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New Zogby Poll: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43%
Zogby ^ | 8/15/04

Posted on 08/15/2004 12:26:18 PM PDT by areafiftyone

Released: August 15, 2004

Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race; Voters With Passports Give Kerry 58%-35% Edge; Candidates in Dead Heat Among Investors; New Zogby America Poll Reveals

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is favored over President George W. Bush (47%-43%) among likely voters when Ralph Nader, Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1011 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (August 12-14, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.

Presidential Candidates %

Aug12-14

Democrat -John Kerry

47

Republican-George W. Bush

43

Independent-Ralph Nader

2

Libertarian-Michael Badnarik

1

Constitution-Michael Peroutka

.2

Green-David Cobb

.2

Other

.8

Undecided
7

The presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards gained two points since the Democratic National convention over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney and now leads by seven points (50%-43%).

Presidential Ticket %

Aug12-14

July 27-29

July 6-7

Kerry-Edwards

50

48

48

Bush-Cheney

43

43

46

Undecided

6

8

5

President Bush’s overall job performance rating moved up three points to 47%, with more than half of respondents continuing to express their disapproval.

George W. Bush

8/12-14

7/27-29

7/6-7

6/2-5

5/10-13

Approve

47

44

49

46

42

Disapprove

52

56

51

54

58

Undecided

1

0

0

0

0

The majority of respondents say that the country is headed on the wrong track (51%), while 42% feel the US is on the right track.

US Direction

8/12-14

7/27-29

7/6-7

6/2-5

5/ 10-13

Wrong

51

50

48

50

54

Right

42

41

47

44

40

Undecided

7

9

5

6

6

When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters responded positively, while the majority (53%) still says that it is "time for someone new."

George W. Bush

8/12-14

7/27-29

7/6-7

6/2-5

5/10-13

Re-Elect

43

42

43

43

42

Someone New

53

51

53

53

53

Undecided

4

7

4

5

6

As part of the Zogby-O’Leary Report Red and Blue States Monitor, in the Blues States, those won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 54% of support, as compared to Bush 37%. In the Red States, Bush is favored by 47%, while receives 41% support.

Presidential Ticket %

Blues States

Red States

Kerry

54

41

Bush

37

47

Undecided

6

6

Nearly one in three (31%) continue to identify jobs and the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (19%); the war in Iraq (14%); health care (8%); and education (4%). * This month the war in Iraq stays as the fourth important issue

Pollster John Zogby: “Kerry leads in the Blue States by 17 (54%-37%) while Bush leads in the Red States by 6 (47%-41%). Good news for the President: he is back to attracting 86% of Republicans, while Kerry gets 79% of the Democrats. However, Kerry leads 49% to 31% among Independents.

“Among the majority who say the country is headed on the wrong track, Kerry leads 84% to 5%, while Bush has the right direction voters 86% to 8%. In 1996, Bill Clinton led Bob Dole over both groups.

“Kerry leads among all age groups except 30-49 year olds, where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Catholics give Kerry a 50%-37% edge – numbers more similar to Clinton’s leads in 1992 and 1996 than Al Gore’s 51% to 46% margin in 2000. Protestants are for Bush (57% to 33%), especially on the strength of the President’s 68% to 20% margin among Born Again Protestants.

“Voters with active passports prefer Kerry 58% to 35%, while those without a passport are for Bush 48% to 39%. Union voters give Kerry a 22 point advantage – 55% to 33%.

“The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class – Kerry 45% to Bush’s 44%. Bush won this group by double digits in 2000. Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.

“Bush leads among men 46% to 43%, while Kerry leads among women 50% to 39%. Bush also leads among Northern Europeans 47% to 44% and Southern Europeans 52% to 47%. Kerry is ahead among Eastern Europeans 63% to 29%.

“Big city voters favor Kerry 58% to 36%, as do Suburban voters 49% to 41%, while small city voters are with Bush 52% to 38%. Bush leads Kerry among rural voters 42% to 39%.”

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1011 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Thursday, August 12 through Saturday, August 14. The margin of error is +/3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.


