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Kerry Slips Slightly as GOP Heads for NYC; Poll Finds Kerry's Lead Softening (internals)
Time Magazine ^ | 8-28-04

Posted on 08/28/2004 1:53:17 PM PDT by ambrose

Saturday, Aug. 28, 2004

Kerry Slips Slightly as GOP Heads for NYC Poll Finds Kerry's Lead Softening

By MARK SCHULMAN

A new TIME poll finds President Bush heading into next week's Republican National Convention amid signs that his opponent's advantage is softening. Two weeks of John Kerry playing defense over his Vietnam record and relentless Republican attacks on what they characterize as his "flip-flopping" on Iraq appear to have taken a toll: President Bush now appears to be in a statistical dead-heat with Kerry in a three-way race among likely voters, with 46% backing Bush, 44% backing Kerry and 5% opting for Ralph Nader and 3% undecided. Immediately after the Democratic convention, Bush had trailed Kerry among likely voters by 48% - 43%, with Nader at 4%. Even if Nader were to drop out, a two-way race also finds Bush and Kerry neck-and-neck at 46% each.

One key indicator of Kerry's fortunes, his favorability rating, has dropped from 53% favorable - 29% unfavorable in early August to 44% favorable - 33% unfavorable today. More importantly, TIME's poll finds some fraying of Kerry's support at the edges. For example, coming out of the Boston Democratic Convention, Kerry's own supporters gave him a 91% favorability rating. That's dropped to 84% now.

The poll finds other worrisome signs for Kerry:

§ Kerry has lost his edge over Bush on who voters trust to manage the economy —previously a bedrock Kerry lead. Kerry went from a 51% - 42% lead over Bush in early August to a 46% Kerry - 43% Bush near tie today.

§ Handling the Iraq situation went from a 44% Kerry - 46% Bush tie to a Bush lead, 41% Kerry - 49% Bush. This drop may have been caused when Kerry declared recently that he would vote "yes" again for Bush's resolution authorizing war, even though no weapons of mass destruction were found.

§ Kerry lost ground to Bush on who voters trust to be commander-in-chief. Kerry and Bush tied in early August, 47% for Kerry - 45% for Bush. Bush has now opened a lead here, 42% Kerry - 50% Bush.

§ Bush has lengthened his lead over Kerry in providing strong leadership in difficult times. Bush now leads 52% - 41% for Kerry. Bush's lead in early August was 48% - 43%.

§ Independents split almost evenly now between Kerry (43%) and Bush (42%). Three weeks ago, Kerry led Bush among independents 43% - 36%.

-snip-


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; polls

1 posted on 08/28/2004 1:53:17 PM PDT by ambrose
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To: ambrose

Can you imagine the tears at TIME when they published this ?


2 posted on 08/28/2004 1:54:46 PM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: ambrose

Did someone hear a giant sucking sound? Sounds like someone's letting the air out of Sen. Kerry's balloon.


3 posted on 08/28/2004 1:54:48 PM PDT by Steel Wolf (Don't make me roll initiative...!)
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To: ambrose

The polls should be REALLY interesting one week from now.


heheheh.


4 posted on 08/28/2004 1:56:23 PM PDT by EggsAckley (........."YO" is "OY" spelled backwards.........)
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To: ambrose

Flip-flopping?

http://www.georgewbush.com/olympics


5 posted on 08/28/2004 1:57:04 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Can you imagine the tears at TIME when they published this ?

"We've just got to roll up our sleeves and work harder to fool the people into thinking this guy is a valid candidate. Let's roll."

6 posted on 08/28/2004 1:57:48 PM PDT by John Thornton
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Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

To: ambrose

"Slightly" is a Time euphemism for "Look out below!"


8 posted on 08/28/2004 1:58:09 PM PDT by Radix (John Kerry is finally not going to do a 180, especially when it comes to releasing his form 180!)
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To: ambrose
I just love the headlines the MSM use when things are going badly for their boy; "the empty glass is overflowing with wine and honey". I smell fear and desperation emanating from the Rats.
9 posted on 08/28/2004 2:00:16 PM PDT by crazyhorse691 (I volunteer to instruct JFK on the meaning of a purple heart!!)
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To: Steel Wolf

Kerry seems like a brittle person. I don't think he's going to handle this news well. Look for him to lash out more when campaigning. Libs will love his anger, but it'll probably be a turn-off to others.


