Skip to comments.AOL Poll Shows Bush Winning 48 State Landslide (John F*ckin Carries Only Vermont and D.C)
Posted on 08/12/2004 12:15:26 AM PDT by goldstategop
ELECTION 2004 AOL poll: Bush wins in landslide Unscientific survey indicates president collecting 48 States
In what some political observers might view as shocking news, a poll of America Online members is currently forecasting a landslide victory for President Bush, who collects 48 of the 50 states in this year's electoral race.
The unscientific survey, whose results change in real time as more people vote, reveals with more than 34,000 participants, Bush takes a whopping 58 percent of the popular vote compared to 40 percent for Sen. John Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader.
According to AOL's electoral map of the United States, there's a massive sea of red marked in favor of the Republican president, while only two states Connecticut and Vermont, along with the District of Columbia are marked in blue for the Democrat from Massachusetts.
That's a total of just 13 electoral votes for Kerry, compared to 525 for Bush. The magic number of electoral votes to win the White House is 270 .
"I find voters are blinded by their hatred of Bush and ignore the true issues," wrote AOL member Tarraballa on a messageboard related to the poll. "That is scary to me. Kerry may be winning in the war of 'hating Bush,' but he is not the best man for president. Do you honestly want Kerry in office when 9-11 hits again? I wouldn't."
Another member, Rme22567, took Bush to task for the past four years.
"He is treasonous, traitorous, too cowardly to even go to his cushy stateside assignment during Vietnam, and is the single most evil and incompetent, hateful president ever. Impeachment alone is too easy a sentence, he needs life in prison and should be charged with 928 counts of murder on U.S. soldiers."
AOL's interactive map allows users to click on each state, and view the total number of votes for that state.
For instance, in California, the biggest prize with 55 electoral votes, there was a virtual tie between Bush and Kerry, though the president had a razor-thin 39-vote margin as of 12:20 a.m. Eastern time this morning. Thus, California was counted in the Bush column. Ralph Nader got 2 percent of the California vote, though he has not made it onto the Golden State's ballot yet.
According to AOL voters, Kerry is not even carrying his home state of Massachusetts, where Bush takes 51 percent of ballot-casters.
While no one from AOL returned WorldNetDaily's request to comment on its straw poll by press time, the Internet service provider says on its site that each month, the voting starts over for candidates, and that AOL members are allowed to vote once per month.
Conceivably, someone with more than one screen name could cast more than one ballot, but such a "vote early and vote often" technique is open to people of more than one political persuasion.
AOL's giant red map is reminiscent of the USA Today map showing results from the presidential race four years ago, where Bush won the electoral vote, despite losing the popular vote to Al Gore.
Year 2000 map of election returns. Counties won by Bush appear in red. Gore's counties appear in blue. (source: USA Today)
The 2000 map shows a county-by-county breakdown, with red areas supporting Bush, and blue regions backing Gore. The final tally had Bush winning 2,434 counties nationwide to Gore's 677. The population of the Bush counties was 143 million as opposed to Gore's of 127 million.
Though the 2000 race was among the closest ever, sweeping landslides in presidential elections are not unheard of.
Ronald Reagan won 49 states in 1984
In 1984, Republican Ronald Reagan won 49 states, while his opponent, Democrat Walter Mondale, took only his home state of Minnesota.
In 1972, Republican Richard Nixon won 49 states, while Democrat George McGovern collected only Massachusetts.
The last time a Democrat saw such sweeping landslides was in 1940 and 1944, when Franklin Roosevelt collected more than 400 electoral votes against Republicans Wendell Wilkie and Thomas Dewey, respectively.
During this year's political season, professional pollsters using scientific methodology have shown a close race between Bush and Kerry.
A Gallup survey following the recent Democratic convention had Bush receiving 50 percent support among likely voters, and Kerry with 47 percent. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry held a 50-47 lead.
According to a poll published Aug. 5 by Rasmussen Reports, Kerry held an electoral lead over Bush of 228-197, with 113 votes listed as toss-ups.
Rasmussen also puts out a daily tracking poll on the presidential contest, and yesterday's results had Kerry leading the incumbent in the popular vote 49 to 46 percent.
Watch there be an huge earthquake in California right before the election!
They'll blame it on Bush, no doubt.