[ Click Here For Methodology ]


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: arab; badweighting; bagman; bs; democrat; mediaspin; poll; pollbias; polls; ratzogby; specialsauce; unfair; whatever; yeahright; zogby; zogsauce
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1 posted on 08/15/2004 12:26:18 PM PDT by areafiftyone
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To: areafiftyone

I was part of the Zogby poll and I guess they got tired of me saying that there was no way that I was going to change my vote from GW Bush. They dropped me this time.

The questions they ask are very slanted.


2 posted on 08/15/2004 12:29:11 PM PDT by afraidfortherepublic (Re-elect Dubya)
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To: areafiftyone

Zogby needs to get a real job.


3 posted on 08/15/2004 12:30:12 PM PDT by Palladin (Proud to be a FReeper!)
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To: areafiftyone

A little sauce applied to diminish the impact of the true Gallup poll...


4 posted on 08/15/2004 12:30:23 PM PDT by TheExploited (R-Illinois)
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To: TheExploited

Thats what I was thinking. I notice right after a poll comes out that is in favor of Bush Zogby has one favoring Kerry. Amazing!


5 posted on 08/15/2004 12:34:08 PM PDT by areafiftyone (Democrats = the hamster is dead but the wheel is still spinning)
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To: areafiftyone
Zogsauce claimed three months ago that Kerry would win. Now he has to keep spiting out these polls if he wants to maintain any credibility.
6 posted on 08/15/2004 12:34:08 PM PDT by COEXERJ145 (I Annoy Buchananites)
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To: areafiftyone

I see Zogby is calling on Saturday and is talking to likely voters as opposed to registered voters. Oh well, whatever you have to do to come up with Kerry ahead.


7 posted on 08/15/2004 12:35:01 PM PDT by hflynn
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To: TheExploited

Thats what I was thinking. I notice right after a poll comes out that is in favor of Bush Zogby has one favoring Kerry. Amazing!


8 posted on 08/15/2004 12:35:19 PM PDT by areafiftyone (Democrats = the hamster is dead but the wheel is still spinning)
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To: areafiftyone

i wouldnt believe Zogby if he had a poll saying 90% say

the sky is blue..

He is done as an objective pollster. NO credibility.


9 posted on 08/15/2004 12:37:56 PM PDT by kingattax
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To: areafiftyone
I'm also curious as to the breakdown of Dem, Rep, Other in this poll. I didn't see it listed here or on Zogsauce's website.
10 posted on 08/15/2004 12:39:02 PM PDT by COEXERJ145 (I Annoy Buchananites)
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Zogby polls are no longer reliable since he inserted himself into the story rather than reporting it.

Does he truly believe that his polls will taken as credible once he exposes his political bias on talks shows, forums, and in newspapers?


11 posted on 08/15/2004 12:39:57 PM PDT by BlackRain
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To: areafiftyone

Poll Puts Mondale Even With Reagan

By Norman D. Atkins Washington Post Staff Writer. The Washington Post (1974-Current file). Washington, D.C.: Jul 23, 1984. pg. A3, 1 pgs

    Democratic presidential nominee Walter F. Mondale, on a post-convention fishing vacation in Gunflint Lake, Minn., did not catch any fish but hauled in some good news yesterday from a poll that showed him pulling even with President Reagan.

Wait! There's more!

    New York Times, 7/26/88:

    In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll. This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

    Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.


12 posted on 08/15/2004 12:40:38 PM PDT by Nick Danger (www.swiftvets.com)
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To: All

I guess Zogby has to keep the DUers happy because of all that whining over the Gallop Poll.


13 posted on 08/15/2004 12:40:41 PM PDT by areafiftyone (Democrats = the hamster is dead but the wheel is still spinning)
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To: areafiftyone

Once the results are in may Zogby deserve a ZZZZZZZOT! and a shredding from the Viking Kitties!


14 posted on 08/15/2004 12:41:21 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country. What else needs to be said?)
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To: areafiftyone
Horse-pucky, pure horse-pucky ... Zogby, take your biased polling and stick it. By the way Zogby does the term "landslide" invoke fear? Well, get used to it come November when Bush kicks Kerry's butt every way but loose in the general election. Explain your polls then AH.
15 posted on 08/15/2004 12:41:29 PM PDT by BluH2o
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To: areafiftyone
This is only a measure of the leftists hatred of Bush - no one is for Kerry it seems - and BTW, why on earth would they be? He is a zero.
16 posted on 08/15/2004 12:42:43 PM PDT by austingirl
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To: areafiftyone
New Zogby Poll: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43%

Nice try, Zobgy.

