Post #40 makes a lot more sense to me; Someone off-handedly mentions Plame to Novak to explain how Wilson got the job. An error, but not a security violation, not mean-spirited, not vindictive, not vengeful. Novak sees a chance to be king of the hill and blabs...despite a CIA request that he not do so. That's believeable.
Another scenario which might emerge in the investigation is a pattern of entrapment in which members of the media - after the original Novak story, and possibly in cahoots with Wilson - tried to trick Bush administration members into making damaging statements about Wilson and/or Plame, to support the "outing" and "payback" themes.