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AP Poll: Kerry Narrows Security Issue Gap [Kerry 48% Bush 45% with Nader]
NY Times ^ | August 7, 2004

Posted on 08/06/2004 7:23:26 PM PDT by RWR8189

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Democrat John Kerry, whose nominating convention highlighted his war service and focused on national security, has narrowed the gap on President Bush's strong suit of protecting the country, according to an Associated Press poll that shows the race remains tight.

Flanked by his Vietnam crewmates, Kerry delivered an acceptance speech last week laden with references to patriotism, his decorated military record and his qualifications for commander in chief -- a theme underscored by speaker after speaker over the four-day gathering.

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The images and rhetoric registered with a number of voters.

In the AP survey conducted Tuesday through Thursday, 43 percent said Kerry would do a better job of protecting the country -- a gain of 8 percentage points for the Democratic presidential nominee from a similar survey in March.

Kerry improved his standing on the issue with a demographic group that tends to lean Republican: men under age 45.

Bush still has the advantage on the issue, with 52 percent saying the Republican incumbent would do better in protecting the nation. But Bush's percentage on the issue has dropped 6 percentage points since March, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs, and the latest survey was taken as he faced questions about dated intelligence for increased terror alerts.

Edison Montgomery, a 59-year-old Democrat from Lancaster, Ohio, said that after watching the convention he has grown more comfortable with Kerry -- especially on whether he is capable of protecting the nation.

``He seems like he's got a good head on his shoulders,'' Montgomery said.

Despite the gains for the Democratic challenger, Bush and Kerry remained essentially tied in the presidential race -- an outcome similar to where they've been for months.

In a three-way matchup, Kerry and running mate John Edwards have the backing of 48 percent, Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney 45 percent and independent Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo 3 percent among registered voters.

The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

In July, Bush had a slight lead over Kerry -- 49 percent to 45 percent -- with 3 percent backing Nader.

Kerry also improved his standing in state polls in two swing states -- Florida and New Hampshire -- pulling slightly ahead of Bush since the convention, according to the American Research Group.

Although Bush's ratings have dipped in other areas, including his stewardship of the war in Iraq and his handling of the economy, 51 percent still approve of the president's handling of the war on terrorism to 48 percent who disapprove in the AP poll.

``I don't think Kerry's ready to be president,'' said Laura Weber, a 37-year-old Republican from Pierre, S.D. ``Bush would be more decisive.''

The economy has been improving in fits and starts but continues to be a troublesome issue for Bush. Fewer than half -- 46 percent -- said they approve of the Republican's handling of the economy, about the same percentage as July.

Kerry held a clear advantage over Bush on the question of who would do better at creating jobs, with 55 percent naming Kerry and 39 percent saying Bush -- a number essentially unchanged from March.

The job numbers released Friday are likely to reinforce that perception.

New figures on job growth in July were far below analysts' predictions, with only 32,000 jobs being added -- a potentially troubling sign that the rough patch the economy hit in June was not an isolated problem despite 11 consecutive months of jobs growth. Analysts were expecting the economy to add anywhere from 215,000 to 247,000 jobs in July.

All total, 1.1 million jobs have been lost since Bush took office in January 2001.

``We have a long way to go on jobs,'' said Cara Easterly, a 37-year-old Democrat from the Seattle area. ``I don't think Bush is focused on the problem. He's more focused on what's going on outside the country.''

Strong support for Bush and Kerry now is about even, with 32 percent saying they are backers of the Republican and 31 percent saying their candidate is Kerry. In July, Bush was slightly ahead of Kerry in intensity of support.

``I think President Bush has done an excellent job,'' said Linda Roberts, a conservative Republican from Liberal, Kan. ``He's a Christian. I don't believe there's any reason to kill babies by abortion. I don't believe in gay marriage. I believe he is for equal rights, but also for God's rights.''

The AP-Ipsos poll surveyed 1,001 adults, including 798 registered voters.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; ap; apipsos; bush; bushreelected; chair; democrats; fan; globe; house; ipsos; kerry; mediabias; owl; poll; polls; raisin; republicans; snake

1 posted on 08/06/2004 7:23:27 PM PDT by RWR8189
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To: KQQL; ambrose

ping


2 posted on 08/06/2004 7:23:54 PM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: RWR8189

Who do you think the 203 adults will vote for?*LOL*


3 posted on 08/06/2004 7:25:52 PM PDT by woodyinscc
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To: dvwjr

ping


4 posted on 08/06/2004 7:27:30 PM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: RWR8189
AP Poll: Kerry Narrows Security Issue Gap [Kerry 48% Bush 45%]

yeah, sure buddy...

5 posted on 08/06/2004 7:27:33 PM PDT by SunStar (Democrats piss me off!)
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To: RWR8189

Very misleading title.

