Posted on 08/03/2004 4:15:39 PM PDT by gilliam
Senator Kerry Retains A Lead Through His Convention, New Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll Reveals
Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry remains solidly in the lead after a week in which his party and candidacy grabbed the political spotlight at their national convention in Boston, a new edition of Zogby Interactive polls in 16 battleground states shows.
After a string of good news for the Kerry campaign stretching back to the selection of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as the vice presidential running mate a month ago, he leads in the Electoral College by a 291-215 margin, the individual state polls shows. Four of the 16 states in the poll collection - with a combined total of 32 electoral votes - were excluded from the calculation because the races there are too close to call.
Those states are Missouri (11 votes), Nevada (5 votes), Tennessee (11 votes), and New Mexico (5 votes). Mr. Bush won all but New Mexico four years ago.
Mr. Kerry picked up ground in Florida, while Mr. Bush made up ground in West Virginia, Tennessee, and Ohio.
|
ZOGBY'S RACE SO FAR: |
Aug. 3 |
Jul 26 |
Jul 10 |
Jun 20 |
Jun 6 |
May 23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
President Bush |
215 |
220 |
205 |
285 |
242 |
218 |
|
Senator Kerry |
291 |
275 |
322 |
253 |
296 |
320 |
Please note that this chart reflects the race based on the premise that the 34 states not included in the poll will fall to the candidate of the same party to which they fell in 2000. This chart reflects only an estimation of where the Presidential race is, in part because the race in several states is within the margin of error. Four states are so close that their Electoral College votes are not included in this calculation. Those states are Missouri, Nevada, Tennessee, and New Mexico.
Mr. Kerry continues a strong season on the campaign trail as the war for the White House enters a new phase. In the past, Mr. Kerry had benefited not from the power of his own personality or compelling platform of programs, but rather by the political troubles Mr. Bush has suffered as Commander in Chief because of military setbacks in Iraq, or because of the sluggish economy, or by the electricity generated by the addition of John Edwards to the team.
This newest edition of the poll, however, comes as Mr. Kerry was the focus of a concentrated four-day program at the convention. There’s not much movement in the polls, but that wasn’t expected because there are abnormally low numbers of undecided voters in this race.
Republicans tried to push up expectations that Mr. Kerry would get a big bounce coming out of the convention so that later on, when that bounce didn’t materialize, it would reflect negatively on the Democratic nominee. It is still unclear whether that tactic worked.
The two candidates continued to canvass the nation raising boatloads of campaign cash, much of it for their political parties instead of their own campaigns, with the unspoken understanding that the parties would then turn around and spend that money advertising or otherwise aiding the election of their Presidential candidate. In battleground states this weekend, Mr. Kerry’s advertising campaign went off the air, and the next day, the Democratic National Committee’s slate of commercials began.
So intense is the battle in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania that the Bush and Kerry campaigns almost passed on Interstate 70 Saturday in western Pennsylvania, as Mr. Bush motored east after stumping in Cleveland, Canton, and Cambridge, Ohio, and Mr. Kerry was headed west to campaign in Zanesville, Ohio.
Their motorcades are so large and disruptive to highway traffic that it's
probably good news for the economy that they didn’t meet.
Pollster John Zogby: "Kerry had a good week and the numbers reflect it --especially in West Virginia, New Hampshire, and Florida. These represent his bump in the Electoral College. Meanwhile, President Bush has improved in a few states, notably Ohio where he has widened his lead. Ohio is a must win for Bush.
"These numbers track well with our national telephone sampling after the convention, where Kerry now leads by 5 points -- 48% to 43%.
"It will shortly be time for the Republicans to convene their convention in New York. The President will get a small bump, but -- like Kerry -- not a big one. There is just not enough give this year.”
Why is Zogby the only one to show Kerry leading?
DNC.......always has a ........'Con'-vention....
/sarcasm
(The 3 commandments)
interactive = worthless
Feel that spin. Whew! Tornado warning.
Terrible electorial numbers
Zogby = Arafat's and DNC operative
Spin? What is spin? It depends on what the meaning of spin is. You can practially see the beads of sweat on their foreheads when they write this stuff.
Irrelevant electoral numbers. Utterly irrelevant. This is an interactive poll. Repeat after me "INTERACTIVE." It is not scientific. People self select whether to answer, so samples fluctuate from 75% Dem to 30% Dem. It's ridiculous.