17 posted on 08/15/2004 12:42:59 PM PDT by Right_in_Virginia
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To: areafiftyone

Well, Zogby is the one that said this was Kerry's race to lose. He is the one that said Kerry was strong in the South. He is the one that said 'his' people didn't like G.W. but were split in support of Kerry.

Even if his polling was shown to be conducted honorably, he has biased his results by his editorial comments. The results cannot be trusted due to his held bias.


18 posted on 08/15/2004 12:43:38 PM PDT by Soul Seeker
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To: Soul Seeker

yes, Kerry is strong in the South, South Iran, South Saudi Arabia, South Yemen, and so on.


19 posted on 08/15/2004 12:44:43 PM PDT by austingirl
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To: areafiftyone

Zogby sux sewer spew


20 posted on 08/15/2004 12:45:44 PM PDT by ThreePuttinDude (Cevapcici and Slivovitz......for everyone)
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To: areafiftyone

These polls flip flop more than kerry does. Best wait until November 3.


21 posted on 08/15/2004 12:46:51 PM PDT by ampat
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To: Soul Seeker

I have been participating in the Zogby poll for 3 months. The last one was my last after they included these types of questions (apparently the dem's have more time to take polls with useless questions):

What is more important to you - pro-life or pro-choice?

What is more important to you - pro-gun or gun control?

What is more important to you - gay rights or don't ask-don't tell?

Who would you most like to have a beer with - George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Do you more often drink Coke or Pepsi?

What is your astrological sign?

When viewing the world, do you look at things locally or globally?

What is more important to you - what is going on in Main Street or what is going on in Wall Street?

Where are you more likely to shop - Wal-Mart or JC Penney's

What is your favorite ice cream flavor - vanilla, chocolate, or strawberry?

Which one of the following brands of ice cream are you more likely to buy - Ben and Jerry's or Hagen Daas?

Do you consider yourself a dog person or a cat person?

Which of the following would you be more likely to order at a restaurant - steak, pasta, or salad?

Which channel do you watch most often for news - CNN, Fox, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS?

Where are you more likely to purchase coffee - Starbucks or Dunkin Donuts?

Where would you rather swim - in a pool or in a lake?

Who would you more likely vote for for president - the Tin Man, who is all brains and no heart or the Scarecrow, who is all heart and no brain?

Do you drive a foreign- or domestic-made car?

What is more important to you - working hard and fulfilling your responsibilities or doing things that give you joy or pleasure?

What is more important to you when you vote: your religion or ethnicity?

Do you prefer to read your news from the newspaper in print or on the Internet?

Do you prefer shopping at Wal-Mart, or at a third generation family-owned business?

Who do you think was the greatest President: George Washington or Abraham Lincoln?

Which of the following do you feel promotes a philosophy you identify with more: pro-private sector or pro- government sector

Have you seen the movie The Passion of the Christ?

Have you seen the movie Fahrenheit 911?

Which of the following do you support: pro-union or open shop?

Do you consider yourself to be pro-environment or pro-development?


22 posted on 08/15/2004 12:47:10 PM PDT by NDJeep
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To: ampat
These polls flip flop more than kerry does. Best wait until November 3.

Wait till November 1st. Zogsauce will do just like he did in 2000 and release a poll without his personal bias included. Then if he turns out to be right, everyone will shower him with praise for calling the election so precisely.

23 posted on 08/15/2004 12:48:54 PM PDT by COEXERJ145 (I Annoy Buchananites)
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To: COEXERJ145
I'm also curious as to the breakdown of Dem, Rep, Other in this poll.

It's better than most polls. If we treat each group as 1/3rd of the electorate, then the 18-point Kerry lead among independents would give Kerry a 6-point lead. Bush's 86% support among Republicans vs. Kerry's 79% support among Dems would lead to a net gain of 4% for Bush (that's a 7-point difference in margin among 2/3rds of the electorate, that's over 4 points in Bush's direction).

So without any weighting of Dems over Republicans, his poll should show a 2-point Kerry lead. It shows a 4-point lead, which indicates a slight imbalance in favor of the Dems. He probably polled about 4% more Dems than Republicans.