"Bush still has the advantage on the issue, with 52 percent saying the Republican incumbent would do better in protecting the nation"


6 posted on 08/06/2004 7:27:38 PM PDT by dawn53
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To: SunStar

Also, notice its 1,000 polled with 700 registered voters and the rest just adults. At this point, you have to look at likely voters. Any poll at this point that includes just "adults" in the sample is intentionally misleading.


7 posted on 08/06/2004 7:29:43 PM PDT by CWW (John Edwards -- Democrat and Whore Trial Lawyer)
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To: RWR8189

Yeah, sure he does.
Funny how all these polls show Kerry leading two days after the Swiftvet onslaught.
No hand-wringers here, thank you very much.
Wait a week.


8 posted on 08/06/2004 7:29:46 PM PDT by mabelkitty
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To: dawn53

I probably should have clarified that Kerry 48 Bush 45 was the horserace numbers.


9 posted on 08/06/2004 7:30:10 PM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: dawn53
The headline is pure clintonspeak.

No bearing on reality whatsoever!

10 posted on 08/06/2004 7:30:10 PM PDT by OldFriend (IF IT'S KERRY.....HELL IS ON THE WAY)
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To: RWR8189

BS... Kerry should have a 10 to 20 pt lead... instead its a dead heat. And that's BEFORE the GOP convention opens at the end of the month. All those atmospherics - I mean flag waving and patriotic sentiments and pretty speeches didn't put him where he wanted to be. And not even AP with its polling spin can change the fact the Democratic presidential candidate hasn't had a good week, let alone dramatically improved his standing in the polls.


11 posted on 08/06/2004 7:31:51 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: RWR8189

Not bad considering. We need a good convention from Bush and Rove.


12 posted on 08/06/2004 7:33:38 PM PDT by COURAGE (A charter member of the Grim FReeper Club)
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To: RWR8189
Flanked by his Vietnam crewmates, Kerry delivered an acceptance speech last week laden with references to patriotism, his decorated military record and his qualifications for commander in chief -- a theme underscored by speaker after speaker over the four-day gathering.

I simply cannot understand how supposedly the majority of Americans want a liberal like Kerry in the White House. We are less than three years out from 9-11, and the most liberal ticket in US history is about to be elected?? I just don't get it.

Are the majority of people so gullible that they will swallow the Dem fake patriotism, etc., put on at their convention. Since when in the last 40 years have Democrats protected the security of the nation? All the convention talked about was Kerry's 4 months in Vietnam, nothing about his actions when he returned or his many years in the Senate.

I just can't help to think the public isn't that easily fooled.

13 posted on 08/06/2004 7:47:23 PM PDT by Lawgvr1955 (Kerry: Dukakis Lite)
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To: RWR8189

I'll never get it! How a slime ball like Kerry wins the hearts of a Christian nation. While a strong leader, honest man, like Bush comes in second, or whatever, but a loser. What is happening to our nation. We will pay a terrible price if this continues.


14 posted on 08/06/2004 7:51:43 PM PDT by Joee
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To: All

All those who called or emailed today to volunteer to register voters in GOP neighborhoods, raise your hands.

I was told some are reluctant to volunteer because they fear that will put them in a data base and they'll be hit up for donations. Well, you can ask for that not to happen. Also, if they ask for donations and you don't want to donate, don't.

But you must call and volunteer, hopefully in a battleground state. This is the time frame when elections are decided because the deadline for registration in some states is approaching.

Do it. If we lose in November, you'll hate yourself for not doing your best to help.


15 posted on 08/06/2004 8:24:55 PM PDT by Owen
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To: RWR8189

Without the breakdown of Republicans, Rats, and Others, it is impossible to know if this poll is just another push poll that has oversampled Democrats (like 80% of polls do) or is more accurate. I vote for option 1.


16 posted on 08/06/2004 8:31:00 PM PDT by COEXERJ145
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To: RWR8189

AP is as biased as it gets. Their Polls can not be trusted.


17 posted on 08/06/2004 8:48:58 PM PDT by etradervic (Kerry is a Left Wing Dinosaur)
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To: Joee

We are becoming polarized. The majority of Christians are for Bush.


18 posted on 08/06/2004 9:03:55 PM PDT by AUsome Joy
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To: RWR8189

Registered voters - 'nough said......


19 posted on 08/06/2004 9:22:22 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: COURAGE

What is a matter with you and your obsession with Rove? Rove isn't running for President, Bush is. The campaign is ultimately Bush's responsibility, whoever he should choose to run it.

I can't believe all this bed wetting over polls like this one that include 20% opinions of people that aren't registered to vote. I mean that literally, I cannot and do not believe these posters are legit. The people that are willing to back up their opinion with cash are still saying Bush will win. http://geekmedia.org/tradesports/

The sky is falling crowd should should put their money where their mouth is and go offer up 10,000 shares of Bush at below price for quick sale over at tradesports.com.


