CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)

NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

[Jeff400000]

000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[Ff--150]

got your rebuking shoes on =')???

[Izzy Dunne]

[eyespysomething]

looks headed to Ft Myers

In the last frames it turns decidly NE

[caddie]

LOL on the tagline.

Lots of expensive real estate in the path of the storm.

Hope the peeps get out of there.

[Pyro7480]

Thank goodness it's not going to impact CENTCOM too badly. However, my hopes are with the people who are in the path. May God spare them.

[Jeff400000]

If it hit there, there would be a 10+ foot storm surge heading up into those bays. Not good news down there.

[maestro]

Prayers

[EX52D]

I have family in Ft. Myers...getting nervous...

[Catspaw]

Charley has just been upgraded to a Category Four.

[gopwinsin04]

Drudge was talking 16-17 foot storm surge..

[eyespysomething]

Prayers for them going up.

Have you talked to them?

[dirtboy]

Charley has just been upgraded to a Category Four.

WHAT? That would be 135 mph winds.

[Dog]

I have family in Bonita Springs....a kid brother.

[paulsy]

rapid intensification. I hope everyone is out of there.

[Howlin]

It's a 4!!!! Just upgraded!

[Dog]

I heard CAT 4...

[Deport Billary]

I think this could play a role in the election. SW florida is conservative but this storm will be worse than anyone thought. The eye is tightening and flooding is going to be a disaster around Ft Myers and Port Charlotte...not to mention the wind damage all the way to jacksonville. There will be a lot of displaced people when it's over with.

[mewzilla]

Oh, boy. Prayers.

[EX52D]

No, I haven't. I just realized the path of the hurricane and feel a little uneasy, she's a senior citizen. I'll have to get in touch with family...thanks for the prayers!

[Jeff400000]

Where?

[OXENinFLA]

Yup, I just heard this too..............Going to be a Lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng night here in JAX.

We're not expected to get hit until 4am

[Constitution Day]

Holy crap

[Dog]

Bonita Springs..... south of Ft. Myers.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Hints for posters to this thread:

1) The joke about it should have been named Clyde(Bonnie and Clyde) has already been told 100 times, you weren't the first to come up with it X days ago

2) The 'Its Bush' fault' joke has also been run into the ground

3) Yeah, yeah, you're way to smart to live where there are hurricanes/earthquakes/tornadoes/forest fires/moral degradation/etc, no need to waste space with your spam

4) If you have to ask "Where is Port Charlotte?" you probably should refrain from telling people whether or not they are in danger, what they should do, where you are certain the hurricane will hit, and offering up 30 thread posts per hour

5) 2 dozen radar images slow down the thread, the first 2 or 3 will do, especially since 1 or more will update every time you refresh

[Strategerist]

They evacuated, right?

People who tried to stay and ride it out still have time to leave.

[RightWhale]

135 is enough speed so even cows can fly.

[gopwinsin04]

[Catspaw]

CNN just reported the upgrade to CAT 4. The weather channel is reporting that Charley will be upgraded because of higher winds detected (missed where--maybe near the eye).

[Jeff400000]

I just checked Fox and CNN.com and they both say cat 3, as does the NHC...

[OXENinFLA]

CAT4

[mewzilla]

I hope folks have plenty of potable water on hand. We lived through Agnes in '72, and getting potable water was a big problem for a few days.

[Constitution Day]

Per Drudge:

STORM TO BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITHIN THE HOUR... WINDS CLOCKED BY PLANE AT 165 MPH AT 10,000 FEET... GROUND WINDS HIT 145 MPH... MORE...

[EX52D]

I don't know yet, but knowing my family, she has a lot of people to make sure she's safe.

[Howlin]

Just upgraded in the LAST HOUR!

A CAT 4..........everybody get out!!

Charlie now a Cat 4 storm. 145 mph winds. New track is much more to East. Orlando - Lakeland directly in path. Much closer to Andrew like.

[Dog]

I just called my brother ..no answer I hope he has evac'ed

[Pyro7480]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AT 115 PM EDT...1715Z...A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 10000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 162 MPH AT A DISTANCE OF 8 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. THIS GIVES AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

LAWRENCE

[OXENinFLA]

I think this is going to qualify as my 1st BIG hurricane.

[Catspaw]

STORM TO BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITHIN THE HOUR... WINDS CLOCKED BY PLANE AT 165 MPH AT 10,000 FEET... GROUND WINDS HIT 145 MPH... MORE

That's a high CAT 4:

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

---

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane:

Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.

Category Two Hurricane:

Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 was a Category Two hurricane when it hit the North Carolina coast, while Hurricane Georges of 1998 was a Category Two Hurricane when it hit the Florida Keys and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Category Three Hurricane:

Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.

Category Four Hurricane:

Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.

Category Five Hurricane:

Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is one of the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclones of record.

[Strategerist]

Wonder when the person who was mocking the idea yesterday this would be critical to Bush's re-election or his #1 priority will show up.

I'd call several hundred thousand newly-homeless people in a key election state something demanding his attention.

[Dog]

It doesn't mean you apply for a Purple Heart.....:-)

[Jeff400000]

WOW! This one has the potential for rapid intensification like Alex...looks BAD down there.

[Constitution Day]

Whoa.

My dad's brother is in St. Pete; hope he and his wife are getting out of the way.

[OXENinFLA]

I just hope this dissipates quickly once it hits land.

[dead]

000
WTNT51 KNHC 131555
TCEAT
HURRICANE CHARLEY POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AT 12 PM EDT....1600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE/BROWN

[Strategerist]

It's going to miss Tampa/St. Petersburg, no doubt about it, at this point.

Port Charlotte and Ft. Myers are in danger of not existing anymore.

[Pyro7480]

Just damn alert! Charley now CATEGORY FOUR!!!!

[mlbford2]

Yeah, I was in Gainesville during Andrew. A bunch of people(~12) had a hurricane party and they all died. Hopefully they were too drunk to realize what was going on.

"If I wasn't so drunk I'd swear there was a 2x5 sticking out of my stomach. Hey, top me off dude."

[dirtboy]

My dad's brother is in St. Pete; hope he and his wife are getting out of the way.

Unless the storm jogs back to the left side of the current track, they'll be on the better side of the storm - where the winds are blowing offshore. But wind damage is suddenly becoming just as big a factor as storm surge.

[Catspaw]

My #2 sister's very close friend just moved to Largo--they evacuated yesterday. It's going to get very nasty.