24 posted on 08/15/2004 12:48:54 PM PDT by Numbers Guy
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To: afraidfortherepublic

you know what is strange about it, is that i was part of this poll, but it was not a telephone poll. it was conducted on-line. i had signed up for their polls a long time ago and this was the first time they contacted me. they contacted me via email. i recognized the questions.


25 posted on 08/15/2004 12:50:09 PM PDT by republicangel
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To: Numbers Guy
We can only guess that though. Not showing the breakdown however casts a lot of doubt on any poll.
26 posted on 08/15/2004 12:50:13 PM PDT by COEXERJ145 (I Annoy Buchananites)
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To: COEXERJ145
We can only guess that though.

Actually it's not guesswork, just seat of the pants algebra. The only assumptions I had to make were 1) that the independents were about 1/3rd of the total and 2) that the total Kerry + Bush support among Dems (79% + whatever for Bush) was the same as the total Kerry + Bush (whatever for Kerry + 86%) support was among Republicans.

27 posted on 08/15/2004 12:53:10 PM PDT by Numbers Guy
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To: Numbers Guy

Pssst...if these "independents"
truly favor Kerry by 18%, then a
lot of them are LYING about being
indys & are, in reality, DEMS!

Whaddiyuh think about THAT???


28 posted on 08/15/2004 12:56:26 PM PDT by txrangerette
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To: Torie; ambrose; NYC Republican; Dales



@


29 posted on 08/15/2004 1:15:21 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: areafiftyone
I'd obviously much rather be ahead than behind right now, but four down in the Zogby poll immediately after the RAT convention isn't too bad a spot to be in.

If we are still trailing after our convention, then I will start to worry. Until then, W just needs to make sure his campaign stays on message and is as mistake-free as possible.

30 posted on 08/15/2004 1:18:05 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: RWR8189

@


31 posted on 08/15/2004 1:18:10 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: areafiftyone

Zogby is an Arab. He hates Bush and wants Kerry to win.

Osama is an Arab. He hates Bush and wants Kerry to win.

Zogby and Osama have never been seen in the same place at the same time.

Coincidence?

;)

d.o.l.

Criminal Number 18F


32 posted on 08/15/2004 1:22:39 PM PDT by Criminal Number 18F
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To: areafiftyone

"Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups".

Special Sauce?

Hmmmmm, uhhhhhh, riiiiiiight! I will believe Gallup myself; thank you very much!

LLS


33 posted on 08/15/2004 1:34:05 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("Yeah, what CHENEY said"!)
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To: areafiftyone; afraidfortherepublic; COEXERJ145; RWR8189; KQQL; comebacknewt; BluH2o; Palladin; ...

Yet another BOGUS Zogby poll -- weighted both to benefit Democrats and to counter the recent Gallup poll!!

If we examine the poll for trends only, however, it becomes apparent that the President's 'Zogby-sauced' ratings have improved since Zogby's last poll:

MATCH-UP
8/12-14/04 B/C 43% K/E 47% Nader 2%
7/26-29/04 B/C 41% K/E 46% Nader 3%

JOB APPROVAL
8/12-14/04 47% excellent/good 52% fair/poor
**(equivalent to a 53-54% approval rating for Gallup)
7/26-29/04 44% excellent/good 56% fair/poor


REMEMBER: The current goal of leftist pollsters (who now comprise approximately 95% of all pollsters) is to demoralize the President's base by making it appear as though he has no chance of winning -- all we have to do is 'name the game' and move on!!!


34 posted on 08/15/2004 1:49:15 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: areafiftyone


My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
------
Right now W's average approval ratings is 47.8 from last 10 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.

So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.

W/O Nader
Bush 48.3%
Kerry 50.6
Others 1.1

Bush 48.3
Kerry 49.5
Nader 1.3
Others 0.7

MOE+/-1%
----








35 posted on 08/15/2004 1:50:00 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: DrDeb

Per Zogby if you has a active Passport, you wouldn't be supporting W


36 posted on 08/15/2004 1:53:47 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: DrDeb

Per Zogby if you have an active Passport, you wouldn't be supporting W.