AOL members? There are people still using this crap called AOL?
Now, I'm as optimistic that Bush will win as the next person. However, this poll...is pretty much crap if you ask me. Every poll, from SurveyUSA to Gallup, has the race close. Now, these polls may not be the most accurate out there (especially if they over sample Democrats over Republicans), but still, they are CERTAINLY more accurate then any internet poll out there (polls that can be skewed by either Freepers or DUers). And one restricted to AOL members certainly doesn't add to the accuracy.
First, that map shows who voted for Arnold vs. Bustamonte. NOT for who voted for the recall. If you had that map, it would show a few more counties voting for the Recall. Including LA county.
Still, it is true that, without the Bay Area (and LA country), California would be a conservative state. But as you know, the Bay Area and LA county are BOTH the most populated areas of the state.
Now, it isn't impossible that Bush could win (until the Iraq problems and the 9-11 commission stuff, polls were showing them even), I won't be holding my breath on it. After all, the Dems and Indys that voted for the recall, doesn't mean they will vote for Bush (it was an election against Davis, not Democrats).
Scrap CNN, Zogby, etc. for polling data. Go to TradeSports.com These people have no political ax to grind, they are, not to be too polite about it, bookies. Their electoral math has Bush/Cheney ahead, but only by 13-16 electorals. Pennsylvania and Ohio are going to be hugely important. Florida, I think Bush gets this time, but this margin makes even New Mexico big. Watch where the busses go and the candidates spend money.
Tonight on FOx they said it will take a mircle for Bush to win.
Things like this get us too complacent. I believe this as much as I believe Zogby.
This election will be CLOSE, and with the Democrat propensity to cheat and attempt to steal election by courts, allowing felons to vote, bribing the homeless and shutting out the military, we have to make sure Republican turnout is huge.
So not only do you need to vote, but bring your boys and talk to your co workers, neighbors and even the postman. Everyone must do their part on election day! We don't need to just win, we need to win by enough so that the Dim Rats can't try to steal it again. And this time, they even have the manufactured 'electroic screen' story and even European "observers" to try and give the election to Kerry through the courts.
Let your friends and family KNOW that we have to re-elect Big W. If you like your terrorists dead and your taxes low, you'll vote for GWB. If you don't, you won't.
They used to say that of Bush's father in 1988 when there was no FOX NEWS CHANNEL and the media was all liberal. Michael Dukakis led for awhile by double digit margins. Bush trounced him on Election Day by 12 percentage points.
Which ever way it goes, it will NOT be close. The winner will be elected in a walk. I don't buy the media's annointing Kerry the winner and AOL, which should have a preponderance of liberals, isn't even going for Kerry. Why won't the people in his own home state vote for him? That's the $64,000 one I'd like an answer to.
Every vote counts and it'll be almost as close as last time. There is nothing to be gained by deluding ourselves that W will win in a landslide. I think he will win but it'll be very close.
I respectfully disagree with you. A noted economist doesn't think it will be close and neither do most Americans. Kerry is quite simply a terrible candidate. That's not obvious now but it will be by Election Day. Stay tuned.
GOPers are simply more tech savvy. As a native New Yorker, I can tell you that there is not a chance in Hades that New York will vote for Bush. As state politics go, it is amazing that NY is able to even get RINOs like Pataki.
Okay.....who freeped this poll???
Don't you know that Rasmussen, Gallup, and CBS polls tell us we are a 50/50 nation.
Only "rich people" have computers and can vote in this poll and we know all rich people are Republicans!
Is it ALL GOP'ers? Then how do you explain him losing MA? Its a Democratic stronghold. In a worst case scenario, he should win it; heck even Mondull held onto Minnesota in 1984!
Considering the tilt of people on AOL, I'm surprised it did NOT show a Kerry romp. It turns out even Lefties don't like him that much. Those who are voting are voting AGAINST Bush NOT for Kerry. I have yet to see a liberal give us a POSITIVE REASON why they support their candidate.
If you trust this easily maniplated internet poll stuffed(if not Freeped) by our side, I have some beachfront property in Kansas for you to purchase.
If you believe all the voters in MA are Republicans, I'd love to sell you John Kerry's townhouse there.
As bad as Seattle is, Beacon Hill would be worse. Jean Kerre' can keep his townhouse.