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To: tobyhill; nuconvert; Cyrus the Great; DoctorZIn; F14 Pilot; faludeh_shirazi; democracy; Persia; ...

I'll tell you exactly what our government is thinking: Iraq and Afghansitan must be secure, progressive, and secular democracies before anything major can happen in Iran. Any kind of major upheaval in Iran may cause turmoil in the region if Iraq and Afghanistan aren't established and independent democratic countries. And due to history of problems in Iran, it's best to just "allow the regime to collapse".

But, anyone who thinks the regime is just going to "collapse", is living in outerspace. The regime has a fiercly loyal 15% backing - volunteer basiji who'd kill themselves before they'll allow demonstrations in the streets, hezbullah who are well-funded by the regime and know they will disappear if the regime goes, neighboring countries that fear a secular democratic Iran will be horrendous for their own regimes, revolutionary guards that owe alligance to the regime, Bazaris who receive their bread and butter from the regime, international nations [europeans, russians, japanese, chinese who are only worried about Iran's oil, and the media who simply don't give a flop - since this is a pro-Freedom movement.

Unless there is mass covert backing any form of change in government is impossible. The reigning hard-liners will never succumb, nor will they ever reform.

My Iranian friend put it best when he said "The Mullahs are not like the Shah, they don't think morally, ethically, or principally; they will kill each and every individual that threatens their stay in power." <--- in reference to the Shah refusing to allow executions of most of the Islamists in the country.


7 posted on 07/14/2004 10:13:49 PM PDT by freedom44
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To: freedom44

It is a very interesting predicament. I hope that soon there will be stability in Afghanistan and Iraq allowing some sort of break through in Iran. One thing I can say for sure, regardless of the need, you can't please all the people all the time.


13 posted on 07/15/2004 4:53:10 AM PDT by tobyhill (The war on terrorism is not for the weak)
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To: freedom44

I think people underestimate the mullahs.


31 posted on 07/15/2004 5:55:21 PM PDT by nuconvert ( Some people can tell time by looking at the sun, but I've never been able to make out the numbers)
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