Travelers are smarter than non world travels...lol


37 posted on 08/15/2004 1:57:14 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: DrDeb
Per Zogby if you have an active Passport, you wouldn't be supporting W.

Travelers are smarter than non world travelers...lol
38 posted on 08/15/2004 1:57:28 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: areafiftyone

Sorry guys, but I just don't trust these Zogby polls for much. He's had Kerry up the whole year and now Kerry edges 47%-43%. Once upon a time people took Zogby really seriously (after his 1996 call). But, after his faulty calls in countless state polls, I just can't give him that much credit. As an Arab, he's hopelessly biased in Kerry's favor.

That said, I was encouraged to see the President's job approval ratings up in his poll (Gallup shows the Prez up to a 51% job approval rating).


39 posted on 08/15/2004 1:58:20 PM PDT by No Dems 2004
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To: afraidfortherepublic
With caller ID are polls becoming less valid??

Pray for W and Our Amazing Troops

40 posted on 08/15/2004 2:01:56 PM PDT by bray (Yaaaawn Tax , Tax , Tax & Kerry wants your paycheck!)
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To: areafiftyone
Does anyone know how a pollster determines who is a "likely voter" from a registered voter?

I've never seen an explainion or specific methodology from them. Do all pollsters use the same criteria to to determine likely voters, or does the criteria vary from pollster to pollster?

41 posted on 08/15/2004 2:08:44 PM PDT by demlosers
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To: areafiftyone
“The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class . . . Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.

That tells me everything I have to know about Zogby's poll. Are we really expected to believe that fully a third of people who "invested" now don't ("almost half" to 31% would be a third fewer "investors")? Even if people lost trust in the market and put their money *entirely* in government or corporate bonds, they would still be "investors." I suppose in Zogby's sample, a third has taken their money out of the market and put it in their mattress. (I could buy that a small percentage, say 5 or 10%, was so turned off by market losses and/or corporate shenanigans that they put their money in passbook savings accounts or their mattresses, but the idea that a third did is simply unbelievable.)

42 posted on 08/15/2004 2:11:59 PM PDT by HateBill (John Kerry -- the only hope for suicidal jihadists.)
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To: areafiftyone
GAWD, I'm so sick of the bastard mediaWHORES, the EVIL RATS, HELLywood, the freakin POLLS, the anti-bush crap...ughhhhh!! November can't come to soon for me!
43 posted on 08/15/2004 2:14:41 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: No Dems 2004
All these polls are so much bunk. All are subjective based on each polling organizations methods. I still think that they all have a hard time taking into account the new tech that is involved in making contact with the public. Cell phones are hard to poll. Caller ID and answering machines eliminate other potential polling subjects. Try as they might the poll takers cannot hope to get a true sample of any voting population. Also the number of R vs D vs I to include in a polling sample is all dependent on the who is doing the polling. The real key is the turnout and who will do the voting. The polls can try but can never really tell turnout. Let us all wait till Nov. 2 to see who will win . A lot can happen between now and then.
44 posted on 08/15/2004 2:14:53 PM PDT by Bombard
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To: Bombard

I have never in my life been polled. Not once.


45 posted on 08/15/2004 2:15:38 PM PDT by areafiftyone (Democrats = the hamster is dead but the wheel is still spinning)
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To: COEXERJ145

I don't trust Zogby anymore. He has a bad habit of making predictions about how his own polls will turn out; his claim three months ago was not an isolated experience.


46 posted on 08/15/2004 2:16:52 PM PDT by Sofa King (MY rights are not subject to YOUR approval http://No,www.angelfire.com/art2/sofaking/index.html)
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To: DrDeb
Thank you DrDeb for bring back some sanity into these BOGUS polls! The ULTIMATE poll is take in November!! Remember to vote twice...:)!
47 posted on 08/15/2004 2:20:23 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: RoseofTexas

oops..take should read TAKEN! :)


48 posted on 08/15/2004 2:21:01 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: areafiftyone

More of Zogby's BOGUS self-selecting internet poll. It's a disgrace that this is called a "poll."


49 posted on 08/15/2004 2:26:20 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news.)
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To: Nick Danger

I remember those polls. Reagan and Bush were finished. Great post.


50 posted on 08/15/2004 2:27:07 PM PDT by WalterSkinner
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