Posted on 07/11/2004 10:58:40 PM PDT by El Conservador
"If anything, "Geppie" would have killed Kerry's chance of winning Missouri."
If Gephart could have delivered the electoral votes of Missouri, there is absolutely no doubt that Kerry would have picked him. Despite the optimism they exhibit in public, the Democrat strategists know that Kerry's BEST hope is a narrow electoral victory. Kerry has to flip a major state that Bush carried in 2000. Missouri's eleven electoral votes would loom large in that scenario since the "Show-me" state is probably the most likely Bush state to switch sides.
Ping.
Poll after poll here in this state says that Missouri is in Bush's column but he's having trouble in states like Ohio, West Virginia, and New Hampshire. If President Bush loses Missouri, I'm afraid that he would be losing other states that he carried in 2000 as well.
I think the democrats have pretty much written Missouri off as a winnable state. With those voter roles getting cleaned up a bit ( thank you Matt Blunt ), it makes their efforts all that much harder. Kerry hasn`t spent much time around here which makes me think they don`t think they can win in this state.
I think if Gov. Holden somehow wins the primary, it will be even harder for Kerry to take this state !! I know there will be plenty of Republicans flocking to the polls to get One Term Bob out of office.
I am still debating on crossing the line to vote in the Dem. primary. Just can`t decide...... I would love to see One Term Bob`s name on the ballot in Nov. just to see him get thrown out on his butt, but is it worth the risk?????
Good observation about the voter roles.
I too have thought about crossing over in the August primary for the very same reasons you've mentioned. I hate the idea of having a democratic ballot in my hand , though. Tough call.
I'm not convinced that Bush will lose Missouri, just that the state could come into play long before other Bush states. If my electoral math is correct and assuming no offsetting gains: Bush could lose New Hampshire or West Virginia and still win a electoral vote majority. Bush could lose both New Hampshire and still win the election in the House of Representatives. Missouri or Ohio if lost could tip the election to Kerry unless Bush can offset the loss elsewhere (and there are some candidates: Oregon, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, Maine, Washington, Minnesota).
No doubt. I just think Ohio is the "make or break state" in Nov.
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