Zogby had some good press in the beginning, but he's just another part of the DNC now
Zogby completely blew the 2002 election. He doesn't like Bush and although prior to 2002 his record was good, I do not think he is objective.
I have not been been able to figure out how to participate in this poll. Is there a link?
Read below. Zogby has been doing this interactive stuff, I think to get his name in the papers.
Spin.
Not that I know of. I don't know how I came to be on the poll, but I didn't respond several times, then it dawned on me what it was, so I did respond. I haven't been polled since.
Not that I know of. I don't know how I came to be on the poll, but I didn't respond several times, then it dawned on me what it was, so I did respond. I haven't been polled since.
I'm prety sure there's a link somewhere on zogby.com's front page. You sign up and they send you an email once overy week or two with a URL to the latest questions.
"Please note that this chart reflects the race based on the premise that the 34 states not included in the poll will fall to the candidate of the same party to which they fell in 2000"
"Please note that this chart reflects the race based on the premise that the 34 states not included in the poll will fall to the candidate of the same party to which they fell in 2000."
How utterly scientific! They are assuming a result for over half the states without a single poll number to back it up?
GMTA
Maybe because he's a Muslim Democrat?
Too bad somebody didn't tell McAuliffe that a bump in the polls wasn't expected. Then he wouldn't have made a fool of himself on national TV by predicting a 8-10 point bump.
Zogby was the pollster for Golisano in his NY governor's campaign. He lied to Golisano all the way up to the end, telling the man he was doing just fine.
***************
Zogby International's "Zogby Interactive," is the Internet and Interactive extension of the famous Zogby International organization, is excited to provide you this opportunity and outlet to express your own unique views, hopes and opinions on an array of topics.
Please take a moment to fill out our online registration form.
Register Today!
Zogby Wants You!
"Those states are Missouri (11 votes)..."
If Zogby is thinking Kerry is going to pick up Missouri, I have to say my sense is that he is way off base.
I've always suspected that an ingredient in the 'special sauce' is Kool-Aid.
I actually do his survey. I'm trying to counter the lefties who take it. LOL! Obviously, there aren't enough of us. :-)
As far as I know, Zogby is the only guy who reports an Internet poll as "news."
Zogby is an Arab Muslim..
I hardly think he is unbiased in his observations...
Semper Fi
I'm on their email list and take the Zogby poll. Lie every time too. Zogby = Horse %hit.
its a dead heat right now - and it will go down to the wire.
I saw a DU thread that recruited D-rats to participate in Zogby Interactive a few days go. You can bet they know the link.
No.. Kerry is dead meat right now and his campaign is going down.
overconfidence will not help. there is a long way to go, the DNC has some last minute surprises ready to go. remember the DUI incident in 2000.
OK, I looked at the registration form. That's ridiculous. I have no desire to be on a marketing list with detailed information concerning my political views. There are some obvious sampling issues here.
Why are these results being reported at all? And why on realclearpolitics.com?
Who is paying the subscription price to get these results early?
It's an online interactive.........ahhh nevermind. Read the rest of the thread.
The rats have thrown everything at Bush but the kitchen sink and it hasn't knocked him down yet. One attempted terror attack or actual attack before the election will disarm kerry and stop the back-biting. Events will decide this election and I don't think they will benefit kerry.
Yes he did, on his last poll taken on Monday before Election Day. All the others polls he took in the year 2000 were not at all accurate.
In 2002 Zogby was very wrong in his polls and he missed most of the GOP victories, in particular in the Senate.
In the two and only real Democrats primaries in 2004 Zogby was way off in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Zogby can easily skew his polls the way he wants. He has a group of participants that he knows very well their political leanings. He polls them on the internet via “Zogby interactive polls”. He can poll at anytime more Democrats than Republicans or poll more independent leaning Democrats and skew the polls toward the Democrat very easily.
Zogby is a Democrat, period. All his polls are biased toward the Democrats by a minimum of 5 points.
However I will tell you that in the last few polls before the election he will try to get more accurate so he can protect his reputation.
You determine who you'll trust for your reasons, and I'll do the same..
9/11 has "happened" since 2000 - and since then, I have seen little reason to "trust" Muslims.
Semper Fi
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.