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Frozen Conflicts: Time to Challenge Russia
Transitions Online ^ | 9 August 2004 | Robert Cottrell

Posted on 08/10/2004 5:13:11 AM PDT by A. Pole

The frozen conflicts in Moldova and the southern Caucasus are becoming top-level issues—and if the EU and the next U.S. president apply the right pressure, Russia will change its position.

To call South Ossetia a "rebel region" or a "breakaway province" of Georgia flatters it with the language of political struggle. Better to think of it as a Russian-backed smuggling racket with a large piece of land attached. The sooner the land returns to Georgian control, the better for everyone. Georgia has an interest in South Ossetia's peace and prosperity. Russia has none.

Of the four "frozen conflicts" in the Black Sea region, that of South Ossetia has the merit of being the most straightforward. The separatist "government" now in place there has nothing to be said for it at all, whatever the factors that sent South Ossetia to war with Tbilisi more than a decade ago. The presence of Russian "peacekeeping" forces, backing up the South Ossetian authorities, ensures the continuation, not resolution, of this conflict within Georgia.

The case of Transdniester, in Moldova, is almost as straightforward. There, too, Russian troops and Russian diplomacy prop up an illegal separatist regime that divides and cripples the country. They obstruct, rather than facilitate, a constitutional settlement giving Transdniester extensive autonomy, to which Moldova would readily subscribe.

A third frozen conflict, over Abkhazia, another rebel province of Georgia, is comparable to that in Transdniester. Abkhazia's history also gives it a more persuasive claim to some form of special political status. Georgia is ready to talk. But, again, by sponsoring and protecting an Abkhaz government that appears to live mainly off smuggling, Russia obstructs a better solution.

The fourth frozen conflict, over Nagorno-Karabakh, is different again. Russia has an influence here, but so far a more constructive one, as Armenia’s main political ally. Karabakh, an Armenian-populated part of Azerbaijan, has formed a de facto union with Armenia since winning a war of secession from Azerbaijan in 1994. The absence of a permanent settlement stunts the economic and political development of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and leaves both vulnerable to fresh waves of nationalism and militarism.

TOP-LEVEL PROBLEMS…

At long last, these four frozen conflicts look set to attract the attention they deserve--which is a step toward solving them. There are several reasons for making this guardedly optimistic claim.

One is the election of President Mikheil Saakashvili in Georgia, following last November's "rose revolution" when crowds fed up with corruption and vote-rigging drove out Eduard Shevardnadze.

Previously, the Caucasus had had no leader capable of capturing America's attention, still less its enthusiasm. (Shevardnadze had, at most, the sympathies of some Washington veterans, not for his record in Georgia but for his earlier role as Gorbachev's foreign minister.)

Saakashvili has the charm and energy of youth, the advantage of good English, and a clear commitment to liberal democracy, which he proposes to apply to the whole of his country. His arrival on the scene, his popularity, and his policies offer living proof that things can go right in the southern Caucasus. That matters a lot to foreign policymakers, who need to believe that success is at least possible before they get involved in any problem.

A second factor that may help thaw the frozen conflicts is the decline of Western confidence in Russia. Until now the West has allowed Russia the lead role in managing (or, rather, mismanaging) the problems of Moldova and the Caucasus. But the Yukos case, together with the continuing Chechen War and President Vladimir Putin's suppression of free broadcast media, have persuaded Western governments that Russia is moving away from them in its political values and toward more authoritarian ones. They cannot trust its intentions, as they tried to do when Putin came to power.

President George Bush's freedom to review his Russian policy has been hampered by his absurd declaration three years ago that he saw into Vladimir Putin's soul and knew he could trust the man. But, embarrassing as it may be for Bush personally, the U.S.-Russia relationship has been getting so much less trusting over the past year or two that a new and tougher U.S. policy can only be a matter of time. The United States will certainly move in that direction if John Kerry wins this year's presidential election and if his administration begins, as new administrations usually do, with a skeptical review of the policies of its predecessor; and it will probably do so if Bush wins and appoints a new secretary of state.

A third factor pushing frozen conflicts up the transatlantic policy agenda is the eastward enlargement of NATO and the European Union, coupled with the heightened U.S. interest--after 9/11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq--in what it calls the Greater Middle East, with Turkey at its northwestern corner.

Moldova and the countries of the southern Caucasus suddenly find themselves a center of strategic interest. They are neighbors of NATO and future neighbors of the EU. As such, their stability must be watched and nourished. They are a platform for displaying and projecting Western values to the south and east.

The fact that Europe and America now have a clear reason to want these countries as reliable allies gives an equally compelling reason to want an end to the frozen conflicts, which destabilize these countries from within while also posing wider threats. A recent study from the U.S.-based German Marshall Fund describes the conflict zones as "unresolved fragments of Soviet Empire [which] now serve as shipping points for weapons, narcotics, and victims of human trafficking, as breeding grounds for transnational organized crime, and last but not least, for terrorism."*

… DESERVE TOP-LEVEL DIPLOMACY

Of all the frozen conflicts, it is Karabakh that has so far come closest to a solution, in 2001. The Azeri president of the day, Heidar Aliev, died before he had quite overcome his hesitations, but the broad outlines of a deal remain clear to both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Broadly speaking, Azerbaijan would cede Karabakh to Armenia. In exchange, Azerbaijan would get back other territories that Armenia has occupied since the civil war, plus a narrow corridor of land across Armenia, giving Azerbaijan access to its exclave of Nakhichevan, which is wedged between Armenia and Iran.