10 posted on 08/28/2004 2:00:44 PM PDT by 68skylark
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To: ambrose
§ Handling the Iraq situation went from a 44% Kerry - 46% Bush tie to a Bush lead, 41% Kerry - 49% Bush. This drop may have been caused when Kerry declared recently that he would vote "yes" again for Bush's resolution authorizing war, even though no weapons of mass destruction were found.

No media bias here, right? Here is an alternative explanation. Perhaps Americans want stronger U.S. military action against the bad guys in Iraq (e.g. Fallujah, Najaf, Al Sadr and his band of losers, etc.), and see Kerry as even less likely than Bush to deliver. I know I do. Or perhaps they are more concerned that Kerry will simply cut and run -- doing the American equivalent of what the Spanish did in response to the Madrid bombing a few months ago.

At the very least, one would think that Time could have cited data from its own poll in support of its explanation, instead of just making it up in the guise of reporting hard facts.

11 posted on 08/28/2004 2:01:44 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Can you imagine the tears at TIME when they published this ?

RATs are still rats, and they don't go down with the swift boat. If they're jumping ship now, it means that they see Kerry's position as untenable. Its just a matter of time before the rest of the country catches on, so they're distancing themselves early.

I have no doubt that they'll try and cover for Kerry as long as they can, but that cover will become less solid and frequent as Kerry's viability plummets.

12 posted on 08/28/2004 2:02:13 PM PDT by Steel Wolf (Don't make me roll initiative...!)
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To: ambrose
Kerry Slips Slightly as GOP Heads for NYC Poll Finds Kerry's Lead Softening

46% backing Bush, 44% backing Kerry and 5% opting for Ralph Nader and 3% undecided

Guess it depends on your definition of Lead or Softening, another marvelous Clinton legacy.

13 posted on 08/28/2004 2:04:18 PM PDT by Joe Miner
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To: ambrose
Poll Finds Kerry's Lead Softening (internals)

What should one expect of a spineless jellyfish.

14 posted on 08/28/2004 2:04:30 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative (Do not remove this tag under penalty of law.)
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To: ambrose

Now, am I missing something, or does that headline say Kerry's LEAD softening when BUSH HAS THE LEAD?????


15 posted on 08/28/2004 2:05:09 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news.)
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To: 68skylark
Kerry seems like a brittle person. I don't think he's going to handle this news well. Look for him to lash out more when campaigning. Libs will love his anger, but it'll probably be a turn-off to others.

A 'Howard Dean' moment during, say, the debates, would be a thing of beauty. President Bush has a wicked sense of humor when he's feeling confrontational, and if he pushes the right button, Kerry's head will explode on TV.

16 posted on 08/28/2004 2:06:30 PM PDT by Steel Wolf (Don't make me roll initiative...!)
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To: ambrose

Slightly....the commies must be drinking kool aid again!!! I'd say Kerry's numbers have dropped like a led balloon.....I'm so happy the Republicans have now pulled out their really big guns....the firing is so loud it's deafening. I Love that team of Republicans...they're so fine!!!! The RATS are a bunch of bumbling idiots. We've got the Cowboys on our team...YES!!


17 posted on 08/28/2004 2:07:17 PM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: Radix
"Slightly" is a Time euphemism for "Look out below!"

ROTFLMAO!!

18 posted on 08/28/2004 2:08:30 PM PDT by teletech (Friends don't let friends vote DemocRAT!)
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To: Steel Wolf
Yeah, it's hard to imagine what the debates are going to be like. It's tempting to say that Bush is going to totally dominate -- the way he dominated Gore -- because of his good humor and superior skills.

I don't want to make the mistake of underestimating the opponent -- but it just seems to me that Kerry is going to be a terrible debater.

19 posted on 08/28/2004 2:14:29 PM PDT by 68skylark
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Things must be grim for Kerry if a Democrat propaganda organ like Time magazine can bring itself to publish something like this.
20 posted on 08/28/2004 2:16:58 PM PDT by Savage Beast (Kerry: the first self-confessed war criminal to be nominated for president. ~Mark Steyn)
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To: ambrose

5% for Nader? WTF?!! I think Nader's numbers are inflated to make it look like Lurch hasn't reallllllllly lost that much ground! It's more like W/51 to K/44 and Nader/zippo, Nader doesn't even even registering on the radar! How do I know that, for months the pressWHORES have been telling us Nader ain't gonna get squat, and for some strange reason Nader is all of a sudden registering in all of today's polls...LAIRS! Softening my *ss!! Seems to me Lurch is in big doo-doo, and in a HUGH free fall!!! :)


21 posted on 08/28/2004 2:18:03 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: ambrose
Bush has lengthened his lead over Kerry in providing strong leadership in difficult times. Bush now leads 52% - 41% for Kerry. Bush's lead in early August was 48% - 43%.

