I respectfully disagree with you. A noted economist doesn't think it will be close and neither do most Americans. Kerry is quite simply a terrible candidate. That's not obvious now but it will be by Election Day. Stay tuned.
I saw that article and my first thought was "Economists and Weathermen, how often are they right?"
I hope I'm wrong but I have felt since November of 2000 that the election in 2004 will be very, very close and I still think so.