The deal will be done when Ilham Aliev, the new president of Azerbaijan, has the self-confidence to do it--unless Russia interferes, worrying that peace and stability would draw Armenia, its main ally in the southern Caucasus, too close to the West. Russia could use its considerable military and economic leverage within Armenia to that end; or it might hint at tilting its foreign relations in favor of Azerbaijan, reawakening Armenia’s fears.

Karabakh is a special case. Russia's role there is important, but secondary. For the other three frozen conflicts, persuading Russia to cooperate will be three-quarters of the work needed to find a solution: the regimes in Transdniester, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia survive thanks only to Russian military and diplomatic support.

Russia is not making it easy. As it retreats from democracy, so its political workings become more opaque, and its true intentions even harder to discern. But whatever the mix of signals Russia sends out, they have one fairly constant theme. It is the desire for respect and authority in the world. So this is the front on which the West should challenge Russia.

The West should tell Putin, directly and preferably publicly, that Russia's proclamations against crime and terrorism and secessionism elsewhere in the world cannot be taken seriously as long as Russia goes on sponsoring criminal regimes that undermine regional security and cripple legitimate governments in its own back yard. It should say that the miserable bit of local leverage that Russia gets from manipulating the frozen conflicts in Georgia and Moldova is far less than the wider respect and authority that it forfeits by doing so.

The West needs to put the case in exactly those blunt terms if it wants to make Russia shift its position. Untruth and evasion are an integral part of Russian foreign policy. Challenging those untruths and evasions is the necessary first step toward changing the realities they obscure.

Russia will shift its position, if pressed in the right way, because Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdniester don’t really matter very much to it in the end. A few crooks in Russia profit from their rebellion commercially, and a few nationalists in the Russian Duma politically. But they are not worth much of Putin's political capital. If these problems can be taken to the top, they will be settled more easily than by argument at lower levels, where narrow lobbies fight their corners.

This top-level diplomacy will be a job mainly for the United States, whose president can command Putin's attention in a way no European leader can. But the European Union has much complementary work to do.

First, the EU must echo America's political message. Second, it must follow through on the idea of its "New Neighborhood" policy, offering the Black Sea countries more access to EU markets and more EU aid, in exchange for good-government reforms. Third, it must use its leverage with Turkey, a candidate for EU membership, to persuade Turkey to normalize relations with Armenia. If Turkey were to reopen its borders to Armenia, which it closed as a gesture of support for Azerbaijan, it would reduce Armenia's siege-induced dependence on Russia, give Armenia's economy a boost, and so encourage conditions for a Karabakh peace deal.

An argument with Russia over the frozen conflict zones will be doubly worth having, because by winning it, and by helping Georgia and Moldova emerge as normal countries, the West will help Russia, too. It can only improve Russia's security and prosperity to have strong and settled states on its borders. Russia half-knows that, too, but needs to be prodded into acting on it. The year or two of hard haggling needed for the West to change Russia's behavior would be time well-spent.

* see: "A New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea Region," ed. R Asmus, K Dimitrov, J Forbrig; GMF, 2004; Page 21. The book is also available in PDF.

Robert Cottrell is The Economist's correspondent for Central and Eastern Europe, and a member of TOL’s advisory board. A former Moscow correspondent for The Economist and for the Financial Times, he visited Georgia and Armenia in July.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Russia; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: caucasus; europe; islam; moldova; russia; war

1 posted on 08/10/2004 5:13:12 AM PDT by A. Pole
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To: ninenot; sittnick; steve50; Hegemony Cricket; Willie Green; Wolfie; ex-snook; FITZ; arete; ...

Bump


2 posted on 08/10/2004 5:14:09 AM PDT by A. Pole (Gen Ripper:"I cannot allow communist infiltration, to sap and impurify, our precious bodily fluids.")
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To: A. Pole

I have a different take on the situation. It's time that Washington buried the hatchet with Russia. I suggest increasing economic ties and trade, and giving them a green light to do what they have to do to pacify their rebel Muslim regions.


3 posted on 08/10/2004 5:15:39 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: A. Pole
If Turkey were to reopen its borders to Armenia, which it closed as a gesture of support for Azerbaijan, it would reduce Armenia's siege-induced dependence on Russia

The problem is that Turks were mortal enemies of Armenians and Russians were the vital friends. There is not way to "unfreeze" these facts.

4 posted on 08/10/2004 5:23:49 AM PDT by A. Pole (Gen Ripper:"I cannot allow communist infiltration, to sap and impurify, our precious bodily fluids.")
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To: A. Pole

But is that not what the West did in Bosnia an Kosovo and Macedonia and so on? The hypocracy of the west sickens me - do as we say not as we do.


5 posted on 08/10/2004 6:38:44 AM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting www.johnathangaltfilms.com)
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To: A. Pole

Some conflicts are best left frozen.

6 posted on 08/10/2004 4:12:53 PM PDT by struwwelpeter
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To: struwwelpeter

7 posted on 08/10/2004 10:17:58 PM PDT by klpt
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