I'm thinkin' some of this might be the result of the Swifties...

22 posted on 08/28/2004 2:20:35 PM PDT by aBootes
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To: ambrose
"Pres. Bush takes lead in latest poll". These are the words Time Inc. dares not speak!!
23 posted on 08/28/2004 2:22:07 PM PDT by 6SJ7
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To: LS
Now, don't go gittin logical on us!

A_R

24 posted on 08/28/2004 2:24:36 PM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: ambrose

I love their soft language. "slips slightly", "softening". Sounds like its just a teeny-tiny fluctuation. If it were Bush in Kerri's place it would sound more like this, "Bush gets hammered by Swifties. Internals show doom and gloom for the embattled president. An anonymous insider says Bush on suicide watch."


25 posted on 08/28/2004 2:29:11 PM PDT by mlbford2 ("sycophantic kerry koolaid sucker" -- S. Hannity)
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To: shield

You have the best set of quotes of any freeper bio. Nice compilation.


26 posted on 08/28/2004 2:29:57 PM PDT by LongsforReagan (Democrats =Girly Men)
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To: ambrose

Yet the national radio news of last hour noted Kerry still holds a strong position in electoral college. Money Talk host also repeated same report.

Bush leads slightly in popular vote, while ol ace pollster Zogby says Kerry with electoral college lead.

I hope Zogby is as nuts on this one as his previous forecasts.


27 posted on 08/28/2004 2:31:54 PM PDT by petertare (truth, justice and the American way)
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To: 68skylark
Kerry seems like a brittle person. I don't think he's going to handle this news well. Look for him to lash out more when campaigning.

I am waiting for an Edmund Muskie moment.

28 posted on 08/28/2004 2:36:15 PM PDT by Inyokern
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To: Darth Reagan

poll ping


29 posted on 08/28/2004 2:41:51 PM PDT by marblehead17 (I love it when a plan comes together.)
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To: petertare

So if Kerry wins the electoral votes and Bush the popular, does this mean we can act like complete jerks and count non-existent chads?

If Kerry wins, I hope they know that the dirty tricks, Senate games, and nastiness toward President Bush is not and will not be forgotten.

"Not my president" can go for the Kerry camp too.


30 posted on 08/28/2004 2:43:30 PM PDT by OpusatFR (President Bush will win 2004.)
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To: 68skylark
Kerry has been honing his skills as a debater since his prep school days.

What will screw him up is that he has no core. He's a dancer and Bush will nail him.
31 posted on 08/28/2004 2:53:42 PM PDT by Beckwith (Did Kerry commit murder in Viet Nam?)
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To: ambrose

I used to trust Kerry to effectively manage his PR, but he's doing a terrible job of that now. I'm trying to think of what I can trust him to do. Oh yeah! Take the most liberal position on any given issue, and remain a stranger to the truth.


32 posted on 08/28/2004 2:53:57 PM PDT by PeoplesRepublicOfWashington (Kerry lied while good men died.)
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To: ambrose

Ya know whats sad? George Bush has stayed away from the Swift Boat ads that are kiling Kerry's chances, Kerry started this with his constant bragging of his Viet Nam service, Kerry has been caught in his lies. But even so after all is said and done the Democrats will blame it on George Bush and accuse him of personally destroying Kerry.

Even though Kerry did it to himself.


33 posted on 08/28/2004 2:57:10 PM PDT by sgtbono2002 (I aint wrong, I aint sorry , and I am probably going to do it again.)
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To: ambrose
A new TIME poll finds President Bush heading into next week's Republican National Convention amid signs that his opponent's advantage is softening. Two weeks of John Kerry playing defense over his Vietnam record and relentless Republican attacks on what they characterize as his "flip-flopping" on Iraq appear to have taken a toll: President Bush now appears to be in a statistical dead-heat with Kerry in a three-way race among likely voters, with 46% backing Bush, 44% backing Kerry and 5% opting for Ralph Nader and 3% undecided.