20 posted on 08/06/2004 9:45:23 PM PDT by shempy (EABOF)
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To: RWR8189

All the more reason to support the Swift Boat Vets for Truth. It is amazing how the big leftist lie about Viet Nam has become central to this race.


21 posted on 08/06/2004 9:48:13 PM PDT by AmericanVictory (Should we be more like them, or they like us?)
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To: RWR8189

Yeah right. I want to see how they asked this question.


22 posted on 08/06/2004 9:50:39 PM PDT by ladyinred (What if the hokey pokey IS what it's all about?)
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To: RWR8189
Edison Montgomery, a 59-year-old Democrat from Lancaster, Ohio, said that after watching the convention he has grown more comfortable with Kerry -- especially on whether he is capable of protecting the nation.

``He seems like he's got a good head on his shoulders,'' Montgomery said.

You call this a good head?

23 posted on 08/06/2004 10:04:48 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY ((((FrankenKerry for President of Transylvania))))
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To: Joee

Relax!


24 posted on 08/06/2004 11:04:09 PM PDT by ChiMark
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To: RWR8189

Ap polls like the FIeld Poll or the LA SLimes polls tend to be skewed left..what is the point of posting them any more...Even the headline is misleading...should say MAJORITY BELIEVE BUSH IS THE MAN


25 posted on 08/06/2004 11:53:04 PM PDT by jnarcus
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To: RWR8189; ambrose; Torie; NYC Republican

Kerry leads Bush 48 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, Time said. The poll of 1,202 adults included 1,001 registered voters of whom 758 are likely voters. It was conducted by telephone Aug. 3-5 and the margin of error is 4 percentage points.

In a Time poll conducted in mid-July, Kerry led by 46 percent to 43 percent with 5 percent supporting Nader.




In the post-convention IBD/TIPP poll taken Aug. 2 to 5 among 841 registered voters, Sen. John Kerry leads President Bush 45% to 42% in a three-way race, with independent Ralph Nader getting 5%.

In an IBD/TIPP pre-convention poll, Kerry led 44% to 42%, with Nader at 3%. This amounts to a one-point convention bounce.

In a head-to-head race, Kerry leads Bush 49% to 43% compared with 46%-43% before the convention — a bounce of three points.

In the post-convention poll, Kerry's standing among Democrats improved by 13 points. But he lost four points among Republicans and 15 among independent voters.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/general01.asp?v=8/6


26 posted on 08/07/2004 11:16:02 AM PDT by KQQL
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To: dvwjr

Look like W is @ 43-45% V Kerry @ 46% -49% in all polls except Gallup


27 posted on 08/07/2004 11:20:00 AM PDT by KQQL
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To: KQQL

Update on Bush

Bush's ratings are little changed in past few weeks. His overall job approval ratings continues to hover at the 50% level (50% approve, 46% disapprove), the same as our previous poll's finding of 50%-47%. His weak spots remain the economy and Iraq.

Senator John Kerry leads President Bush among likely voters by a margin of 48% to 43%, with Ralph Nader running at 4%. Kerry's lead has risen only slightly from immediately before the Democratic Convention, when polls found him edging out Bush by 46% - 43%, with Nader at 5%.
http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,678367,00.html


28 posted on 08/07/2004 11:25:18 AM PDT by KQQL
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Updated Numbers :

My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
------
Right now W's average approval ratings is 47.5% from last 8 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.

So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.

W/O Nader
Bush 48.0%
Kerry 51.0%
Others 1.0%

Bush 48.0%
Kerry 50.0%
Nader 1.3%
Others 0.7%

MOE+/-1%


29 posted on 08/07/2004 11:35:33 AM PDT by KQQL
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UpDATE 2(W/Zogby numbers)


My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
------
Right now W's average approval ratings is 47.1% from last 9 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.

So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.

W/O Nader
Bush 47.6%
Kerry 51.4%
Others 1.0%

Bush 47.6%
Kerry 50.4%
Nader 1.3%
Others 0.7%

MOE+/-1%


30 posted on 08/07/2004 11:46:40 AM PDT by KQQL
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To: ChiMark

"relax" I will but my blood pressure won't!!!!


31 posted on 08/07/2004 2:22:02 PM PDT by Joee
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To: RWR8189
This is laughable. Is it because he said he would run a more "sensitive" war on terror? What does that mean? SEAL teams that are not afraid to cry?

Its August and Republicans across America are on vacation and the GOP will not poll well until the week of the convention. People in the biz know this.

32 posted on 08/08/2004 10:25:09 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator (This space outsourced to India)
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