Posted on 08/13/2004 8:37:12 AM PDT by anymouse
President Bush's job-approval rating, a key indicator of an incumbent's chance of being re-elected, has turned upward, the Gallup Poll finds.
The share of Americans who say they approve of the job Bush is doing inched over the 50% mark to 51%. No president who was at or above 50% at this point in an election year has lost.
Matthew Dowd, Bush's campaign strategist, said, "It looks like the American public is not near as pessimistic as Sen. Kerry is."
Bush's job-approval rating hit its low point, 46%, in May.
The poll finds the presidential race essentially tied: Bush leads Kerry 48%-46% among likely voters; independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) has 3%. The difference between Bush and Kerry is within the poll's error margin of +/{ndash}4 percentage points.
"We've said all along it's going to be a tight race," said Kerry campaign spokesman Chad Clanton.
The presidential race is as intense and combative now as it usually is in October of election years.
On Thursday, Bush charged his rival with turning a contentious environmental issue here into "a political poker chip."
In his 2000 campaign, Bush said "science, not politics," would determine whether he designated Nevada's Yucca Mountain as a depository for nuclear waste. As president, Bush approved the designation, recommended by the Energy Department, and Nevada opponents cried foul.
Kerry, in Nevada on Tuesday, said Bush broke his 2000 campaign promise. Kerry has voted for legislation that included provisions to allow nuclear dumps at Yucca, but in direct votes on whether to ship waste there, he voted no.
"My opponent's trying to turn Yucca Mountain into a political poker chip," Bush said. "He says he's strongly against Yucca here in Nevada, but he voted for it several times, and so did his running mate. ... If they're going to change, one day they may change again. I think you need straight talk."
Bush spoke at a training facility of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America, one of the few unions to support his tax cuts and other policies.
Later, in an interview on CNN's Larry King Live in Los Angeles, Bush declined to condemn a TV ad from at group of Vietnam War veterans questioning whether Kerry earned his Purple Hearts and other awards. "I haven't seen the ad, but what I do condemn is these unregulated, soft-money expenditures by very wealthy people. And they've said some bad things about me," he said. "I guess they're saying bad things about him."
Bush defended his decision to stay in a Florida classroom for several minutes on Sept. 11, 2001, after an aide told him about the terrorist attacks. Last week, Kerry said he would have told the students he needed to leave.
"I was collecting my thoughts," Bush said. "I made the decision there that we would let this part of the program finish, and then I would calmly stand up and thank the teacher and thank the children and go take care of business."
Bush was in Los Angeles for a party fundraiser. He shared a stage with California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who joked that he is organizing bodybuilders and "girly men" for Bush.
In an interview in the Los Angeles Times, Schwarzenegger said he's rethinking his insistence that he wouldn't campaign for Bush outside the state. "If there's a place, one place where they want to pop me in, this makes sense for me," Schwarzenegger said.
The Bushes had a private visit with former first lady Nancy Reagan at her home in Bel Air, Calif.
Pre-Convention bounce for President Bush?
Nah, post convention slide for Frenchy. Although the slide may go for quite a while
Bush win with 58%. My prediction.
I made the same prediction in 2000. I have since gotten out of the prediction business.
It's encouraging, but it's within the margin of error. Also note that it's too early to make a determination with that slim of a margin. Also the accuracy of telephone polling has diminished with caller id.
Hate to tell them, but Rasmussen has had Bush at over 50% for a couple of months, and at 53-52% for more than a week. (I think he slipped one day to 51%)
Every time Prick Morris shows up on O'reilly discussing how Bush is in trouble some poll always comes out and shows the opposite. I am curious about the timing of this poll. The Dems should launch an investigation!
Yeah... it'll go higher after the Convention to around 60% and then half of that 10 point bounce will disappear by late October. The President will be re-elected with 54-55% of the popular vote.
It just the more Kerry is in the Limelight the worse he looks...The media is protecting his fragile campaign....If they spent just 5 days attacking him this contest would be over......
I'll give GW a 3-4 % bump after the convention and going into the debates a slight lead which he will be able to solidify after smacking Kerry and his multi face postion approach to politics...
My prediction again is BUSH 51% Kerry 46 % come Spetember....
Wonderful news!
If the electorate would pay attention to what's being disclosed about Kerry (no thanks to the liberal media), Bush's approval rating would soar. Unfortunatly, no one wanted to hear the negative reports about Clinton either. They disregarded them and said "character doesn't matter."
Rather than a poll tax, maybe we should give an IQ test before someone can vote. (However, that would have eliminated all the "confused" voters in Florida.
The Kerry Edwards Convention did not have a bounce. In fact, it appears as if it was more like a implosion or crash. Reminds me of those old NASA films from the 1950's when the rockets would explode on the launchpad. I remember one rocket shot up slightly, then started spinning round and round until it crashed and exploded--STM Kerry-Edwards Campaign is that rocket.
There aren't 5 people in Nevada who'll vote for Kerry because of Yucca Mountain who otherwise would've voted for Bush.
I agree with you. My buddy, who is a political independent, was a little weary about the swift boat vets. He even said Kerry's record should not even be mentioned. But after Kerry had to "re-phrase" this Christmas in Cambodia incident he says Kerry is starting to sound like a liar. I'm sure millions of Americans are having the same feeling
You can yell at me or celebrate with me in Nov. I stand by it.
I agree, that Kerry needs more limelight. But I stand by my prediction. Time will tell.
Bookmarked.
Bush win with 58%. My prediction.
I made the same prediction in 2000. I have since gotten out of the prediction business.
My own gut feeling is that Bush will win comfortably. But with my track record, I wouldn't bet money on it.
I won't yell at you if Bush loses. But if he wins, I will be happy to celebrate with you -- once I get my fill of schadenfreude by watching the suicide watch at DU.
Has Morris EVER made a correct prediction? It seems to me he's always wrong and owing Bill O'Really a big dinner! Snicker.
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