Skip to comments.Kerry Slips Slightly as GOP Heads for NYC; Poll Finds Kerry's Lead Softening (internals)
Posted on 08/28/2004 1:53:17 PM PDT by ambrose
Saturday, Aug. 28, 2004
Kerry Slips Slightly as GOP Heads for NYC Poll Finds Kerry's Lead Softening
By MARK SCHULMAN
A new TIME poll finds President Bush heading into next week's Republican National Convention amid signs that his opponent's advantage is softening. Two weeks of John Kerry playing defense over his Vietnam record and relentless Republican attacks on what they characterize as his "flip-flopping" on Iraq appear to have taken a toll: President Bush now appears to be in a statistical dead-heat with Kerry in a three-way race among likely voters, with 46% backing Bush, 44% backing Kerry and 5% opting for Ralph Nader and 3% undecided. Immediately after the Democratic convention, Bush had trailed Kerry among likely voters by 48% - 43%, with Nader at 4%. Even if Nader were to drop out, a two-way race also finds Bush and Kerry neck-and-neck at 46% each.
One key indicator of Kerry's fortunes, his favorability rating, has dropped from 53% favorable - 29% unfavorable in early August to 44% favorable - 33% unfavorable today. More importantly, TIME's poll finds some fraying of Kerry's support at the edges. For example, coming out of the Boston Democratic Convention, Kerry's own supporters gave him a 91% favorability rating. That's dropped to 84% now.
The poll finds other worrisome signs for Kerry:
§ Kerry has lost his edge over Bush on who voters trust to manage the economy previously a bedrock Kerry lead. Kerry went from a 51% - 42% lead over Bush in early August to a 46% Kerry - 43% Bush near tie today.
§ Handling the Iraq situation went from a 44% Kerry - 46% Bush tie to a Bush lead, 41% Kerry - 49% Bush. This drop may have been caused when Kerry declared recently that he would vote "yes" again for Bush's resolution authorizing war, even though no weapons of mass destruction were found.
§ Kerry lost ground to Bush on who voters trust to be commander-in-chief. Kerry and Bush tied in early August, 47% for Kerry - 45% for Bush. Bush has now opened a lead here, 42% Kerry - 50% Bush.
§ Bush has lengthened his lead over Kerry in providing strong leadership in difficult times. Bush now leads 52% - 41% for Kerry. Bush's lead in early August was 48% - 43%.
§ Independents split almost evenly now between Kerry (43%) and Bush (42%). Three weeks ago, Kerry led Bush among independents 43% - 36%.
Can you imagine the tears at TIME when they published this ?
Did someone hear a giant sucking sound? Sounds like someone's letting the air out of Sen. Kerry's balloon.
The polls should be REALLY interesting one week from now.
"We've just got to roll up our sleeves and work harder to fool the people into thinking this guy is a valid candidate. Let's roll."
"Slightly" is a Time euphemism for "Look out below!"
Kerry seems like a brittle person. I don't think he's going to handle this news well. Look for him to lash out more when campaigning. Libs will love his anger, but it'll probably be a turn-off to others.
No media bias here, right? Here is an alternative explanation. Perhaps Americans want stronger U.S. military action against the bad guys in Iraq (e.g. Fallujah, Najaf, Al Sadr and his band of losers, etc.), and see Kerry as even less likely than Bush to deliver. I know I do. Or perhaps they are more concerned that Kerry will simply cut and run -- doing the American equivalent of what the Spanish did in response to the Madrid bombing a few months ago.
At the very least, one would think that Time could have cited data from its own poll in support of its explanation, instead of just making it up in the guise of reporting hard facts.
RATs are still rats, and they don't go down with the swift boat. If they're jumping ship now, it means that they see Kerry's position as untenable. Its just a matter of time before the rest of the country catches on, so they're distancing themselves early.
I have no doubt that they'll try and cover for Kerry as long as they can, but that cover will become less solid and frequent as Kerry's viability plummets.
46% backing Bush, 44% backing Kerry and 5% opting for Ralph Nader and 3% undecided
Guess it depends on your definition of Lead or Softening, another marvelous Clinton legacy.
What should one expect of a spineless jellyfish.
Now, am I missing something, or does that headline say Kerry's LEAD softening when BUSH HAS THE LEAD?????
