less than Senator Bob Dole’s 12 percent in 1996. Ralph Nader received one percent of the black vote, considerably less than the four percent RossPerot received in 1996.

All segments among black voters gave Gore similar levels of support, except when distinguished bygender. Black women gave Gore a higher level of support (94 percent) than black men (85 percent). Sinceblack women were also a larger share of the electorate (six percent) than black men (four percent), their greater support for Gore meant that their contribution to Gore’s total vote (11.8 percent of the nationaltotal) was significantly higher than black men’s contribution (7.1 percent)

In the states where most African Americans live, Gore generally received a higher percentage of the blackvote in 2000 than did President Clinton in 1996 . With the exceptions of Arkansas(Clinton’s home state), Louisiana, and Maryland, Gore in 2000 received the same or a higher share of theblack vote than Clinton in 1996. Unfortunately for Gore, in many of the states where the black vote represented a large percentage of his total, he lost because support among many white voters was low. In Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana, more than half of Gore’s votes were cast by African Americans, yet he lost those states, as he did his home state of Tennessee, where the black share of his vote increased from 24 percent in 1996 to 35 percent.

Blacks contributed 18.9 percent of Gore’s vote in 2000, up from the 17.1 percent they contributed when Clinton was re-elected in 1996. Hispanic voters also represented a larger share of Gore’s vote in 2000. In 1996, Hispanic voters represented 7.3 percent of Clinton’s vote (they were five percent of allvoters and they gave Clinton 72 percent of their votes), while in 2000, they represented 9.6 percent of Gore’s total vote (they were seven percent of all voters and they gave Gore 67 percent of their votes). In 1996, black and Hispanic votes, combined, made up 24.4 percent of Clinton’s total. In 2000, 28.5 percent of Gore’s vote was cast by black and Hispanic voters.

35 posted on 07/06/2004 8:36:19 AM PDT by kabar
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To: FairOpinion

Hispanics will be the Majority in 2050 according to demographic studies. There goes the neighborhood. Welcome to socialism.

BTW, PC sux.


36 posted on 07/06/2004 8:39:36 AM PDT by gathersnomoss
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To: kabar

Exactly a reasonable headline and story line for this data would be Bush's minority support grows.


37 posted on 07/06/2004 10:09:07 PM PDT by JLS
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