Yes. Kerry's advantage is at negative two in this poll.

34 posted on 08/28/2004 2:58:12 PM PDT by VadeRetro
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To: LongsforReagan

Thank you!


35 posted on 08/28/2004 2:58:30 PM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: Joe Miner
Guess it depends on your definition of Lead or Softening, another marvelous Clinton legacy.

No kidding! When I saw the headline, I thought sure this was one poll that still showed Kerry ahead. These people are a sick joke.

36 posted on 08/28/2004 3:00:52 PM PDT by madprof98
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To: petertare
1) "Ace" Pollster Zogby hasn't done a real poll yet this year. His stuff is all this unreliable interactive crap.

2) Check out this column from September 2000 analyzing the poll results from 1996 by Gerald Wasserman: "Were the Polls Right? No. Only Once in 4,900 Elections Would Chance Alone Produce Such Failures."

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a39c3ed7a745e.htm

37 posted on 08/28/2004 3:14:04 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news.)
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To: ambrose
President Bush now appears to be in a statistical dead-heat with Kerry in a three-way race among likely voters, with 46% backing Bush, 44% backing Kerry and 5% opting for Ralph Nader

President Bush is AHEAD, yet they say Kerry's "advantage is softening."

Nope, no bias here folks. Nothing to see. Move along, now...

38 posted on 08/28/2004 3:50:54 PM PDT by TheBigB (Sure wish -I- had one'a them anti-shrew barrels...)
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To: ambrose

What wimpy words. Kerry "sips slightly". His lead is "softening". Such delicate, feminine words are very appropriate for John Heinz Kerry.


39 posted on 08/28/2004 4:01:33 PM PDT by Joann37
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To: ambrose
Bush 46%, Kerry 44% = "Kerry's Lead Softening".

Huh?

40 posted on 08/28/2004 4:14:01 PM PDT by Reverend Bob (Pawlenty/Rice 2008)
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To: petertare

Rasmussen and Tradesports.com both have Bush up in EVs --
The former has Bush up 220/210 (rest in tossup),Tradesports has Bush up 384/354.


41 posted on 08/28/2004 4:16:15 PM PDT by stands2reason (RICH LIBERAL n. - a man who has his cake, eats his cake, and complains that other people have cake.)
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To: stands2reason

Net gain of 7 point for Bush, but a "slight slide" according to Time. Looks major to me.


42 posted on 08/28/2004 4:30:45 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: madprof98

LOL, me too.

I'm hoping there's a sizable amount of sheeple who've finally noticed that the MSM are completely biased this election cycle.



43 posted on 08/28/2004 4:31:56 PM PDT by stands2reason (RICH LIBERAL n. - a man who has his cake, eats his cake, and complains that other people have cake.)
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To: ambrose

Maybe it's time for MAMA-T to put in a few more appearances for her husband. Bwaa-ha-ha! (She is fun to watch, though.)


44 posted on 08/28/2004 5:02:17 PM PDT by NYS_Eric
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To: TheBigB
Well, I'm not the first on this thread to notice this unmitigated bias.

But I still have to register my astonishment.

45 posted on 08/28/2004 5:08:07 PM PDT by daler
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To: Savage Beast

My last copy of Time was their anti-gun issue 25 years ago.


46 posted on 08/29/2004 6:04:26 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

I stuck with them a little longer than that (I'm not as smart as you are), but 10 or 15 years ago, after subscribing to that "magazine" for years, I told them never to desecrate my home again with that propaganda rag. They didn't. It's never been my home since.


47 posted on 08/29/2004 6:40:45 AM PDT by Savage Beast (Kerry: the first self-confessed war criminal to be nominated for president. ~Mark Steyn)
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To: RoseofTexas
I don't buy the 5% Nader vote either. No doubt the pollsters have found a way to "park" some of the votes Kerry lost in the Nader column.

Unlike four years ago, there is no Nader sentiment out there at all. In fact, Nader is a pariah in the liberal camp in much the same way Ross Perot has become a pariah among conservatives. The liberals see Nader as the reason Bush is president today just as we saw Perot as being the reason Clinton was elected.

48 posted on 08/29/2004 6:48:45 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (Bush 53%)
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To: Savage Beast
I still get their solicitations every few months. I always return the empty pre-paid envelopes to Boone, Iowa, or wherever it is they've set up a mail drop.
49 posted on 08/29/2004 6:51:49 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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