A 'Howard Dean' moment during, say, the debates, would be a thing of beauty. President Bush has a wicked sense of humor when he's feeling confrontational, and if he pushes the right button, Kerry's head will explode on TV.
Slightly....the commies must be drinking kool aid again!!! I'd say Kerry's numbers have dropped like a led balloon.....I'm so happy the Republicans have now pulled out their really big guns....the firing is so loud it's deafening. I Love that team of Republicans...they're so fine!!!! The RATS are a bunch of bumbling idiots. We've got the Cowboys on our team...YES!!
I don't want to make the mistake of underestimating the opponent -- but it just seems to me that Kerry is going to be a terrible debater.
5% for Nader? WTF?!! I think Nader's numbers are inflated to make it look like Lurch hasn't reallllllllly lost that much ground! It's more like W/51 to K/44 and Nader/zippo, Nader doesn't even even registering on the radar! How do I know that, for months the pressWHORES have been telling us Nader ain't gonna get squat, and for some strange reason Nader is all of a sudden registering in all of today's polls...LAIRS! Softening my *ss!! Seems to me Lurch is in big doo-doo, and in a HUGH free fall!!! :)
I'm thinkin' some of this might be the result of the Swifties...
I love their soft language. "slips slightly", "softening". Sounds like its just a teeny-tiny fluctuation. If it were Bush in Kerri's place it would sound more like this, "Bush gets hammered by Swifties. Internals show doom and gloom for the embattled president. An anonymous insider says Bush on suicide watch."
You have the best set of quotes of any freeper bio. Nice compilation.
Yet the national radio news of last hour noted Kerry still holds a strong position in electoral college. Money Talk host also repeated same report.
Bush leads slightly in popular vote, while ol ace pollster Zogby says Kerry with electoral college lead.
I hope Zogby is as nuts on this one as his previous forecasts.
I am waiting for an Edmund Muskie moment.
So if Kerry wins the electoral votes and Bush the popular, does this mean we can act like complete jerks and count non-existent chads?
If Kerry wins, I hope they know that the dirty tricks, Senate games, and nastiness toward President Bush is not and will not be forgotten.
"Not my president" can go for the Kerry camp too.
I used to trust Kerry to effectively manage his PR, but he's doing a terrible job of that now. I'm trying to think of what I can trust him to do. Oh yeah! Take the most liberal position on any given issue, and remain a stranger to the truth.
Ya know whats sad? George Bush has stayed away from the Swift Boat ads that are kiling Kerry's chances, Kerry started this with his constant bragging of his Viet Nam service, Kerry has been caught in his lies. But even so after all is said and done the Democrats will blame it on George Bush and accuse him of personally destroying Kerry.
Even though Kerry did it to himself.
Yes. Kerry's advantage is at negative two in this poll.
No kidding! When I saw the headline, I thought sure this was one poll that still showed Kerry ahead. These people are a sick joke.
2) Check out this column from September 2000 analyzing the poll results from 1996 by Gerald Wasserman: "Were the Polls Right? No. Only Once in 4,900 Elections Would Chance Alone Produce Such Failures."
President Bush is AHEAD, yet they say Kerry's "advantage is softening."
Nope, no bias here folks. Nothing to see. Move along, now...
What wimpy words. Kerry "sips slightly". His lead is "softening". Such delicate, feminine words are very appropriate for John Heinz Kerry.
Rasmussen and Tradesports.com both have Bush up in EVs --
The former has Bush up 220/210 (rest in tossup),Tradesports has Bush up 384/354.
Net gain of 7 point for Bush, but a "slight slide" according to Time. Looks major to me.
LOL, me too.
I'm hoping there's a sizable amount of sheeple who've finally noticed that the MSM are completely biased this election cycle.
Maybe it's time for MAMA-T to put in a few more appearances for her husband. Bwaa-ha-ha! (She is fun to watch, though.)
But I still have to register my astonishment.
My last copy of Time was their anti-gun issue 25 years ago.
I stuck with them a little longer than that (I'm not as smart as you are), but 10 or 15 years ago, after subscribing to that "magazine" for years, I told them never to desecrate my home again with that propaganda rag. They didn't. It's never been my home since.
Unlike four years ago, there is no Nader sentiment out there at all. In fact, Nader is a pariah in the liberal camp in much the same way Ross Perot has become a pariah among conservatives. The liberals see Nader as the reason Bush is president today just as we saw Perot as being the reason Clinton was elected.